Image by Cook the Chef

Welp, this is less than fun now, but we’re freaking obligated. The thing about making public predictions is that when you (and by you, I mean me) get ‘em wrong, it’s really embarrassing. I picked just 3 winners out of 8, so basically I’m worse than a coin-toss. I’m having self-worth issues right now. Meanwhile, Ian, used some blind freaking luck to get 5 out of 8. And we’re both emotionally unstable right now.

Let’s do it!

First a look back at our predictions from the last round.

Peter: 37.5% (Peter picked the following losers: VAN, NYI, MTL, WSH, TOR)
Ian: 62.5% (Ian picked the following losers: ANA, VAN, WSH)

(But if you count number of games, I was totally closer than Ian, so there take that, nyah nyah.)

Chicago Blackhawks (#1) vs Detroit Red Wings (#7)

Peter: Ooh baby, I’m looking forward to this one. It seems to me that no matters who is on the Red Wings roster, they’re still somehow imbued by the spirit of Detroit hockey. Lidstrom is nowhere in sight, and they’re still a responsible team that does whatever they need to do to be strong on the puck. But the Blackhawks are the same team that ran away with regular season while the Caps still had a hard time lacing their skates. Chicago is the probably the most fun to watch, and I’m going to enjoy watching the Hawks win it in 6.

Ian: Let me first preface this with I hate hockey. Like utterly, completely, entirely. I just frigging hate hockey right now. Gary can go kick rocks for paying the officials off to let the Rangers win. Whew. Okay that’s out of my system, let’s roll some more NHL playoff dice! First of all, I think the Chicago Blackhawks are easily the better team in this series. That’s why I’m picking the Red Wings to win it. They’re old. They’re crafty. And like that old fisherman guy with the one-dollar bill hooked on his fishing rod, you can’t take the puck from them.

Wings in 6.

LA Kings (#5) vs San Jose Sharks (#6)

Peter: San Jose is a team unfairly maligned for being past their peak. I didn’t think they’d make the second round, but I don’t think they’re a slouch either. But still, the Kings are my pick to take the Cup, and they’re gonna bombard the Sharks into oblivion. In the Battle of California, I predict a slaughter: Kings in 4. It’s a Peter Hassett Sweep Special! Take it to #thebank!

Ian: I’m still really confused on how the Kings finished their season as only the #5 seed. They are a better team than that. A dominant one in fact. While the Sharks easily handled the Canucks in the first round, they will struggle big time in this series. And why? Because like the Capitals, they are physically and mentally unable to get over the proverbial hump, or I guess unbeaching themselves or something. Kings win in 6.

Pittsburgh Penguins (#1) vs Ottawa Senators (#7)

Peter: The league’s most exciting offense versus the regular season’s best goaltender. I really thought the Islanders could have skated the Pens into oblivion, but I failed to predict the rescue run of the Vokeswagon. Tomas Vokoun descended on Long Island like a grumpy old bald guy who sometimes plays goalie, and wouldn’t-ya-just-know-it, he did just that! I think the Penguins will wisely stick with Vokes, rendering MAF an eternal escape goat, and they’ll pull ahead of a frugal Ottawa team. Penguins in 6.

Ian: As much as I hate everything about the city, the people, and the players on this team, the Penguins — even despite Fleury’s current struggle with Jim Carey syndrome — managed to win in the first round. Like I said in my first set up picks, I love the Senators as a team. While they play some great hockey, these throwback warriors will have nothing against these ugly flightless birds. Pens in 6.

Boston Bruins (#4) vs New York Rangers (#6)

Peter: I’m not watching this series. I’ve watched 21 gull-darn playoff hockey games between these teams and the Capitals in the last year, and I’ve enjoyed very little of them. I hope they grind themselves into actual hell. I hope it’s pest vs. pest. I hope Lundqvist stands next to Rask at some point so we can marvel at the entire attractiveness spectrum of human males. I don’t care who wins so long as everyone does a good bit of suffering. Neither of these teams is a winner according to the definition of winner I made up just now. Bruins in 7. But in a parallel universe, the Caps are about to beat the Maple Leafs in 5 games of wide-open, dynamic hockey that has every fan in both countries’ smiling. Ugh.

Ian: I wish nothing but the worst for both of these teams. Like I hope both teams get the stomach flu and spend all game projectile vomiting at each other. That’s how I feel. My one key match-up is between Pierre McGuire’s favorite player in the NHL, All-American American Ryan Callahan, and free-style diver Brad Marchand. Who will out-pest the other? Who will flop more than Shane Battier? I’m not really sure who will — it’s impossible to predict — but I do know one thing for a fact. If these guys skate towards each at full speed and crash into each other at center ice, all bad things that have happened in life will become good, kinda like this Coldplay video.

Bruins in 4. Because it makes no sense at all.

Please share your predictions or just mock us for ours below.

Photo credit: Bruce Bennett

Thursday night, the New York Rangers opened the scoring in game four after Braden Holtby made an aggressive play that ultimately backfired. Holtby fired a saucer pass up the center of the ice that was intercepted by Taylor Pyatt, who knocked the puck out of the air with his stick. Brad Richards ultimately scored on an empty net.

With three out of four games in the Caps/Rangers series having been decided by one goal, it was a play too risky for Holtby to try. Capitals’ head coach Adam Oates agreed with that sentiment Thursday after practice.

“Probably. Obviously in hindsight he could’ve made a better decision, gone up the wall,” Oates said to The Washington Post’s Katie Carrera. “But he saw something and we trust him.”

Holtby disagreed.

“I thought I made the right play,” the Lloydminster, Saskatchewan native said. “I just need to get that a foot higher in the air, make him take a high stick. He made a great play knocking that down. He doesn’t make that; that’s a breakaway the other way. That happens.”

No, that’s too risky. That kind of play shouldn’t happen.

One game earlier, Holtby iced the puck on a Capitals power play, which was equally as infuriating.

Playing the puck as a goaltender is a supplemental part of the game. When Holtby starts blurring the lines between easy plays and ones that could end up in the back of the net, he looks a bit too brazen. And really, he should leave that to Patrick Roy, who did stuff like this his whole career.

Ovi reacts after being slashed by Brad Richards in the third period of game three. (Photo credit: Bruce Bennett)

A few summers ago, Alex Ovechkin did an interview with Mike Vogel where he slouched. I didn’t think it was a big deal. A few screenshots later, Ovi’s bulging belly was the topic du jour and commenters everywhere opined about the Russian machine’s new chubbiness. The whole Fat Gate thing was ridiculous to me, because if you’ve ever seen Ovechkin, you’ve noticed how strong his core area is. It sticks out past his chest. It’s one of the reasons why Ovechkin’s such a physical player and has such explosiveness in his strides.

But since Ovechkin absorbed a crushing hip check from Anton Stralman to his leg, hip, and core in the first period of game three, he hasn’t been quite the same player.

When the check happened, I didn’t think much of it. Ovi takes a hundred blows like this every season, and usually he skates right through it. After this hit, however, Ovi struggled to get up, labored to his skates, and when he winded up to shoot later in the shift, his wrist shot lacked its normal zip.

Since the hit, Ovechkin has zero points, three shots on goal, and two hits. He has been a non-factor in the last five periods. In the two games before that, Ovechkin had one goal, one assist, 12 shots, and 12 hits. That’s a big difference in play.

Of course, Ovi’s struggles could easily be the result of other things. In games one and two, when Washington got the final line change, Ovechkin was matched up against Dan Girardi just 73.7% of the time. In games three and four in Manhattan, Ovechkin was matched by Girardi 80% of the time. Tactics have surely changed as well, and the Caps spent 2 more minutes killing penalties (when Ovi is not on ice) in games three and four.

While there are a number of factors that could explain Ovi’s lack of luster in New York, a guy who should know, defenseman Ryan McDonagh, said Ovechkin looked “tired.”

Ovechkin takes a lot of punishment. Brad Richards slashed him at the end of game three (see the headline photo). Taylor Pyatt nailed Ovi at center ice in the first period of game four.

Also in game four, Girardi hit Ovechkin sturdily along the boards.

That’s not a complete list. Ovechkin’s been hit a lot. Playing him physically is certainly the Rangers’ game plan, and it appears to be working. It is possible Ovechkin is playing through some pain, and he may have a real injury we won’t know about until locker clear-out day. Maybe not. Either way, it’s apparent that Ovi has not been at 100% in the last two games, and the Caps depend on him dearly to succeed.

Tuesday night begins the best part of the entire year. Eight best-of-seven series start today– with all the rivalries and drama and bad blood that come along with ‘em. Expect big games every night and fresh fallout every morning. Playoffs, baby.

As RMNB’s creators, Ian and I thought we’d ramble on about our predictions for the first round and put our necks on the line. I do not recommend you take any of our guesses to #thebank.

Minnesota Wild (#8) vs Chicago Blackhawks (#1)

Peter: I’m still astonished the Wild even made the postseason (#lumbus). I guess Parise might steal one game, but this is all Chicago. Blackhawks in 5, because they’re awesome on both ends of the ice. If any series goes to a sweep, it’ll be this one.

Ian: I first want to preface this with, I haven’t watched any West team play an entire game all year. So not only will my analysis be worthless, but I’ll probably get all of my picks 100% correct. So the Blackhawks are proven performers. They are made up by a gritty forward who is also a fearless leader (Toews); a dude who is a great scorer, probably drinks too much, and played under Dale Hunter (Kane); and a guy who’s won the Norris (Keith). Sure the Wild have Parise (which kinda rhymes with parcheesi) but this is going to be a war for them — and they’re on the wrong side of Pickett’s Charge. Blackhawks in 6.

Detroit Red Wings (#7) vs Anaheim Ducks (#2)

Peter: Sorry, Bruce. You’re getting first-rounded. Red Wings in 6. If the kid’s in net, make it 5.

Ian: The advanced stats say no, but my heart says yes. Boudreau and his Ducks continue their improbable run, riding some awesome play by their hall of famer. #TeemuForever in 5.

San Jose Sharks (#6) vs Vancouver Canucks (#3)

Peter: Congrats to this series for being the one I care about least. I want the Canucks to lose to see Alain Vigneault fend off the rabid Canadian hockey press with a broken chair leg, but I have a feeling they’ll squeak by. Canucks in 7.

Ian: The Canucks are that team everyone wants to pick but they always come up just a little bit short, like a preteen in line for a roller coaster. This season will be no different, but I think they’ll take care of business in the first round quickly. Canucks in 5.

Los Angeles Kings (#5) vs St Louis Blues (#4)

Peter: The Kings are my pick to win the Cup. Kings in 6. Quick might be able to put some Holtby-esque numbers up in this one, though STL is no slouch.

Ian: Look at the Kings’ possession stats. Just look at them. History has smiled upon a team that just owns the puck like the Kings do. While the Blues are a brilliant young team with a talented Russian that I pull for (Tarasenko), the defending champions will be too much for them to handle. Kings in 7.

New York Islanders (#8) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (#1)

Peter: This one should be fun to watch. John Tavares will shoot fireworks at MAF, who shouldn’t be Pittsburgh’s escape goat again this year, but he’ll give up enough to make up for whatever hockey majesty Crosby and Malkin unleash at the other end of the ice. If I were Fox Sports, this would be my Upset Special. Islanders in 7. Crosby for Lindsay though.

Ian: I don’t think I even need to offer an explanation. Penguins in 4.

Ottawa Senators (#7) vs Montreal Canadiens (#2)

Peter: Craig Anderson is scaaaaary, but I’ll give the edge to the Habs because I learned my lesson about doubting them back in 2010. I’m expecting PK Subban to bust out more dick moves than a [joke redacted]. Canadiens in 6.

Ian: I love how Ottawa’s built, and I especially love their forwards: Erik Condra, Mika Zibanejad, and Cory Conacher. These are tough forwards, guys who can score any way you can imagine. I think this will be a long series, but Montreal will eventually lose. Senators in 7.

New York Rangers (#6) vs Washington Capitals (#3)

Peter: My feeling is the Caps will get stonewalled on too-few power plays, but they’ll get the win in 6 regardless based on the strength of the hairy dude in net, who will put up a 93% save percentage. Plus, Jason Chimera will score big– Druce Mode. Capitals in 6.

Ian: I always tell my friends, the playoffs never make any sense, especially for the Capitals. You would expect the Caps to win this easily just because of how they’ve played lately, but I’m leery of such an assumption. I think the Rangers find a way to control Ovechkin, but the Caps’ tertiary scoring will come to the rescue. Also, four goals from #52 who will earn a new moniker: Series Over. Capitals in 6.

Toronto Maple Leafs (#5) vs Boston Bruins (#4)

Peter: I think most people think this is a lopsided match-up, but I’m a little cool on the Bruins (overrated dot com). I mindlessly predict this will be a high-scoring series (sorry Rask, sorry Reimer), and the Leafs win it in 7.  Because the playoffs are weird, and the hockey media machine wants this. I’m totally anticipating a bevy of War Room conspiracy theories erupting from this one.

Ian: I know Leafs fans are excited to be back in the playoffs for the first time since the lightbulb was invented, but, after seeing them get demolished live by the Capitals a few weeks ago, I’m not even sure they can win one game in this series. Not only are the advanced stats against them, they were built by a guy who would make trades just to make trades. Tyler Seguin will show that he has the stuff to be a superstar during this round of games. #BostonStrong. Bruins in 5.

Please share your predictions below.

Since 2010, RMNB has been keeping track of Caps fans’ playoff beards under the banner #beardpact. It’s been our way of keeping in touch regarding our ill-advised facial-hair enterprises, sending some traffic towards Beard-a-Thon, and having a few laughs.

Maybe that’s been fun for you, but it’s been hell for me.

When I can actually grow a beard, I look really bad. Like Nick Backstrom bad. And my so-called friends have this awful habit of getting married during the playoffs. Like every goddamn year. It’s as if their wives didn’t even care about Bruce Boudreau’s job. And have you ever tried to talk to a smart and sophisticated lady while you have the facial scruff of a pubescent seventh grader?

So, yeah. Not this year, guys. I am not growing a playoff beard.

I could pretend like this is an anti-superstition thing, but it’s not. While I still vehemently believe that my scratchy-ass face has absolutely no effect on the Washington Capitals’ unblocked even-strength shot-attempt differential while the score is close, that’s not why I’m bailing on #beardpact. I’m just sick of letting everyone down every year.

Check it.

• April 24, 2010: The Caps had a 3-1 series lead over the Canadiens when I left for a wedding in Florida. I shaved before the ceremony and you know what happened next. P.S. Don’t eat at Don Shula’s. That place is a scam.
• April 29, 2011: With the reluctant permission of my personal guru Suzanne Kang, I allowed myself to “clean up” my beard. The Caps dropped four straight to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
• May 10, 2012: I actually attended a wedding with a full-on beard, but was later forced to scale back for a business meeting in California. The Caps managed to beat the Bruins, but fell in seven games to the Rangers while I looked like an utter tool with my van dyke.

I’ll be attending a wedding on May 18th. I’ve decided to stay clean-shaven for the duration of the playoffs rather than break ranks after two weeks, provided– knock on Rechlicz’s stick– the Caps are still in it by then.  I find it’s better to disappoint you a little now than disappoint you a lot later.

And c’mon. This wasn’t a good look for me.

I won’t blame the desolation that is my social calendar on my futile beard-growing efforts, but I detect a statistically significant correlation in there that I’d like to get peer-reviewed if anyone has a TI-83 and some spare time. In general: no, the womenfolk did not take kindly to the soupcatcher.

So I’m out. I acknowledge that I am violating ritual and dissolving the bonds on fandom here, and for that I am truly sorry. I’ll still throw some bones to Beard-a-Thon in the form of a donation, but my face shall stay smooth.

(Unless the Caps get their FenClose over 53% next season, in which case I’m totally going Grizzly Adams up on you guys.)

In the meantime, I strongly encourage all of you to participate in #beardpact and Beard-a-Thon. Take a pic of your facial hair progress and tweet it at us with the hashtag #beardpact. It’s still a thing. Chris and Ian are probably still doing it, I bet.

Again: sorry. My bad.

Photo credit: Paul Chiasson

Over the next five days, the Capitals will finish the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season with three home games. The Caps’ match-ups with Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Boston will not only determine if Washington wins the Southeast Division and makes the playoffs, they’ll also sort out the trophy races that Alex Ovechkin is involved in. Ovechkin, after not winning any hardware since 2010, is in contention for four awards: the Ted Lindsey trophy for players’ MVP, the Art Ross trophy (for most points), the Maurice Richard trophy (for most goals), and the Hart trophy (for most valuable player).

While The Great Eight and his peers control his destiny with three of these four awards, the esteemed members of the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association will decide the Hart Trophy. This is the same media that in the last three years has literally flogged Ovechkin with a spiked 2 x 4 painted with a red maple leaf and dripping with Tim Horton’s coffee. Because when every great player gets older and his team becomes less aggressive, it’s the media’s moral obligation to antagonize him to casual fans and excoriate him at every turn.

I mean, look at some of this stuff.

• On February 27th of this past year, NBC analyst Mike Milbury begged Ovechkin to “act like a man, for god’s sake” and to “stop acting like a baby.” Ovi “should be ashamed of himself,” and on that one memorable night in February, Ovechkin “failed” the superstar test “miserably” with “an awful display of hockey.” Babies and women are apparently very low on Milbury’s stack ranking.
• Former player Ray Ferraro said recently that Ovechkin is a hockey idiot. “I do not think he’s got a high hockey IQ,” Ferraro said, as transcribed by the DC Sports Bog. “He goes for power, he goes in straight lines, he doesn’t see around him really well, and to me, one of the great traits that Sidney Crosby has is his ability to think the game at the highest speed. And I don’t think Ovechkin’s got that.”
• CBC analyst Craig Simpson, in an online chat earlier this season, consider Ovechkin a poisonous asset: ”[You] can’t win with Ovie as your face of franchise and so called leader. toxic.” He also thought the Caps should buy him out.
• This season, local writer Thom Loverro wondered out loud if Ovi would rather play in Russia. “You have to wonder,” Loverro wrote,”after having a taste of that for several months, if Ovechkin wishes he were back in Moscow playing for the Dynamo instead of here in Washington skating for the Capitals.”
• NBC4′s Adam Vingan said Ovechkin on right wing “[shifted] between looking completely lost and disappearing completely.”
• Sports Illustrated’s Stu Hackell believed at one point this season that Ovechkin’s “already peaked.”
• Fat-gate.
• ESPN’s Sean Allen observed that Ovi “has looked slower than usual and isn’t playing with as much force as usual.”
• And the local Caps media? They’re not sold on Ovechkin’s credentials for the Hart either. Neil Greenberg thinks Ovi’s not quite MVP material. Stephen Whyno’s got Crosby as his MVP.

Despite there being strong evidence that Ovechkin has carried his team and done exactly what the Hart trophy entails, he still has detractors. I’m not blind to the fantastic seasons of Sergei Bobrovsky, John Tavares, Sidney Crosby, and Jonathan Toews, but if the Capitals make the playoffs after such an awful start, Ovechkin deserves the Hart trophy. Period.

Here’s something you can do to get Ovi over these last three games. Every time he scores a goal, makes a big hit, or hell– any time his name is growled by Wes Johnson, chant M – V – P! Because optics matter. A Captain with uniform support of his fans looks ever slightly more attractive to the media members who pick the Hart.

So create your own signs, or print out the one I made below.

Let the NHL world know that Ovi deserves recognition. He’s successfully switched to right wing, changed his game, revolutionized the power play, and scored like it was 2008 or something. Seasons like this can’t happen every year, so enjoy it and cheer it on. And while you’re taking it all in, shout like a madman.

Photo credit: Andre Ringuette

Earlier I wrote about how the Hart Trophy was a poorly defined award of limited value. Now I’ll share why I think Alex Ovechkin absolutely must have it. I’m going to share some stats and rebut some excuses, but the whole thing boils down to this: the Capitals needed the best from Ovechkin, and he delivered it.

But first, I’m going to repeat what we talked about before. This is the most valuable player to his team, not just the best all-around player. If we’re talking best player? I’d say it’s Sidney Crosby. Hands down. But most valuable? And to his team? That’s a more interesting conversation. And now, baby, you’ve got a stew going.

I suppose there are a bunch of ways to measure how valuable a player is to his team, but the most obvious is how much of his team’s offense (sorry, goalies) comes from him. The chart below shows the percentage of total team goals each of our four big names has personally offered.

Despite missing a quarter of the season, Crosby still has had his greasy Canadian fingers in nearly 40% of the Penguins’ league-leading goal tally. Alex Ovechkin isn’t far behind (37.2%), but he also scored more than one-fifth of Washington’s goals, slightly above where Long Island’s John Tavares placed. Jonathan Toews isn’t all that exceptional when it comes to carrying production water for Chicago.

(By the way, Steven Stamkos’s numbers last years were better than all these guys: He had points on 40% of Tampa’s goals and scored 25% of them personally, but no playoffs, no trophy.)

The point here is that a player’s raw numbers– goals and assists– should be considered in context of his team. Washington depends on Alex Ovechkin to produce, and he this year has done exactly that.

The most compelling argument against Ovechkin as “outstanding player” is all about how his slow start to the season doomed him. Those people are right. Alex Ovechkin had just 2 goals through the season’s first 10 games, and his team had just two wins in that same span. I think that’s enough to cost him any chance at league MVP, i.e. the Ted Lindsay– but it just underscores his case as the player most valuable to his team, i.e. the Hart.

This next graph shows how the Caps’ fate has been tied to Alex Ovechkin’s goal production… and how fantastically that has turned out for them.

The Capitals didn’t win until Alex Ovechkin started scoring. The Capitals couldn’t hit .500 until Ovi cracked .6 goals per game. They’re on the same trajectory here– away from a lottery draft pick and headed towards the postseason. It should be noted that within 10 days after Adam Oates switched him to the right wing and reunited him with the uber-Swede, Nick Backstrom, Ovechkin jumped from 0.36 goals per game to 0.50 goals per game and climbing.

Consistency is a virtue– one that Ovechkin does not possess– but I don’t think it’s critical to the proposition of the Hart. The more important matter is how Alex Ovechkin’s goal scoring (and assisting!) has been critical to the Capitals’ success. The Capitals without a great Ovechkin are not a good hockey team. The Penguins without Sidney Crosby, meanwhile, are still terrifyingly good; they just move less merchandise. It’s your basic Michael Jordan on the Bulls versus Michael Jordan on the Space Jam team scenario– although in my metaphor the Swedish Bugs Bunny is really driving puck possession for MJ.

Another dig on Ovechkin is that his playing in the Southeast Division puts him on the NHL version of the bunny slope. The other four teams in his division rank mostly in the bottom third of teams in shots and goals against. None of them has a save percentage above 90.1%. The Southeast really does stink, and Alex Ovechkin is wafting the fumes. His point production against the SE more than doubles how he does against the Atlantic and Northeast divisions.

Still, I really doubt people are filing the same objections about the Northwest.

Finally, there’s the fancystat argument. Alex Ovechkin’s underlying numbers– particularly in puck possession– just aren’t as strong as his peers.

Alex Ovechkin is the only player in the group who sees more shot attempts go towards his team’s net than the other guy’s net when playing 5-on-5. We could try to explain that away, but it’s true. I just don’t think it matters. These advanced stats are helpful in estimating how a player may perform in the future independent of variance, but we have actual performance metrics for this season we could use instead. The fact that John Tavares likely won’t shoot 17% next year is immaterial to adjudicating how well he did this year.

Again, I don’t know who will win the Hart, and I think it’s foolish to try to guess how hundreds of pro hockey writers will vote, particularly given the criteria for Hart we’ve heard before. I do know that Alex Ovechkin has a damn good case to win. But so does Sergei Bobrovksy.

In the end, it doesn’t matter all that much. We’ve got the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard, and those guys don’t care about Southeast bias or ZoneStart-adjusted Fenwick Close on turf against left-handed pitchers. And the totality of NHL Awards adds up to exactly shrapnel compared to the real goal of a hockey season: the Stanley Cup.

p.s.

Photo credit: Francois Lacasse

Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, Jonathan Toews, and Alex Ovechkin. Those are the names most seen in the deluge of chatter about this season’s Hart Trophy, the award given each year to the player deemed most valuable to his team. Washington’s own goal-scoring leader Alex Ovechkin seems to be the underdog in those conversations for a variety of reasons, namely that he plays in a bad division and wasn’t exceptional until the middle of March. I think those reasons are suspect, but the Hart conversation is already marred by a whole lot of questionable conventional wisdom.

The Hart Trophy is supposed to be awarded to the player that the Professional Hockey Writers Association deems most valuable to his team. While the actual inscription on the Hart Trophy leaves out the whole “to his team” part, I find that little prepositional phrase to be crucial. The NHL is unlike the MLB, whose MVP award has a simpler definition (“most outstanding player“), the same one used for the Ted Lindsay Award.

The Lindsay is the NHL’s real MVP award: voted on by the players and without consideration for team quality or any of the other logical convolutions that make the Hart the cause of ulcers for everyone silly enough to care about it.

The Hart is for the League’s Best Player

The Hart is not for the league’s best player. It is for the player most valuable to his team. Says so right on NHL.com.

If the Hart were truly an assessment of who the league’s best player is, we could just calculate everyone’s GVT (goals versus threshold, a catch-all stat similar to baseball’s WAR, invented by Tom Awad). The guy with the highest GVT gets the trophy and we all go home.

But it’s not about “who’s best?”, it’s about “who is most valuable?” An insultingly dumb analogy would go like this: a glass of water is more valuable to a guy in a desert than it is to a guy with a Brita. To understand value, we have to understand context. In this case, context is the team. So let’s talk about teams.

Non-Playoff Teams Need Not Apply

The assertion seems to be that about half of all players are disqualified from contention because their teams sucked. Imagine a player who scored more than a quarter of his team’s total goals and assisted in another 15%. Is he not valuable because his team valued him too much? The logic sort of unspools there. That player was Steven Stamkos, and using the NHL’s own definition of the Hart, he certainly deserved a look for last year’s trophy.

Here’s the thing. A great player on a bad team is more valuable to his team than an equally great player on a good team. This isn’t an argument of relative greatness (let’s say they have identical goals and assists); it’s an argument of value, which is the whole damn point of the award in the first place. So yes, sadly, players with good teammates should get “punished” because they are less valuable as a result.

No Goalies Allowed Either

The last goalie to win the Hart Trophy was Jose Theodore, back in 2001-2002. He posted a .931 save percentage in 67 games that year. Since then, Roberto Luongo, Mike Smith, Jonathan Quick, and Ryan Miller have had comparable seasons without the same recognition. Perhaps giving the Hart to a goalie is redundant since the Vezina Trophy, awarded to the best goalie, already exists. But Mike Smith’s performance in Phoenix last year and particularly Lou’s back in pre-lockout Florida were extremely valuable to their teams.

Maybe it’s just that goalies play fewer games a season than skaters. Now that you mention it…

The Games-Played Cutoff

Sidney Crosby will have played in 75% of games this season. That’s a larger percentage than Mario Lemieux played when he won the Hart in 1992-1993. By conventional wisdom, Crosby should not be eliminated from Hart contention, and I totally agree. While there seems to be some kind of minimum threshold of games played for someone to be considered a Hart nominee, it’s arbitrary. That’s okay: this is and should be a subjective award based on the individual value judgments made by its voters. I’m just here to question what those value judgments are, and this one seems legit.

To me, awarding the Hart is identifying the player who is more indispensable to his team than anyone else on any team. It’s not the player who– if you replaced him with some schmuck off the streets (let’s just call that schmuck Jussi Jokinen)– his team would still win six in a row and eight of their last ten games. That replaced player may still be fantastic (in fact, this hypothetical player from Nova Scotia might still be a slam-dunk for the Ted Lindsay), but his value proportional to his team is not as high as other players’.

All the points above are important in discussing how to differentiate good players, but they’re not really relevant to players’ values to their teams, and that’s what matters. Or is supposed to matter, at least.

I don’t know who will win the Hart Trophy. If it’s Crosby, the cynic in me would feel vindicated and the hockey fan in me would be delighted. But judging by public conversations about the Hart, the deliberative process is a mess– poorly defined and clouded by all kinds of dubious wisdom.

Predicting who will win the Hart is a sucker’s game. I usually find it more illuminating to talk in terms of “should” rather than “will” anyway. Especially in the case of the Hart Trophy, which is stupid.

Next: Why Ovi should win the stupid Hart.

p.s. -

Photo credit: J Pat Carter

Less than twenty minutes into the contest between the Washington Capitals and the Florida Panthers, the Caps’ big trade deadline acquisition, veteran winger Martin Erat, went awkwardly into the boards courtesy of a reckless shove by hulking young defenseman Eric Gudbranson. A few anxious seconds later, Caps fans were holding their breath as Marty was helped off the ice by his teammates, clearly favoring his right leg. Later on, the team referred to it as a “lower body injury.” Nothing to be happy about, of course, but it could have been so much worse, especially given Erat’s extensive concussion history.

“Wait! What concussion history?,” you may ask, and rightfully so. After all, Marty has been an NHLer for over a decade, and in all that time the Nashville Predators (his team since his debut in 2003) released exactly zero statements mentioning Martin Erat having a concussion. The ubiquitous “upper body injury” appears numerous times, but never a concussion. In fact, a Google search for “Martin Erat concussion” yields references to just one suspected case – an injury Erat suffered during the last World Championship. So, no worries then, right?

But what if someone actually asked Marty? Because someone did.

Last June, Russian sports portal sports.ru published an exclusive interview with Martin Erat. When reporter Maria Mikhalenko mentions this nasty late hit on Marty by a known cheap-shot artist Jarko Ruutu in the first round of 2011 Stanley Cup playoffs, the conversation takes an interesting turn:

Maria Mikhalenko: Did Ruutu’s hit make an impact?

Martin Erat: I felt alright after a while. It happened during last year playoffs.  It wasn’t a dirty hit. But he hit me directly in the head, and I got a concussion.

Mikhalenko: How many concussions have you had during your career?

Erat: Possibly four or five. Probably, the worst one was the one that happened last year, because I had had another concussion not long before. So when Ruutu hit me, that was the second one. I had headaches for a long time afterwards.  But I played through the playoffs, and then returned [to Nashville] during summer for the recovery. We have good doctors in Nashville. They always know what to do with me.

Four or five concussions, and just one known to have happened outside the NHL.

And the concussion Marty refers to as “probably the worst?” That one happened about a month after the NHL proudly announced its official, new and improved, Protocol for Concussion Evaluation and Management. Erat missed just two games before returning to the Preds lineup for their second round series against the Canucks. The Predators conveniently labelled that one an “upper body injury” – maybe just to be consistent with the “upper body injury” Erat suffered two weeks earlier– the one Erat said caused him to miss the last two games of the regular season.

A long list of Erat’s upper body frailties can be found on the Hockey News site under the Transactions tab.

I don’t meant to single out Nashville. Unfortunately, hiding behind the fig leaf of “upper body injury” is a norm throughout the NHL. Just a few days ago, Maple Leafs’ head coach Randy Carlyle shared his personal theory about concussions: the biggest problem with concussions is calling them concussions, which is a “bad word.” This sad comedy act came right after star forward Joffrey Lupul had to be helped off the ice in the game against the Flyers. Lupul appeared unsteady on his skates and disoriented as he left the ice surface – but hey, as long as we don’t call it a concussion, he should be fine, right?

Take a quick look at the NHL players currently listed as out with an upper body injury– 19 players. (The Predators and the Blue Jackets lead the pack with three guys each.) Are all of these 19 guys concussed? No. But as long as teams are allowed to hide behind such an ambiguity, all the NHL’s efforts to combat the concussion epidemic will just be lip service. The league and its players need transparency.

Photo via @SteeChain

When I got home from work tonight, I ate my feelings in homemade Hawaiian pizza (thanks, Ashley). I’m bummed about the Erat/Forsberg trade. As much as I love this team, I worry they are just not that great, getting older, and not actually improving along with their win-loss record. I hoped the Caps would flip some guys in the final years of their contracts for picks and prospects, but instead George McPhee did the opposite: trading part of the Caps’ future, Filip Forsberg, for Martin Erat, a 31-year-old left wing who is 249th in goal scoring and has a cap hit of $4.5 million. The team is better now, but I don’t know about their future.

It’s nice to know that I’m not the only one who is ambivalent. A few minutes after the trade was announced, Forsberg’s Wikipedia page was defaced. Like five times.

The final paragraph of Forsberg’s biography read like this:

On April 3, 2013, Forsberg was traded to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and Michael Latta.[sic] which might go down as the worst trade ever in the Washington Captials[sic] history.

It was then changed to this:

On April 3, 2013, Forsberg was traded to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and Michael Latta.[sic] which might go down as the best trade ever in the Washington Captials [sic] history.

And then, my favorite:

On April 3, 2013, Forsberg was traded to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and Michael Latta. [sic] which might go down as the worst trade ever in the Washington Captials [sic] history, but there is NO WAY OF KNOWING THIS FOR ABOUT 2-3 YEARS [sic, but a good point].

The page was eventually fixed, but not without some commentary:

On April 3, 2013, Forsberg was traded to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Martin Erat and Michael Latta. Capitals fans are mad, for good reasons.

Personally, I think the Jagr trade is, was, and will always will be the worst in Washington Capitals– and possibly human– history. And really, who knows how Forsberg will develop as he gets older. He might be a plug.

Regardless, McPhee sent a message to his team and its fans: Future be darned; we’re making the playoffs this year. I get that. But it seems I’m not alone in my wariness over this move.

Wow. Check out Filip Forsberg’s Wikipedia page en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filip_For… Cc. @dcsportsbog @russianmachine #Caps

— Armin Rosen (@ArminRosen) April 3, 2013