Update on a Replacement for ExtraSkater.com

RIP

I miss it already.

I’ve had a bunch of conversations with people since writing a proposal for a new stat site to fill the void left by ExtraSkater.com. There are a lot of exciting developments, so I’ll just use this space to fill you in and solicit more input from you.

First, to all the folks who have left comments and sent emails: thanks! We’ve got a big pool of talented and passionate geeks who are eager to help out. I’ve not responded to anyone yet as I’ve been taking your notes under advisement and speaking to some folks who are working on similar (but not identical) projects. To everyone who is waiting on a reply from me: I should be in getting in touch soon.

Second, there’s some serious competition out there. That’s a very good thing, and I’m using “competition” facetiously. I’ve been on a few email threads with stat geeks and developers who are well on their way to publishing new sites. These sites look primed to meet some of the core features of Extra Skater and even provide a surprising amount of novel stuff. It’s early, but I’d be surprised if at least one of these sites isn’t up by October. It’s exciting, and the people behind these projects should and will be congratulated.

One result of that good news is the appetite and pressing concern for the project I defined– a free, open-source solution for extensible hockey stats– will be much lower. But I don’t think it’s gone entirely.

I’m gonna reiterate my plan and explain why it’s a) still valid, b) novel, and c) kind of easy.

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joe-b-trotz

Photo: @monumentalntwrk

It never ends, and I’m sorta okay with that. Today in #ALSIceBucketChallenge news, Capitals coach Barry Trotz and fashion maven Joe Beninati took the plunge. Monumental Network video’d the whole thing. It’s quite a production.

The promotion so far has raised over $40 million to fight amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Participants who get dumped on donate $10; those who fail to meet the challenge (e.g. me) donate $100.

I mention this because I consider what Joe and Barry did cheating. They dipped into the pool right after they got soaked, which means they were only chilly for like two seconds, tops. That’s not enough. So I think they should pony up another $90. Your thoughts?

Pretty pictures below.

UPDATE 4:45 PM: Caps Media Relations Manager Page Sagester says there was no cheating involved.

We are unable to confirm the report as we have not yet been invited to swim in the Caps’ hot cold tub.

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RIP.

It’s the twilight of the nerds. Along with Cam Charron, Darryl Metcalf (creator of Extra Skater) has been hired to join the nascent analytics department in Toronto. That’s terrific news for them personally and for Leafs fans in general, but it means a massive brain drain for NHL fans.

I expect ExtraSkater.com to be gone for good. Metcalf likely won’t have time to devote to it, and it might represent a conflict of interest to work on it. With that hiring, the Maple Leafs have taken away the single best resource for hockey fans and geeks and writers and coaches. Plus the other 29 GMs.

We can’t allow that. We need to replace Extra Skater.

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Mike Green Got Married, Looked Excellent

mike green married

Photo by @paul_dubs

Washington Capitals defenseman and fashion icon Mike Green has gotten hitched. Green married girlfriend Courtney on Saturday night in Calgary, as documented by Green’s friend Paul Woloshyn on Instagram.

Green, freshly shaven, looked slim in a simple tux with a bowtie.

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The End of the Conversation

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The hirings of Kyle Dubas as assistant GM in Toronto and Tyler Dellow as analytics expert in Edmonton have sent hockey’s good ol’ boys network into a panic. The contingent of hockey pundits who tout “intangibles” have long suspected and feared a reckoning at the hands of the spreadsheets. Now that it has finally happened, they effetely plead that the new era of analysis would not begin and end with Corsi:

These people miss the point. Advanced statistics aren’t just one piece in a bigger conversation. Advanced statistics are the end of the conversation.

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caps-shorthanded-goal

Photo: Patrick Smith

The Washington Capitals had one of the best power plays in the league last season. They scored 68 goals on 278 opportunities for a 23.4 percent conversion rate, just behind Pittsburgh. They fired 85.8 unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes on the PP, just behind San Jose. The Caps power play was deadly, but it was not perfect.

The Caps allowed ten shorthanded goals, the fourth highest total in the league. Alex Ovechkin, who played 93.2 percent of the Caps power play, fittingly, was on ice for 9 of those 10– sending his plus-minus, which is dumb and so is your face, down even further.

When we talk about things we want for the 2014-15 Capitals, ‘continued success on the power play’ is always part of it. But the Capitals should also look into what went wrong while playing a man up. Because it’s summer, and because I was worried that story about optimism might have made you unacceptably chipper, here’s a dour collection of 2013-14′s shorthanded goals and an assessment of who was to blame for each. Let’s party.

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gillis

Ed. note: Here’s F.O.T.B. Ben Lutz, aka the DC Sports Dork, with an RMNB guest spot all about head coach and GM hires. You can see more of Ben’s work on www.dcsportsdork.com. If you enjoy his stuff, feel free to join his facebook page.

While hockey fans were paying attention to the Stanley Cup Finals, a handful of NHL teams were focused on hiring a new head coach and/or general manager. The Capitals found their guys by hiring Brian McClellan and Barry Trotz as GM and coach, respectively. Pittsburgh pulled off the unthinkable by hiring ex-Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford as their new general manager.

Hires like these inevitably lead to questions about the candidates’ credentials and organizational philosophies. Is it a good idea to hire a coach that has experience or one with a fresh set of ideas? Does the same apply to hiring a general manager?

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Alex Ovechkin Has Favorited One Tweet; It Was His Own

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Tampa’s Steven Stamkos set off a mini firestorm this week just by favoriting a tweet that wondered aloud if he might ever play in Toronto. One month earlier we saw the same thing with Winnipeg’s Evander Kane, who favorited a tweet requesting that he come play for the Flyers.

Social media is a wild and wacky world; one that we as a society don’t fully understand. I deal with this a lot in my day job. Stuff is just not clear. Twitter’s “favorites” feature in particular is kinda poorly designed. It means different things to different people, and the feature is not nearly as private as the name suggests.

But the point I really want to make is this: Alex Ovechkin has favorited just one tweet, and it was his own.

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The End of the Trend

trotz and co

I’m really excited about the upcoming Caps season. After replacing Adam Oates with Barry Trotz, I predict the Caps will– finally– reverse their five-year decline and start to get better in 2014-15.

end-of-the-trend

But people who expect a coaching change to immediately transform the team into a Cup contender won’t find solace in the literature.

Teams changing coaches saw their Fenwick Close % increase about 0.35%; after a coaching switch, teams averaged one more Corsi attempt for and 0.4 more Corsi attempts against per 60 minutes, and saw very slight decreases in shooting and save percentages.

Nick Emptage, NHLNumbers.com

Long-term, there seems to be a 1-point boost (from 48.4% to 49.4%) once a team replaces its coach.

Gabriel Desjardins (I think), Arctic Ice Hockey

By that math (and before accounting for roster changes) we might expect the Caps to have around 48-percent puck possession next season. That would kind of suck. I’m a bit more optimistic.

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Offensive Defensemen and the Orlov Myth

Photo: Chris Gordon

First, a quick literature review.

“Orlov is a talented, smooth skating offensive defenseman who prefers to press the attack and create scoring opportunities at all times.”

 - Hockey’s Future. No date provided.

Q: The public at large in the U.S. knows only that Orlov is a D-man. Is he a “stay-at-home” defenseman or an offensive defenseman?

A: I would say it’s offensive… But we don’t know what the coach says in the locker room. He’s not a “stay-at-home” defenseman, that’s for sure. His attacking skills have actually led him to play some games as a forward. He scored twice that game.

- Evgeni Starikov, a Metallurg Novokuznetsk fan, to RMNB. January 2010.

“He loves to attack on the rush and this will lead to him earning points on a team like the Capitals (though they have become more defense-minded).”

Dobber Hockey. April 2012.

He’s a great offensive player. He’s very effective on the power play and everything. It definitely hurts when he’s not there.”

Cam Schilling to the Washington Times. December 2012.

Since even before Dmitry Orlov made his Caps debut back in 2011-12, we’ve heard that he’s an offensive defenseman, the eventual successor to Mike Green’s throne as the Caps blue liner most likely to attack.

I’m not so sure.

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