Is $6.7M for Alex Semin a Good Deal?

Alex Semin

Photo credit: Mitchell Layton

The snow did its best to keep me from weighing in on this issue, but the good people at Pepco restored my power just in time to offer my take, which is really just a continuation on what I thought Semin was worth back in November:

Ultimately, playoff performance and contract demands will determine Semin’s fate in Washington, but the fact that teams spent 20 percent more last summer on unrestricted free agents than the summer before leads me to believe the Caps should require a significant hometown discount in order to keep their other Russian gamebreaker for years to come.

At $6.7 million for a one year contract, I don’t qualify that as a “hometown discount”, so I have to say it’s a bit high. The one year gives both sides flexibility, and maybe Semin could be pushed into earning a long-term contract with a healthy, 40-goal season next year, but that’s unlikely considering how players similar to Semin’s 2010 campaign have performed over the following two years of their similar season.

Player GP Goals Assists Points Shots TOI
Semin in 2010 73 40 44 84 278 1396
Top 10 SIM players to Semin’s 2010 (average of stats) 77 36 38 74 260 1405
Semin current 2010-11 production 39 18 17 35 127 694
Semin proj 2010-11 production for rest of season 70 32 31 63 228 1246
Similar players the following year (proj 2010-11) 68 29 32 61 218 1274
Similar players the year after that (proj 2011-12) 70 32 35 67 222 1313

Based on players similar to Semin, we could have projected him to score 30 goals and 61 points on 218 shots over 1274 minutes of ice time in 68 games played.  (Oh wait – we already did that in September!) Semin is on pace for 32 goals and 63 points on 228 shots over 1246 minutes of ice time in 70 games played if we assume he will return immediately after the All Star break – almost right on the button.

Those same players scored 32 goals and 67 points (on average) in 70 games played two years after seasons similar to Semin’s 2010 campaign, for which the Caps will pay $6.7 million.

With that expected production I think this is a steep price. What do you think?

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  • JDP

    He’s our only player who scores. Its a one year deal. Worth it.

  • Brandon

    Ah, yes. Semin. The subject of the first Russian Machine Never Breaks debate.

    My thoughts remain the same. They’ve got to close their eyes, ignore the early returns from the Hossa-Kovalchuk deals and keep Semin around.

  • J.P.

    Wonder if this doesn’t up his trade value slightly. Instead of renting Semin for half a season and have to worry about re-signing and negotiating with him at season’s end, now other teams interested in trading for Semin will have a solid number to figure in their future cap space. Thoughts?

  • Carl Putnam

    Who were the 10 players who used as a comparison?

  • Tim

    I think it’s slightly high, but not so much as to be problematic. Even with this deal, the Caps can afford to re-sign Varly, Laich, Alzner, B. Gordon, and Hendricks, and still sign 1 or maybe 2 other players. That would give a full and competitive lineup with 12+ forwards, 7 dmen, and 3 goalies (I assume Holtby would probably be in Hershey though).

    While this could be part of a move to trade Semin, I’d be surprised. It would up his value since he would no longer be a rental, but I don’t think GMGM is going to trade him.

  • Avtopilot

    There is allready a RW deficit – can’t see any moves with Semin, that will make the team stronger…

  • 4capitals

    This was a good signing for both the player and the team. Semin is a legitimate 30 goal scorer and there are not a lot of 30 goal scorers out there. As for trading him, that is not going to happen. As is evident from our offensive woes this season we need scorers, there is no one out there that we could trade Semin for who would score at the level Semin does. It is time for the Semin haters out there to realize that Semin is an essential cog on this team and if BB had any sense he would put Semin on the top line with Ovie and Backstrom.

  • Colin

    Considering how thin the UFA class is this year, it’s not a horrible deal. I doubt it was done to make him better trade bait though. I would be surprised if this contract did not include a No Trade Clause.

  • 28ISGREAT

    I’ll take a 1 year deal. He’s worth every penny. And while I understand the contract value being pegged to Backstrom’s deal, I’m not satisfied its a fair comparasion – at least not the way Nicky has been playing (or as the case may be, not playing) this season.

    And I agree with the previous poster – put Semin back on the 1st line. You see BB do that when the team is down and time is running out – presumably on the notion that line combo provides the maximum scoring threat.

    So if thats the rationale, why not do it more often? How about early in the 1st period to get that crucial first goal? Lord knows we could have used that boost many many times this season.

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  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Russian Machine Never Breaks

    @Carl:

    Similar players to Semin’s 2010 campaign

    player year age
    Mariusz Czerkawski 2000 27
    Markus Naslund 2001 27
    Eric Daze 2002 26
    Martin Havlat 2009 27
    Thomas Vanek 2007 23
    Henrik Zetterberg 2006 25
    Keith Tkachuk 1999 26
    Corey Perry 2009 23
    Pavol Demitra 2000 25
    Thomas Vanek 2008 24

  • Carl Putnam

    Thanks.

  • Tattooed Enigma

    Also don’t forget that the current CBA expires after the 2011-12 season and a lot of players including Semin are keeping close tabs to the new CBA talks because there is big talks that with the new CBA they plan on doing something about these huge multi year deals (Thanks to Kovalchuk and Hossa).

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