Caps Scoring Chances thru Nov 7, 2010

Boyd Gordon (Photo by Mitchell Layton/NHLI via Getty Images)
Boyd Gordon leads in scoring chance percentage. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Another week in the books, and I have three questions:

  1. Is there a hidden value to having Sloan on the ice?
  2. Will we see more Uno Seis in our face or on the bench?
  3. Who’s with me on a”Vote for Boyd” campaign?

Luckily, these questions are easily answered because I log scoring chances every game. I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

When Tyler Sloan is on the ice, the Caps see more quality scoring chances as a percentage of shots directed at net (goals + shots saved + missed shots) than any other blueliner. In fact, Sloan’s rate is so high (41.8%) that it is actually third best overall behind Tomas Fleischmann (44.2%) and Brooks Laich (42.9%). Wth?

Eric Fehr got benched for a lack of production against Calgary and responded with back-to-back +5 scoring chance differential games before a -3 clunker (which included a goal scored) versus the Flyers on Sunday night. Considering he had only one game with a positive differential before the benching, I say another one is coming. Prior to the season I had predicted Fehr would score between 15 and 20 goals this year. He’s on pace for 19.

“Vote for Boyd.” Seriously. I am running out of things to write about Boyd Gordon and his play, but here is another nugget: He starts in the offensive zone only 43% of the time, yet the scoring chance percentage (scoring chances for divided by total of chances for and against) when he is on the ice during 5v5 play is 63.6%, second best on the team to Brooks Laich (65.1%). That means for every 10 scoring chances Boyd Gordon is on the ice, more than 6 go in the Caps favor – and that’s with 4th liners as teammates. Because he starts so often in the defensive zone we should expect it to be 47%, or less than half. No one else on the Caps comes close to this type of positive swing.

Player 5v5 TOI SC +/- Per 15min PP TOI PP SCF/2min PK TOI PK SCA/2min
Brooks Laich 153.9 2.4 44.9 1.8 29.7 0.9
Boyd Gordon 83.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 22.7 0.5
Mike Knuble 180.7 1.3 35.6 0.9 13.6 0.3
Nicklas Backstrom 200.2 1.0 52.4 1.7 19.0 0.6
Jeff Schultz 226.5 0.9 3.4 0.0 46.8 0.5
Karl Alzner 199.1 0.8 5.4 0.0 23.6 0.5
Tomas Fleischmann 152.0 0.7 33.9 0.9 7.2 0.6
Alex Ovechkin 217.1 0.6 71.2 1.6 0.4 0.0
Alexander Semin 179.1 0.4 45.1 2.1 21.7 0.6
Tyler Sloan 110.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.2 1.3
Mike Green 169.2 0.4 52.2 1.5 31.1 0.6
Eric Fehr 130.2 0.3 26.4 1.1 0.0 0.0
John Carlson 223.7 0.3 23.8 1.5 33.7 0.7
Tom Poti 62.5 (0.2) 9.8 1.0 10.6 0.8
Matt Hendricks 96.9 (0.3) 3.4 1.8 21.8 0.7
John Erskine 184.8 (0.4) 2.6 0.8 34.2 0.8
Jason Chimera 148.1 (0.6) 5.4 0.4 18.4 0.5
Marcus Johansson 62.8 (0.7) 2.7 0.7 6.0 0.7
Matt Bradley 71.9 (1.7) 0.4 0.0 2.1 0.0
David Steckel 88.9 (1.9) 0.9 0.0 26.3 0.9
DJ King 29.4 (2.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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  • congero

    One reason Brooksie might lead in this metric is the inordinate amount of times he tries unsuccessfully to stuff the puck through the goalies leg pads from two feet out. Well I guess if your going to become the next Knuble you have to start someplace.