Comments on: Can The Capitals Win The Southeast Division?

By: PainKiller

PainKiller — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 18:48:32 +0000

Neil, thanks for giving us additional ways to look at situations. I wonder, how long have you been providing statistical analysis? Have you kept track of how many times your projections and predictions have been correct (or, close to correct.)

Again, thanks!

By: Neil, RMNB

Neil, RMNB — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 12:46:38 +0000

@Bradford I am using win percentage to figure out wins, then estimating OT losses using GF and GA for total points.

@tim that sounds about right.

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 05:29:41 +0000

Neil – thanks for the explanation. That actually makes a bit more sense. So it pretty much means the Caps have a 32+% chance of getting 26-28 more points then?

Paul – as of right now (which is 2 days after your post, to be fair), the Caps are 3 points behind, and have played 1 more game than Tampa. So Tampa could easily be 5 points ahead, if the games played were even.

By: Bradford

Bradford — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 20:37:41 +0000

Are you taking win percentage or points percentage into account here? If you’re going straight off of two points for a win, no points for a loss, the analysis gets confounded somewhat – especially with Tampa taking so many games into OT lately.

By: Paul R

Paul R — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 02:17:53 +0000

Sorry about ‘ridiculous’. You do good work and deserve more respect. While we are talking Caps, two things–do not trade Semin, and I think there is a 100 percent chance we will win the SE. Just me…

Paul R

By: Russian Machine Never Breaks

Russian Machine Never Breaks — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:52:57 +0000

@Paul I wouldn’t say it is “ridiculous.” I am in the minority thinking they have a chance. I originally told Sky Kerstein a week ago they had a 20% chance and got laughed at on Twitter — which hurts more than you think.

You’re right tho, there is a 100% chance they win the division or don’t.

High five for you at RMNB 2: Electric Boogaloo.

-N

By: Paul R

Paul R — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:43:39 +0000

Sorry, Neil. It is a ridiculous question. One point behind with 21games to play. Can they win? They could win with one game to play. I like stats and data, but not only could we win, we could win by a lot. We could lose, perhaps by a lot, maybe by not much. But could we win–of course. The answer is there is a 100percent chance we could.

Love your stuff. Just a clumsy question.

By: Russian Machine Never Breaks

Russian Machine Never Breaks — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 00:04:33 +0000

@Chris: I probably should have been more clear. I ran 10,000 seasons for the Caps, against *their* remaining opponents and 10,000 for TBL, against *their* remaining opponents. Not WSH/TBL head to head.

What you are seeing is the total points based on the team’s respective remaining schedules.

@Tim That really isn’t games where they end up with 103 points, but games where they end up with 101.01 to 103.

-Neil

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 21:48:41 +0000

Just curious, but isn’t the log5 for “when two teams play each other?” We don’t play each other the entire rest of the season… we play lots of other teams too – would a “better” approach be to do this vs each opponent/each game and see the points results? Not saying we should do that, but just curious about the math.

By: Tim

Tim — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 21:24:36 +0000

I like the Caps chances of winning the SE, especially with how Tampa has been playing recently. Even if they don’t win the SE, they should take either the 4 or 5 seed. I’d be happy with either result – especially if we get a weakened Pens team in the 1st round.

Just curious – why is there the enormous spike on 103 points for the Caps?