When I posted my thoughts on which second-line centers might be a fit for the Capitals, many of you asked me: “What about Stephen Weiss of the Florida Panthers?” So I am going to use that as today’s collective Feed the Machine question and see what the numbers say.

The first step is to take a look at what it is going to cost in terms of the salary cap. Since Washington has $6,686,351 in cap space at the deadline, Weiss’s $3.1 million cap hit should not be an issue. Plus, he is under contract through the 2012-13 season so it is important to note that this wouldn’t be a rental.

Because Weiss would be with the Caps for multiple seasons, we need to find out what type of production to expect in the future. For the purposes of this article I will project one year of production using similar players to his 2009-10 season.

I found 19 players who had similar seasons to Weiss’ 60-point campaign last year. Those skaters include the likes of Henrik Sedin, Saku Koivu and Mike Modano at similar ages. The comparable players posted a better average GVT – Tom Awad’s Goals Versus Threshold statistic. GVT measures how many goals (on both the offensive and defensive side of the puck) above a replacement player were contributed. The six goal difference between Weiss and his Sims is significant, since six goals equate to roughly one win over the course of a season. I would guess the disparity between the closeness of boxcar stats and GVT is due to the defensive side of the puck. Weiss may not be as sound defensively as his peer group.

These 19 similar players averaged 56 points the following year while playing 71 games and logging about 1,400 minutes on average. Weiss should come close to that production if we project his current boxcar stats over an 82 game span. To put another way, he should produce the same as the similar players did but would need another 11 games and approximately 200 minutes of ice time to do it. Again, we also see Weiss under-performing his peer group in regards to GVT by about 60%.

This brings us to next year, where we could reasonably expect to see a 58-point season along with a GVT of around 6-8 if we discount him to his peer group as he was the previous two seasons. This number is important. Based on his cap hit ($3.1 million), we can figure out how much value Weiss needs to provide and compare that with the value Weiss is expected to provide. This is also called Goals Versus Salary (GVS) and is similar to what I did to evaluate Ovechkin’s contract.

To calculate it, you subtract $0.5 million from the cap hit (the cost of a replacement level player and also the League minimum) and multiply that by three, because to be competitive a team must get 120 GVT from their remaining $40 million in cap space.

In Weiss’ case, he would have to produce a GVT of 7.8 during the 2011-12 season to “justify” his $3.1 million cap hit. Based on his age and the fact he plays with better teammates in Florida then he might in Washington it is quite possible we have seen his best, which is good, but not quite where it needs to be for a $3.1 million cap hit.

So I stand by my original recommendation: Take a flier on Marty Reasoner and either look for something better in the offseason, take the gamble that Marcus Johansson improves significantly or persuade Evgeny Kuznetsov to soften his stance on playing in the KHL for one more year.

Edited by Chris Gordon and Ian Oland.

Another week has passed and amazingly people still have questions for us. Judging by our readers’ letters, it seems like most of you have lost hope that this year is the year. Don’t worry, we deleted those emails and focused all our attention on questions regarding groins.

Like always, if you’ve got a question, a comment, or need ideas on how to get out of jury duty, feel free to shoot us a message and we’ll answer you back next Friday!

Now follow us past the jump, where our grandiose hero Neil weights in on the topics of officiating and trades.

Missy V. seems a bit preoccupied with our Twitter bio:

I noticed on Twitter that it says you have been “blocked by Mike Green”. What is the story behind that?

I know the RMNB lawyer does not want us talking about it, but since you are a new reader I am going to hope she isn’t reading and tell you the whole story.

Wait, we have no idea why.

# # #

Janet W. wants to understand NHL officiating better (don’t we all):

How do Linesmen decide when to wave off an icing call?

I don’t see them carrying around their own Monte Carlo Machine (which can be seen at Verizon Center on Saturday where I will be in attendance) to do simulated coin flips so they probably follow NHL Rule 81.5, which states:

The Linesman shall have discretion to wave off apparent icing infractions on attempted passes if those passes are deemed receivable (attainable). In order for the Linesman to wash out the icing for this reason, the receiving player’s stick must be on the attacking side of the center red line and he must be eligible to receive the pass (e.g., he cannot be in an off-side position and cannot be involved in a player change that would result in a too many men on the ice penalty if he were to play the puck).

# # #

Jon J. inquires if the time is right to trade one of the Caps young goalies:

I just thought I’d bring up some trade discussion. I was wondering if a deal involving the New Jersey Devils for a center would be worth it. Most noticeably, for either Travis Zajac or Zach Parise. The Devils are going to have salary cap problems when Parise returns from injury, and I was thinking that given Marty’s decline, a package involving Neuvirth would be attractive.

It’s an interesting proposal. I am sure you are not the only fan that wants a bona-fide second line center and would be open to trading one of the young goaltenders to get one. I am not one of them. It’s not because I don’t think Parise or Zajac would be good additions, it is because the cost of losing one of the three goalies is too much.

The Hockey News ran a quick blurb in their print magazine last month that since goaltending was “so important”, it was strange the teams that spend the most on their ‘keepers make up the majority of basement dwellers in the NHL. They’re looking at it wrong; those teams are in the cellar because they spent so much on goaltending. Here’s why:

The real measure of goaltending talent is save percentage, so if we look at the Top 15 goalies in the NHL we see they have a Sv% of .925. If we look at the next 30, they have a Sv% of .906. So, roughly a ten goal difference over the course of a season. Is that worth spending an extra couple million for per year? Of course not. If the Caps traded one of the young ‘tenders they would have to replace him with a veteran who might cost that much, and it’s not worth it. And no, I don’t feel Holtby is ready for the NHL. Yet.

# # #

Nicole asks what has been on all our minds ever since the #brittlegroin epidemic first reared it’s ugly head:

“Does a groin injury mean no sex?”

Not if you follow some of these simple, safety tips from WebMD:

1. Use a step stool when reaching for high objects.
2. Do not stand on chairs or other objects.
3. Wear jockey shorts, not boxers.

Introduction by Ian Oland; editing by Chris Gordon.

It’s been another rip-roaring week of sifting through piles of your inane ramblings. Judging by reader letters, most of you seem to have gone off prescription medications recently. Cool. If you’ve got a question, a comment, or a paternity query, please feel free to shoot us a message!

Now follow us past the jump, where Neil does some slam poetry on the topics of faceoffs and Tyler Sloan.

Carolyn F. asks what we all wanted to know but were too afraid to ask:

How is a faceoff “win” determined? Direction of puck or who gets it? Seems inconsistent as far as what’s counted.

Great question. I had to consult the real hockey expert in my house, Nicci, to get the answer. According to her: “the first team that gains possession of the puck wins the faceoff. Kinda like your scoring chances, you know, no real rhyme or reason.”

# # #

Those clever bastards at PuckBuddys (which you should be reading) wanna know about booze and collective bargaining:

1. What’s your game night drink of choice?

2. Is there a Cliff Notes out there for CBA?  What’s a good resource to explain the process?  It’s seems sooo complicated!

My game night drink of choice, as everyone knows, is ginger ale. Ian likes beer, and Peter enjoys Kumis by the gallon [Nu-uh! I love me some Flying Dog Gonzo Imperial Porter -Peter]. As for the CBA, I agree, whiskey tango foxtrot were they thinking?? Luckily we have Capgeek, who translates it to English.

# # #

Awkward photos are on the ellipsis-abusing mind of Mike F.

Do you think this prom picture circa 1994 was a good idea……..?

Sometimes what you think may be a good idea at the time just isn’t. Exhibit B:

# # #

Joanne X. (from the School for Gifted Youngsters) is worried about Tyler Sloan.

Tyler Sloan is back from his conditioning in Hershey. Is this the Caps-ocalypse?

Close, but not quite yet, although most fans would rather face an army of zombies armed with only a loaf of bread and a hula hoop than see Sloan get much ice time. He’s definitely been Washington’s weakest defender at even strength when it comes to scoring chances, but at 50% it doesn’t seem that bad. You have to look at the on-ice save percentage to get a real feel for how much he drags the defense down. When he is on the ice, the Caps’ even-strength scoring chance save percentage (say that three times fast) is .688. When he is off the ice, it is a robust .855. The chances of that being due to bad luck alone is about 200 to 1. Now, if injuries caused him to get anywhere near a consistent 10-12 minutes a game, then yes, start stocking up on canned goods.

# # #

Alright, friends. If you’ve got a question for us about the Monte Carlo machine, Alex Ovechkin’s sticks, or which root beers do not have caffeine, fire away!

Last week we opened up our lines for reader questions. To be totally frank, they’ve been way beyond our expectations. Didn’t know you had it in you; keep ‘em coming!

Now pipe down and pay attention, cause Neil’s about to drop some science on you fools.

Carrie S. writes up about the fashion choices of CSN’s Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin:

It seems like Craig and Joe B’s outfits are always color-coordinated. You never see one of them wearing a black/grey/blue color family and the other wearing brown/tan/green. As a viewer, I appreciate this no-clashing practice, but wonder: Is it a policy? Does the network tell them what colors to wear? Do they figure it out themselves? Is it purely serendipitous luck?

As you can tell from the suit-of-the-night feature, we at RMNB take Joe B’s fashion very seriously. Not our own (as you can tell from our t-shirts), but Joe B’s apparel is a big deal for us. Just for you, I am going to break out the old Magnificent Monte Carlo Machine and see what the chances are it is pure luck that they look good.

Joe B. has shown a wide variety of suit/tie combos, so if we assume he and Locker have access to 12 main color combinations at any one time the chances that they BOTH find something color-coordinated by random chance is .069% or 145 to 1. Long odds, so I say it is definitely coordinated.

# # #

C.N. wants to know about Roman entertainment:

Do you like movies about gladiators?

Have you ever been in a Turkish prison?

# # #

John K. ventures into the dangerous intersection of hockey and love:

Do any of you think you could date a Penguins fan?  I’ve been having fun with one for a few weeks, and now she’s decided that she’s looking for more of a commitment from me.  I’m just not sure I can commit to a girl who owns a Sidney Crosby jersey and was wondering if that was something you guys thought you could ever get past.

First off, this is the type of thing that should come out during the courting process. Before I met my current girlfriend, I always added a line to my Craigslist ads that said “Do you like movies about gladiators?” “What’s your favorite hockey team?” I have an auto-filter set up so that if they come back with “Pittsburgh” it is automatically deleted and I don’t know what I am missing.

That said, here is my advice: If she’s hot nice, smart, and has a great– uh… personality, then you can probably get by so long as you don’t watch games together. Try to look at it as her love of the game and not as her love of the Pens.

# # #

Some guy named Peter H. wants to know about Braden Holtby:

By my crude math, Holtby is at .967 Sv% (87 for 90) on his recent stint. Teeny tiny sample, but still impressive as [heck]. What do your data say on the matter?

Based on his 174 shots faced for the season we can calculate his margin of error, which tells us with 95% certainty Holtby’s “real save percentage based on ability” is somewhere between .865 and .951. So he is either Andrew Raycroft or Vesa Toskala. In other words, way too soon to tell.

# # #

If you’ve got a question for RMNB about collective bargaining agreements, animal husbandry, nutrition, or head shots, just Feed the Machine. We’ll get back to you.

One of the things we love about Russian Machine is how engaged and creative our audience (that’s you!) is. All that artwork and those guest posts are among the very best work we’ve ever published here, and we want to keep that going. So we’ve invented a new column that requires your help.

Helmed by Neil Greenberg, Feed the Machine is our version of the “Dear Abby” column, except crazier. Here’s how it works: you email us your thoughts about anything. Maybe you have a question about those impenetrable statistics (PDO, what’s that?) or an observation you’d like to share on Joe Beninati’s wardrobe. Maybe you’d like us to demystify the arcana of AHL-NHL eligibility rules.  Maybe you need dating advice and it hasn’t occurred to you that we’re the worst possible people to ask.  Whatever. Just drop us a line, and we’ll get back to you– by writing about it on here on the site.

The lines are open, and operators are standing by to take your call.

Let’s get it started.

I. Why is Alex Ovechkin struggling so much? – John S. from Columbia, MD

We’ll open with the question that is on everyone’s mind. There have been many theories, including some of my very own, but the answer that is most overlooked has to do with a change off the ice: he has a new girlfriend.

Consider this:

See the pattern?

II. Who has the best taste in music amongst all the writers in RMNB? – Sabrina D. from Arlington, VA

Peter doesn’t listen to music, he writes his own, Ian has been overheard muttering the words “Justin Beiber is not that bad” and my favorites include anything written or performed by Walter Schreifels. You tell me.

III. Why has Jay Beagle stayed in DC while Andrew Gordon was sent back down to Hershey. I thought Gordo was the better player? – Eric R. from Frederick, MD

Andrew Gordon probably projects to be the better NHL player, especially if we translate their career AHL stats to the NHL level:

NHL Equivalencies for AHL career

However, Beagle has not only played against the oppositions’ better scoring lines, but also creates more of the Caps chances when he is on the ice. With an offense looking to find their identity, this simply cannot be overlooked.