Tom Wilson is Sticking Around

tom-wilson-punch

(Apparently, today is the day when everything Mike Vogel’s tweets becomes a story. Please follow Mike Vogel; he’s the best and he has good taste in music.)

So Vogel reports that Tom Wilson isn’t going anywhere:

The Capitals had until Wilson’s 9th game to choose to keep him in DC or assign him to Plymouth. The AHL was not an option.

The 19-year-old rookie will earn $925k on a $894k cap hit this season. It’s kind of complicated, so check out CapGeek for details.

Wilson has played 46.9 minutes on ice so far, averaging a team-low 6.6 minutes per game. His 18 hits is good for third best (behind Ovechkin and Brouwer). He has put just 8 shots on net so far this season, though that is five more than Marcus Johansson.

Wilson has been flanked so far by Martin Erat, a $4.5M veteran most expected to be playing in the top six.

Oates and McPhee seem to see something in Wilson that hasn’t been apparent on the ice yet. The good news is that Tom will have 75 more games to share with the rest of us.

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  • Ben Reed

    No surprise. They didn’t trade MP85 for 9 games of Wilson. I think we’ll see him in the top 9 by T’giving.

  • Steve Hickey

    good for Tom. Felt bad for him the other night. after dropping the gloves his team never responded……

  • Super43

    Yay, my name won’t look stupid this season!

  • GMGM

    The most important thing here though is what happens to Eric Fehr since he is no splitting time at 4th line RW with Wilson

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    I don’t think fights motivate teams.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    kiiiiiiiiiiind of a surprise

  • Super43

    I think it IS a surprise. At this rate GMGM will need to deal someone to get Tommy boy the playing time he needs if he is to stay on this team.

  • Todd N

    good…taking my gf to her first hockey game ever this saturday…her last name is Wilson…maybe i can pick up a jersey too : )

  • Steve Hickey

    I beg to differ.. pre arranged heavy weight fights not so much

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    The data beg to differ with you. There is no evidence that fights– including non-staged fights and excluded “lost” fights– increase the number of shots or goals the “winning” team puts on net following the fight.

    It’s voodoo, and it’s a sideshow.

  • Steve Hickey

    well surely you can back your claim up that they don’t with tangible evidence then. I never claimed that a fight would increase goal or shot output either. I said respond. The Caps looked disinterested all game imo. Its not mystery that a team that hits and established a forcheck creates time and space, thus potential scoring chances.

  • Ben Reed

    Before game 1 I assumed he’d be here to stay. I’ll admit that the limited playing time made me think returning to OHL was a possibility.

    I mean, when they traded MP didn’t it seem like it was to make room for Wilson?

  • dcv

    They also felt they could trade away Forsberg because they rated Wilson as the better prospect. The organization is investing an amazing amount in him, so he better turn out to be the real deal and not just a 4th line grinder/fighter.

  • dylan wheatley

    I think in “winning hockey games” terms, a reponse would be more shots on net, reflecting increased possession and OZ time.

    So I think what Pete’s saying is that if you look at games where there was a fight, and you look at the “winning” (unsure how this is defined) team’s total shot output (which is corsi I think) after the fight, there’s no correlated increase in shot volume.

  • Aaron Baum

    who do I need to speak with to get the Phish song Wilson to play after each TW43 fight or goal ala Seattle?!? http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/23396432/seahawks-pump-in-phish-song-fans-chant-wilson-thursday Wiiiiiiillllllsssoooooonnnn!

  • Chris Cerullo

    Now will he get the minutes he needs to develop…..?

  • Matthew Kory

    Getting Wilson and Forsburg in the draft was exciting but it kinda seems now that the team is doing everything in their power to screw it up. The dealt Forsberg for a player they clearly have no interest in, and now they’re content keeping Wilson sitting on the back of the bench when he should, and I feel strongly enough about this that I’m willing to use that word, be getting as much time on the ice as possible. How is he supposed to get better if he isn’t playing? And if GMGM and Oats can’t find a slot for Erat, the guy they badly wanted and were willing to pay lots of money and cap space to acquire, how can they find one for Wilson?

    I was excited about having Oats as coach and I thought this season would be a great one primarily due to finally having a coach who recognizes talent and puts it in the best possible situation to succeed. Doesn’t seem that’s happening though, and in fact, it kinda seems the opposite is happening. Lousy players getting more ice time, buying high on players and then diminishing their value… Yuck. I hope things straighten out soon.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    “They also felt they could trade away Forsberg because they rated Wilson as the better prospect.”

    Let’s not get too crazy here. I don’t think Wilson is a better prospect, but he certainly brings a completely different skill set than Forsberg and he has rapidly improved since being drafted. He deserves a ton of credit for how much he’s worked and how great of a skater he is considering his size.

    They definitely had more roster room for a physical RW that they could bring along slowly on the 4th line than a guy who would have been better used in the top 6 or top 9. But it’s still a damn shame Forsberg is gone. They really could have used that youth. This team needs to badly start bringing in some more talented young players that will be able to help Ovechkin and Backstrom more.

  • Steve Hickey

    I can accept the fact the the Caps will lose a game….its a 82 game season…..what I can’t accept is getting embarrassed on home ice in a nationally televised game. No compete, players gliding, not finishing checks.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett
  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    I liked Oates’ patience with Ovechkin last year, especially when he put him on a line with Beagle to try and take all pressure off and make him simplify his game. I really love how he coaches.

    I think though, he’s been coy at explaining why he hasn’t changed the lines more. He or McPhee have not done well explaining why they haven’t been playing Erat. Is it really because he “can’t find a spot for him?” Especially with how poorly the season has started. At least he made a change today.

    I just think sometimes this team could be more forthright and I don’t understand certain situations when they’re not. The first couple of weeks here have been confusing. I’ve had trouble understanding their side of the story and sometimes they don’t give enough details as to why they’re doing something. When that happens, some of Oates’ decisions seemspretty whacky.

  • dcv

    My statement was based on comments by GMGM and Vogs after the Forsberg trade. Regardless of the reason for their decision, his presence meant they didn’t think they had room for Forsberg.

  • Steve Hickey

    you’ve googled, to back your claim, bravo. although were arguing over the definition of respond. Again if you honestly think that a heat of the moment fight in hockey has no emotional lift for the players on the team than you’re doing it wrong….

  • dylan wheatley

    but the links clearly show that nobody is scoring more goals after a fight.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    I wasn’t googling– those are my bookmarks on the topic. I study this stuff a lot.

    You said respond, I said motivate. I think either one can be measured in increased shots or goals following the fight (feel free to disagree).

    The thing you’re missing is that BOTH teams are in the fight. Hockey is zero sum, so if both teams are “emotionally lifted” after the fight, there is no difference on the ice. And even if we just count the “won” fights, there’s still no evidence.

  • BPThomas

    I agree with both of you, but it’s hard for me to have the Ozzie Newsome-level of trust with Oates because he only has that shortened year so far. I seriously hope he picks things up soon though.

  • Steve Hickey

    you’ve never witnessed a game where after a fight the team responds and finishes check and plays more physically?

  • dylan wheatley

    You’re talking about a subjective impression vs objective data.

    it’s “I watched our guy beat up their guy and now the team seems to really have some jam” vs “This one guy beat the hell out of this other guy but his team didn’t score more goals as a result”

  • Steve Hickey

    again its coming down to the definition of respond. I clearly stated before this conversation started that my definition of respond was more akin to skating harder and competing. I never claimed that a hockey fight would result in a win or better chance at it… Again I expect as a fan and paying customer to see compete on every night. Im not back tracking if you care to read my initial posts.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    How would that prove your point when the example you made above is that the Caps players didn’t respond in this game?

    Fights don’t “shift momentum” with any discernible reliability or predictability; i.e. low correlation coefficient. If you saw someone fight and then a team play better, you might just be projecting your own narrative onto two events without any causal or correlative relationship.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    I don’t completely remember them saying that, but I believe you. I actually think though the emergence of Riley Barber and their belief that Kuznetsov would indeed come over to the states influenced their decision making more there. Also the long-term contract they gave to Brouwer (which might have not been wise). I’m not saying Wilson didn’t have an impact, but if you think you have three or four can’t miss guys instead of two or three, you feel a lot more comfortable with making such an aggressive deal.

    And with Ovechkin as a RW now too, they do have a lot of depth there — though I’d still rather have the younger players instead of the veterans they have now.

    Thanks for commenting!!

  • Steve Hickey

    that may be true….a fight can emotionally lift both teams…but when one team is taking the night off and a fight has the potential to wake that said team up and we have both team skating at potential ill take that any night. Ovechkin is most dangerous when hes trucking defenders and causing turnovers…. Isn’t this RMNB?

  • Steve Hickey

    except for the fact that team can respond even though their teammate “lost” the fight as well

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    I’d have him playing on the first line over Johansson.

  • dylan wheatley

    I am bowing out of this fight in order to give my team a better chance of scoring the next goal.

  • Matthew Kory

    I like the way Oates coaches as well. If nothing else it’s much better than how I was spelling “Oates” in my previous comment. Actually, I think that’s actually at the heart of my disappointment. Based on last season’s small sample, I felt he could do great things, yet he’s kept Marcus on the top line for some reason besides his performance, relegated Erat to invisibility (a good thing for a superhero, less so for a hockey player), and now he’s moved Grabo down to the third line. If the players aren’t playing well this is just deck chairs on the Titanic, so I realize I’m kinda yelling about nothing, but it seems important, dammit.

  • Daniel Walker

    If by some unimaginable stroke of fate I one day become an NHL GM, my plan for success will be to ask myself what George McPhee would do in every situation…… and then do the exact opposite. I don’t understand this move. I like Wilson and believe a player with his size and skating ability should be coveted and carefully groomed. Playing limited minutes on the 4th line will almost certainly skew his development towards becoming a really excellent tough guy, 4th liner. In order for him to develop into a Lucic type of player, he must be put in a Lucic type of role. Latta should be getting the 4th line minutes. He will be great there one day.

    BTW, have we traded Neuvy, Eric Fehr and a first round pick to Edmonton for Nick Schultz yet? (Its coming)….

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com Ian Oland

    Exactly. I’d rather him be scoring goals against OHL goalies then punching NHL faces.

  • Matt McNeely

    Well if Wilson didn’t stay the MP85 trade would look pretty bad for McPhee. And it sounds like Oates had a lot to do with it too. Not surprising they would want to give this thing time to play out in their favor.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    dying

  • dylan wheatley

    How would his contract have affected a trade? If he’d been sent back down the OHL, and then subsequently traded to another NHL team, would that team have had to keep in the OHL as well, or would they have been able to bring him up?

    Maybe someone has expressed interest in him, and McPhee is keeping him up to eventually trade him?

  • JH

    Trolling commenters do not motivate me, either.

  • JH

    I agree that sometimes the explanations seem coy. I watched the interview with Oates and with Erat, and it sort of sounds like they DID put Erat on the line with Wilson to give him a line-mentor until they made a decision whether to keep Wilson up here or not. Maybe, maybe not, but it seems like that could explain some of Erat being on the 4L. I still have plenty of trust in Oates – it’s his first full season; we’ll have a much larger body of work upon which to judge him at the end of the season, which hopefully will be in June.

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    hashtag expensive date

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    hashtag I’m single

  • Todd N

    haha..it’s a big maybe..tickets was expensive enough..if i were to get a jersey it wont be at VC. maybe a knockoff from China on ebay LOL

  • Priscilla Villanueva

    agreed. he’s not scoring here. he ain’t ready. you can’t convince me that this guy is a better prospect than Forsberg when he’s just punching people in the face. That’s entertaining. But this is a winning league. this is not a development league..

  • Priscilla Villanueva

    here i definitely agree. there was no check finishing. they looked lazy and were dragging ass.

  • Priscilla Villanueva

    I will say this for this decision: high risk. You gotta think that Ted doesn’t want to be a loser of a team for the Winter Classic. If this shit sucks – heads will roll.

  • Dan

    There’s no Amen button, but I looked for it.

  • Matt Root

    *please be Mojo, please be Mojo*