Comments on: Flash Scoring 65 Points? Take The Under

By: Can Alex Semin Score 40 Goals Again in 2010-11?

Can Alex Semin Score 40 Goals Again in 2010-11? — Sun, 26 Sep 2010 22:54:03 +0000

[...] now – and along with Tomas Fleischmann who some think will score 65 points this year – we think you should take the under. Related posts:Wednesday Webhits: How Many Career Goals Can AO [...]

By: Neil - RMNB

Neil - RMNB — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:20:12 +0000

@congero: If it was skill then we would see more people repeat. The fact that only Tanguay has repeated since the lockout indicates that either Tanguay is a very gifted shooter OR extremely lucky. And by “gifted” I mean takes high quality shots consistently.

@capsfan1975: 65 points for Flash would mean he has ~30 Goals (based on his G/A ratio). At a 14% Shooting% he would have to take 200+ shots – good for 5th place on the Caps last year. 230 shots if his Shoot% is 13%. Where do those shots come from? At whose expense? All Top6 forwards can’t take 200+ shots over the course of a season.

I just don’t see the math working.

By: CapsFan1975

CapsFan1975 — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 21:42:56 +0000

On Flash, on the one hand, his shooting percentage will likely go down from 14%. On the other hand, if he plays in more games, which is very likely, considering he missed the entire first month of last season due to his deep vein thrombosis, he should at least equal last year’s productivity with a “normal” shooting percentage, given that he’s usually on the 2nd line. (He’ll probably have a fair number of assists to Semin & Laich, or even to Fehr,)

By: RedArmyLine

RedArmyLine — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 18:31:31 +0000

Fingers crossed I’m right…Flash ends up with around 20 goals since the Capitals acquire a good second line center (bumping Flash to the third line and/or to another team).

By: congero

congero — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 17:19:35 +0000

Only it seems using guys who shot 19% or better is a pretty small and extreme sample. Clearly very few would repeat that number so it doesn’t prove much. I wouldn’t discount his 19% as pure luck given the decent number of shots over the year. To me it proves he is an accurate shooter. Even if he regresses to 14%, that would still be an excellent percentage and well within his reach.

By: Pat

Pat — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 17:06:15 +0000

65 points is a very realistic number for Flash; I see Semin getting 35-40 goals, and Brooksie will most definitely break 30!

By: BobbyG

BobbyG — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:41:34 +0000

Thanks DKVA for the correction. What was I smoking? LOL!

65 POINTS, of which 22 are goals, is a very realistic number for Flash.

By: DKVA

DKVA — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:29:06 +0000

Read the article, they project 65 points not 65 goals, so it is more realistic to imagine 25 goals and 40 assits if he can handle the 2nd C position all season.

By: breaklance

breaklance — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:42:51 +0000

Flash plays 2c most of the year he could easily reach 50 points. 20-28 goals.

So far he is on pace for 164 goals via 1 preseason game haha

By: Tim

Tim — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 02:39:58 +0000

Flash should be good for 20-25 goals. His points might be higher due to centering Semin and Laich, but it will be an increase in assists.