It’s Wednesday, so it’s time for another Wednesday Webhits! The big topic of the week is obviously the Winter Olympics, and Puck Prospectus has given us a nice break-down of the top four Olympic hockey teams from a statistical perspective. And don’t worry, this post is not all about international competition, as we also take a look at the top scoring blue lines in the NHL, the top individual scorers (naturally with a healthy Washington presence), and – in a follow-up to a link from last week – what the optimal shift length should be. (Take note Sashas)

United States: 4th Place – http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=460

“The United States is a dark horse. In terms of talent they are a cut below Canada, Russia and Sweden, but if they play as a unit and get outstanding goaltending they are a candidate to muscle their way into top three finish. It’s been 30 years since Lake Placid, and while an American gold medal wouldn’t exactly be quite as unexpected as it was then, it still would be a minor miracle for this edition of Team USA to come out on top. If that script does play out, expect Ryan Miller to fill the Jim Craig role as the goalie who was largely responsible for backstopping the team to an upset victory. In all likelihood, however, the Americans will simply be outgunned when they run into one of Russia, Canada or Sweden in the medal round.”

Sweden: Bronze Medal – http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=461

“According to the GVT projections, Puck Prospectus has predicted a bronze medal for the Swedish Olympic team. That is probably a safe bet, but it would not be surprising in the least to see the triple-crown in the gold medal game once again. Let’s put it this way: The Swedes have a better chance of finishing above the third place prediction than below it.”

Canada: Silver Medal – http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=462

“After looking up and down this Olympic roster, you can see that Canada has no real weaknesses. They have two #1 goalies that are among the best in the business, the best blue line of any team with only Sweden coming close and forwards that match up favorably against every team except Russia’s. They must be considered co-favorites, along with the Russians, to reach the finals. Anything else will be a day of mourning in Canada.”

Russia: Gold Medal – http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=463

“Team Russia has the best offense hands down, and that’s the major reason why they’re statistically the favorites to win Gold. The key to upsetting Team Russia is to take advantage of their suspect defense, which we’ve calculated as just barely edging out Team Finland for 5th. Given the single-elimination nature of the Olympics it isn’t fair to expect that the Russians will automatically win Gold, but given their explosive offense and beatable defense, we can definitely expect some of the most exciting hockey we’ve seen in quite some time.”

http://www.fromtherink.com/2010/2/16/1311965/the-leagues-top-scoring-blue-lines

“For starters, I did expect teams like the Capitals (league-best 247 goals for) and Sharks (second-best 204 goals for) to rank somewhere in the top five. I didn’t expect a division leader like the Devils to finish dead last.”

Washington’s blue line – led by Mike Green – are 6th in goals, 5th in assists, and 5th in points.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/2/15/1310038/2010/2/15/1310038/nhl-mid-season-statistics-leaders

I’m shocked – shocked! – that Alex Ovechkin is first in the NHL in points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice team at 4.12. Only slightly less surprising are two more Capitals in the top 6, with Alex Semin at #5 (3.33 points) and Nicklas Backstrom at #6 (3.01 points).

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/2/11/1305245/optimal-even-strength-shift-length

“And indeed that is true of Corsi percentage – the percentage of total shots that are shots for:

The small uptick for 0-6 seconds is from the attacking team’s defensemen jumping over the boards on an offensive rush.  The defending team had better not be changing when the puck is coming into its end!  At any rate, the break-even point is around 40 seconds, which is roughly the average even-strength shift length league-wide, and things fall apart after that.

By 70 seconds, only 40% of total shots are shots for.  To put that in perspective, only the absolute worst players in the NHL have shot totals at that level – 40% for, 60% against.  Staying on the ice even just a bit beyond a minute usually turns the average NHL player into a defensive catastrophe on the scale of Wade Belak.  Shifts like this are relatively rare, but most players seem to have one egregiously long one per game, with, as you can see above, mediocre results.”

This week we look at Alex Ovechkin’s chances of going down as the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history, a break-down of last week’s big Kovalchuk trade, a look at the change in average shift length for today’s players versus those from 10 years ago (with a certain Capital being a rare exception), and busting a few common myths using the Vancouver Canucks as an example.

I had to wrangle these links up quickly, since I forgot what day it was. That’s when happens when you’re snowed in for almost a week without seeing the outside world. At least I had my spreadsheets to keep me busy.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/2/4/1291994/alex-ovechkin-will-he-be-the-all

If you project things out about as well as they can go, Ovie might finish with as many as 1,009 goals. Hawerchuk isn’t quite buying that though (nor should he):

“Let’s look at that progression in another way – where Ovechkin’s annual goal total would rank all time at each age: (projections bolded and highlighted in blue)

So Ovechkin, whose seasonal goal total has ranked an average of 10th at ages 20-24, will post totals in the top three by age in 12 of the next 16 seasons…

I believe that there is presently no significant likelihood that Alex Ovechkin finishes his career with 894 goals.  He needs to display an uncommon level of durability for the next decade, and not just lead the league in goal-scoring, but do so by such a wide margin that he scores as much as Gretzky, Hull or Lemieux did in an era with vastly higher offensive levels.  No player has ever dominated the NHL in that way – even Gretzky’s peak lasted only six years, and by age 27, he was no longer durable, and he was no longer guaranteed to lead the league in scoring.  Clearly 650 goals is not out-of-the-question – just not 900.”

And 650 goals is nothing to sneeze at.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=455

A nice analysis of the trade between the Thrashers and the Devils. The conclusion seems to be that Atlanta did fine on getting back equal total value, but didn’t get that one big piece that would have made it a win for them.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/2/10/1270271/shift-length-change-since-1997-98

“The NHL has been collecting detailed ice time statistics since the 1997-98 season.  One interesting thing that we can see is a shift in individual shift lengths:

This is the distribution of year-long average shift lengths by player, not the distribution of all shift lengths – the average shift length has dropped 7% over the last decade, from a 50-second average to 46.5 seconds.”

Ovie is actually a bit of an outlier, in that his shift lengths have been up over 65 seconds the last couple years.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=452

“Myth No. 1: Teams play worse as a road trip lengthens.

There is no tendency for teams to play worse as a road trip lengthens. Yes, it is true that road teams are less successful than home teams, but that is only exacerbated when a team plays back-to-back games.

On average, road teams have been outscored by 0.3 goals per game this season. But road teams playing for the second night in a row are outscored by 0.55 goals. Luckily for the Canucks, only three of their 16 games are back-to-back.

In addition, over the last four seasons, teams playing in their fourth, fifth or sixth consecutive road game have fared no worse than those playing in their first three games. And oddly enough, teams seem to fare better in the fourth game of a road trip than the third.”

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/2/2/1221771/leverage-pre-and-post-lockout

“Leverage is a concept that gets used a lot in baseball – it’s essentially the probability of winning at a given point in a game. In hockey, unlike baseball, teams are awarded a point for losing, so leverage actually captures not winning percentage, but the expected number of points a team can expect in the standings given the score and the time remaining in the game…

What I want to draw your attention to is the difference between the two charts.  In particular, there is a significant leverage difference in tie games:

Basically, the “loser point” has completely changed third-period incentives.  Giving up a tie-breaking goal in the last five minutes of the game is now approximately one quarter point more costly than it was before the lockout, while scoring that same goal is worth one quarter point less than it was before.  NHL teams are obviously aware of these incentives, and it should come as no surprise that a record high percentage of games have been tied at the end of regulation time this season.  I know of no other sport that works like post-lockout hockey – as long as teams don’t decide to game system any more than they already do, it can probably continue.  But the incentive is to play for the tie whenever you can, and the system can easily fall completely out of its unsteady equilibrium.”

I know I’m beating a dead horse on this, but the system is bad.

http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2010/02/hogwash-of-big-saves.html

“If there exist some goals that are unstoppable and a goalie can’t predict his team’s future offence, which are two basic assumptions that obviously hold in hockey, there really is very little opportunity for a goalie to mess with the scoreline without costing his team. And that is why attempts to explain away poor individual save statistics with references to a goalie’s win total are just biased nonsense.

Long story short, the next time you hear an announcer say something like, “It’s not how many saves you make, it’s when you make them”, what he’s actually telling you is, “I have no idea how to separate the contribution of a goalie from the contribution of the rest of the team.”"

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=448

Ovie stays at #4, where he’s been for a while. He’s the top non-goalie in the ranking at 21 Goals Versus Threshold.

“Nothing says success like a 10-game winning streak, and the most comforting thing for the Capitals is that it’s not all Ovechkin. While the captain has an impressive 18 points over those nine games, that still leaves 27 goals on which he wasn’t involved.”

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=442

Mike Green was ranked as the Easterns Conference’s top defenseman, and second in the NHL behind Chicago’s Duncan Keith. Three Capitals made it amongst the forwards, with Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin all ranked in the top 7.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/21/1261318/nhl-points-per-game-peak-age

I was meaning to do an age study using Goals Versus Threshold instead (and I still may, at some point), but PPG should be a pretty good proxy.

“For my sample, I looked at all NHL players born 1962-79 who played exclusively in the NHL, AHL or IHL from Age 21 to Age 29.  I assumed that AHL and IHL points were worth 45% of an NHL point.  The average points-per-game at each age came out as follows:

The peak age is just slightly more than 25.  The peak age actually falls at approximately 25 for a wide range of NHL equivalencies for the minors.  This is also roughly the same result as you get if you restrict your dataset solely to players with careers longer than 200 games and you look at the number of NHL games played at each age.  Other methods don’t give substantially divergent results – even the most or least restrictive datasets result in peaks between age 24 and 26.”

Awesome.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/1/25/1269445/points-predictions

“Looking at every season since the lockout gives us 120 completed seasons.  In 36 of those seasons a team’s points percentage through 50 games predicted that same team’s points percentage over the last 32 games within a 5% range.  So a team who won 60% of their points through the first 50 games would win between 55% and 65% of their points over the last 32 games about one third of the time.  In the other 84 seasons a team’s point percentage changed by more than that +/- 5% range.  About forty percent of the time (48 seasons) the change was greater than a range of +/- 10%.  In other words, a team that earned 60% of their points through the first fifty games earned less than 50% or more than 70% through the last 32 games four times out of ten.  That is a lot of variance…

So… what about the playoffs?  I’m not sure what the conventional wisdom is right now.  I think it’s fair to say that some folks believe being “hot” going into the playoffs is important and others think it makes no difference.  The results from the last four years would seem to imply that a team’s performance in their last 32 games is more predictive than their performance through their first 50, despite the smaller sample of games.  The following chart tells us how well standings points predicted the winner of a playoff series (a “tie” means the two teams had an equal points percentage):

Maybe that’s all just variance and the full season stats will come out ahead in the end but I’m not all that confident.  The “Full Season” results performed the best relative to the “Last 32″ in the 2005-06 playoffs when all three methods took a bit of a kicking.  Right now 32 games looks pretty good but it’s probably not the ideal breaking point.  I wonder where that “sweet spot” is.”

That would indeed be an interesting thing to find out.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=438

Since goalie valuation is still difficult to do using statistics – and valuation using ones’ eyes can be quite faulty over a long period of time – looking at single game subjective opinions using star selections might be handy.

“For all goalies with at least 25 games played in 2009-10, I tallied up the total number of three star selections and divided that by games played to get a Star Selection Percentage. Here is the correlation between that statistic and the other traditional goalie stats (all of which are expressed as a per-game rate for the most accurate comparison):

Correlation with Star Selection Percentage:

Winning Percentage:      0.31
Shutouts per Game:       0.32
Goals Against Average:  -0.53
Save Percentage:         0.76

The goalies that most often impressed the observers were not the ones who were most likely to be on the winning team or shut out the opposition. Instead, they were the goalies with the highest save percentages.”

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=436

“The main factors that affect shot quality (distance, rebounds, game situation, game score) are well known. Simply weight each shot by its expected chance of resulting in a goal, do the difference of for and against as in Corsi, and voila! Delta, the love-child of Corsi and plus-minus, is born.”

Delta is then adjusted for a zone-neutral environment and for quality of competition.

Three Capitals showed up in the top 30 from last season:

"Player		    Pos Team	Delta	DeltaS	DeltaSO
ZACH PARISE	    L	njd	16.0	15.6	15.3
MARC-EDOUARD VLASIC D	san	15.3	14.6	14.5
COREY PERRY	    R	ana	14.1	13.2	14.0
PATRICK O'SULLIVAN  C	lak	14.2	13.5	13.6
MARC METHOT	    D	cls	14.2	13.8	13.6
JAROSLAV SPACEK	    D	buf	14.1	14.2	13.6
ERIC STAAL	    C	car	13.4	13.5	13.5
RYAN GETZLAF	    C	ana	13.3	12.4	13.3
MILAN MICHALEK	    L	san	14.5	13.3	13.2
JOE PAVELSKI	    C	san	13.7	13.3	13.1
RYAN SMYTH	    L	col	12.0	12.7	13.0
JOHAN FRANZEN	    C	det	12.1	12.2	12.8
ROB BLAKE	    D	san	13.4	12.6	12.3
ALEXANDER SEMIN	    L	was	14.3	13.2	12.2
JAMIE LANGENBRUNNER R	njd	12.7	12.4	12.1
ANDREW LADD	    L	chi	 9.1	10.8	11.8
RYANE CLOWE	    L	san	12.8	11.9	11.7
DAYMOND LANGKOW	    C	cgy	12.2	11.6	11.5
CHRIS KUNITZ	    L	ana	10.5	10.1	10.8
TRAVIS ZAJAC	    C	njd	11.3	11.1	10.8
BRIAN RAFALSKI	    D	det	10.6	 9.8	10.7
NICKLAS LIDSTROM    D	det	10.5	 9.7	10.6
JOE THORNTON	    C	san	12.3	10.6	10.6
MARTIN HAVLAT	    R	chi	10.0	 9.8	10.4
DAN BOYLE	    D	san	12.6	10.6	10.0
MIKE GREEN	    D	was	13.4	11.1	10.0
ANZE KOPITAR	    C	lak	 9.4	 9.3	 9.9
KYLE QUINCEY	    D	lak	10.9	 9.6	 9.9
MARIAN HOSSA	    R	det	10.1	 9.4	 9.7
ERIC FEHR	    R	was	10.7	 9.9	 9.3"

Something to keep an eye on going forward.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/19/1185179/taking-a-beating-league-leaders-in

“We all know who the big hitters are, but have you ever wondered who gets hit the most?”

Looking only at roads hits to remove some of the scoring bias, Stephane Robidas (191) and Douglas Murray (187) are the guys who have gotten hit the most over the last two years.

Recently departed Capital Michael Nylander is 6th in getting hit ratio, having dished out just 7 hits while taking 53 himself. No Caps were amongst the top 19 in hit ratio, with Trent Hunter leading the pack there (153 hits, 63 hits against).

With the high-powered offense, there isn’t a ton of need for Washington to be overly physical.

http://hockproject.blogspot.com/2010/01/save-percentage-adjusted-for-penalty.html

While save percentage may be one of the better stats for goalies, it still doesn’t take into account the quality of the shots faced. That issue can be ameliorated a bit by adjusting for how well and how often goalies face the penalty kill.

“As of now the top ten goalies in SV% with at least ten games played are:

1. Ryan Miller .936
2. Tukka Rask .930
3. Jimmy Howard .928
4. Jaroslav Halak .927
5. Mikka Kiprusoff .926
6. Henriq Lunqvist .926
7. Peter Budaj .925
8. Evgeni Nabokov .925
9. Seymon Varlamov .924
10. Tomas Vokoun .924

What I’m going to do though is make an adjustment for the Shot Quality effect on the PK, and thus make an adjusted SV% for that situation; here are the top ten in that stat:

1. Ryan Miller .941
2. Seymon Varlamov .941
3. Peter Budaj .938
4. Jimmy Howard .937
5. Tomas Vokoun .937
6. Mikka Kiprusoff .933
7. Henrik Lunqvist .932
8. Martin Brodeur .932
9. Tukka Rask .931
10. Evgeni Nabokov, Jaroslav Halak and Ilya Bryzgalov .930″

Varly hasn’t done particularly well on the penalty kill (.844 SV%), so when making an adjustment for that he vaults up to virtually the top of the rankings. Now if he could spend more time on the ice, that would be fantastic.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/14/1250611/the-nhls-best-even-strength

Hawerchuk “estimated the expected number of goals that each player should have scored each year based on the locations of the shots he took – because rebounds are high-percentage shots… only looked at initial shots to assess pure shooting” and then compared to the actual number of goals scored. Ilya Kovalchuk was easily tops, having scored about 51 more goals than would be expected. The Capitals’ two Alexanders were 7th (Ovie, 27 more goals) and 12th (Semin, 19 more goals). Nice to have a couple of sharp-shooters like that on one’s team.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=426

The Western Conference has been stronger than the Eastern Conference this year:

“Through last weekend, in head-to-head matchups between Eastern and Western teams this season, the West has won 70 in regulation and 16 more in overtime or shootouts, compared to the East’s marks of 47 wins in regulation and 17 in overtime. In those games, the West has outscored the East by a total of 44 goals and outshot them by 155 shots…

While the worst team in the NHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, has an address on the East Coast, even the better teams in the Eastern Conference have trouble with the top Western teams: of the 42 East-West games between the top eight teams from each Conference, the West has won 29, the East just 13.

This is not to say that the Eastern Conference is without elite teams. The New Jersey Devils may be the most complete team in the NHL, the Washington Capitals have the most explosive offense, the Buffalo Sabres have the best goaltender and the Pittsburgh Penguins are the defending Stanley Cup champions. But of the three teams that can lay claim to being at the head of the class at the halfway point of the season, two reside in the West, with the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks joining New Jersey.”

Despite having to go through the tougher competition, the Blackhawks are still the team with the best odds to reach the Stanley Cup Finals.

"Team       Odds
Blackhawks 31%
Devils     29%
Capitals   21%
Sharks     19%
Sabres     16%
Canucks    15%
Flames     11%
Penguins   10%

“Ultimately, you have to beat the other conference’s top team to win the Cup and the two favorites both reside in the West. Both the Blackhawks and the Sharks would be favored in a head-to-head matchup with any Eastern team, while the Canucks (predicted to pass over the Avalanche in our projections) and Flames would be underdogs to the Devils and Capitals, but favorites against the Penguins or Sabres.”

(Almost) anything can happen in a short series, and being one of the top few contenders for the Cup is about as good as any team can reasonably expect.

One of the great things about the internet is that different people can make advancements in a field (like hockey analysis) that work together, build off each other, and provide new ideas and techniques that everyone can utilize. It’s a very cool phenomenon.

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2010/1/10/1233023/price-halak-the-stats-december-2009

Chris Boyle compares Montreal Canadiens goalies Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak with some really great, in-depth analysis. He breaks down the quality of the goals each allowed into good, bad, and suspect. There are graphics for where in the net goals where scored, including some breakdowns of the circumstances of some of the goals (who, from where, type of shot, etc). There’s a look at save percentage on shots from various distances. Just fantastic work, all around.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/6/1234466/how-much-do-ufas-and-rfas-cost-per

Hawerchuk looks at the players signed last off-season and their projections for this season to get an idea of the going rate of a win.

For unrestricted free agents it was $2.23 M per projected win, and for restricted free agents it was $1.33 M per projected win.

The 40% discount rate jibes well with my intuition, since in Major League Baseball a player in his three arbitration years will get about an 60%-40%-20% discount off of full market value in successive years. That averages out to the same 40%.

I had been using $3 M per win as the going rate on the free agent market, so it’s good to have that figure updated.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3288#more-3288

Countering: “Generally, what sets the NHL apart from the far more predictable (and parity-free) NBA is the curious effect that team play and chemistry, coaching and camaraderie can have on results.”

With: “The more opportunities you give to the better team, the more likely skill will win out.

In the other post that I’ve linked, he did some math and concluded that, to have the same reliability in terms of knowing the strength of a given team, you’d need a 32 game schedule in the NBA, a 28 game schedule in the NFL, an 82 game schedule in the NHL and a 162 game schedule in MLB. This, I think, gives rise to an alternate theory to “team play, chemistry, coaching and camaraderie” – we (or those of us who care about basketball) know a lot more about an NBA team from the preceding season’s results than we do about an NHL team… I’m inclined to think that “team play and chemistry, coaching and camaraderie” is a euphemism for variance.”

And throws in an example from Tom Tango: “Suppose, for example, that a tennis match lasted only one set. That is, a set is a match. Would Federer win 88% (or whatever it is) of his matches? No, of course not. If he’s winning 88% of his matches because he’s winning 65% (or whatever it is) of his sets, then having a one-set match means he’d only win 65% of the time. Similarly, if you had 7-game or 9-game matches (spread say over two days) then he’d win 95% or 99% of his matches. He’d look unbeatable (except for when he plays Nadal).”

Yup. Intangibles are what you reference when you don’t have something else to reference to make your point. The NBA isn’t more predictable because of chemistry – it’s more predictable because of the inherent structure of the sport.

http://campbellandwales.wordpress.com/2010/01/09/team-profile-washington-capitals/

“While a compelling narrative could be made for the New Jersey Devils, a quick look at the divisional standings shouts hosannas to the Buffalo Sabres, I continue to hold on to the belief that the Washington Capitals are the strongest team in this year’s Eastern Conference…

Green has ten goals (4 on the power play) and 31 assists. Looking at the advanced numbers, he is currently 2nd in the league (behind only Duncan Keith of the ‘Hawks) in Tom Awad’s Goals-Versus-Threshold (GVT) statistic, comparing a player’s contributions to what would be expected from a non-prospect from the AHL at +11.8. His adjusted +/- is currently +8.2. One thing worth keeping in mind, however, is his Quality of Competition score, as tracked by behindthenet.ca. At 0.021, he is only 5th among Washington blue-liners, suggesting that Boudreau may be shielding him from the best their opponents have to offer, and leaving the heavy defensive lifting to Tom Poti, big Shaone Morrisonn and bigger Jeff Schultz. With a relative +/- of 11.4 (2nd on the team), 23-year-old Schultz, a former 1st rounder may be an unsung hero on the Washington blue-line. Among regular D-men, Schultz also leads the Caps in blocked shots per 60 minutes at 5.6 and has the highest Corsi Rating (measuring the difference in shots on goal for and against while a given player is on the ice), at 7.1 among Capital defenders…

Ovechkin plays with All-World line-mates, generally teaming up with compatriot Alex Semin on the other wing, sandwiching Nicklas Backstrom, possibly the most overshadowed player in the game today…

this depth, in the forward lines as well as the back-line, and the solid goaltending provided by Varlamov, will propel the Washington Capitals to the top of the Eastern Conference in May and to the Stanley Cup Finals.”

Nice.

I also wanted to congratulate to Japers’ Rink on being ranked the top NHL Blog. I look forward to doing so in person next week.

There’s also a bit on one Cap’s under-appreciated skill, which Olympic team has the highest paid players, how to go about building a team, and who the top fighters since the lockout are.

I should note that I don’t think fighting is a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I do find it entertaining (when it’s done well).

http://www.puckprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=90

“Hockey is a young man’s game, so there’s a big difference between signing a 21 year old Nicklas Backstrom and signing a 25 year old Alexander Semin. Take the top 20 skaters thus far this season by Goals Versus Threshold: their average age is only 25 years old while the oldest is Pavel Datsyuk at merely 30 years old. Signing Nicklas Backstrom (10.8 GVT, 12th in NHL) for multiple years during his peak makes more sense than signing injury-prone Alexander Semin (8.0 GVT, 29th in NHL) for multiple years at slightly past his peak. The Caps are set up for significant cap flexibility after next season: currently Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green are the only significant contracts on the books for 2011-12.”

Makes sense to me. Backstrom might not have Semin’s natural talent, but you’re not paying for perfect world hockey; you’re paying for actual expected production on the ice. And right now, it seems to me that Backstrom gives you more of it, especially relative to the price.

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/2010/01/celebrating-unsung-bests-and-worsts-of.html

Dave Steckel receives an honorable mention with his 61.5% face-off win percentage, just a tenth of a percent behind Paul Gaustad.

http://www.fearthefin.com/2010/1/1/1229706/olympic-rosters-the-salary-cap#storyjump

Using payroll to judge the various Olympic teams’ chances is an interesting exercise.

Canada’s cap number is about $128 M (for 23 players), which is far-and-away the highest mark.

Russia is at $66.4 M for just 14 players, and the US comes in at $85.2 M for 23 players.

Looks like the Canadian team is the odds-on favorite, especially playing on home ice.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3288#more-3288

The main article talks about the decline of the Detroit Red Wings and how that relates to the quality of their front office. The comments sections is an interesting read on paying big money for goalies, managing contracts, etc.

“We’re about halfway through the season right now, and the distribution of corsi Sv% looks identical to what would be expected by chance alone. I.e. – in even a sample size of half a year, there’s no discernible “skill” amongst the population of NHL goaltenders.

If I were an NHL GM, there’s no [cough] way I’d spend any kind of money on goaltending. I’d trust my scouts to pick me out a couple guys who belong to the population, and I’d pay them as little as possible.

I can’t understand why one would bet big money on something in which there is so much uncertainty and randomness wrt true equity or “edge”. To boot, if the equity exists it takes so much time to realize, that most of the utility is lost.”

It’s an interesting question. Having a couple young decent goaltenders on the cheap sounds pretty nice though.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/4/1230232/nhl-fighting-and-chess-revisited

Former Capitals brawling aficionado Donald Brashear comes in as the fourth best fighter since the lockout, using the ELO rating system (like in chess) which looks at the quality of competition and not just wins/losses.

* My contract apparently goes through the end of time, which latest info says will be December 21st, 2012. Plan to start (and finish) your Christmas shopping a little early that year!

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=404

Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov are two of the 10 goalies this year with the largest difference between their even strength save percentage and their penalty kill save percentage. Theodore has been worse by 8.8% (.915 to .827), while Varly has been worse by 9.7% (.941 to .844).

The penalty kill save percentage is in a smaller sample size though, and so there isn’t as much reason to worry as you’d think:

“Philadelphia and Washington both have a much better save percentage at even strength than on the penalty kill, which indicates that the teams have struggled on special teams. However, since the goalies have been able to make saves during 5 on 5 it seems likely that their performance will likely improve as well while shorthanded, and that should help the Flyers and Capitals going forward.”

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=402

Mike Knuble has just about doubles his even-strength points per 60 minutes from 2008 to 2009 (1.5 to 3.0), and is one of the top 10 forwards in the league in that respect this year.

“For Washington’s Knuble it’s a case of responding extremely well to opportunities playing alongside obscenely talented linemates.”

The Capitals actually have 9 forwards scoring at least 1.7 points per 60 minutes, which is tied for the most in the NHL.

“In Washington it could be a case of spreading out their truly elite scorers (Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin) in such a way that it artificially inflates checking line players like Matt Bradley.”

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/12/28/1208675/players-of-the-decade-per-game

Not really a surprise, but Ovie’s #1 at 56.1 goals per 82 games. “Backstrom”, who I assume is Washington’s own Nicklas Backstrom, is 6th in assists at 61.4 per 82 games. Going to overall points, Ovechkin drops to 3rd at 106.3 per 82 games, with Sidney Crosby (boo!) on top at 112.3.

“It’s always strange for me to think that Crosby has drawn so much flak in his short career. He’s been a dominant offensive player playing against the other teams’ top lines. His path to the Stanley Cup was two years shorter than Wayne Gretzky’s. He led the league in scoring when he was 19. I suppose things could be worse: he could have *actually* done something wrong!”

Well yeah, Hawerchuk, if you want to be all “objective” about it. But what’s the fun in that?

http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2009/12/why-offence-rules-new-nhl.html

In the playoffs since 2006, the team with the better regular season winning percentage won 61% of the series.
The team with more goals scored won 62% of the time.
The team with the better win threshold won 63% of the time.
The team with fewer goals allowed won just 45% of the time.
The team with the better regular season save percentage won 42% of the time.

(Thus the title, Why Offence Rules The New NHL)

Because of the way points are awarded for getting to over-time, good defensive teams have a bit of an advantage in the regular season (and so in getting to the playoffs). Once in though, it looks like it comes down to which team has the most fire-power. Considering the Capitals are a near lock to make it to the post-season, their scoring ability might prove a decisive advantage.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=401

Roundtable discussion with everyone mostly in agreement that the way points are awarded now isn’t good:

“Think about it: right now, if the game is tied with three minutes to go, your team has three options: 1) win (worth 2 points); 2) lose (0 points); or 3) tie (worth 1.5 points.) So your incentive to win is +0.5 points, while your disincentive to lose is -1.5 points. When giving up an extra goal is three times as bad as scoring one is good, you’re not going to try to score! Make it three points for a regulation win, and in addition make one more goal equivalent to one more goal against – plus each team will have a shot at a 3rd point. Of course, this would tend to favor good teams and decrease parity, so it’ll never get approved by the league…

Therefore if ANY team were to somehow manage to eliminate regulation scoring altogether, either with a new system or by cooperating with their opponents, they would finish the season with 123 points and a top playoff seed. In essence, the shootout creates a statistical incentive to reduce scoring, especially for the weaker teams. It also creates the illusion of league parity where there is none, often allowing inferior teams to advance to the postseason and denying us more compelling playoff matchups.”

I agree 100%. The system seems blatantly dumb on it’s face to me. Maybe I’d be more in favor of this kind of parity if the Capitals were a mediocre defensively oriented team, but just from a theoretical aspect it should be fixed.

This weekly post will deliver powerfully interesting links that will make you laugh, cry and maybe even kiss that dumb brain goodbye.

This week learn about ties, an awesomely great fighter, why EA Sports hates the Capitals and how Jose Theodore’s current flashy statistics might be a little misleading… Take it away Daniel!

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/12/21/1210151/wall-street-journal-column-nhl

“Whether any team will admit it, they’ve started to take advantage of the extra points available to them if they play for the tie.”

Given the way the rules are set up regarding points, a cost-benefit analysis makes it pretty clear that it’s better to play it safe an assure yourself of at least one point than to take any risks late in a tie game.

I like the idea to change things to: 3 points for a win in regulation, 2 in OT, and 1 for an OTL. 0 points for losing in regulation.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/12/11/1192502/rick-rypien

If you’re going to fight, you might as well be good at it. You know; using both hands and throwing combinations, actually defending yourself, etc. I think Anderson Silva could learn to skate a little bit, and boy would he make a good enforcer.

http://hockproject.blogspot.com/2009/12/summary-of-goaltending-metrics.html

(1) Wins are largely useless for judging goalies, since they are a team stat.

(2) Goals Against Average doesn’t consider how many shots a goalie faced.

(3) Save Percentage doesn’t consider the difficulty of the shots that a goalie faced.

“And I think that defines the mantra that hockey statisticians strive by,

“It’s not about being perfect, it’s about being better than before.””

I’ll drink to that!

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=396

“A great goalie playing shorthanded is much more likely to give up a goal than a mediocre goalie playing with five skaters on each side.”

Jose Theodore is near the top of the list when it comes to facing the fewest percentage of his shots on the penalty kill. The Caps have been very good at avoiding shots while down 4-on-3 or 5-on-3. I guess that means Theodore hasn’t even been quite as “good” as his straight save percentage has looked..

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=393

If the Caps and the Pens met in the playoffs with the teams largely as-is, Pittsburgh would be predicted to win about 55% of the time.

“Both the Penguins and Capitals are known for their superstar-driven offenses, puck-moving defensemen and entertaining style. The Penguins are better at even-strength while the Capitals are better with the man advantage. The big difference will be in nets, where Fleury should be able to edge out Varlamov as he did last spring.”