Statistical Analysis

My Apology, and How We Got Here

On April 24, 2013, In Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

Photo credit: Patrick McDermott

Sooooooooo… I was wrong about the Capitals. And I’m sorry.

Early in the season, I waved away the Caps’ struggles, citing some strong puck possession numbers. But as those numbers eroded and the Caps kept losing, I hedged my bets. The Capitals were giving up too many penalties, performing poorly on the kill, and were not really tilting the ice. By the middle of February, I became wary. Cut to early March, when my last ounce of pollyannaish pluck was depleted. I said the Capitals weren’t headed for the playoffs, that their possession was debilitating, and that a turn of good luck wouldn’t be enough to turn their fortunes around.

I was wrong all over. My bad.

The Washington Capitals at the Halfway Mark

On March 10, 2013, In Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

I have no idea who the Washington Capitals are. We are exactly halfway into the 2013 season, and the team seems to change identities on pace with the weather. After one of the slowest starts in memory, the Caps put forth some pretty stirring wins in late February. But now in March, the team seems poised to miss the postseason for the first time since 2007– unless they can turn things around.

This article takes stock of the Capitals’ first half and asks what the back half could look like. Plus like 7 megs of Game of Thrones GIFs.

Tagged with: #fancystats • Game of Thrones • Mike Ribeiro • Washington Capitals

Braden Holtby’s Shutouts > Pekka Rinne’s Shutouts

On March 2, 2013, In Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

Photo credit: Jonathan Kozub

Braden Holtby‘s 35-stop afternoon in Manitoba puts him in a three-way tie in shutouts (3) alongside Nashville’s Pekka Rinne and Phoenix’s Mike Smith.

I guess the first thing I should say is that shutouts, while awesome, are kind of a silly way to evaluate a goalie. Goalies don’t control the number of shots they face, just the percentage of that number they stop. That in mind, I thought we’d do a quick comparison of how these guys came to be the league’s shutout leaders.

Tagged with: Braden Holtby • Mike Smith • Pekka Rinne • Shutout

Penalties, Luck, and Goaltending: Figuring Out What’s Wrong with the Capitals

On February 9, 2013, In Analysis, Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

Photo credit: Patrick McDermott

A few weeks ago I published a piece explaining why I wasn’t freaking out the Capitals. My point was that bad luck had been quashing good possession numbers, a trend that I predicted would soon reverse. That did not happen.

The Caps have just two wins through eleven games, making them the worst team in the league. During media time on Friday, General Manager George McPhee primarily blamed that record on bad goaltending and undisciplined, “selfish” penalties. CSN’s Alan May agrees.

I admitted on Thursday night that I was baffled by why the Caps were losing, so I thought we could use this time to figure out what exactly isn’t working. Because I’m pretty sure it’s not the penalties.

Tagged with: Alex Ovechkin • Braden Holtby • George McPhee • Michal Neuvirth • Mike Ribeiro • Washington Capitals

What is Wrong with Marcus Johansson?

On February 4, 2013, In Analysis, Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

Photo credit: Chris Gordon

For the Capitals, there’s a lot to keep track of right now. We’ve noticed Alex Ovechkin’s scoring slump, a whole lotta penalties, and some bad breaks for the goalies. One thing we haven’t noticed is Marcus Johansson, and that’s a big problem too.

In 2011-2012, Johansson scored 14 goals and 32 assists, shooting a pretty boss 15.6%. That was enough to make him the team’s third best scorer behind the Alexes, a crucial piece of a lean team.

Not so much this year. Through seven games, Johansson’s stat line looks like this: 0, 0, 0%.

Tagged with: Marcus Johansson • Washington Capitals

Why I’m Not Freaking Out About the Capitals

On January 30, 2013, In Analysis, Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

The Capitals are 1-4-1. They’re in 14th place in the Eastern Conference, 7 standings points behind the Southeast Division-leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

I’m not panicking.

Despite how desperate the standings look, the Capitals are actually playing darn good hockey right now according to their underlying numbers. Let’s take a look at those together and then have a warm glass of milk.

Tagged with: Adam Oates • Alex Ovechkin • Michal Neuvirth • PDO

Oh No: Wojtek Wolski is an Enigma

On July 11, 2012, In Analysis, Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

No big. Anyone can score on a Philly goaltender.

Robert Vollman of Hockey Prospectus called the Washington Capitals’ new forward Wojtek Wolski enigmatic. Heaven help us; that whole thing is supposed to be over. But here we are: dealing with an all-new, all-Polish, puzzling player.

Wolski earned between $2.5M and $4M over the last four seasons, but his deal with the Caps is for just $600,00. This could either be an epic bargain on a top-six forward or a waste of time and money. I’m not sure yet what we can expect from him next season, but maybe we can figure it out together.

Tagged with: Washington Capitals • Wojtek Wolski

The Hangover: A Final Look at Hunter Hockey

On May 15, 2012, In Opinion, Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

Photo credit: Rob Carr

Dale Hunter is finished as the head coach of the Washington Capitals. Whether you think that is a good thing or a bad thing seems to be a 50/50 split. How fitting for a coach who played what J.P. called “coin-flip hockey.”

Hunter is being praised for bringing accountability and commitment to the Capitals. Shot blocking totals are evidence of that. But regardless of the invaluable cultural changes Hunter enacted in D.C., I think his leaving is for the best. Let me tell you why.

Tagged with: Dale Hunter • Washington Capitals

The Hangover: Playoffs by the Numbers

On May 14, 2012, In Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

Welp, the Washington Capitals got knocked out of the playoffs again, and we’re totally exasperated. Here’s the part of the year where we wonder what went wrong.

Here’s also the part where the scoundrels will try to wrest away the discussion from right-thinking individuals. Before the loudmouths start throwing around sweeping generalizations and platitudes, I’m going to try to get some actual, objective information out there.

What follows is a breakdown of how the Capitals postseason went down– strictly by the numbers.

Tagged with: Alex Ovechkin • Boston Bruins • New York Rangers • Washington Capitals

A Flashback to Capitals vs Rangers 2011

On April 27, 2012, In Analysis, Playoffs, Statistical Analysis, By Peter Hassett

The Washington Capitals have pulled the New York Rangers for their opponent in the second round of the playoffs (check the schedule here). This will be the sixth time in history that the Caps and Rangers will square off in a best-of-seven series. But unlike recent years, the Rangers are no underdogs. They finished in first place in the Eastern Conference, just barely missing the President’s Trophy after a loss to some no-name team in the final game of the regular season. Meanwhile the Caps are the scrappy team that no one expected to slay the dragon in round one. It’s going to be a big series between two old Patrick Division rivals.

In preparation, we peaked back at last year’s quarterfinal series between the Caps and Rangers in hopes that it might give us a glimpse at the future. No matter their predictive value, these five games were a freaking blast. Join me for some good memories behind the jump.

Tagged with: Alex Semin • Braden Holtby • Brandon Dubinsky • Jason Arnott • Jason Chimera • Marc Staal • Marcus Johansson • Michal Neuvirth • New York Rangers

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Russian Machine Never Breaks

My Apology, and How We Got Here

The Washington Capitals at the Halfway Mark

Braden Holtby’s Shutouts > Pekka Rinne’s Shutouts

Penalties, Luck, and Goaltending: Figuring Out What’s Wrong with the Capitals

What is Wrong with Marcus Johansson?

Why I’m Not Freaking Out About the Capitals

Oh No: Wojtek Wolski is an Enigma

The Hangover: A Final Look at Hunter Hockey

The Hangover: Playoffs by the Numbers

A Flashback to Capitals vs Rangers 2011

Got A Hockey Tip?

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Peter Hassett

Chris Gordon

Igor Kleyner

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