Photo credit: Mitchell Layton
The snow did its best to keep me from weighing in on this issue, but the good people at Pepco restored my power just in time to offer my take, which is really just a continuation on what I thought Semin was worth back in November:
Ultimately, playoff performance and contract demands will determine Semin’s fate in Washington, but the fact that teams spent 20 percent more last summer on unrestricted free agents than the summer before leads me to believe the Caps should require a significant hometown discount in order to keep their other Russian gamebreaker for years to come.
At $6.7 million for a one year contract, I don’t qualify that as a “hometown discount”, so I have to say it’s a bit high. The one year gives both sides flexibility, and maybe Semin could be pushed into earning a long-term contract with a healthy, 40-goal season next year, but that’s unlikely considering how players similar to Semin’s 2010 campaign have performed over the following two years of their similar season.
|Semin in 2010||73||40||44||84||278||1396|
|Top 10 SIM players to Semin’s 2010 (average of stats)||77||36||38||74||260||1405|
|Semin current 2010-11 production||39||18||17||35||127||694|
|Semin proj 2010-11 production for rest of season||70||32||31||63||228||1246|
|Similar players the following year (proj 2010-11)||68||29||32||61||218||1274|
|Similar players the year after that (proj 2011-12)||70||32||35||67||222||1313|
Based on players similar to Semin, we could have projected him to score 30 goals and 61 points on 218 shots over 1274 minutes of ice time in 68 games played. (Oh wait – we already did that in September!) Semin is on pace for 32 goals and 63 points on 228 shots over 1246 minutes of ice time in 70 games played if we assume he will return immediately after the All Star break – almost right on the button.
Those same players scored 32 goals and 67 points (on average) in 70 games played two years after seasons similar to Semin’s 2010 campaign, for which the Caps will pay $6.7 million.
With that expected production I think this is a steep price. What do you think?