Comments on: Why Sacrificing A Goat Won’t Help Mike Knuble

By: AMusingFool

AMusingFool — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 18:27:36 +0000

@Neil, I wasn’t saying he wouldn’t regress, just that he’s likely to regress less than the league average. Hence, my saying that you’re probably overstating, not that you’re wrong. I’ll definitely take the under on 19% also.

By: 28ISGREAT

28ISGREAT — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 20:48:25 +0000

@Laurie – only because he’s heading west in trade.

By: Laurie

Laurie — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 09:07:39 +0000

Goats on the I-95 Corridor breathed a heavy sigh of relief last night.

By: CDizz

CDizz — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 03:22:12 +0000

I think that goat sacrifice worked

By: Neil - RMNB

Neil - RMNB — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 22:38:30 +0000

@Ian It could be, but there is no data supporting it. If we look at “scoring chances for” per 15min of 5v5 ice time we have: Ovechkin at 4.4 with Backstrom & Knuble each tied at 4.3 apiece. Now if we look at goals converted per scoring chance we see Ovechkin converts a scoring chance to a goal 12.5% of the time when he is on the ice, Backstrom 10.3% of the time and Knuble 7.7% – good for dead last among ALL Caps forwards. In fact, take out Beagle and DJ King and he is the only forward not in double digits.

If they are defending the top line better than last year I would expect the conversion % to be a lot closer like the scoring chance per 15 min are.

By: Ian Oland

Ian Oland — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 21:49:56 +0000

Neil, could part of Knuble’s downturn also be attributed to the fact that other teams know how to better defend against the Capitals #1 line? From watching games this year, it seems as if they haven’t had as much space as they did last year.

By: Neil, RMNB

Neil, RMNB — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 21:21:33 +0000

@AMusingFool It's true Knuble does take shots from "high quality areas," however, you would be hard pressed to convince me that after 4 straight years of ~15.5% shooting percentage all of a sudden he found out how to take even MORE high quality chances - at age 37. Plus, as a team, the Caps were EXTREMELY lucky last year, which I believe contributed to Knuble's inflated Sh% in '09-10. I'll take the under.

By: Sean

Sean — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 16:01:57 +0000

Aside of agreeing with AMusingFool, I have to disagree with your thesis. If luck is what Knuble needs to increase his shooting% (and not only has Knubs not been getting the lucky bounces, he’s been getting outright unlucky), sacrificing a goat might just help that. What better way to increase your luck than magic and superstition?

By: AMusingFool

AMusingFool — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 15:06:58 +0000

I think you’re overstating a tiny bit here. He tends to take shots from high-percentage areas, and hence, has a well-above-league average career shooting percentage (14.2%). I’d be more than satisfied if he’d get back up to that career rate (or even just within one percent of it, come to that).

By: Sec 105

Sec 105 — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 14:20:45 +0000

Knuble wants to sacrifice Goat?