[Ed. note: This is our third article about the Washington Capitals before the trade deadline. Part I discussed the center position, and Part II compared the Caps home and away.]

Way back when Ian first blackmailed me into writing about the Capitals everyday, it was easy. The Caps were on the way to their best ever season, a copious and capacious 121-point campaign that was chock-full of nutritious, whole-grain scoarmoargoals. My job was basically to regurgitate some boxcar stats, writing something defamatory about the other team, and think of escalatingly ridiculous metaphors for the Caps’ awesomesauce.

It was terrific, but that’s over now.

I’m not gonna get into it, but I think we can agree that Capitals are having trouble this season– even if we differ about the precise degree of that trouble. And while there are many varied and valid ways to express our disappointment with the team, my endeavor is to be as sober and honest about the Capitals’ struggles as I had been drunken and boastful about their victories. Is that bumming you out?

Let’s start with common ground: we’re all fans. I know you’re an I-bleed-red Caps fanatic because you took time out of your busy day collating project plans and delivering deliverables to read this silly little blog post. You know that I’m a radicalized Caps psycho because I’ve written, edited. and proofed thousands of words about the team and because of that futile Matt Bradley vigil from last summer.

You and me? We’re kindred. Compatriots. Homies. We cheered for game four at MSG and the snowpocalyse and Perry’s hat trick, and we wept when Chris Clark got traded and Wides’ leg got split open like an over-ripe melon and when Sasha’s necklace broke. Any difference in opinion we may have about the present tense is just a little spat between siblings. Are we cool?

My personal mission statement for writing about hockey (beyond beating Japers Rink to publish game recaps) was to make the game as fun to read about as it was to watch. Now that watching hockey is somewhat less fun, I’m finding other reasons to write. Namely, to discover exactly why it was fun before and how our team can get back there.

Yeah, that means I point out how and when our boys play poorly. Addressing these problems– especially the systemic ones– without sentimentality or intellectual dishonesty is a moral imperative for hockey writing that I just made up just now. While that means my recaps are not as spaced-out and cartoony as they had been, I think they’re serving a purpose nonetheless.

The more we know about our team’s trouble, the more we know about our salvation. And if we pay close attention, we’ll see the beginning of that salvation before anyone else does. We’ll cheer louder for the players leading the charge and watch with rapt attention the ones on the cusp of turning it around– because we know what’s going on.

I don’t report sad stats because I’m a pessimist. I know it’s hard and unfair to judge intentions in other people, so here’s my solemn assurance the facts are objectively gnarly. Building a narrative around facts isn’t the same as letting an agenda dictate the story, although it is seductive to confuse the two. I’m not here clamoring for traffic, shouting fire in a crowded theater, or doing anything devious except looking for new ways to illuminate a mysterious and disappointing season.

And it’s not like we’re going to despair. Never that. The trend lines may head downward, but there is hope for this team. Of all the people I know who predict a gloomy spring for the Caps, none lacks something to which he looks forward. Whether it’s the looming advent of Evgeny Kuznetsov, the promise of an busy trade deadline by George McPhee, or the ever-increasing health of Nick Backstrom and Mike Green, there is always something rad on the horizon.

I resolve to do a better job of keeping these in perspective.

Because, eventually, this team is going to be on top again. I’m asking you to stick with them– and with us– until they do. When we all emerge from this long dark night together, the other side will be even brighter. That’s when RMNB will return to the gleeful, caffeine-adled, bleeding edge of sanity that we surfed until you found us in the first place.

In the meantime, we’re going to continue this brutal mirror staredown. But never without humor and never without hope.

When the Caps got blown out 7-0 by the Rangers in December of 2010, we initiated the Panic Protocol– an emergency policy that required a site redesign and the excommunication of all redheaded people from Facebook. It was a lark, as you all figured out eventually, but it had some meaning in that moment.

In that article, I used a song by Drive-By Truckers, “Gravity’s Gone”, to explain the seeming hopelessness of the Caps’ situation. To play us out, here’s me on the ukelele while the bulldog snores beside me.

Crash the net.

Thanks to Ana Hansen for her advice and pathological cheerfulness on this topic.

Photo credit: Kyle Mace

Known fighter Joel Rechlicz has played 5 minutes and 25 seconds of Capitals hockey this year. In his six shifts, he saw one shot go on his net and zero at the other. He has amassed no penalties and recorded no turnovers. He did ice the puck once though. That was fun.

Rechlicz’s one-year contract is for $525,000– which will count towards the Capitals’ already stressed salary cap. Rechlicz is a pure fighter, a dying breed in pro hockey. Adding him to the roster of the Washington Capitals (whose woes include a lacking offense, malformed defense, and poor road performances– but not fighting) seemed like an arbitrary acquisition– one that does not improve their prospects for winning and fritters away precious salary cap space just before the trade deadline.

But for all his detractors, Wrecker also has some defenders. On Wednesday’s edition of the Capitals Report podcast, Mike Vogel of WashingtonCaps.com and radio play-by-play guy John Walton discussed and defended the value of Rechlicz.

Mike Vogel: Rechlicz got two shifts [Tuesday] night. I think he would have got more ice if that game had been a little different score-wise, if it wouldn’t have been tight all the way. . . .

John Walton: Some of the media that were openly questioning the Rechlicz decision: “If you were gonna call someone up for two minutes, well why would you do it?” Well, there’s a very good reason. Because he’s not playing doesn’t mean his specter isn’t sitting over there.

And Steve Downie had a terrific assist on their first goal when Purcell scored. He was a choir boy last night. You didn’t see anything except the high stick that he had, which I don’t think there was any intent behind. Boy, there sure wasn’t much going on there. I think that changed the game from Washington’s perspective for the better. I think there absolutely was a reason [Rechlicz was there] and it was to negate Steve Downie…

Mike Vogel: Downie defintiely wasn’t running around trying to fight Karl Alzner last night. And he had one hit in 18:43 seconds of work.

John Walton: What does that yell you?

Mike Vogel: That was far below his numbers from a hit-to-minutes ratio.

John Walton: Number 54 [Rechlicz] might have had something to do with it

Steve Downie vs. Karl Alzner

Steve Downie is a noted pest in the Southeast Division and one of the least liked guys in the league. He has has 5 fights this season and more than 100 penalty minutes. On January 13, Downie hassled Karl Alzner until he submitted to a fight.

Vogel and Walton’s apparent assertion is that the threat of violence from Rechlicz was enough to discourage Downie from bad behavior, and that his 1 hit in 18:43 of ice time was evidence of this.

I’m not sure a guy with 34 career fights can be dissuaded by ominous threat of one more, but I’m not a fighter, so what do I know? Instead, I’ll dispute the part about Downie’s hit total being proof of good behavior.

Steve Downie averages 15:23 on ice during home games this season– during which he averages about 1.4 hits. On Tuesday, Downie recorded 1 hit in 18:43 of ice time. It was the 12th home game (out of 21) in which he delivered one hit or none.

I’ve got three thoughts, or one-tenth of a Friedman:

• Downie’s performance was not markedly different from the past.
• The assumption that Rechlicz’s presence had any effect is specious.
• $525,000 is a lot of money.

There is obvious value in keeping a team linchpin like Karl Alzner out of a fight, but I don’t see any reason why having Joel Rechlicz in a sweater helps avoid that fight. I also don’t see how a hit– which the NHL defines as a body check that removes the opposing player from the puck– correlates with the naughty behavior that Wrecker’s mere presence supposedly discourages.

We’ve discussed this before, but the peace-through-strength argument is ludicrous. Fighters fight to protect their teammates. When there are no teammates to protect, they fight to protect their jobs. The result of hiring a fighter is escalation and self-fulfillment.

It’s only been two games, but there’s no reason for us to think that Joel Rechlicz a) has something positive to contribute to this team, and b) will even have the opportunity to prove us wrong. And his presence diminished the ice time of Cody Eakin and Joel Ward and shortened an already short bench. The signing of a single-function goon while the Caps are already dysfunctional is absurd.

Perhaps his tenure with the big club will be temporary, but that would mean his presence was just another distraction for a team that has not yet mastered its new man-to-man defense and cannot sustain enough offense to outshoot opponents.

It’s unfair to make conclusions about the intent of decision-makers within the Capitals organization. So instead of casting aspersions and making guesses, we’re just bewildered.

[Ed. note: this is the second article in our series about the Capitals' struggles leading up to the trade deadline. The first Capitals During Wartime post addressed the team's problems with the center position.]

At the end of All-Star Break, the Washington Capitals sit in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Southeast Division, but their prospects for the postseason are not secure. The Southeast has two challengers– the Florida Panthers (with whom the Caps are virtually tied) and the Winnipeg Jets. Plus, the Capitals have a tough schedule down the stretch– including some tough games on the road. When Neil Greenberg at the Washington Post looked at the Caps’ remaining schedule, he was not encouraged.

That’s because the road is where the Capitals have had most of their troubles this season. The team’s home record of 18-6-1 is fourth best in the league, but away they are just 8-13-2, a dismal 25th. One spectacularly bad road game in Buffalo on November 26th probably cost Coach Boudreau his job. The power play and penalty kill perform vastly better in Verizon Center than they do when away. With 18 away games remaining, the Capitals will have to do better on the road if they want to make the playoffs.

The article looks at the Caps’ troubles away from D.C. from several angles: possession, shooting, special teams, and Alex Ovechkin. And because it’s interesting, I’m comparing Bruce Boudreau and Dale Hunter too. Uh oh.

Shooting

The Capitals are in deep trouble when it comes to generating offense. They are currently 28th in cumulative shots on goal and will likely become sole occupants of the league’s basement within a month. But surprisingly, the shooting malaise isn’t a problem of the road versus home.

The Capitals average 26.4 shots at home and 28.2 away. Both totals are measly. And it only tells half the story.

I counted even-strength shots both for and against, both home and away, under Hunter and under Boudreau.

The unfortunate conclusion here is that the Capitals can’t keep pace with their opponents– wherever they play. Specifically, during Dale Hunter’s time the Capitals have seen their hometown advantage on offense vanish.

It’s worth mentioning that the Capitals win over 70% of games when they outshoot their opponents (2nd best in the league), but only 45% when they’re outshot (17th in the league). If they win 45% of their remaining games, they will not make the playoffs.

At even strength, the Capitals have outshot just one team at home since Dale Hunter took over. It was the Calgary Flames. On the road, they have fared slightly better– just not recently. Right after Hunter came to town, the Caps outshot the Panthers, the Senators, the Jets, the Avalanche, and the Devils. But none of those teams are offensive powerhouses, and the Caps have been dominated ever since.

But at least it’s not a road-home thing.

Possession

Okay, okay. Not everyone is on board with advanced stats. But while a team’s overall record does a good job of telling you their outcomes so far, Fenwick is better at predicting their future.

Fenwick is the total of a team’s even-strength shots, goals, misses– subtracted by the opposing team’s total. I’ll tell you right now that the team is  minus-87 overall, and that ain’t good.

The team isn’t keeping pace with their opponents either at home or away. Yeah, it’s worse on the road, but what’s more noticeable is how the team’s possession has declined under Coach Hunter. Boudreau left the Capitals in the black — although much of that success was earned during the 7-game winning streak that opened the season. Since Hunter took over, possession at home has been obliterated.

These Fenwick scores disregard the game’s score. To be fair, the Caps are a bit stronger when the score is close (16th), but their dramatic drop-offs in possession when ahead or behind by at least two points exceeds other teams in the league (29th and 27th, respectively).

Power Play

The Capitals power play is ranked 13th overall with an 18.5% conversion rate. That middle-of-the-pack stat is hiding the truth of the matter, because this team is night-and-day depending on where they play.

The Capitals have a terrific power play in Chinatown, hitting the net almost a quarter of the time. But once they leave those friendly confines, the man-advantage falls off a cliff.

The good news is that the power play has gotten better in both circumstances under Coach Hunter. Not good enough, clearly, but progress is being made.

Penalty Kill

Same story. The Capitals are ranked 23rd with a dreary kill rate of 80.8% overall. But that’s an average of two disparate PK units.

The Caps are in the bottom five of special teams while on the road. Their home penalty kill is sterling — and has improved under Hunter, but they’re dragged down by a road unit that fails about once every four tries. There is no way to sugarcoat how bad the Caps are on the road when a man down, but maybe they could mitigate the problem by committing fewer penalties while away; they’re currently 16th in that stat.

Alex Ovechkin

And here’s the most curious thing. Alex Ovechkin, who by most accounts is in decline, seems to be slumping at home most of all. Just 6 of his 20 goals have come at Verizon Center.

Here are Alex’s average goals per game, shots per game, and shooting percentage.

Ovechkin is shooting 7.4% at home. A good deal of that is due to his scoring only one goal on 34 shots over 11 games under Boudreau. But even under Hunter, Ovechkin’s 10.6% is under his career average. It’s worth mentioning that Ovechkin has 9 more assists at home than he does on the road. Still, there is room for growth.

On the road, Ovechkin is playing more like his old self. He’s firing more shots (although not nearly enough for a former league leader), and he’s getting luckier with them. His 15.6% road shooting percentage isn’t Stamkos-ian, but it’s still pretty awesome.

Ovechkin has got to shoot more in both circumstances. Even if Ovi were to shoot his road average of 3.91 times per game, he’d still finish the season with the lowest shot total of his career. We really need him firing 5 or more on the net every single game.

And like the honey badger before him, Alex Ovechkin does not give a hoot about who his coach is. His scoring drought at home snapped under Hunter, but his road performance has been identical. If Boudreau was fired because he “lost” Alex Ovechkin, Hunter hasn’t effected a change in the captain.

Conclusions

The Capitals need to shoot more. Doesn’t matter if they’re at home or away, they just need to fire more pucks at the net. They’re in immediate danger of becoming the most harmless team in the NHL. At home under Coach Hunter, the team has lost its offensive passion. The road is hardly better, and the nadir was reached on January 18th when the Caps fired just 10 even-strength shots in Montreal. That they somehow won that game is  heartwarming, dumbfounding, and seductive. No team can sustain success without more offense.

The home power-play unit is elite, but the away power-play unit is awful. The penalty kill is the same, but there have been improvements under Dale Hunter. In the tight games that the new coach says he is keen to play, these goals will often be the margin of victory or defeat. And if the Caps can’t get their road PK unit crackling, they need to commit fewer penalties. We’re looking at you, Bad Sasha.

Beyond the road-versus-home stuff, there is a compelling but uncomfortable conclusion we have to reach: the Washington Capitals have gotten worse under Dale Hunter. His modest improvements on special teams have been offset by deflated by even-strength performance. This team stunned the NHL two years ago with the best offense since Detroit in ’06, but now they’re headed for dead last in shots on goal. If firing Boudreau was supposed to turn this team around quickly, it failed. If it is supposed to improve the team in the long term, the trend lines are heading in the wrong direction.

When we previewed the Caps schedule, we told you to put a big circle around the ides of March. There are three road games in four nights– and they’re against Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia– three of the league’s best teams. Those three games will come after the trade deadline, which is George McPhee‘s last chance to make a course correction for a wayward season. If the Caps can prove themselves in those games, we’ll know that this team is still capable of great things.

In the meantime, we need to figure out why it is that a talented team can have such trouble away from their home arena. Is it the off-ice amenities– like a short commute and mama’s home-cooking–  that make the difference? Could it be that the Caps are more acclimated to the notoriously harsh and groin-sundering ice conditions at Verizon Center? Is it the customary unleashing of fury that makes the Caps turn up the heat  or maybe the 5 or 6 times they play Pantera’s “Walk” over the PA every single game? Is it The Horn Guy? Is it Goat? Is it Wes?

I have no earthly idea, but I’d like to hear your opinion.

Why do the Caps struggle on the road? How can they fix it?

I would have liked to embed this Tenacious D video here, but there are like 20 billion naughty words in it. So with my stern NSFW warning, feel free to check it out. All data from NHL and Behind the Net. If you’d like to see my compiled dataset, let me know. And finally, this:

Few jobs in the NHL suck more than Brendan Shanahan‘s. As the guy in charge of player safety, Shanahan has presided over 26 suspensions so far this season. Shanahan began publishing videos to document each infraction and provide transparency to a process that had been considered arbitrary in previous years.

I didn’t pay too much attention to supplemental discipline until this week, when Alex Ovechkin earned a three-game suspension for charging Zbynek Michalek. Ovechkin’s was the 10th three-game suspension of the year. With a big enough sample for comparison and Shanahan’s explanation for each, we’re finally able to peer into the underlying logic– and fairness– behind these rulings.

Ideally, all illegal hits can be placed on a spectrum from insignificant and benign to profound and malicious. Many factors would determine each hit’s location on that spectrum: the logistical mechanics of the hit, the context of the game, the language of the rule that governs it, the history of the players involved, the on-ice ruling, and (maybe) any ensuing injury.

In a perfect world, the resultant discipline (either fine, suspension, or both) would correlate to the severity of the infraction; more serious violations yield longer suspensions and bigger fines.

Let’s look at similar hits and compare them and their punishments.

Jan 22: Alex Ovechkin, Charging, 3 Games

Alex Ovechkin launches himself into the air to hit Zbynek Michalek, who is not in a vulnerable position and has just passed the puck. Ovechkin does not target the head, but he does hit it. Ovechkin is not a repeat offender by the definition of the CBA, but has a 22-month-old boarding  infraction and a 26-month-old kneeing infraction. Michalek does not appear injured and remains in the game.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player left his feet
• Contact to the head, unintentional
• No call on the play
• No injury on the play
• Not a repeat offender, but has a history of on-ice hits

In the suspension video, Brendan Shanahan says that once he went airborne, Ovechkin was responsible for any contact to Michalek’s head– even if that wasn’t the principle point of contact. That seems like a reasonable decision for accountability, and I won’t refute it.

Shanahan says that his decision took into consideration both of Alex Ovechkin’s fines and suspensions– even though they both are outside of the 18-month window that the CBA defines for “repeat offender” status. Shanahan also notes that both of those prior infractions were due to physicality. More on this later.

When I commented on the hit and the possibility disciple on the night of the hit, I wrote that Michalek was falling before the hit– leading to the contact with his head– and I underestimated the apparent deliberation behind Ovechkin launching himself into the hit. I was wrong. The angle that Shanahan uses in his video is illuminating. It certainly justifies some amount of discipline, and it raises other questions that we’re not really equipped to answer: what factors inform the decision for suspension and to what degree?

The best clues we have are the “key point” bullets that Shanahan delivers in his videos– an elemental deconstruction of each hit. If the system is truly fair, we should be able to reverse engineer each hit and suspension to discover a rubric for punishment. If we can’t divine their logic, then we have revealed the new discipline administration is just as arbitrary as its predecessor– and they’re just using cool videos and bullet points as a obfuscatory firewall.

Of the 10 three-game suspensions this season*, only two were similar to Ovechkin’s. Those hits were Mark Fistric charging on December 7 and Deryk Engelland‘s flying elbow on December 22.

Let’s look at each.

Dec 7: Mark Fistric, Charging, 3 Games

Fistric leaves his skates, launching himself to hit New York’s Nino Neiderreiter, who has just received a pass along the boards at center ice. Fistric targets and hits the head with a full-body check. Neiderreiter suffers a concussion and misses the rest of the game and beyond. No penalty is assessed. Fistric is not a repeat offender, but had been fined for on-ice violence 23 months earlier.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player left his feet
• Targeted the head
• No call on the play
• Concussion on the play
• Not a repeat offender, but has a history of on-ice mayhem

Neiderreiter missed five games due to his concussion.

Dec 22: Deryk Engelland, Elbowing, 3 Games

Engelland approaches Chicago’s Marcus Kruger, who has the puck entering the Pittsburgh zone. Engelland delivers a check to the head and leaves his skates upon the hit. Engelland is not penalized for the check. Kruger plays some of the game’s remainder and misses the next game. Engelland has no history of supplemental discipline.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player leaves his feet upon impact
• Targeted the head
• No call on the play
• Concussion on the play
• Not a repeat offender, clean record

Kruger missed one game due to his concussion.

Comparison

All three hits have factors in common that could explain the equal punishment. They each could have been legal hockey plays, until the violating players leave their skates or target their opponent’s head. No  penalties were called on any of these hits. None of these players are considered repeat offenders by the CBA.

But there are stark differences as well. Ovechkin’s history of on-ice collision is explicitly mentioned as a factor in judgment. Fistric’s history of on-ice mayhem is mentioned but dismissed for not being germane.

Both Fistric and Engelland overtly target the heads of their opponents. The contact between Ovechkin and Michalek began as shoulder-to-shoulder. Again, the stated policy is that an airborne players is responsible for a hit to the head even if the head was not a target. But intent should not be assumed.

Finally, Fistric and Engelland cause concussions in their victims. 5 man-games were lost to Fistric’s hit; 1 to Engelland’s. No time was lost to the Ovechkin hit.

Perhaps Shanahan considered Kruger’s and Neiderreiter’s injuries as counterbalance to Ovechkin’s history– so he handed down the same sentence for all three. But that explanation isn’t credible, as Ovechkin’s history is beyond the window that the CBA allows for consideration. Unless Shanahan is ignoring the definition of repeat offender and making his judgments based on personality, which is what I assert he is doing.

I’d argue that the deliberation apparent in Fistric’s and Engelland’s hits was malicious and that the outcome of those hits was far greater than that of Ovechkin’s hit. Put another way– Fistric and Engelland targeted players’ heads and injured them; Alex Ovechkin targeted a player’s shoulder and did not injure him. Two were malicious; the other was reckless.

But they received the same penalty. Why?

Was Ovechkin suspended disproportionately because he is perceived — perhaps accurately– as being stubborn and ignorant to the danger of his play? Is the league fearful of him seriously injuring another player in the future, and are they using the suspension to modify his behavior? Is Ovechkin punished more aggressively because he is a star? Or (if you’re wearing a tin-foil hat) is Ovechkin persecuted because he is not North American?

Some of those questions are unfair, but they will all linger until personal interpretation is removed from the decision-making process for punishment.

Just as on-ice officials are given leeway to interpret the game and inject their own narrative, so too has Brendan Shanahan been allowed to punish players based on whim– rather than the letter of the law. And just as officials are routinely criticized for bias (“Typical Montreal”) and sometimes accused of corruption, so too will Brendan Shanahan until true transparency is granted.

That means a specific formula for punishment– open to the public. Five people different in five rooms can look at an incident, apply the formula, and reach the same result: Left skates + targeted head + concussion = 3 games. Left skates + targeted shoulder, hit head + history of hits = 3 games. Whatever.

But that’s not going to happen. And until then, bromides like “boys will be boys” and “let the boys play” will mask the biases that hockey authorities are not willing or able to confront.

Other Three-Game Suspensions

Jan 16: Dane Byers, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Jan 9: Jean-Francois Jacques, Elbowing, 3 Games

Jan 1: Ian Cole, Elbowing, 3 Games

Nov 11: Max Pacioretty, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Nov 25: Andre Deveaux, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Nov 16: Chris Stewart, Hit From Behind, 3 Games

Additional research by Ian Oland.

* We have excluded preseason suspensions from our analysis because losing a preseason game is considered less punitive than missing a regular-season game.

Screengrab via @CarrottBazooka

Since Alex Ovechkin has opted out of the All-Star Weekend (and has better things to do anyway), Dennis Wideman is now Washington’s lone representative in Ottawa. While Wideman is perhaps slightly less likely to don a hat and sunglasses and do trick shots, he’s a Capital, so we love him all the same. We’ll be covering Wideman’s foray into the glamorous life of an All-Star, so check back for updates, because let’s face it, you’re already bored without hockey.

Dennis Wideman was picked in the 15th round with the second-to-last pick that could be used on a defenseman, before only Canucks defenseman Alexander Edler. This means that we can get hipster now if we want and call him underrated. We knew Dennis Wideman when he wasn’t cool. Logan Couture was picked last overall and won a brand new caaaaarrrrr! Somehow it just wasn’t the same without Ovechkin there laughing and taking pictures.

Best Moments

• Pavel Datsyuk went first overall to Team Chara. Erik Karlsson got picked first for Team Alfredsson because he babysits Alfie’s kids, apparently.
• Alfie got confused about what round it was multiple times, leading to excellent cutaways of him asking everyone around him.
• Do the Leafs suck? I feel unsure. I wish that someone would have clarified this.

• Carey Price, clearly not expecting to be picked by a Bruin and a Leaf, had a mouthful of water when he was picked by Team Chara, and spent a good thirty seconds remembering how to swallow. It wasn’t an actual spit-take, but it was close.
• James Duthie somehow talked to Tim Thomas about the White House scandal without ever once actually mentioning what happened. Because, you know, he wouldn’t want to distract from the event at hand.

Best Quotes

• Joffrey Lupul on being booed every time he took the podium: “I like it. I don’t want to be cheered in Ottawa anyway.”
• Jason Spezza: “I owe Malkin 20 bucks. I told him he’d get picked before me.”
• Carey Price: “Is Z going for offense or defense? Wait remember, there’s no defense.”
• Tonight in unintentional rhymes: “Our third pick…Jonathan Quick.”
• Jarome Iginla to Patrick Kane: “Hey, what’s up man?” Kane: “Yeah, you too.”

via penslove.tumblr.com

• Chara to Tyler Seguin after making him wait till the second-to-last round: “Hug it out?”
• Cody Hodgson on ending up on Team Chara “It wasn’t my choice.” Pained face.
• Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson discussing Sedin mythology: “I wonder if him and his brother will have any chemistry in the game?” “Doubtful.” “Aliens.” “They know where to pass the puck without even talking. It’s insane.”
• Alfredsson on Marion Gaborik being picked by Team Chara: “We were hoping Gaborik would be left, but Hank said you can’t score on him anyway.”

Important Questions

• Do they know who each team is going to draft beforehand, or do they just have two of each sweater for everyone?
• Who is most desperately in need of a haircut: Letang, Stamkos, or Hartnell? Discuss.
• What do you call a person who lives in Ottawa? Is it Ottawan? Ottawaian? Ottauan?

A historic Twitter moment.

Over the weekend, the internet embarrassed itself once again when a Penn State student website called the Onward State prematurely reported Joe Paterno’s death. At 8:45 PM on Saturday, the website tweeted: “Our sources can now confirm: Joseph Vincent Paterno has passed away tonight at the age of 85.” CBS Sports, The Huffington Post, and SB Nation — all in a rush to get their stories up first to rank well in Google — posted stories of their own minutes later without attributing their information or checking their own sources. The Paterno family debunked the news shortly thereafter and a lot of yolk was on a lot of peoples’ faces.

The student editor of the newspaper stepped down hours later, but the aftermath has spread far beyond that, not the least of which has been the many voices blaming Twitter for the spread of false information. Ronnie Ramos of the National Sports Journalism Center offers a counterpoint here, positing that the problem is not with Twitter itself, but with simply reporting responsibly in any medium.

We here at Russian Machine happen to think that Twitter is awesome. While of course there are pitfalls to such a rapid-fire, scoop-obsessed form of news sharing, that speed itself and the ways in which information is able to be shared are changing news media every day. Mistakes happen–especially when information is not properly sourced and credited, which is a lesson that we learned again this weekend–but the sheer volume and accessibility of information is at an all-time high, even for the casual newsreader, or the casual fan.

Where Twitter has at least as much, if not even more value, though, is as a community-building tool–you can find those who share your interests by doing no more than simply clicking a hashtag. It can be great for concise, short-form discussion (CROSBY SUX!!1 / NO OVECHKIN SUXX!!), great for a communal joke (#Sh*tCapsFansSay)–and absolutely unbeatable for venting and reacting in the moment. Ravens choked at the last moment? Yell “NO! NOOOoooooo” on Twitter, as well, my entire feed did Sunday afternoon. Mad about Alex Semin’s latest stick penalty?

Commiserate with a thousand of your closest friends. (Video via Peter Robbio of Chirps From The Ledge)

Mistakes and incorrect stories are hardly a new phenomenon in journalism, and it’s worth noting that as quickly as an erroneous story can be spread on Twitter, it can just as quickly be corrected, as it was in the Paterno story in that same wildfire social-media way. We love Twitter because we love you guys, all six thousand of you — it’s not quite like being able to watch a game in a stadium and talk to every single other person there, but it’s getting very close.

Additional opining by Ana Hansen.

[Editors note: over the next month, we'll be looking at the challenges the Capitals face, the trade deadline, and the playoff chase. It's not gonna be fun, but we gotta do this.]

When Nick Backstrom took a blow to the head from Rene Bourque on January 3rd, the Capitals lost the service of their number-one center. Backstrom was on track for a better than 80-point season, which would have been a strong recovery from the slump of ’10-’11. Instead, the team lost the anchor for its top line and its most productive forward.

Without Backstrom, the Capitals have only three strong options for centers: Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, Jeff Halpern. Additionally, Mathieu Perreault, Cody Eakin, and Matt Hendricks have done center duty in a pinch. Meanwhile, the Capitals offense has  been shut out twice in the last three games and have averaged only 23 shots on goal since mid-December. That’s just not good enough.

Marcus Johansson is a talented skater who has a bright future, but he cannot be expected to put up more than 20 goals or 50 points so early in his career. He’s not yet the offensive presence that the first (or even second) line demands, and he’s still a liability on the face-off dot (winning a little over 43%).

Brooks Laich is a team leader and an admirably committed defensive forward. His penalty kill service– sometimes stickless– has distinguished him on the Capitals’ end of the ice, where he starts most shifts. But Brooks’ scoring output is flat this season (8G, 15A). Besides, he is only an ersatz centerman who has spent most of his career on the wing. Laich’s move to center — either on the 2nd or 3rd lines– was a move of necessity.

The once and current Capital Jeff Halpern is the third best face-off guy in the NHL (behind Pavelski and Toews). George McPhee may not have been looking for a replacement for Dave Steckel (who is ranked 5th) last summer, but he got one anyway. Halpern’s solidarity on the dot and modest offensive lean have made him one of the best surprises of the season, but he hasn’t been a top-6 forward in years.

Compare that to the Pittsburgh Penguins, a team notoriously strong up the middle: Jordan Staal, Sidney Crosby (when healthy), Evgeni Malkin, and even Tyler Kennedy supply the core of the Pittsburgh offense. It’s common wisdom that building a good hockey team starts from the center position, but the Capitals are hollow between their wings.

And the Capitals can’t look elsewhere in the organization for help. Keith Aucoin is certainly a future AHL Hall of Famer, but his NHL window has come and gone. Ryan Potulny has NHL experience at center but– at age 27– is in a situation similar to Aucoin. Mattias Sjogren threw a hissy fit last year and left North America. RMNB phenom Evgeny Kuznetsov is prolific, but he’s weak on the face-off and will require some adjustment to his defensive game when he makes the jump. The pipeline is not strong.

Since Sergei Fedorov left North America at the end of the 2009 season, the Capitals have been without a solid second line center. Now that Nick Backstrom is injured, the Ovechkin line is anchorless as well. Guys like Jason Arnott, Eric Belanger, Michael Nylander, Victor Kozlov, and Tomas Fleischmann yielded varying results at center and could not be sustained.

The Capitals have tried training Marcus Johansson on the job as a top line center. They tried moving Brooks Laich off of the wing. They tried giving the grinding expert Jeff Halpern a chance at the big time. Nothing has worked. The lack of viable centers on the Washington roster is George McPhee’s lasting disappointment. Now that the Washington Capitals are firing fewer shots than at any point since the lockout, the lack of a strong playmaking center is more pronounced than ever.

2011-2012 shot total is a projection based on shots through game 46.

Acquiring a center before the deadline will not be easy, and it will not come cheap. But it’s desperately needed for the immediate and long-term needs of this team.

What do you think McPhee should do?

Additional reporting by Ian Oland.

Photo credit: Michael Martin

For those of you who stayed up late Saturday with the hopes of getting an up-close-and-personal look at #AvsFailWatch, sorry. The Capitals are scuffling. The team has mustered only one goal in each of the past three games (1-2-0), they have failed to win more than two straight games since starting the season 7-0, and they have an unimpressive 4-5-0 record since Dale Hunter was hired as coach. 31 games into the season, the Caps are in 11th place in the Eastern Conference and would not qualify for the playoffs if they started today. Bummer city.

While it’s easy to fret about all the unmet expectations this season, there are also some positive changes going on– though you might have to get out a magnifying glass to see them.

First, the Capitals are giving up nearly one less goal per game under Hunter (3.27 GAA with Bruce, 2.55 with Dale). Five-on-five, the Capitals are finally subscribing to more of a chip-and-chase system and are trying to be a tougher team to compete against. “Unfortunately, it’s a really hard way to play,” Tomas Vokoun recently explained to CSN’s Chuck Gormley. “But it’s the only way you can win a Stanley Cup. And the sooner we learn it as a team the better off we’re going to be.”

There are other positives too. 20-year-old defenseman Dmitry Orlov, whom Bruce Boudreau said in November was called-up to give the defensive corps “a spark,” has shown that he can play at the NHL level and contribute offensively (five points in 13 games) without being overly aggressive in joining the rush. He will only get better with time. Jeff Schultz, who has struggled off-and-on since signing a four-year deal in 2010, has been scratched the last few games and is getting individual attention from new Caps assistant coach Jim Johnson in the hopes of regaining his lost form. Even Alex Semin has been getting some tough love from his new coach, which — I’m sure we’d all agree — is a long time coming. Tarik El-Bashir explains:

When Alexander Semin complained about shoulder soreness before the Dec. 3 game against Ottawa, Hunter told the enigmatic winger to take the night off. He gave him the next game off, too, just for good measure. An NHL source confirmed that Semin was healthy enough to play in both games.

And then there’s the Caps captain. While Alex Ovechkin has not had much more luck potting goals (though these two recent tallies were pretty impressive) or racketing up points, he has been playing with a renewed vigor. And the statistics tell the tale.

Ovechkin, who has a lifetime shooting percentage of 11.8%, is stuck at 8.5% right now. If he continues to shoot like he has been, the goals will come.

It seems like Hunter is trying to take pressure off his 26-year-old left wing too. In the Capitals’ practice a day ahead of their game against the Avalanche, Ovechkin threw on Neuvy’s gear and took some shots in net.

The next day, as cameras captured Alex walking into the Pepsi Center, he threw some gang signs.

Screengrabs via carrotbazooka on Tumblr.

While the significance of Ovi having fun with the cameras is minimal, having your superstar captain happy, relaxed, and committed is a necessity. No one liked this guy.

So while the lack of offense is excruciating, we’ve got to have faith. The Caps will continue to practice hard and master their new system. The goals will eventually come. And if they don’t, well, Mike Green (Caps are 8-0-0 this year when he plays) has to return to the line-up sometime. Right?

Tuesday night is a big deal. For the first time since February 10, 2008, Jaromir Jagr will play hockey at Verizon Center. Since he is perhaps the most reviled person in Washington Capitals history, there’s no way this doesn’t get ugly.

As a Pittsburgh Penguin, Jaromir Jagr finished eight seasons with more than 90 points, ran flak for Mario Lemieux, and beat the hell out of the Caps in five of six playoff series. Then something even worse happened: he became a Washington Capital.

Fans can have honest disagreement about what the dark days of the Washington Capitals actually were. No wait; they can’t. That first season going a pathetic 8-67-5 doesn’t come close to unbridled misery of the Jaromir Jagr era (October 6, 2001 – January 21, 2004). It began like this: Acquired from a broke Pittsburgh team, Jagr would earn eleven million dollars a  year as a Capital.

But he never hit 40 goals, he never hit 90 points, and he never hit other skaters (okay, maybe a few times). Like an incompetent cowboy wrangling through the wilderness, Jagr went his own way. Even paired with the esteemed Robert Lang and given oodles of ice, Jagr was a catastrophic waste of time and resources. He set off a chain of disastrous events that escalated until the Fire Sale and the coming of Alex Ovechkin.

But at the time, owner Ted Leonsis touted the acquisition as if it were the Caps’ entrance to the big time:

This puts us on the national scene, because we now have a really, really great hockey team. I hope this knocks the chip off people’s shoulders in Washington and they come out and buy tickets. Now’s the time to prove this is a hockey town, that it loves sports, and we’re as good a team as any others. [Washington Post, July 12, 2001]

Jagr had been poison to D.C. through the 1990s, but the organization (including GM George McPhee) considered him the missing puzzle piece. This consideration somehow overlooked the declining speed of a once-gifted skater; his dependence on the 90′s biggest playmaker, Mario Dagnabbit Lemieux; and his diminishing constitution and increasing weight.

The Caps never won the Southeast Division with Jagr. They saw only one playoff series, winning only two games in it. Jagr played hurt. Also: poorly.

Two and a half years later, Leonsis and McPhee agreed to eat $20M of Jagr’s bill and ship his ass up to Manhattan… where the bastard started producing again, putting up 123 points in 05-06.

Jaromir Jagr set back the Washington Capitals by half a decade. Jaromir Jagr rendered unto dust a plucky Capitals fanbase. Jaromir Jagr frittered away tens of millions of dollars. Jaromir Jagr tainted the autumn of Peter Bondra’s career. Jaromir Jagr skulked and dissembled throughout his time in Washington and never embraced the fans.

But now Jaromir Jagr is forgotten. We found scoring in Alex Ovechkin, fortitude in Nick Backstrom, leadership in Chris Clark and Sergei Fedorov and Brooks Laich and Mike Knuble and a half dozen other guys.

Whatshisname with the mullet shadow and bad attitude? Who cares.

After a few years getting paid truckloads of money in the KHL, word circulated that Jagr was interested in finishing his career back in America. The rumors washed over us like Omsk rainwater off the hood a freshly waxed Ferrari. Somebody else’s problem, we thought. We’ve already got our team.

Jagr flirted with Pittsburgh, but he ultimately flaked out and spurned them in favor of the Philadelphia Flyers, who were willing to pay more and had fractionally fewer disabled superstars. Jagr is now making $3.3 million dollars to play hockey in that putrid orange sweater. He’s already got 10 goals on the season without getting much time on ice.

Jagr has now played on four of the seven teams in what must inevitably become known as The Jagr Conference. Because that’s the kind of sick world in which we live.

And on Tuesday night, Jaromir Jagr comes home. Not his real home. Not even his fake home. D.C. is just some place from which Jagr took $40 million dollars and change; the pride of hockey faithful; and one huge, steaming, metaphorical dump of hockey.

Welcome back, 68.

Photo credit: Robert Beck/SI

(Photo credit: @clydeorama. Go check out Clyde’s site.)

Rituals bind us to one another. In a fan community, rituals take many forms. In the clothing we wear, the cheers we shout, the fives we high– that’s where togetherness happens. It’s like a wholesome mob mentality, and everyone’s allowed in the mob so long as they can do a couple simple things.

Problem is: sometimes those rituals get us into trouble. Some rituals become bad habits, and those bad habits have got to go. You know what I’m talking about: It’s all your fault, Who Cares?, RED!, and a certain nickname for Sidney Crosby. It’s not cool anymore. Let’s discuss.

“It’s all your fault”

Imagine a Capitals player scoring a goal. I ask you to use your imagination because my recent memory is coming up blank. To make it slightly easier, pretend it’s the Caps best goal-scorer Jason Chimera doing the deed. Once P.A. Announcer Wes Johnson growls out the scorer’s name, the red army typically berates the defeated goalie with a taunt of “it’s all your fault!”

There are three ways to categorize a goal: due to scorer skill, due to goalie error, or due to some combination of the two. When the crowd at Verizon Center says, “It’s all your fault!”, they’re also relieving the scorer of any responsibility for that goal. Jason Chimera worked hard for that goal, but you’re saying he got it just because the other guy was incompetent.

Instead: Don’t.

RED!

After witnessing the siege of Fort McHenry in Baltimore, Frederick native Francis Scott Key wrote a poem that was later set to the tune of an old British drinking song.  ”The Star-Spangled Banner” became our national anthem a century later, and it’s been performed at sporting events since the 1950′s. The lyrics remind us that America’s very existence is owed to many valorous dead. In Chinatown, Caps fans memorialize America’s patriots by tunelessly shouting “Red!” during the “rocket’s red glare” line.

Beyond being rude to singer Caleb Green (who is too much of a pro to ever let it shake him), the shouting is dumb. And I say this as a purveyor of dumb things. It’s no more clever than guffawing whenever the number 69 appears. (Heh.) There are many ways to enjoy the national anthem, and all of them are valid so long as this is a nominally free country. But we can do better than this.

Instead: Sing it loud! Or stand silently. Or sit in quiet protest. In America it’s your call, but you don’t have to be a dick about it. (We’ll tackle the “O” thing another time.)

Who cares!

When the opposing team scores at Verizon Center, Wes has the solemn duty to read the scorer, assist, and time of goal. As soon as he finishes, the crowd shouts, “Who cares!”

For context, as of game 23 the Capitals are third-to-last in the league in goals against per game– averaging 3.22. We all care deeply that goals are being scored against our team. If not, we should.

Perhaps when the Caps are leading by 6 goals and Mathieu Perreault is taking his shifts in the cage just for a giggle, it’d be cool. But that’s not right now. Right now our team is fighting for every precious goal it can get, and every puck in our net is a minor tragedy. “Who cares” is false bravado at the wrong time. So….

Instead: Don’t.

Cindy Crysby

When fans discuss star players from other teams, character assassination is hard to avoid. That’s why we get Alex Semin is a diver, P.K Subban is a jerk, and I wouldn’t pee on Danny Briere if he were caked in napalm and I’ve been pounding Gatorades all day. But that stuff is kind of quaint. So too is calling Sidney Crosby a whiner. After all, thanks to 24/7, we’ve got incontrovertible video documentation of Sidney Crosby being a whiner.

Some fans call him Cindy Crysby. Crysby is a little obvious and punny, but I guess it’s fine. Cindy, on the other hand… Here’s why that’s a dick move. You see your sister, mother, girlfriend, wife, daughter sitting next to you? She heard that. And now she’s internalizing what you said– that being a girl is a bad thing. That women have no place in sports, regardless of what mindblowing stuff my 15-year-old cousin is doing on that blueline in Vermont. When you call him Cindy as an insult, you’re perpetuating that boys club nonsense, and it is keeping a pretty cool sport on the fringes.

Sidney Crosby is back,  but he’s still worth mocking. Not because he’s a little bitch and not because we wish serious injury upon him, but because he’s our opponent. We can find new and better ways to talk trash. For now, we’ll toe a fine line.

Instead: Create a poster like this:

But I’m not trying to be a downer; there’s a ton of good habits among Caps fans too. The 100% participation rate for “Unleash the Fury” is still inspiring, and we’ll always have The Horn Guy and Goat to get the crowd going. Maybe we could deal with a few “Crash! The! Net!” cheers and maybe a “ka-NOOOOOOO-ble” chant, but that stuff will come in time.

Verizon Center always explodes in applause for military folks. That’s fantastic. Since there ain’t no way I’m fighting, I’m happy to thank those who will and have. I suppose you guys feel the same. Right on.

Then there’s the rally balloon, an emerging and possibly fleeting trend of spurring a comeback by floating a creepy red balloon out over the ice. That one’s a bit mischievous, isn’t it? It’ll pass for now.

And then there’s my favorite: the D.C Hat Trick. We haven’t seen this one recently, and you may not know it at all, so I’ll explain. When a player scores two goals in regulation and then scores during the shootout, fans at Verizon Center lose their dang minds! It’s great! Even though that goal doesn’t really count at all, Caps fans throw hats on the ice and hoot and holler like history has just been made. This is awesome and should never stop.

Don’t ever change, D.C. We love you just the way you are. Except for, ya know, all the stuff I listed at the top. Change that right away.

Illustration by Ian Oland