The Likelihood of Tom Wilson Making the Capitals

Photo credit: Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Washington Capitals power forward prospect Tom Wilson has come a long way from where he was last year. Some think he’s primed for a roster spot with the big club this season.

There will be lots of factors in George McPhee’s decision to keep Wilson or send him back to the OHL’s Plymouth Whalers. In this post, I’ll take a look at all of them.

The Salary Cap

The Caps currently have 22 players on their NHL roster with $665,705 of remaining cap space. Most teams (including the Caps) prefer to begin a season with a full 23-man roster. If Wilson were to take the final roster spot, McPhee would most likely have to shed some salary.

Per CapGeek, Wilson’s cap hit is $1,294,167, but the Caps would need to cut only a little over $400,000 to fit Wilson. $200,000 of Wilson’s cap are performance bonuses. Because the NHL has a bonus cushion, teams are allowed to exceed the salary cap by 7.5 percent ($4,822,500) in performance bonuses (by default counting towards the salary cap). This “bonus cap” shouldn’t be concerning for the Caps as Wilson would be the only player on the roster with a performance bonus in his contract. We don’t know the bonus clauses in Wilson’s contract, but it’s unlikely he would earn all of them as they’re typically only earned by the top players. It’s tough to imagine Wilson winning an NHL award or reaching a 20-goal/60-point rookie season. Thus, the cap penalty would be minor or there would be none.

Wilson’s cap hit without the performance bonuses is $1,094,167, which is still higher than that of the players on the bubble for the few last spots on the roster: depth defensemen Dmitry Orlov and Tomas Kundratek, and bottom-six forwards Aaron Volpatti, Michael Latta, and Garrett Mitchell. If McPhee chooses to bring Wilson to DC, the GM would first have to decide Wilson is an upgrade over other players and then he’d have to make roster moves to make him fit.

The Roster Situation

As of right now, the Caps have four right wingers on their big-league roster: Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Eric Fehr. Placing Wilson in the already clogged line-up could lead to line shuffling and disgruntled players. A solution may have already presented itself: Adam Oates recently told the media he is experimenting with Fehr and Martin Erat at center instead of wing. If Fehr sticks as a pivot, that may open up a spot on the right side of the bottom-six where Wilson could fit.

As a teenager drafted out of the CHL, Wilson can’t be sent down to the American Hockey League’s Hershey Bears. Contrary to popular belief though, the Caps have the option of assigning him back to the juniors at any moment. If they do it before he plays in 10 regular season games, his entry-level contract would expire in 2017. If he’s sent to juniors after 10 games, one year of his contract would burn, making him an RFA in 2016. Most likely, the team’s management wouldn’t want to waste a year of a first-round pick’s cheap entry-level contract.

Wilson’s Development

It is widely believed that rushing a prospect to the NHL, especially with little ice time or being frequently scratched, is a poor way to develop a player. One of the most obvious examples of that is Nino Niederreiter, the Islanders’ 5th overall pick in the 2010 Draft. After bringing Niederreiter up in 2011-12 instead of sending him back to his junior team, the Isles only gave the youngster (who couldn’t be demoted to the AHL) an average of 10 minutes of ice time through 55 games. Last season, the Swiss wunderkind was sent to the minors and didn’t play a single minute in the NHL. This summer, the Isles traded him to Minnesota for Cal Clutterbuck. As Sean Gentille of Sporting News put it, they were done messing up his development.

George McPhee understands that with a limited number of top prospects in the organization, he can’t afford to spare them in that manner. The Capitals GM has always been patient with his prospects, and we should assume this time will be no different.

“He’s gonna have to play, and can he be effective out there and can he be good, responsible defensively, can he be a responsible player,” McPhee said Thursday about expectations of Wilson coming into the camp. “Can we trust to put him out there every shift and trust that he’s going to be good enough defensively and be able to do something offensively? [Ice time] always goes into the equation. Is six or eight minutes a game going to be enough? I’m not sure.”

Wilson’s destination will be determined by the preseason. “He’s gonna have to show us in the games, this is what training camp is for, show us something,” McPhee said. “And we’re just gonna watch and see, as I said, you’ve got eight games, you’ve got 20 days”.

To fit him into the roster for even just a few regular-season games, the Caps might be forced to make an additional move. It’s yet to be determined whether making space for Wilson would be worth the potential downgrade somewhere else.

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  • Benjamin Scarbro

    If they assign him to the OHL and someone gets hurt, can the bring him up just for <10 games?

  • dylan wheatley

    the islanders were just making sure that nino ended up developing into an islander.

  • Jonathan Garcia

    No, it’s not like the AHL. If he’s sent down he’s in Plymouth until their season ends.

  • dylan wheatley

    I don’t see that they have any choice but to bring him up, he’s too big for the CHL, and Oates has already made the Lindros comparison.

  • Matt McNeely

    Anyone else notice this guy seems to fall down a lot? #justsayin

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    I only notice the guys he’s hitting falling down a lot.

  • Tom Martin

    Couldn’t they open a third line winger spot by moving Fehr to 4th Line center, and putting WIlson on a 3rd line with MP85 at Center and Laich at LW? Would bump Beagle out, but if they are pushing for Wilson to be on the roster that would get him minutes, and provide explanation to Fehr taking center minutes in the preseason.

  • Ben Reed

    Let’s not forget a more close-to-home example of stunted development: Steve Eminger.

    Wilson is an exciting prospect, but he is still a prospect. We don’t need another 4th liner right now, especially at that cap hit.

  • Derek

    I blame his skate blade for that. I think he does too.

  • yv

    Wilson needs to show more stick and puck handling skills beside chasing and hitting opponents. I don’t think he has shown this yet in any Caps games he played. Caps need salary room for better second pair Dman that might Orlov will manage to take with lesser cap hit. However, still it looks like any Caps move to add 23d player will require some painful decisions for the current roster player.

  • Adam Schwager

    Bring him up for a 5-9 game audition. Then send him down to the OHL

  • bskillet

    Another year in Hershey would probably be best but hey, watching him scurry off the ice after losing his blade has to be worth something, never saw that before. Wilson is going to be a good Capital but the roster is evidently full??? I would listen to Adam before McPhee and see what he thinks.

  • Troy

    Why did we resign Johansson…. Ruining everything

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    He can’t play in Hershey this year, he didn’t play in Hershey last year except a few playoff games after his OHL season was over.

  • RESmith

    Wilson is one of the famous tweeners that get caught in limbo with the age restriction agreement for Major Junior players. His skills have advanced beyond the level of play in Major Junior but might be not quite there yet for regular NHL duty. He’s not going to grow much with another year in junior, but unless it is irrefutably clear he has beaten out someone else for a roster spot on the Caps with his play in the preseason, the Caps really don’t have any other choice. It stinks for all involved except Plymouth.

  • Schultz (not Jeff)

    I like the guy’s attitude, but he’s getting sent to Plymouth. Doesn’t make sense from a roster perspective, he could use further development, you have the rush job reticence and hopefully he can play for Hersey and the Caps in the post season again.

    Unless of course he shows a lot and we shed some high priced 4th liners or RW to get a 4D…

  • Gunjin

    I want Orlov up, WIlson can wait a year and develop with more ice time in the OHL.

  • Tiffany

    He’s not too big for the CHL. We’ve had bigger kids on Plymouth than Tom.

  • Diva Donna

    He is too big for the OHL where every hard body check is a penalty. As a Plymouth fan, of course I’d love to have him back, but I think he will just get frustrated with the officiating. Get used to hearing “Plymouth penalty on #10, two minutes for checking too hard.”