Photo credit: Scott Levy

Okay, the subject line is a joke, but some people are being silly about Derek Stepan‘s game-winning goal last night. They’re saying it was Alex Ovechkin‘s fault– that his laziness on defense is a problem.

Here’s how it really went down.

After a long shift in the defensive zone, Marcus Johansson failed to clear the zone and pass to Alex Ovechkin, who was skating toward Lundqvist at center ice. A scramble for the puck ensued, and Stepan scored from the weak side. Ovechkin skated lazily towards Stepan as it happened.

Bad visual, but that’s all.

Deadspin’s headline for the play is Alexander Ovechkin Would Prefer Not To Play Defense because it fits cozily into a pernicious media narrative, but it’s not actually true. Recall if you will minutes earlier that same game when Ovechkin’s defensive backcheck was so enthusiastic it turns Martin Erat’s wrist into kindling.

Here’s the very first frame of the video of the play:

Ovechkin is hauling ass away from the play because he’s expecting a breakout pass so that he can enter the offensive zone on a rail and score the game-tying goal. He’s expecting competence from his linemates, which was the real tragic error here– not some dubious distaste for defense.

But that doesn’t stop media folks from using this an opportunity to lambast Alex Ovechkin for the same old thing. Media is a business– I get that, but let’s be honest: those writers and pundits are serving an agenda, not informing their audience.

Photo credit: Greg Fiume

Saturday night revealed the Capitals’ playoff foe, and that foe is really, really familiar.

The New York Rangers locked up the 6-seed and will be headed to Washington early this week to begin the quarterfinal round. This will be the seventh time the teams have met and the third time RMNB will have written about a WSH-NYR series. The John Tortorella Rangers are a shot-blocking, workaday-type crew– but this year they’ve added convincing possession to the mix (they’re ranked sixth in unblocked shot attempts at even strength when the score is close). The Rangers may be a better match-up for the Caps than the Senators (whose Craig Anderson posted the best goalie stats this year) and the Isles (whose John Tavares is a convincing young star), but the Rags are no slouch either.

If you’re already anxious, you’re not alone. But this is the playoffs, where the gentle hum of anxiety is your stalwart dance partner.

Like I said above, NYR directs 53.81% of shots at the enemy’s net, whereas the Capitals tilt the ice against them with just 47.85% possession. That could be trouble in facing a goalie like Henrik Lundqvist, who can be trusted to stop 92% of shots with some regularity.

Montreal blog Habs Eyes on the Prize illustrated how that puck possession correlates with postseason success. The top-right quadrant are very low-possession teams, who never make the postseason. The top-left, where the Caps fit in, contains slightly stronger teams, but ones who rarely go far in the playoffs and have won just one Cup out of 70 attempts (and I’d put an asterisk on that winner if I could). The bottom-left quadrant is strong possession teams, who make the postseason with regularity and often make it far. And the bottom-right is full of the rare ice-tilting crazies, who are your perennial favorites to win. You might wanna zoom in on this one.

The Caps would be at top-left, and the Rangers at bottom-left.

This week will see Rick Nash return to postseason play for the first time since 2009. In his 10-year career, Nash has played just 4 playoff games. The Jackets got swept by the Wings that year. He’ll be eager to produce in a Game That Matters– though the raw shock of playing hockey in the month of May might be enough to confuse him into irrelevance, which will at least be fun to watch.

Unlike the Caps-Rangers series this year. As J.P. pointed out last night, the Caps couldn’t beat the Rangers this year except by the shootout. (Point of order: there are no shootouts in the postseason.) Those games were punishing to watch.

On February 1, the Caps got some excellent ‘tending from Braden Holtby (20 shots against in the first period alone), but the offense was MIA. The March 10th loss was one of the worst games of the season, possibly due to Mike Milbury’s inane jeremiad during intermission. The March 21st shootout win was the first time I was willing to consider the Caps making the postseason– although they did surrender a two-goal lead in that one.

That triad of games isn’t by itself encouraging for the Caps’ chances next week, but there are some reasons to feel bullish.

The Capitals’ magic bean, an extraordinarily effective power play, will be crucial to a win– but getting those penalties might be a problem. The Rangers were one of the least penalized teams in the league this year– going shorthanded just 148 times compared to the Caps’ 163. Once a man-down, the Rangers killed 81.1%– right around league average. The opposite (inverse? contrapositive?) is also important: Washington’s PK is in the league’s bottom-5 at 78%, although New York isn’t quite deadly on their own power play, converting just 15.7% of the time– the 8th worst conversion rate in the league.

Of course, the secret to the power play is getting them in the first place. Drawing penalties usually requires that your team has possession of the puck and is doing something scary with it. This will sound trite, but it’s true: the Capitals’ clearest path to victory is based on shot volume– putting as many shots a possible on Lundqvist with traffic up front fighting for rebounds and drawing penalties. Once penalties are drawn, the Caps need only feed on Adam Oates‘ magic trough of power play oats. Adam’s oats.

Speaking of Adam, though the Caps and Rags will be meeting for the third time in recent memory, this will be the third head coach we’ll see behind Washington’s bench. Bruce Boudreau’s trap-Caps made quick work of New York in 2011 when Jason Chimera delivered the fatal blow. And just one year ago, Dale Hunter’s coin-toss Caps lost their final toss in a taut, seven-game series. The 2013 Capitals may share some personnel with those earlier iterations, but this is not the same team.

The Oates Caps are still inchoate, still defining their identity. They’re dynamic on the breakout, deliberate in zone entry, and devastating on the power play– but those are conclusions drawn from the scant evidence of a 48-game season. If the Caps are overly reliant on their top line and the man-advantage to score, then this may be an un-fun series. If the Caps expect to score one goal for every ten shots on net, they may be disappointed.

You’ve probably heard this part before, but I’m certain the Caps can win this if they crash the net. It’ll take secondary scoring, a deluge of shots from Alex Ovechkin, Braden Holtby playing like we know he can, Mike Green at 100% health, and a whole lotta dirty goals from guys like the Wagon– unafraid to plant themselves in New York’s paint and scrap for the puck. It can be done.

The Washington Capitals are in the driver’s seat for the Southeast division crown. And even though tonight’s game against the Jets looms large, a loss won’t kill the Caps’ chances of making the playoffs — though it will make it much more difficult to win the division. If they lose tonight and manage to still win their final two games, they will be guaranteed a playoff spot.

As it stands right now, the Caps have a 91.1% chance of making the postseason and an 86.7% of winning the Southeast. The Winnipeg Jets have a steeper climb. Despite a big win over Buffalo on Monday, the Jets have just a 31.6% probability of making it to the Stanley Cup playoffs and a 13.3% of becoming division champs.

There are a lot of ways this could shake out, and a lot of possible tiebreakers to consider.

Tiebreaker Rules

From the NHL:

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the position of the clubs is determined in the following order:

1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column.
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any “odd” games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season. NOTE: In standings a victory in a shootout counts as one goal for, while a shootout loss counts as one goal against.

• We can easily eliminate #1. By the end of the season, all of the NHL teams will have the same number of games played, 48.
• ROW is a little tricky. A lot will depend on who (if anyone) will take the lead in this stat tonight. Caps having a game in hand seems to be a big factor here. This one may also be tied.
• “Adjusted head-to-head” comes in full effect here. The Caps win in Winnipeg on March 2nd is considered an “odd” game and excluded from this tiebreaker. The Caps, however, have a 4-2 lead in points earned in other games. So the Jets can only tie it with a regulation win. Even their OT win will mean Caps have it.
• It’s highly unlikely that it will come to this, but if it will, Caps have a huge advantage in goal differential.

Scenarios

These charts show how the rest of the season may play out based on tonight’s game.

Legend: GP – Games Played, Pts – Points, ROW – Regulation/OT Wins, H2HPA – Head-to-Head Points Adjusted (will not change after tonight), POP% – Possibility of making playoffs. Worst-case scenario represents what would happen if the Caps lose all of their remaining games in regulation and Jets win their remaining game in regulation.

Winning tonight, Caps clinch and won’t even need tiebreakers – they have a three-point lead that will be impossible to overcome. That’s too easy, so…

The Caps still clinch with an overtime win, but they’ll need some tiebreaker magic to do so. In “Worst-case scenario” part (the Caps lose all remaining games, the Jets win), none of the most important parameters allow the Caps to clinch, so we go to head-to-head points, where the Caps have a sizable advantage.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to this. A Caps’ shootout win will get them one step closer to the promised land, but the Jets’ would still be alive as they could still win the ROW tiebreaker. Please notice that this loss will actually help the Jets’ playoff chances as they will tie the 7th place Rangers and 8th place Senators in points. Those two teams, however, have a game in hand right now and if the Rangers beat the Panthers tonight, the Jets chances will fall out, and the Caps would still clinch with a single point in their last two games.

The Caps’ chances to make the postseason are still solid if they lose in the shootout, but the Jets would get past the magical 50% threshold. All of a sudden, two Southeast teams in the playoffs looks like a possibility. The Caps would need a regulation win in of the last two games to clinch the division due to the higher H2HPA.

An overtime loss for the Caps. And now it becomes a complete mess. The Caps’ chances are still favorable, but the Jets have inched closer. To clinch, the Caps would have to get at least three points in their last two games.

The disaster scenario. The Jets will nearly tie the Caps in playoff chances if they win tonight in 60 minutes. The Caps would need two wins in their last two games to win the race regardless of the outcome of the Jets-Canadiens game.

Probability percentages from SportsClubStats. Also, please note that odds will be also influenced by the outcomes of other games tonight, particularly Florida-NY Rangers and Carolina-NY Islanders. In either game, a win by the Southeast division team would improve the Caps’ chances.

Photo credit: Andre Ringuette

Lots of smart and informed people have been dead wrong about Alex Ovechkin this year. Also wrong: Pierre McGuire, who I guess is smart and informed, but the jury is out on if he qualifies as human. Regardless, way back in January when Ovechkin was trying his first stint on the right wing, McGuire gave an interview to an Ottawa radio station where he delivered a litany of Wrong Things He Should Be Embarrassed About Now (if his species is even capable of embarrassment).

I wonder if anyone transcribed this interview. WAIT. THAT’S DAN STEINBERG’S MUSIC.

To set the stage: The Caps have won just one of their first four games. In those games, Alex Ovechkin has just one assist and one goal– nothing at even strength. Aaaaaand go.

“He’s a left winger with Nick Backstrom. That’s the best place for him. That’s where he’s comfortable. He likes to fly in the zone, he likes to get up the ice, he likes to do that one-on-one where he cuts wide, goes to his left and then can cut back to the middle and try to beat the defenseman. But everybody in the league’s aware of that move, so he’s gonna have to come up with a different move, or he’s gonna have to trail the play and look for one-time chances…”

Ovechkin switched back to left wing for a few games before making the right wing a permanent change. Then he scored 21 goals in 31 points in 20 games.

“I don’t think Ovechkin’s ever gonna [get goals by crashing the net], so you’re gonna have to just play off of what Ovechkin’s good at. And what he’s good at is shooting the puck and leading the rush. That’s what he’s really good at, and he’s probably gonna have to go that way.”

Ovechkin is definitely not leading the rush. He now typically allows his linemates to make the zone entry while he gets in position to score. And his slapshot distances on the power play have dropped by more than 10 feet since last season.

“Do you think he’s capable of scoring 50 goals in this league again?” McGuire was then asked.

“No. I do not,” he said.

Alex Ovechkin would be on a 55-goal pace in a full-length season, and that includes his blue period at the beginning of the year.

“[Ovechkin's] lost a gear. He’s about a half-gear to a gear short of what he used to be with his speed. He used to have that one extra burst that could get him free for a lot of open opportunities. He does not have that anymore.”

And yet, Alex Ovechkin is getting more shots on goal than last year (4.62, up from 3.88).

Quick reminder: Pierre McGuire actually gets paid to talk about hockey. There are actual, non-reptile humans across the continent who consider him both insightful and uncreepy.

I despair.

P.S. Read DC Sports Bog.

Photo credit: bezformata.ru

At the end of March, Ted Leonsis wrote on his blog about — at the time — two Capitals prospects that could have a dynamic effect on the franchise in the coming years. Leonsis said of Filip Forsberg and Evgeny Kuznetsov: “We have two former first round picks playing overseas who will one day don Caps jerseys and really excite our fans. We are hopeful that next season, one of the players will make our team, but they have to earn that right. Maybe at some point next season, fans could see both players in Caps uniforms, time will tell.”

Since then, the Capitals have traded Forsberg to Nashville and he’s already made his NHL debut, playing on the Predators’ first line and powerplay unit. But Kuznetsov’s situation is a bit murkier. Ted, while not directly addressing who are what, seems to be suggesting in his final sentence that Kuzya could play for the team next season.

Not surprisingly, since Mr. Leonsis’s blog post was published, we have been inundated with questions regarding Kuznetsov’s future.

@russianmachine Can Kuzy report to the Caps after Olympics and KHL season next year? In time for Caps last run before the 2014 playoffs?

— Luke Adomanis (@LukeAdomanis) April 2, 2013

After doing some research, we can see why Ted is hesitant on guaranteeing anything.

When Are The Olympics? Could Kuznetsov Leave The Team After It Concludes?

The 2014 Winter Olympics will be held in Sochi, Russia, from February 7th to February 23rd. If the NHL allows its players to participate in the Winter Games like it did in 2009-10 (which is no sure thing), the league will break for two weeks during the regular season. Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League, where Kuzya plays currently, did the same thing in its inaugural season and will do so again next year too.

Kuznetsov’s contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk is ironclad and respected by the NHL. Basically, Kuznetsov can’t just leave Russia for the Capitals after the Olympics end. The only way the talented prospect could leave Traktor early is if he buys out the deal or if Traktor’s GM and he mutually agree to terminate it. That would be highly unlikely mid-season and during Traktor’s playoff push.

However, once Traktor’s season concludes, anything is possible. There is precedent for KHL players coming over at this point, most recently with Nashville’s Alex Radulov and the Capitals’ Dmitry Orlov.

Kuznetsov’s Contract Ends on April 30th, 2014.

Per the KHL’s Legal Regulations, chapter 4, article 16, paragraph 6: “[Player] contracts must end on April 30th of the year concluding the contract’s duration.” That means that once a team’s season concludes, such as Metallurg Novokuznetsk’s did in late February 2011, a player is still under team control until the first day of May. That season, since Metallurg failed to make the playoffs, Orlov asked if he could get out of his deal so he could start his professional career in North America early. The club, wanting to keep their hometown player happy, agreed and terminated his contract. A few days later, Orlov signed a entry-level deal professional tryout contract with Washington and reported to Hershey.

This may be the most likely situation for Kuznetsov, though McPhee would sign Kuzya to an entry-level contract if he wants him in Washington immediately.

So When Will Kuznetsov’s Season End Next Year?

Without seeing how both leagues will adjust for the Olympics next year, it’s hard to know 100%. But let’s concentrate on both leagues’ 2009-10 season. Since the KHL starts its regular season in early September — a full month before the NHL, the KHL’s Gagarin Cup playoffs start early too: March 7th. That’s five full weeks before the NHL’s that year (April 11, 2010).

The past two seasons Traktor Chelyabinsk has been one of the best teams in the KHL. Last season, they went to the Eastern Conference Finals. This season they lost in the Gagarin Cup Finals, being edged out in six games by Alex Ovechkin’s lockout team, Dynamo Moscow.

Let’s say Traktor Chelyabinsk goes to the Finals next year. Kuznetsov could potentially be available to the Capitals during the first round of the playoffs. If Traktor has a bad season and misses the playoffs altogether, he could be available in early March. Again, as long as he and Traktor can agree to terminate the contract early and Kuzya has a desire to continue playing, this is a possibility.

Wait? Aren’t There Roster Limits Or Something After The Trade Deadline? He Can’t Just Join The Team In The Playoffs Right?

The new NHL CBA allows the Caps to make unlimited roster moves within their organization before and after the playoffs begin. The only caveat is that they can’t have more than four recalls on the active roster at the same time, which would not apply to Kuznetsov. The Capitals also cannot have more than 50 players under contract at one time. If George McPhee is planning for Kuznetsov to come over next season, he will have the flexibility to sign him.

A good example of a NHL team signing a player and him coming over during the playoffs would be Chris Kreider of the New York Rangers. Last season, the former collegian player signed with the club the day of his team’s first playoff game. He made his NHL debut in Game Three of the Rangers first round series.

Does Kuznetsov Want To Play in the NHL?

After meeting him at Development Camp and following him over the last few years with my team, I think he absolutely does. I believe that the Olympics and money played a huge factor in staying in Russia until 2014. And really, he wouldn’t have a Capitals air freshener in his car and constantly wear Capitals hats if he wasn’t excited about playing in the NHL someday. But this is the x factor. Does Kuznetsov want to be here? Does Kuznetsov want to continue playing in 2013-14 after Traktor’s season ends?

Conclusion

Kuznetsov could potentially be available to the Capitals next season at the earliest, around March 7th, and at the latest, May 1st.

Additional reporting by Fedor Fedin.

In Tuesday’s win over the Montreal Canadiens, Alex Ovechkin scored his 26th goal of the season. For about an hour, he was the sole occupant of the NHL goal-scoring lead– until Tampa’s Steven Stamkos recorded his 26th with a game-winner against the Senators. Stamkos are Ovechkin are now neck-and-neck in a race for the Rocket Richard Trophy, given each year to the player who scores the most goals. I’m wondering if we can figure out who has the edge here.

But first, on Wednesday afternoon Neil Greenberg observed that Ovechkin’s career is prone to streaks and slumps when it comes to shooting percentage.

[chart] Ovechkin Sh%, 20-game moving average over last three years twitpic.com/ciek2f. Won’t last forever so enjoy the ride.

— Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) April 10, 2013

He’s right. The rate of goals Ovechkin scores will almost certainly fall off from its current high, and we don’t know when it’ll happen. If Ovechkin can maintain his shooting percentage for the next 8 games, the Richard is his– but I doubt he can do that. Still, he still has a damn good chance, and that’s mostly due to his inhumanly high shot volume.

That chart shows how many shots Alex Ovechkin has fired per game over the last three seasons. Ovechkin’s lifetime average is a little over five shots a game, so notice how dramatically he dropped off during the Hunter era. For whatever reason, that’s when people-who-are-paid-to-have-people-talk-about-the-things-they-talk-about said that Ovechkin was washed-up. And now please direct your attention to the far right, the most recent block of games, where Ovi is once again generating shots nearly on par with the Boudreau era. If Ovi’s recent spike in shot output is more than just a fluctuation, then happy days are here again and Adam Oates is an evil genius. His pairing Ovechkin with Backstrom, moving him to the right wing, and prioritizing him on the power play have almost restored Ovechkin to the player he used to be.

But it’s early, and I don’t know if that’s true yet. So to figure out what’s happening with the Richard race, we’re gonna try it two ways. To estimate how many goals Stamkos and Ovechkin might score in the remainder of the season, we run a simple formula:

games remaining x shots per game x shooting percentage

First, here’s how that works out using each player’s career stats. That includes Ovi’s insane-o first couple of seasons and the drudgery of the Hunter grind.

Ovechkin comes out ahead by about a goal.

But Ovechkin today isn’t shooting like Ovechkin from 2008-09. The ravages of his old age (a creaky 27) and the Capitals’ shift from fun hockey to whatever last year was certainly slowed his output. So I’ll do the table again using just the last three seasons of data, when Ovechkin has shot less often and scored at a lower rate on those shots.

Stamkos is the winner.

So the real question is whether is Ovechkin truly back, or if we’re just seeing one of those glimpses I talked about the other week. But at this point, the Richard Trophy is just an 8-game sprint, and it will be probably decided by the natural variance of hockey.

As Neil’s chart showed above, shooting percentage fluctuates a lot– especially in small samples. We know both Stamkos and Ovechkin are elite scorers, so it’ll probably come down to who gets lucky, who gets more ice time against the Panthers, or who gets more power plays because some plug on the other team gives up a hooking penalty. And John Tavares is only two goals behind; it’d take just one bad night for a goalie to put him in the lead. This is a cop-out answer, but no one can accurately predict this race. And it doesn’t really matter in the long run.

Don’t get me wrong: the Rocket Richard Trophy is a big deal. Winning it would re-establish Alex Ovechkin as one of the pre-eminent stars of the sports world (and can I be the first the float the idea of an Ovi-Maria wedding in Las Vegas as he accepts the trophy?) But in the long run, what will truly matter for the Capitals is how Ovi performs next year– and the one after that.

The difference between an Alex Ovechkin who averages six shots a game and one who averages three is like 22 goals a season. Ovechkin is still going to slow down with age, but if Adam Oates can put that off for another year or two… well, then, is party now.

Photo credit: AHL Tumblr

When the Caps traded Filip Forsberg to Nashville Predators, a divided fanbase described the return as “Martin Erat and some other guy”. That other guy, Michael Latta, is more than just an add-in for the deal.

At 21 years of age, Latta, who played for Nashville’s AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals, is nearing his NHL debut. Despite his relatively small stature (6-foot, 215 pounds), he hits hard and can drop the gloves. Latta is an agitator, which was one reason why the Caps drafted Tom Wilson last year while talented players like Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Collberg, and Mark Jankowski were still available.

A native of Kitchener, Latta also has some offense to go with the rough stuff. Since his debut in the AHL, he’s been slightly above the .5 point per game mark, pretty good for a player who projects to be a bottom-six NHLer. Through 118 AHL games Latta has 63 points.

Latta was limited by a wrist injury last year, but his 28 points in 51 games were good for seventh on his team in scoring. He was also second in penalty minutes, behind former NHL enforcer Zach Stortini. This year, he was third in points and first in PIMs on the Ads roster.

Latta, who was selected in the third round of the 2009 draft by the Preds, plays where he’s needed. The Caps don’t have many centermen in the system who can step up and play in the NHL. College players like Travis Boyd, Caleb Herbert, and Thomas DiPauli are years away from becoming NHL players — if they ever do. Ryan Potulny and Casey Wellman play both center and wing and, while older than Latta, haven’t been able to establish themselves as NHL players. The Bears’ first-line center is the AHL’s leading point-scorer, Jeff Taffe, who doesn’t have a contract with the Capitals. After his trade to the Caps, Latta has automatically become a #1 Caps center prospect (of course, if you don’t consider Evgeny Kuznetsov as a center, which we do not).

As the Caps acquire more highly-paid players, Latta and his cheap contract may become a boon for the team.

what else am i going to do for the rest of the day now the trade deadline is over? tough life

— Michael Latta (@Latta17) April 3, 2013

Photo credit: Greg Fiume

The Washington Capitals’ most valuable player is probably Braden Holtby. After a rough start, Holtby has improved to a solid 91.5% save percentage and recorded four shutouts. That success has been a big part of the Caps’ turnaround in the standings, but it has also given short shrift to Michal Neuvirth, whose future with the Capitals has become murky.

Neuvirth has started just 9 games this season. Coach Adam Oates has consistently turned to Holtby’s hot hand (despite how nebulous that myth is) whenever he had the option. Neuvirth has missed his recent opportunities to start due to illness and then general wooziness following a shot to his mask at practice last week. With Neuvirth playing his worst in a contract year at the same time Holtby is locking down the #1 goalie slot, no wonder there’s chatter about Neuvirth getting courted by the KHL.

Neuvirth has saved about 90% of the shots he’s faced this season, a bit below his career average of 90.8%. Of course, that’s coming from a meager sample of games (just 9 starts and 10 games played), most of them from when the Caps were atrocious (half of Neuvirth’s games were played in January). Defensive breakdowns and odd-man rushes demolished both goalies’ stats in those early games and locked the team in the basement of the Eastern Conference, though we shouldn’t absolve Neuvirth of his performance.

Since around Valentine’s, it’s been all Holtby all the time, and while the Caps have seen their possession game erode over that span, the team’s goaltending has definitely improved. Goal support and some sharpshooting has certainly helped Holtby as well. It looks like Holtby has gotten all the breaks. This next table compares the goalies’ performance and team support in games they’ve started*.

Neuvirth and Holtby have seen a similar volume of shots in their starts, but Holtby has certainly done a better job with it. And while the Caps put around the same number of shots on the other team’s net, the puck goes in a lot more when Holtby starts. That drastic change in goal support is one of the main reasons why “wins” is an awful way to measure a goalie’s performance. That said, it’s apparent that Holtby has been the superior goalie even measuring purely off save rate.

Everything seems to be going wrong for the young Czech goalie: declined performance, no goal support, failures in team defense, badly timed illnesses and injuries, and a coach who loves to play the hot hand (even though, again, that’s a silly proposition). Neuvirth has remained publicly optimistic despite the setbacks, telling the Post’s Katie Carrera, “I wish I play more but it is what it is. I gotta handle it, but I’m looking forward to next game.”

With only twelve games remaining before the end of the season (and Neuvirth’s contract), time is running out. Cue rumors of contract offers from the KHL!

We first heard the rumor on a Czech site that you’ll have to translate for yourself. Neuvirth’s European agent then confirmed it as quoted in a report by Sports.ru and translated by RMNB’s Igor Kleyner:

“Neuvirth has drawn interest in the KHL. Re-signing with Washington will depend on how further negotiations will go,” said agent Vladimir Vujtek, according to hokej.cz.

Then, via email, Neuvirth’s NHL agent Patrik Stefan confirmed interest from the KHL, but emphasized that Neuvirth is focused on helping his team make the playoffs.

Neuvirth will be a restricted free agent at the end of this season. His current contract is worth $1.15 million a year. Given his troubled performance this year, the team’s reliance on Holtby as its number one goalie, and offers from teams outside the league, Neuvirth’s contract negotiations should be pretty interesting. Neuvirth will be seeking an opportunity to play and a contract to take him into unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely the Capitals would be willing to part with his rights, but it’s difficult to predict at this point what a new contract may look like.

* Caveat: Started game stats includes figures for the replacement goalie (twice for Holtby, once for Neuvy). That’s not ideal, although it doesn’t seem to color the data dramatically.

As Tuesday’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes got started, I opened up the SportsYapper app on my iPhone. That was my first mistake.

Bombarded by all the commercials and promotions on Comcast SportsNet, I had already downloaded the app but had never been inclined to use it. It seemed like Twitter, just stupider. Maligned by the media and by us, SportsYapper is like the Columbus Blue Jackets of social media. And after a few hours on the service, I can report that I learned nothing. It is exactly what we thought: Twitter, just stupider.

A smattering of Yapps.

“[W]e wished there was a place similar to Twitter or Facebook, but that was just for sports fans while they’re watching the game,” the founders write on their website.

An excellent idea, but we already have an outlet like that. It’s called Twitter or Facebook.

It’s a completely redundant service. Its purpose is already served by more established applications — ones you can access over the web, unlike SportsYapper, which is partially bankrolled by Yankees first basemen Mark Teixeira.

You wonder what kind of person would use SportsYapper. After one night in the Capitals Yapp Zone, I have an idea. He is angry, he is without spellcheck, and he is filled with fervent antagonism towards Mike Green. I counted more than 30 frothing attacks on the former Norris Trophy finalist in the first period alone.

“I’d take Shutz over green any day!” @tmanlee wrote.

“Mike green sounds horrible to my ears. ew” added @mattellison_.

Some, though, defended the 27-year-old — I think.

“Really greens fault wow u ppl r hard on him,” said @charliemadore.

Green, however, would prove the Yappers wrong just minutes later. Early in the second period, Green tallied a goal in his third straight game with a blistering bomb from the point. SportsYappers were quick to admit their error.

“NOW, we can get Green out of hete,” @mikecarrico editorialized.

Mike Green scored again. His sins were not absolved.

“Still green u need traded or moved to offense,” suggested @joeglock730.

“He would be a great 3rd line winger , no D-man for sure !!” estimated @toxicxmo.

“I still hate green,” said @everagejakeff.

The game continued, and there were more vile outbursts, grammatical errors, and exclamation marks. I started to gloss over them after awhile. I switched back over to Twitter, swearing never to return. The Capitals went on to win 5-3. It was nice.

I could go on about SportsYapper, but I shouldn’t. Instead I’ll let one SportsYapper do it for me, as he sums up my feelings superbly.

SportsYapper is “absoutley pathetic.”

Photo credit: Bridget Samuels

In speaking to the press last Friday, George McPhee talked about about pretty much everything there is to talk about: his plans for the trade deadline, the Capitals’ outlook for future success, and what in particular has been the team’s problem this year.

And he was wrong about pretty much everything. McPhee either doesn’t recognize how bad his team is or he refuses to acknowledge it publicly.

But first, this mandatory and not-at-all untrue GIF:

So I’ve collected quotes from McPhee’s Q&A with Mike Vogel and his press conference with the whole press corps. I implore you to watch and read the entirety of both, as I’m about to cherry-pick the hell out of them. Below each quote is my opinion/evidence-based analysis/bloviation.

“Those [formerly injured] players have made a real impact since they’ve returned and our team starts to line up the way that we thought it would and we’ve become a good team.”

Certainly Brooks Laich has made an impact since he returned (1 goal, 3 assists, positive possession despite starting in the D zone a lot). Mike Green‘s comeback has been marked by anecdotes both good and bad, but he too has been solid considering his overwhelmingly defensive assignments so far. I’m not sure we can say the same for Dmitry Orlov, who has just one shot on goal in over 75 minutes of ice time and has no detectable influence on ice tilt thus far (one caveat being his team-lowest 38.7% starts in the offensive zone).

But McPhee’s argument is that the team has become good by virtue of these players’ returns, and I don’t think the data back him up.

At the end of February, the Capitals had very low possession — 47.24% of unblocked even-strength shots went the right way– and below average PDO (a combination of shooting % and goalie save percentage, 97.9%). A little over a month later, PDO has jumped up to 100.5% thanks in part to some great goaltending, but possession has dropped to 46.87%. The statistical noise that is PDO is just making it seem like the Caps have improved, but they have not.

The Washington Capitals may actually be worse now than they were earlier in the season. Yes, they have more wins, but they’re still plagued by defensive breakdowns, and the pattern of their play bodes really poorly for their future. I worry that injuries are just an escape goat, a convenient excuse for a team that is either missing crucial components or effective coordination (or both).

“We like this team going forward. We like the players we have in our system; they’ll be real good fits for this team the way things are lined up now. The organization is in really good shape and it’s a real solid team. We’ve just got our fingers crossed that we can get a little bit healthier here and have a real nice run.”

Again, the Capitals are currently ranked in the bottom five at puck possession, the single best predictor of future success, and they are trending in the wrong direction since that ugly start to the season. That is neither good shape nor real solid.

It’s tempting but unwise to expect a “real nice run” in the playoffs. The players this team has seen return in the last month have not made them appreciably better by any metric that predicts success, and even if they get into the playoffs, they probably wouldn’t last long. Recent Stanley Cup-winning teams are the ones that have obliterated their opponents when it comes to possession. The Caps were that team back in 08-09, but they’re not today. The question shouldn’t be how to keep their fingers crossed to buck a convincingly determinative system; it should be how to return to that level of performance.

Blaming injury often a scoundrel’s refuge. McPhee did the same thing last year, and back then I agreed to some extent, as a healthy Nicky Backstrom tends to make the players around him better. But that’s not a well we should drink from often. One player– even one as good as Backstrom or Laich– isn’t the difference between a 47% possession lottery pick team and a 59% possession Cup contender. The Caps’ problems are way bigger than one or two injured players.

“We’ve got a chance to be a real good team and have a good run.”

He is absolutely correct. They have a chance. The Capitals have something like a 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs. That’s not a good chance, but it is by definition a chance. Now, the team’s chances of actually going deep in the playoffs are worse. Both the team’s record and its possession data predict that they’ll likely lose a 7-game series against their probable playoff opponents (though I think they’d have a chance against Toronto!). If Braden Holtby gets hot or Alex Ovechkin scores on every other shot–  great! But one shouldn’t build a team based off a hope of exceptional and temporary brilliance, and that article of faith is no reason to wave away a real opportunity to improve a team for next season.

“There are nights when we are playing the way we can play, there are glimpses of how good we can be.”

That’s the thing about glimpses: they’re ephemeral. The problem with a player who has one good night for every five bad ones is not inconsistency, it’s just that he’s not very good. Even Mr. T can score a goal from center ice on a single attempt. How many times can he do it in 528 attempts? A glimpse doesn’t inform. It doesn’t illuminate. It distracts, and it seduces.

The Washington Capitals need a roster upgrade to become truly good. Until then, fans will take solace in glimpses of greatness, but they won’t last. Management has to take the long view. Subsisting on the illusion of sustainable success for too long will eventually make even the most die-hard Caps fans into jaded cynics. Like Cubs fans or Leafs fans or people who watch the McLaughlin Group.

“Our penalty kill– since that 2-8-1 start- we’re probably top 10 in the league or better.”

I think this is provably false. The next chart shows how the Capitals penalty kill has performed (in ten-game moving averages) since the beginning of the season. The league-average PK as of Monday morning is in red, and the threshold for the top 10 is in orange.

The Capitals are not in the top 10 on the penalty kill. They were for a moment. Now they are average, maybe a little worse. If you go by McPhee’s methodology and cut out the first 11 games of the season, the Caps PK is 81.3%– almost exactly the league average.

“I’m not going to do anything at the deadline that in my mind would set us back.”

This is a topic I touched on during while on CapsCast on Easter Sunday. I’m choosing to interpret McPhee’s “set us back” as meaning in the short term since in the long term making a run for the playoffs seems likely to hurt the team’s chances at building a good team for 2014 and 2015.

There’s a lot of talent coming down the pipeline, and by not dealing away temporary players like Mike Ribeiro while his value is at an absurd peak, he’s lessening the punch that guys like Filip Forsberg and Evgeny Kuznetsov will have once they don a Caps uniform. While I’d love watching the Caps in the playoffs, I still think McPhee is mortgaging the team’s future for a way too slim chance at postseason success.

Okay, enough of the grumpy pants stuff.

“We’ve sort of changed our blueline on the fly here the last few years and have created this mobile blueline that can generate some offense.”

I can’t think of any good way to measure a blueline’s mobility, although I’m a bit suspicious that John Erskine and Jeff Schultz have the mobility of which McPhee speaks. Instead of quibbling over that, let’s see if Washington’s defenders are actually generating a larger share of offense compared to years past. I’ll measure that contribution using the percentage of shots on goal that came from defenders in each of the last 4 seasons.

McPhee is right. The Caps certainly have got a larger share of offensive contribution in recent years. Last season may have been an anomaly considering how little offense the Caps offered and how much Dennis Wideman was shooting early that year.

I should acknowledge that while the defense is proportionately generating more this year, the team overall is shooting less. Shots per game has trended down over the last four seasons.

“We really like the way Marcus Johansson is playing now.”

Me too! I wrote an inflammatory hitpiece about Johansson back in February that I’m frankly embarrassed about now. We’ve since learned that Johansson was playing through a concussion during those first nine games. He shouldn’t have been playing at all.

Since he’s returned, Johansson has been much better. He’s actually improving the play of some of his linemates now, he’s a relatively stronger player on the puck. He’s contributing to the offense for the first time in nearly a year. While he’s not all the way there yet, I’m really encouraged by his progress and embarrassed by my attack on a player who needed help, not criticism.

(Tangent: Hey, wouldn’t it be nice to have fully disclosed injuries for all players? Wouldn’t it be cool if there were transparency to a system so clearly broken that some players try to “tough out” their concussions and others medicate themselves to death? It would also enable fans and scouts to evaluate players in context, but that’s small potatoes considering the health of the players themselves. I know this has nothing to do with George McPhee’s statement, but the NHL– like most pro sports — still seems helplessly broken in this respect.)

I am not saying McPhee is a liar or an idiot. Far from it. He built my favorite hockey team (yours too, I suspect), and his job is phenomenally hard. He’s been deviously clever in the draft and has masterfully managed his goaltending talent. The facts certainly agree with some things he said on Friday, and some of my points above are purely subjective.

But the Capitals team I’ve been following so closely doesn’t resemble the one McPhee described. Maybe the Caps have internal metrics that would dispute what I’ve got– (I’d really welcome more data). Maybe McPhee was speaking strategically to position himself for some big moves on the trade deadline. Maybe he was speaking aspirationally, as if the mere saying of these things might help make them true. Maybe he just wants the players to know that they have his confidence at a crucial part of the season.

Still doesn’t make it true. Here’s one last McPhee quote:

“No one likes criticism.”

Well, yeah. I don’t think I’ll be getting a Christmas card from the McPhee McPhamily this year, but I’m still a fan. I still think this organization and this team can do great things. I just think a shared understanding of a problem is essential to its solving. So this is that.

Crash the net.