Alex Steen is Great, Alex Ovechkin is Greater

steen leader

Alexander Steen leads the NHL in offense. He’s got 17 goals and 9 assists in 18 games– including a 13-game point streak. He should be congratulated for that.

la dee

La dee freaking da.

When a player goes on a hot streak like this, the conversation sometimes loses perspective. I don’t mean to take anything away from Steen– what he has done is fantastic– but it’s not gonna last. Let’s break it down.

Steen has put 64 shots on goal and has 17 goals to show for it.

That’s a 26.6% shooting percentage. One of every four shots he takes becomes a goal. That’s 18.1% higher than league average and 16.7% higher than Steen’s career average.

So when Alex Steen is shooting, somehow every goalie becomes a .734 save percentage goalie. It won’t last.

Steen averages 3.5 shots per game. If he keeps up his shooting pace, he’ll get 224 more shots. Assuming he shoots his career average, that’s 22 goals– for a season total of 39 goals. Great.

Meanwhile, Alex Ovechkin averages nearly 6 shots per game. Ovi is shooting 14.3% this season– only 2% above his career average. If Ovi continues this season’s shooting pace and converts at his career average, that’s another 45 goals …for a total of 60. Yeah: a 60-goal season.

Shot totals > Shooting percentage.

(Fun fact: Mathieu Perreault had 16 goals on 60 shots last season. That was just one tenth of a percentage point less than Steen.)

Steen is doing great, but every year we see players start the season with a hot shooting percentages, and they inevitably cool off over time. Steen might be scoring like crazy now, but he won’t sustain it. And with Stamkos hurt and Ovi shooting like it’s 2009 again, the current frontrunner for the Rocket Richard is obvious.

this guy

  • Chris Cerullo

    His shooting % is really rather annoying.

  • dylan wheatley

    hahaha was this really necessary

  • http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ Peter Hassett

    YUP

  • Jayleigh Cape

    All in-depth over analysis aside…. that gif, tho! Hahahahahahahaha!!!

  • Darla

    Boy sure looks demented there.

  • Chris

    I happened to be listening to Beat It when I opened up this post. Gotta say that GIF is funny with that song playing in the background

  • Julie Fainberg

    That face tho

  • JenniferH

    Ovi! Ovi! Ovi!

  • charlie

    shouldn’t ovi’s shooting percentage right now be 16% over his normal percentage? (14.3-12.3)/12.3 = 0.1626. 2% above normal would be 12.55%, eh???

  • charlie

    percentages of percents are so damn confusing

  • Priscilla Villanueva

    Rob Ford. It’s uncanny.