Will Alex Ovechkin Rally Down The Stretch?


Photo credit: Richard Wolowicz

Coming into this season, I referenced PDO and why it would be responsible for the Caps’ offensive woes this season. The good news is that the pendulum swings the other way too, so while this season has been quite a disappointment — even more so than I thought it might be — I think the final stretch may progress to the mean.

Why? Alex Ovechkin. Randomly pulling shots out of his career, the chances of Alex scoring only 19 goals on 234 shots is 81-to-1, a 1.25% chance. Over his career, Alex Ovechkin in 396 games had 269 goals on 2159 shots for a shooting percentage of 12.5%. If we use the equation for margin of error, we can be 95% sure his real finishing ability is between 11.07% and 13.85%. This season’s shooting percentage of 8.1% falls way outside the 95% confidence level, so I think a stronger finish is possible.

With 31 games left, we project Ovechkin will have 142 shots on goal. If he rebounds to his “real” finishing ability of 11-14%, he could net 15 to 20 goals in the season’s remainder, coming close to ending the year with 40 goals scored.

My money is on 34 goals. What do you think Ovechkin will end the season with?

How many goals will Alex Ovechkin have this season?

  • 30
  • 31
  • 32
  • 33
  • 34
  • 35
  • 36
  • 37
  • 38
  • 39
  • 40+

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  • Owen

    Maybe I should stop watching. It seems every time I’ve missed a game this year, Ovie has a great game. That beautiful, Ovechkin-esque goal against the Panthers, I was driving all day, and the hat trick against the Maple Leafs, I was at a basketball game.

    Well luckily, I will be watching a basketball game tomorrow night with some buddies, so look for him to light it up.

  • CDizz

    We need a repeat of January ’10

  • J.P.

    29 given the way both Ovi and Backstrom are struggling. I hope it’s more but seeing as how the PP unit is deader’n John Wayne and all the horses he ever rode, well, I don’t see it happening. Blow the PP the fuck up and place Ovi down low around the net instead of the point, then maybe I’ll reconsider.

  • BobbyG

    @J.P.: as the PP goes, so goes the Caps’ offense. ‘Nuff said. I’m with you, I don’t know why Coach BB uses Ovie on the point for PP, when he can be much more effective going to the net.

    And…as for tonight’s game against the Habs…I’ve seen this act or some variation of it before. Caps go up 2-0 in the first period, blow the lead, then lose in the SO. Are we supposed to be satisfied with one point? Do the Caps look like they’re at least trending up for the playoff push? This team is more frustrating and mind-boggling as the season goes on.

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