Comments on: Who’s the best #8 seed for the Caps?

By: jimmy

jimmy — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 19:31:07 +0000

FYI — GF is “Goals For” not “Goals Finished”. Entertaining site, keep it up

By: Russian Machine Never Breaks

Russian Machine Never Breaks — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 17:25:49 +0000

@Chris: BOS is 7 for 14 (.500) since Savard went down and .461 win % for the season. They also scored 2.5 GF with 2.6 GA before he went down and 2.6 GF and 1.9 GA since. Don’t see the numbers confirming your thoughts.

I agree intuitively BOS seems like the team we want, but the reality still points to NYR.

(Neil)

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 15:41:27 +0000

You use season-long numbers for each team, but Boston is significantly weaker now than they were before Savard went down.

By: Russian Machine Never Breaks

Russian Machine Never Breaks — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 15:27:50 +0000

Thanks for the feedback.

NYR being the “better bet” is driven by:

1. The playoff structure of 2-2-1-1-1.
2. BOS having a better win expectation on the road than they do at home.

Someone posted on FB last night:

“The Caps can’t afford to play a seven game series in the first round. Their best bet is to face a team without a lights out goaltender and roll them in 4 or 5.”

Statistically BOS has the best chance at being swept (16.4%) which is only slightly more than NYR (16.2%) but way more than PHI (14.27%). In a 5 game series, best chance at winning is against NYR (26%) making the NYR the best bet for a short (4- or 5-game) series.

(Neil)

By: DKelly

DKelly — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 14:14:59 +0000

I would still take the Bruins. There is less than 1% difference in the odds between BOS and NYR, and Lundqvist is more that capable of stealing a game or two and make the statistical difference irrelevant. Neither team scores much but BOS is much more likely to spring a leak in goal.

By: CapsBlog

CapsBlog — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 13:18:49 +0000

Good work on digging up all of the numbers.

However, the Rangers aren’t the team we want to play. They are basically the same team as last year that pushed our series to 7 games, except for the fact that they have Marion Gaborik this year, a perennial 40-50 goal scorer. If they had him last year, they probably would have beaten us. Varly held us in that series, and I think if they had Gaborik last year it would’ve pushed the NYR over the top and past us into the second round.

I still feel that the Bruins are the best team for us to play. A perfect match for us. Without Savard they can barely score. I know defense wins championships, but this Bruins team doesn’t nearly have enough offense to contend with the Caps.

2nd to the Bruins, I’d pick the Flyers just based on the fact of how weak their goaltending is. For a high-flying offensive team such as the Caps, it would be another perfect match.

By: Josh

Josh — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 03:00:22 +0000

Seeing as how we play Boston two times in the last week of regular season, I’m not sure if it would be good to immediately meet them again to start the playoffs. Then again, it may provide an advantage. All I know is that whoever it is, should be a hell of a series.