All that it would take would be a 360 SOG season with a 14% shooting percentage. Which is well within the realm of “somewhat likely.”

]]>My statistic-free, ‘gut’ prediction for the 2011-12 season: 46 goals, +/- 4. I might also try my hand at a proper sim before the summer is out, as you once suggested others should do.

Thanks for the post though – I am enjoying the site.

]]>Nice work as always.

What would be interesting is if you ran your simulator on previous years and see where they compared to the actual results. (2nd season based on rookie season, 3rd season based on first two…etc.)

What were the odds that Ovi would score 65 goals in ’08?

]]>I realize you’re proud of the work you do here and that you put tons of effort in to RMNB, ESPN, and WashPo. But that doesn’t mean that every single prediction you made was done correctly. Your conclusion did not fit the data. Real world factors that you didn’t account for helped skew the real world data to match your projection.

You’re a stat guy. You know that variance exists. You know that, while it’s unlikely, a result can fall multiple standard deviations away from the mean. That’s exactly what Ovechkin’s season did, and it happened to line up with your conclusion of a down season. You got lucky.

What you fail to mention is that Ovechkin’s season fell outside of your standard deviation. Even you have to admit Ovechkin’s season was abnormal. I’m not sure why you’re trying to use an abnormal, and potentially (hopefully) and outlier, season as a justification for your previous analysis.

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