Flash Scoring 65 Points? Take The Under

Caps Fleischmann at 2010 Training Camp

Tomas Fleischmann is the front runner to center the Caps second line between Brooks Laich and Alexander Semin this coming season, which has the fantasy guys at THN claiming he will likely get 65 points whether he plays wing or center. Like I said: fantasy.

There is no doubt Flash had a good campaign last year racking up a career high of 51 points – but that came with a shooting percentage of 19% which is unlikely to be repeated.

That’s because puck possession is a skill while actually scoring the goals is mostly luck. This is why we see no consistency in individual shooting percentage year after year.

In fact, if we look at all the forwards who played more than 20 games since the lockout to 2008-9 that shot 19% or better, we can see how difficult it is to repeat.

Event GP G A PTS S S%
Players who shot 19%+ since lockout 75 30 33 63 144 21.1
Same players the following year 76 22 34 56 166 13.8

As a group they take 15% more shots (166 vs 144) the next year but end up with 26% less goals (22 vs 30) on average. Plus, there was only one repeat performer in the group: Alex Tanguay, who potted 23.2% of his shots in 2005-6 then followed up with 20.6% in 2007.

I say Fleischmann regresses back to 13-14% shooting and ends up with about 25 goals. What do you think?

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  • BobbyG

    Fantasy? What are the guys at THN smoking?

    Time for a reality check. Take the way…way…way…down under, as far as the hockey equivalent of Australia. What do I think? I predict Flash to hit the back of the net at about 1/3 the number the THN fantasy guys are claiming, and will end up with 22 goals, which is in Neil Greenberg’s more affordable–and achievable–neighborhood.

  • Tim

    Flash should be good for 20-25 goals. His points might be higher due to centering Semin and Laich, but it will be an increase in assists.

  • breaklance

    Flash plays 2c most of the year he could easily reach 50 points. 20-28 goals.

    So far he is on pace for 164 goals via 1 preseason game haha

  • DKVA

    Read the article, they project 65 points not 65 goals, so it is more realistic to imagine 25 goals and 40 assits if he can handle the 2nd C position all season.

  • BobbyG

    Thanks DKVA for the correction. What was I smoking? LOL!

    65 POINTS, of which 22 are goals, is a very realistic number for Flash.

  • Pat

    65 points is a very realistic number for Flash; I see Semin getting 35-40 goals, and Brooksie will most definitely break 30!

  • congero

    Only it seems using guys who shot 19% or better is a pretty small and extreme sample. Clearly very few would repeat that number so it doesn’t prove much. I wouldn’t discount his 19% as pure luck given the decent number of shots over the year. To me it proves he is an accurate shooter. Even if he regresses to 14%, that would still be an excellent percentage and well within his reach.

  • Fingers crossed I’m right…Flash ends up with around 20 goals since the Capitals acquire a good second line center (bumping Flash to the third line and/or to another team).

  • CapsFan1975

    On Flash, on the one hand, his shooting percentage will likely go down from 14%. On the other hand, if he plays in more games, which is very likely, considering he missed the entire first month of last season due to his deep vein thrombosis, he should at least equal last year’s productivity with a “normal” shooting percentage, given that he’s usually on the 2nd line. (He’ll probably have a fair number of assists to Semin & Laich, or even to Fehr,)

  • Neil – RMNB

    @congero: If it was skill then we would see more people repeat. The fact that only Tanguay has repeated since the lockout indicates that either Tanguay is a very gifted shooter OR extremely lucky. And by “gifted” I mean takes high quality shots consistently.

    @capsfan1975: 65 points for Flash would mean he has ~30 Goals (based on his G/A ratio). At a 14% Shooting% he would have to take 200+ shots – good for 5th place on the Caps last year. 230 shots if his Shoot% is 13%. Where do those shots come from? At whose expense? All Top6 forwards can’t take 200+ shots over the course of a season.

    I just don’t see the math working.

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