Caps Scoring Chances thru Oct 24, 2010

Semin scores, Perreault celebrates

Perreault’s debut yields two assists & a +7 scoring differential. (Photo credit: Clydeorama)

What a week. We saw the PK streak come to an end at 25, the Caps roster looks like a scene from M*A*S*H and even the owner called the team average. Then Atlanta got InSEMINated so my fervor for logging the chances of each and every game has been renewed.

scoringChanceDiagramMy definition as to what I consider a scoring chance is narrow by design – I am only looking to log quality scoring chances, not every shot directed at net. I look for a shot taken in the wedge shape pattern whose point is at the goal, extending outward through the faceoff dots and around the top of the circles. There is some great work being done on the topic of shot quality and as you’ll see in the diagram below, which has the latest 2009-10 Shot Quality data from Ken Krzywicki (including how shot type is not as significant as shot angle – neat stuff), there is a method to my madness.

I superimposed the heat map from Krzywicki’s analysis onto an NHL rink diagram. A shot taken from the red area has a VERY slight chance (~3%) of being a goal scored. The green area gets a little better with ~12% going in the net, dark blue ~22% and the light blue area converting ~31% of the time.  Clearly not all shots are created equal, nor are all shots directed to the net a realistic scoring chance. The best type of scoring chance? A rebound:

The goal rate for rebound shots of 32.8% is 3.7 times higher than the overall goal rate of 8.9%, indicating their high quality. Rebounds constituted 4% of all shots taken.

2009-10 NHL Shot Quality Heat Map By Ken Krzywicki

2009-10 NHL Shot Quality Heat Map By Ken Krzywicki

Speaking of heat, Matty Perreault was brought up from Hershey and got things going in a hurry, making his NHL debut with a +7 scoring differential and not on the ice for any of Atlanta’s goals against. I read somewhere that while Perreault may not be a future second line center he may be a better fit at this point in his career than Marcus Johansonn for a Cup run. Can’t remember where tho. I do know that one of the Original Gangstas of the MP85 Mafia will be difficult to live with for a few days. I’ll remind her one game does not a make a career, but it was a much needed spark for this Caps team.

Matt Hendricks continues to be a pleasant surprise. He is even on the scoring chance differential, does a decent job on the PK and got rewarded with some 2nd unit PP time vs. Atlanta.

Jason Chimera cannot seem to buy an offensive zone start from Bodreau. A 20 goal season was a long shot – with 1 offensive zone start every two games it is going to be downright impossible.

Tyler Sloan gets 63% of his starts in the offensive zone but is still has a negative scoring differential at 5v5. I may never understand why the Caps kept him – let alone sign him to  contract extension through 2012 – but the AHL, NHL and possibly KMart are filled with replacement blueliners that would be an upgrade.

Player 5v5 TOI SC +/- Per 15min PP TOI PP SCF/2min PK TOI PK SCA/2min
Mattheiu Perreault 11.8 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brooks Laich 93.8 1.3 30.7 1.8 19.2 4.8
Jeff Schultz 140.8 1.3 2.1 0.0 29.1 8.3
Alexander Semin 104.9 1.0 29.3 2.3 14.4 7.2
Nicklas Backstrom 123.6 1.0 35.7 1.5 13.4 8.9
Alex Ovechkin 135.3 0.7 48.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
Boyd Gordon 36.6 0.4 1.5 1.3 13.2 8.8
Karl Alzner 114.3 0.4 3.6 0.0 13.7 5.5
Mike Knuble 116.6 0.4 26.7 0.8 5.7 5.7
John Carlson 134.2 0.0 18.2 1.5 22.2 4.4
Matt Hendricks 60.4 0.0 2.2 2.7 16.5 5.5
DJ King 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tomas Fleischmann 88.8 (0.2) 23.5 0.9 4.6 4.6
Tom Poti 62.5 (0.2) 9.8 1.0 10.6 5.3
Tyler Sloan 79.1 (0.4) 0.0 0.0 5.7 3.8
Eric Fehr 83.8 (0.5) 19.5 1.4 0.0 0.0
Mike Green 72.5 (0.6) 28.5 1.5 13.4 8.9
Marcus Johansson 62.8 (0.7) 2.7 0.7 6.0 6.0
John Erskine 119.1 (1.3) 2.5 0.8 24.5 4.9
David Steckel 45.0 (1.7) 0.4 0.0 14.4 4.1
Jason Chimera 91.6 (2.5) 3.5 0.0 12.5 5.0
Matt Bradley 24.1 (3.1) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brian Fahey 8.3 (3.6) 1.5 1.3 0.0 0.0
Jay Beagle 5.2 (14.5) 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.0

TOI = time on ice
SC+/- = Scoring chances for minus scoring chances against while the player is on the ice.
SCF = Scoring chance for
SCA = Scoring chance against

  • http://www.twitter.com/jennrubenstein jenn

    i’m going to go ahead and consider myself another member of the MP85 mafia… keep matty p in dc!!! Perreaultcho Cinco fo’ life.

  • http://twitter.com/mcawful mcawful

    Now THIS is an effective use of nerdism. Awesome!

    Also, thank you for desensitizing us all to the use of the term “inSemination”. I have begun using this in public. The public is horrified.

  • twizard1

    At one point, I saw MP85 parking himself in front of the net and getting hammered and thought, OMG – its Dino Ciccarelli!!

  • Pingback: Caps Scoring Chances thru Oct 31, 2010