Mike Knuble’s struggles are widely known in Caps circles (one goal in fourteen games), but sacrificing a goat, as he joked he might do on DC101, won’t do him any good.
Knuble had a career high shooting percentage of 19.2% last year – at age 37 – so we are seeing two mechanisms at work here: Production slowing down due to age and his shooting percentage regressing back to the mean. In English, he’s getting old and isn’t getting the same lucky bounces as he did last year.
Since the lockout, skaters with at least 150 shots in a season have seen their shooting percentage decline the following year. Those with individual shooting percentages over 19% saw a significant decrease the following year:
|Shooting %||Shooting % the following year||Average Decline|
If Knuble were to experience the average decline, we could expect his shooting percentage to be 13.1%, which is much more in line with his career average.
There is no doubt Knuble is getting the scoring chances, and we should see his current 5-goal season pace pick up. Unfortunately, he can kill all the goats he wants, but it won’t help bring his shooting percentage back up to 19%.
Bonus! Here’s audio of Mike Knuble’s interview with Elliott this morning.
|Part 1||Part 2|
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