“Is it October yet?” takes a back seat to “Is it Draft Day yet?” for us Fantasy Hockey poolies. We eagerly wait to draft Ovechkin or any other Capitals our forwards, defensemen and goaltenders and trash talk our way to victory! However, one player’s value seems to be fairly uncertain: Alexander Semin. ESPN has him ranked as the 8th best player overall for your fantasy team, while Yahoo’s Puck Daddy ranks him 33rd. We here at RMNB try to answer the most important question facing you on draft day: What is Semin worth in fantasy hockey?
Coming up with a draft list for a fantasy hockey league takes planning and some tempered expectations. If you give-in to impulses, you’ll find yourself in trouble. And by the end of the draft, make sure you have drafted well enough to get quality players at each position. If not, you will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
The league you are playing in will determine a large part of the value. For instance, most leagues count goals, assists and points – categories which Semin performs well in year after year. If your league also counts Power Play Points and/or shots on goal then Semin’s value could increase depending on roster sizes and number of teams in the league. However, being ranked 8th or 33rd leaves a lot of room for error, so let’s see if we can narrow that down a bit.
We will use stats from the last three years to determine Sasha’s initial value and then make some projections for age/linemates/playing time to determine where he could rank in league that uses the following structure:
- “Snake draft” format
- 10 Teams
- Roster of C,C,LW,LW,RW,RW,D,D,D,D,G,G + 8 bench players
- Skater categories of: Goals, Assists, Points, Plus/Minus, PIMs
- Goalie categories of: Wins, Save %, GAA % and Shutouts
If you’re thinking: Semin cleans up in most of those categories you are correct, which is why when we look at the Top 15 rankings below we side more with ESPN than Yahoo’s ranking:
Semin comes out ahead of some other high profile skaters, such as Ilya Kovalchuk (who may be playing in the KHL) and reigning Hart Trophy Winner Henrik Sedin. He even ranks higher than Steven Stamkos and Zack Parise. Now you see why it is called fantasy hockey.
Whether he is taken 8th or 33rd in your draft one thing is for certain: With Ovechkin, Backstrom and Greenlife52 in the Top 10, expect Alex Semin to make a major impact to any fantasy squad in 2010-11. And maybe the Capitals too.