Could An Ovechtrick Actually Happen?

Spell: Ovechtrick

Back in October, when Alex Ovechkin used to score goals, I ran a simulation estimating his chances at getting 50 in 50. Yea, he really did score goals back then enough to inspire me to write that. The simulation had him scoring on average 42 goals (plus or minus 8 ) in an 82-game season, and while it seemed far-fetched at the time, here we are staring at a 30-goal season out of the Great 8. So why not see how absurd possible it would be for him to get the Ovechtrick.

For those of you that missed it, an Ovechtrick is a 9-goal game scored by Ovechkin. Those muckity mucks at Verizon are clever, eh?

To estimate his chances I will again use a Monte Carlo simulation to run 10,000 “games.” It starts with me using the shots on goal and shooting percentage during the regular season for Ovechkin during this season and the last two. Then I figure out how frequently these events occurred and let lady luck work her fickle magic.

As you would expect, the most frequent occurrence is the zero goal game, which happened in 6,493 games out of the 10,000 ran for the simulation, or 64.93%. Here are the rest:

ovechtrick

Y-axis is frequency, X-axis is goals per game

Wayyyy on the right there are actually two games out of the 10,000 simulated where had Ovi recorded the Ovechtrick.

Goals in a game # of Simulations %
0 6,493 64.93%
1 2,422 24.22%
2 738 7.38%
3 225 2.25%
4 43 0.43%
5 45 0.45%
6 16 0.16%
7 8 0.08%
8 8 0.08%
9 2 0.02%
Grand Total 10,000 100.00%

It could happen.

ovechtrick-ovi-with-muppet

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  • Bob

    http://tinyurl.com/23ooalr “So your’re telling me there’s a chance?!”

  • http://capslove.wordpress.com Dazey2

    Haha, best post. And of course it could happen. Why else would this ad be done?!

    Also, does anyone know if there was a Sidney Crosby-based ad of similar magnitude that was shown in the Pittsburgh area? Or was this commercial shown everywhere?

  • Thag

    Right now, I would settle for an Ovechgoal…

  • Jay

    The Ovechtrick ad was shown in Albuquerque, NM – so i’m guessing it was shown everywhere

  • Lissita12

    To Dazey2 I was out of town over the weekend and the only NBC channel I could get was out of Pittsburgh. They only showed he Ovi commercial it does not appear Sid has a similar commercial.

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