Caps Scoring Chances thru Oct 16, 2010

jeff-schultz-slapshot

Photo Credit: Elsa/Getty Images

With five games in the books, I survived my first week of logging scoring chances, including DVRing the game Saturday night and catching up Sunday. If you haven’t read it already, my first post explains what I consider a scoring chance. As always, you can see this spreadsheet on Google Docs where I update them every week.

The Caps are getting their money’s worth for Jeff Schultz, who hasn’t had a goal against yet – and that includes leading the Caps in PK minutes with only allwoing a paltry three scoring chances against a man down. When he signed the contract extension this summer, I wrote Schultz could be “one of the NHL’s best bargains two to four years from now. If not sooner.” So far, so good.

On the flipside we have John Erskine, who is the only Capital with a negative scoring chance differential in double digits. Put another way, the Caps give the opposition 2.5 more scoring chances for every 15 minutes Erskine is on the ice. Some of this can be explained because he is being used mostly in the defensive zone as Coach Bodreau’s shutdown blueliner. When John Carlson, the other half of this new shutdown pair is only a minus 2, what explains the rest of it?

Backstrom is struggling to get points at 5v5 (only 1 assist through 5 games) despite having the best scoring chance differential per 15 min of ice time (SC +/- per 15) for all Washington forwards. I consider scoring chance differential a leading indicator (more chances = more points), so the boxcar stats will come (unless Holly is thinking of trading him to me in our fantasy league — in which case: it’s going to be a loooong season for the Swede.)

Looks like logging each game is (finally?) showing Boyd Gordon does all the little things that help the team get scoring chances 5v5 – second to Backstrom among forwards. Worth the $800k so far.

The team has lit the lamp 45% of the 5v5 scoring chances when Hockey Hero Brooks Laich is on the ice. It’s been a strong couple of games (3G/2A/5P) for everyone’s favorite tire changer. Just in time for him to be a UFA this summer. Crap.

Player 5v5 TOI SC+/- per 15min PP TOI PP SCF/2min PK TOI PK SCA/2min
Jeff Schultz 89.7 0.84 2.0 0.0 14.9 0.4
Nicklas Backstrom 75.6 0.60 22.7 1.7 7.0 0.3
Boyd Gordon 36.6 0.41 1.5 1.3 9.7 0.6
Eric Fehr 49.0 0.31 14.4 1.4 0.0 0.0
DJ King 4.7 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Karl Alzner 70.9 (0.21) 3.6 0.0 4.9 1.2
Matt Hendricks 41.8 (0.36) 0.4 0.0 8.9 0.5
Alex Ovechkin 80.8 (0.37) 29.3 1.7 1.3 0.0
John Carlson 77.9 (0.39) 10.1 2.0 9.7 1.2
Tyler Sloan 37.5 (0.40) 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.8
Tomas Fleischmann 54.8 (0.55) 16.4 1.0 2.7 0.7
David Steckel 25.3 (0.59) 0.0 0.0 5.4 1.5
Mike Knuble 73.3 (0.61) 15.8 1.0 1.1 1.8
Mike Green 72.1 (0.62) 23.3 1.4 13.4 0.4
Brooks Laich 55.8 (0.81) 18.1 2.1 10.1 1.0
Alexander Semin 60.4 (0.99) 19.9 2.2 8.7 0.7
Jason Chimera 56.9 (1.32) 1.5 0.0 5.3 0.8
Tom Poti 28.4 (1.58) 4.5 0.9 5.5 0.4
Marcus Johansson 39.7 (1.89) 2.2 0.0 3.5 1.1
John Erskine 72.0 (2.50) 1.3 1.6 10.8 1.1
Matt Bradley 24.1 (3.12) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brian Fahey 8.3 (3.61) 1.5 1.3 0.0 0.0
TOI = time on ice
SC+/- = Scoring chances for minus scoring chances against while the player is on the ice.
SCF = Scoring chance for
SAC = Scoring chance against
  • http://redlinestation.blogspot.com RAL

    “When John Carlson, the other half of this new shutdown pair is only a minus 2, what explains the rest of it?”

    I wouldn’t bet my house on this, but I have a hunch that Poti-Carlson or Poti-Erskine was the pairing until Poti got hurt.

  • Breaklance

    Don’t worry according to many brooks shouldn’t be a second liner and apart from being a nice guy is a poor hockey player…and fehr should be getting all of laich’s time

    While that’s full of snark I’ve still been told that around the Internet.

  • http://www.irockthered.net/ IRockTheRed

    @RAL: It was split between Poti-Carlson and Carlson-Alzner most of the time, IIRC.