Comments on: Why Future Performance, Not Consistency, Matters

By: RT

RT — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 14:44:00 +0000

Interesting analysis. If I can make one recommendation however, you should consider including axis labels on your charts.

By: Is Alex Ovechkin A Streaky Shooter?

Is Alex Ovechkin A Streaky Shooter? — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 02:10:52 +0000

[...] showed that all hockey players, particularly goal scorers, hit slumps, and it’s possible that the skater is not actually streaky by nature but due to some bad bounces [...]

By: Is Alex Semin A Streaky Shooter?

Is Alex Semin A Streaky Shooter? — Sat, 05 Feb 2011 21:26:17 +0000

[...] showed the other day that all hockey players, particularly goal scorers, hit slumps, and it’s possible that the skater is not actually streaky by nature, but due to some bad bounces [...]

By: Jason B

Jason B — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 13:32:57 +0000

Monte Carlo Machine,

I’m a big fan. Have you thought of using a quasi-random number generator for Mr. Super Consistent? It might make him look even more consistent, with the same shots on goal and scoring percent.

http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2009/03/16/quasi-random-sequences-in-art-and-integration/

- Jason B

By: Sean

Sean — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 18:58:18 +0000

@Hackeynut

Actually, Semin is one of our best PK forwards. In the past two seasons he’s allowed 7PPGA in over 120min of SHTOI, and been on the ice for 5 SHGF. Reality doesn’t match many of the stereo-type and misconceptions applied to Semin. He’s excellent along the boards and a solid defensive player.

As for the topic of the article, I’d be interested to see a comparisson of Semin’s Corsi numbers to a “consistent” players’ Corsi numbers over the span of a season.

By: Hackeynut

Hackeynut — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 14:42:23 +0000

I think the big problem with players like Semin is not that their goal scoring is up and down, that happens to everyone. The problem is rather that goal scoring is all they are good for. For example, look at the Red Wings. Datsyuk and Zetterburg go through scoring droughts. But even as they do, they play stiff defense, set plays up and generally dictate a pace of game whether they are hitting the goalie the post or the twine.

That is the big problem on this team in general. There are too many guys that when they don’t score, they don’t contribute. That’s why a Brooks Laich scoring slump is more palatable, at least he is killing penalties and playing defense.

By: Neil - RMNB

Neil - RMNB — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:22:12 +0000

Play nice you two.

@Tim, this really didn’t go into whether Semin is *actually* streaky or not, just that “streaky” may not be what we thought it would be. The chart shows that even someone who is super consistent (3 shots a night with a 14.5% chance at each on becoming a goal) will still *look* streaky even though he is the most consistent shooter there is.

I plan on a follow up post to go into whether Semin is *actually* streaky or more consistent than we think. Then we can come up with reasons why. Together. Like a family. A family that puts the “fun” in dysfunction.

By: Tim

Tim — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 06:07:42 +0000

CDizz, stop being a dick. I’m not disagreeing with Neil at all – just pointing out what I usually hear about as Semin’s streakiness. I very much like Neil’s analyses, even if I don’t always get what his charts actually show (like today).

By: CDizz

CDizz — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:47:22 +0000

Tim is a sourpuss.

By: Russian Machine Never Breaks

Russian Machine Never Breaks — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 00:38:30 +0000

Oh Tim. I ran all your comments on RMNB through my Monte Carlo Machine. There is a 61.9% chance you will disagree with what I write, comment my analysis is wrong or comment it doesn’t address “x.” You are def one of my favs. Glad you are a reader. Don’t ever change. ::high five::

-Neil