[Ed. note: Capitals During Wartime is a series analyzing Washington's struggles before the 2012 trade deadline. We've discussed weakness at center, a poor road record, and negativity among fans so far.] 

In the latest edition of Capitals During Wartime, I mused about how and why we discuss the negative stuff going on with Capitals right now. Concluding, in short, that our foremost responsibility is to the Truth, and not just Good Feelings, I promised not to shy away from D.C.’s ongoing hockey bummers– but also not to drench that analysis in hyperbole.

This article is a statistical rundown of the Washington Capitals through 54 games for the purpose comparing the tenures of Bruce Boudreau and Dale Hunter head to head. But I will not be offering any commentary. My voice is limited to the selection of statistics below. Any conclusions you make or narratives you perceive are your own. I have included traditional stats, some advanced stats, and some individual curiosities that we’ve discussed recently on the site.

So obviously there’s some author bias present in the figures I chose to present. I chose stats that I thought would be illuminating or provocative in comparing the two. The stats are not uniformly flattering of either coach, and the actual efficacy of the coach upon many of these numbers should be debated. But I’m not going to do that for you– because that would be far too depressing.

No, basically this is like what the editor at the The New Frontiersman says to the intern in that last scene from Watchmen: I leave it entirely in your hands. 

What do the numbers tell you?

Thanks to Ian for suggestions and Neil Greenberg for planting the seed. Check out Arctic Ice Hockey’s item on Alex Ovechkin’s possession and conversion under the two coaches for a similar digestion. 

Joel Ward screens Ondrej Pavelec (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

The Washington Capitals summoned the Winnipeg Jets to end their residency at Verizon Center. It was supposed to be a pitched battle for alphabetical inferiority, another explosive game that Dale Hunter would compare to the playoffs. Instead we got a flurry of neutral-zone skirmishes and perfect moments by both goaltenders for 50 minutes and sheer insanity for 10.

The game’s first period was sleepy and scoreless, the second the same. But 10 minutes into the third, Alex Ovechkin sent a puck acutely netward during 5-on-4 play. Ovechkin hooked up Semin for another PP tally a few minutes later. Somebody on the other team scored, and we didn’t care. Then Dustin Byfuglien got a weird bounce to knot the game 12 seconds later.  Overtime came and went. Jets beat Caps 3-2 (Shootout)

 How tight was this game? Let’s ask Ferris.

• Zounds, this was not the playoff-type game we were promised. This was an often-sleepy game that we might’ve expected from two expansion teams meeting in October rather than rivals jostling for the division lead in February. Still, the Capitals tapped into bursts of intensity before kinda falling apart late in the third.
• But Tomas Vokoun was exemplary each time his team demanded it of him… mostly. When defensive mistakes and broken breakouts mounted up in the third period, Vokes was a sieve. Unless a sieve is a bad thing, in which case he was most definitely NOT a sieve.
• Listen. A sieve is a thing that lets some things through and other things not through. It’s an awful way to describe a bad goalie. It’s an awful to describe anything. See? Aren’t jokes so much funnier once they’re explained?!
• So Vokoun was perfect for like 117 minutes. And another 60 minutes a few games back. But then he gives up 2 goals in 12 seconds, one of which I could have stopped while sick with the flu. This is why we can’t have nice things.
• At least the Caps’ power play was stunning. The first opportunity was full of smart positioning with a couple of doozies on Pavelec’s net without result. Alex Ovechkin rang iron on that one, but scored on the next– quickly. Ovi hooked up his buddy Alex Semin for the game’s second PP goal. The Capitals probably have the best home power play in the NHL right now.
• But Dustin Byfuglien, what the hell, dude? A nonchalant dump-in from center ice takes a weird bounce and beats Vokoun. What a scam.
• Brooks Laich played another game, but was a tad bit ginger on his knee, which is apparently not 100%. Brooks recorded only 7:25 TOI, so perhaps Brooks would benefit from a game off? Put another way, wouldn’t another player benefit from a game on?
• No blame on BL21 for that sucky penalty. Brooks didn’t seem to know his stick had been broken just before he played the puck.
• The Capitals squeaked by with a possession win against a tea, whose offense has disintegrated since the new year. But more importantly: the Caps cracked 30 shots again– for the second time in three games (and second time in the last 27 games as well). Somebody call Angela Bassett, this team may finally be getting its groove back.
• The Jets committed two penalties in the last 20 seconds of overtime. Nothing you can do about that, I guess, but it feels like you can get away with murder that late in the game.

Joe B suit of the night

The Florida Panthers will probably win tonight as well, so the Caps lost some important ground in the playoff race. Looks like a virtual tie for the division lead, which due to the tiebreaker rule means we’re back in 9th place. Dammit.

The Caps let a good lead slip and their goalie’s shutout vanish. Unacceptable.

And despite all of the good signs, I recommend restraint on the team’s overall prospects until they can look as good at even strength as they do when a man up.

Off to MSG on Sunday to play the league’s best team, supposedly. And look: we didn’t even mention Knuble once!

Photo: Greg Fiume

The Washington Capitals reclaimed the Southeast Division lead with a thunderous victory over the Florida Panthers, who kind of sucked. It’s possible that the Panthers expected to play the doughy 2011-2012 Capitals. When the Caps came out all tumescent instead, the Cats were probably bewildered. Great game.

Mathieu Perreault scored on the games first shot, a plucky shut set up by Jason Chimera just 13 seconds into the game. Alex Ovechkin zipped past the Florida D to convert on the power play. Jason Chimera opened the second period with a shorthanded goal, his second of the year. 10 minutes later, Alex Ovechkin’s blazing fast wrister surprised Scott Clemmensen. No goals in the third period. Caps beat Cats 4-0.

Good win. Let’s rock out before we get to the bullets. Here’s a very appropriate new single by The Darkness, “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us.”

• Despite our panicked warbling, Brooks Laich is nigh-invulnerable. After taking what looked like a nasty hit to the knee on Sunday, BL21 dressed and played tonight– albeit with abbreviated ice time. If only Cal Ripken were at this game, we’d have two steely eyed iron men that can make even the straightest dude in straighttown go whoa.
• During this afternoon’s media time, Alex Ovechkin made a point of how much pressure is on him right now. His two goals and relentless pursuit of that hat trick put deed to those words.
• Betcha a shiny buffalo nickel that some schlub in the Canadian hockey media calls Ovi selfish for going after the hatty so hard.
• Tomas Vokoun was dialed in like a transcendental freak. He was sensing puck vibrations on the breeze or something, as he solved Kris Versteeg‘s line (which is awesome) at every turn. Vokes also got plenty of luck along the way; the Panthers missed a whopping 15 shots. This was Voke’s second shutout in the last three games. 42 saves.
• Jason Chimera‘s two shorthanded goals represent the entirety of the Capitals 4-on-5 conversions this season. Chimmer had two points, including a very smart pass to Matty Perreault on the game’s opening shift. He is good at hockey and deserves applause.
• #KnubleWatch: Mike Knuble recorded 0 shots in 10:07 of ice. Dude makes a little bit of money, but after going unused by Dale Hunter for so long has the Old Man finally given up the ghost?
• I know you guys don’t like him, but I think Jeff Schultz is awesome. Reasons: 1) he’s 8 feet tall; 2) Brittany spaniel named Riley; 3) nickname is Giraffe; 4) has played stolid defense since returning to active duty. You’re gonna say something about how he’s not physical enough, but if physicality were that important, Joel Rechlicz would be crashing in Ovi’s 10th guest bedroom right now. Tell me how I’m wrong.
• Matt Bradley didn’t fight anyone, so I didn’t have to cry tonight. Small victory on top of a big one.
• Feels weird to be on the right side of one of these blowouts, don’t it?

Joe B suit of the night

The Washington Capitals now lead the Southeast Division. They’re back in the playoff picture.

They fired shots like crazy in the first half– and didn’t really need to in the second half. Finishing up with only 24 shots is below what we wanted, but it’s understandable given the blowout up on the scoreboard.

Nothing’s gonna stop us now. Jets, you’re next.

The Washington Capitals returned to Verizon Center for a matinee match with the Boston Bruins, their second game in 24 hours. Disaster.

Milan Lucic scored after a bad read by Dennis Wideman gave him an opening. Brad Marchand made it 2-0 after Karl Alzner and John Carlson funneled the puck to their own crease. Marchand set up Tyler Seguin for the game’s third– and the second in which Dennis Wideman lost his man. A gorgeous 200-foot series culminated in a goal by Marcus Johansson (or Ward, whatever) and the end of Tim Thomas’s Sovereign Shutout. Peverly got the empty netter. Bruins beat Caps 4-1.

• 

  Photo credit: Ann Heisenfelt

  During the second period, Brooks Laich chased a puck behind the Boston net with Dennis Seidenberg in close pursuit. Seidenberg apparently connected with Laich’s left knee. Brooks tried to crawl to the bench but needed help to get down the tunnel. He tried his leg out during a TV timeout, but quickly retreated back to the locker room.

• Brooks Laich isn’t a center, but he plays one on TV. Already weak at center and without Nick Backstrom, the Caps are… well… totally f#@&ed without him. Knee injuries are finicky things. If his MCL or ACL is torn, we’re talking months not days. If that’s the case, hope for a Capitals’ postseason becomes a refuge for the naive and scurrilous.
• Or maybe it’s just a bruise, and Laich will play him on Tuesday. We’ll find out, but we can’t pretend like we’re not completely distraught over this. [UPDATE: Via Stephen Whyno at the Washington Times, Brooks Laich is on crutches. He says he is okay and that his exit was precautionary.]
• After nearly 7 minutes without any offense whatsoever, Alex Ovechkin unleashed his fury with 3 shots in the first period. That’s two more shots than he took during Saturday’s entire game (and more than 20 minutes TOI). His 7-shot game is his best since December 20th.
• Keith Aucoin had his moment in the sun during a second period breakaway. His shot was so far off the mark, he might’ve been aiming for a net in Hershey. After Laich got sidelined, Aucoin got a shift or two centering Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin, who are each 5 inches taller than he is.
• Dmitry Orlov took ANOTHER puck to the face. As you remember, a deflected puck bloodied his nose yesterday and required some tampon utilization. Poor baby might need some rhinoplasty.
• Blocked shots are a scam: when your count is high,  you’ve been playing in your own end too long. But Karl Alzner deserves the hard hat today for blocking a team-best-by-a-mile 10 shots. That’s one fewer than the entire Bruins team blocked. Alzner was partially at fault for Marchand’s goal, although his partner and quisling John Carlson was the one who directed the puck to the paint.
• Mike Knuble will break out of his funk eventually, but he’s gotta actually shoot first. 0 attempts tonight and only 6 shots in the last 7 games.
• The Capitals got more than thirty shots for just the fifth time since Dale Hunter took over– and for the first time since December 13.  The total was 36-30, meaning the Caps are on the right side of the shot differential for the first time in 14 games.

Brooks Laich’s status is unknown. Backstrom and Green are still on the shelf. But the worst thing for us to do right now is allow these injuries to mask the failure of this team– even when two of those three were healthy– to generate offense. We shouldn’t use the recent absence of Backstrom and now Laich as an excuse for Dale Hunter’s dysfunctional system. It shouldn’t continue once they return.

I know this looked like an awful game, and it really was. But there were bright spots that we must not ignore. Alex Ovechkin’s inspired-if-frustrated performance was his best since the new year, and the team mounted a  thunderous comeback attempt in the third.

The Capitals host the Florida Panthers at home on Tuesday and the Jets on Thursday. That’s two big division games. Even with today’s loss, they’re still within striking distance of the Southeast lead. You’ve seen how tough this schedule is down the stretch. They’ve gotta get points meow before it’s too late.

Crash the net. Save Brooksy.

Photo credit: Francois Lacasse

On Saturday afternoon The Washington Capitals got to feed at the trough of the league’s sideshow, the Montreal Canadiens. That doesn’t mean this game was zany and fun or anything, just kind of sad.

Dennis Wideman scored off the faceoff, firing a weird knuckle puck that dropped behind Peter Budaj. The Caps held Montreal scoreless through a sloppy second period. Matt Hendricks swept in a goal on a yawning net to make it 2-0. Alex Semin drew a penalty shot and slapped home the three-spot goal. Caps beat Habs 3-0.

• Tomas Vokoun recorded his 3rd shutout of the year, but…
• The Capitals were outshot by second worst team in the east. 29-23.
• Returned hero Alex Ovechkin mustered up only 1 shot (from 36 feet out). Ovechkin used to average more than 6 a game. Maybe he’s getting the rust off, or maybe this is the New Normal and our expectations are all out of wack. Every day a few more fans jump from the former group to the latter.
• Dmitry Orlov caught a puck with his nose in the first period. The disc jumped off his stick, broke his visor, and made him bleed his own blood! Orly seemed okay afterwards and even delivered some of his patented hefty hipchecks. (Video courtesy of VazorProduction)

• Wow, this game was light on content. Let’s talk about things that DIDN’T happen. No one fought Rene Bourque, despite all the pageviews and ad impressions on articles that said otherwise. Also not happening: Nick Backstrom playing hockey, the poor Swedish baby.
• Hey, it’s snowing! Is it snowing where you are? Okay, back to hockey.
• Brooks Laich took 23 faceoffs. That’s a 2 with a 3 after it. In second place, MJ90 took twelve– which kinda tells you a bit about who Hunter trusts and doesn’t trust to start shifts.
• Two penalty shots. You don’t see that often. Errr… ever. CSN tells us this was the first time in history the Caps got two regulation penalty shots. Troy Brouwer blew the first one right into Budaj’s armored five-hole, but Alex Semin went weapons free from like ten feet out– releasing a terrific slapshot that hit the top shelf. Beautiful.

Joe B suit of the night

This game was dreary. The Capitals will be fighting for their postseason life from here on out, but they played disinterested for the full hour. Montreal’s hopes for the playoffs are probably already dashed, and they still dominated possession. “Domination” should be considered a relative term as few shots came from under 30 feet out.

But a win is a win is a win is a win is a win is a win. And a road win for the Capitals is even more precious as it helps adjust their crummy record away from Verizon Center.

Verizon Center, by the way, is where the team is heading now. Thanks to the Canadiens’ sad trombone version of hockey, the Caps will be delicately wafted into tomorrow’s nooner by a breeze both favorable and favonian. But waiting for them in DC will be the Boston Bruins, who are super duper mondo walloptastic this year.

But we beat ‘em last time– even without Ovi. We’re gonna do it again.

Crash the net.

So much almost. (Photo credit: Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Whew, what a relief that the All-Star Weekend is over! We’re all so sick of watching haphazard, sloppy, firewagon hockey that turns over pucks and gives up chances every few seconds, it’s such a relief to get back to the responsible, disciplined team we all missed so much.

Hahaha! Let’s all have a good laugh at that one for a minute, and then to the recap. I am pleased to inform you that the curse of my recaps was broken tonight. Actual goals were scored.

Matt Hendricks opened the scoring with the ol’ Brooks-Laich-diving-poke-check-pass, fan-on-the-initial-and-then-wildly-backhand-it move. Classic. Teddy Purcell scored two shifts later on a feed from Steve Downie, who mysteriously hadn’t had his face punched in yet at this point. All Martin St. Louis had to do was skate past Hamrlik lying face-down on the ice to make it 2-1. Nate Thompson banged one in on a good cycle from Tampa in front of the net. Mathieu Perreault was in the right place at the right time to take credit for a hilarious own goal off Thompson’s stick. Good pressure from Laich forced a puck loose for Troy Brouwer, who put it in the back of the net. The game went to overtime, and Steven Stamkos scored on a defensive breakdown from John Carlson. Caps lose, 4-3.

• Tomas Vokoun’s head was extra shiny tonight. It was a sign. Like most of the team, he built and built as the night went on and peaked with an unreal save on Vinny Lecavalier in OT, reaching back on a sure thing to snag a puck out of the air even though he was feet away the moment before. Our goalie is a human Slinky. NBC broadcast team were too busy talking about Lecavalier to notice.
• The whole game was a bit of a mess, on both sides. All of these guys have been laying around on beaches for the whole weekend and eating their wives’ cooking. No more vacations for anyone. The Bolts sent the puck down. We sent it back. Carlson stopped our hearts multiple times. None of this looked much like actual hockey until about the third period.
• Alex Ovechkin was attending the game, and there were a few shots of him in the pressbox with Olaf Kolzig. Olie and Ovi. Now there’s a sitcom we could get behind.
• Person who had a little too much vacationing: Roman Hamrlik. He gave Steve Downie ten miles of space on the first Tampa goal, and then fell down, facedown, on the ice, for St. Louis to dance past him for the second goal. I was all set and ready to institute #Hamrlikdown, but on the replay minutes later we discovered that first look at the play was a bit mendacious. Class act Vinny Lecavalier actually kicked his skate out from under him.
• The refs were Bolts in disguise tonight, so this didn’t get called. Want to get even more angry about that second goal? It was offsides.
• Things that are not attractive: The PP without 19, 8, and 52. The Caps got a 4-minute power play in the second when Lady Byng candidate Steve Downie clipped Perreault with his stick and made him bleed. Most of this four minutes looked like the team having a seizure. The medics were all ready to rush onto the ice, but it was just the Caps trying to score on a power play. Please come back, somebody.
• For all the talk of bad trades and bad additions this summer–how about that Troy Brouwer, huh? He scored his 15th of the season tonight, and as the season’s gotten tougher, he’s just gotten better. What a hero.
• I’m sure you’re all wondering what happened to all the Joel Rechlicz hype. I am too. He played 1:49, all in the first period, and mysteriously didn’t throw a single punch. This wasn’t what we expected after Coach Hunter’s assertion that he was brought in because “he’s a big guy and he’s a physical guy. He’s physical and we’re on the road so we need a physical guy.” Why sign him and not use his scary, famous fists? Then again Steve Downie was dodgy earlier in the day about whether he’d even step up to the plate if Recker asked him. Draw your own conclusions.

Person Sitting Behind the Bench Shirt of the Night

We’re famous!

This is a stretch of games specifically created to teach the Caps how to overcome adversity. It is a good thing, because this is something that they really, really needed to know. That game got messy, and there were huge mistakes, but the Caps cared tonight. With the construction of this team being what it is right now, they are on the edge of disaster at any given moment, and yet they haven’t completely fallen over. Never a dull moment.

They worked hard tonight. They got physical. On the road. On the road you need physical guys. Physical.

WARNING: After not seeing this video in 10 years, we forgot how many blatant crotch shots there are. Consider yourself warned.

[Ed. note: this is the second article in our series about the Capitals' struggles leading up to the trade deadline. The first Capitals During Wartime post addressed the team's problems with the center position.]

At the end of All-Star Break, the Washington Capitals sit in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Southeast Division, but their prospects for the postseason are not secure. The Southeast has two challengers– the Florida Panthers (with whom the Caps are virtually tied) and the Winnipeg Jets. Plus, the Capitals have a tough schedule down the stretch– including some tough games on the road. When Neil Greenberg at the Washington Post looked at the Caps’ remaining schedule, he was not encouraged.

That’s because the road is where the Capitals have had most of their troubles this season. The team’s home record of 18-6-1 is fourth best in the league, but away they are just 8-13-2, a dismal 25th. One spectacularly bad road game in Buffalo on November 26th probably cost Coach Boudreau his job. The power play and penalty kill perform vastly better in Verizon Center than they do when away. With 18 away games remaining, the Capitals will have to do better on the road if they want to make the playoffs.

The article looks at the Caps’ troubles away from D.C. from several angles: possession, shooting, special teams, and Alex Ovechkin. And because it’s interesting, I’m comparing Bruce Boudreau and Dale Hunter too. Uh oh.

Shooting

The Capitals are in deep trouble when it comes to generating offense. They are currently 28th in cumulative shots on goal and will likely become sole occupants of the league’s basement within a month. But surprisingly, the shooting malaise isn’t a problem of the road versus home.

The Capitals average 26.4 shots at home and 28.2 away. Both totals are measly. And it only tells half the story.

I counted even-strength shots both for and against, both home and away, under Hunter and under Boudreau.

The unfortunate conclusion here is that the Capitals can’t keep pace with their opponents– wherever they play. Specifically, during Dale Hunter’s time the Capitals have seen their hometown advantage on offense vanish.

It’s worth mentioning that the Capitals win over 70% of games when they outshoot their opponents (2nd best in the league), but only 45% when they’re outshot (17th in the league). If they win 45% of their remaining games, they will not make the playoffs.

At even strength, the Capitals have outshot just one team at home since Dale Hunter took over. It was the Calgary Flames. On the road, they have fared slightly better– just not recently. Right after Hunter came to town, the Caps outshot the Panthers, the Senators, the Jets, the Avalanche, and the Devils. But none of those teams are offensive powerhouses, and the Caps have been dominated ever since.

But at least it’s not a road-home thing.

Possession

Okay, okay. Not everyone is on board with advanced stats. But while a team’s overall record does a good job of telling you their outcomes so far, Fenwick is better at predicting their future.

Fenwick is the total of a team’s even-strength shots, goals, misses– subtracted by the opposing team’s total. I’ll tell you right now that the team is  minus-87 overall, and that ain’t good.

The team isn’t keeping pace with their opponents either at home or away. Yeah, it’s worse on the road, but what’s more noticeable is how the team’s possession has declined under Coach Hunter. Boudreau left the Capitals in the black — although much of that success was earned during the 7-game winning streak that opened the season. Since Hunter took over, possession at home has been obliterated.

These Fenwick scores disregard the game’s score. To be fair, the Caps are a bit stronger when the score is close (16th), but their dramatic drop-offs in possession when ahead or behind by at least two points exceeds other teams in the league (29th and 27th, respectively).

Power Play

The Capitals power play is ranked 13th overall with an 18.5% conversion rate. That middle-of-the-pack stat is hiding the truth of the matter, because this team is night-and-day depending on where they play.

The Capitals have a terrific power play in Chinatown, hitting the net almost a quarter of the time. But once they leave those friendly confines, the man-advantage falls off a cliff.

The good news is that the power play has gotten better in both circumstances under Coach Hunter. Not good enough, clearly, but progress is being made.

Penalty Kill

Same story. The Capitals are ranked 23rd with a dreary kill rate of 80.8% overall. But that’s an average of two disparate PK units.

The Caps are in the bottom five of special teams while on the road. Their home penalty kill is sterling — and has improved under Hunter, but they’re dragged down by a road unit that fails about once every four tries. There is no way to sugarcoat how bad the Caps are on the road when a man down, but maybe they could mitigate the problem by committing fewer penalties while away; they’re currently 16th in that stat.

Alex Ovechkin

And here’s the most curious thing. Alex Ovechkin, who by most accounts is in decline, seems to be slumping at home most of all. Just 6 of his 20 goals have come at Verizon Center.

Here are Alex’s average goals per game, shots per game, and shooting percentage.

Ovechkin is shooting 7.4% at home. A good deal of that is due to his scoring only one goal on 34 shots over 11 games under Boudreau. But even under Hunter, Ovechkin’s 10.6% is under his career average. It’s worth mentioning that Ovechkin has 9 more assists at home than he does on the road. Still, there is room for growth.

On the road, Ovechkin is playing more like his old self. He’s firing more shots (although not nearly enough for a former league leader), and he’s getting luckier with them. His 15.6% road shooting percentage isn’t Stamkos-ian, but it’s still pretty awesome.

Ovechkin has got to shoot more in both circumstances. Even if Ovi were to shoot his road average of 3.91 times per game, he’d still finish the season with the lowest shot total of his career. We really need him firing 5 or more on the net every single game.

And like the honey badger before him, Alex Ovechkin does not give a hoot about who his coach is. His scoring drought at home snapped under Hunter, but his road performance has been identical. If Boudreau was fired because he “lost” Alex Ovechkin, Hunter hasn’t effected a change in the captain.

Conclusions

The Capitals need to shoot more. Doesn’t matter if they’re at home or away, they just need to fire more pucks at the net. They’re in immediate danger of becoming the most harmless team in the NHL. At home under Coach Hunter, the team has lost its offensive passion. The road is hardly better, and the nadir was reached on January 18th when the Caps fired just 10 even-strength shots in Montreal. That they somehow won that game is  heartwarming, dumbfounding, and seductive. No team can sustain success without more offense.

The home power-play unit is elite, but the away power-play unit is awful. The penalty kill is the same, but there have been improvements under Dale Hunter. In the tight games that the new coach says he is keen to play, these goals will often be the margin of victory or defeat. And if the Caps can’t get their road PK unit crackling, they need to commit fewer penalties. We’re looking at you, Bad Sasha.

Beyond the road-versus-home stuff, there is a compelling but uncomfortable conclusion we have to reach: the Washington Capitals have gotten worse under Dale Hunter. His modest improvements on special teams have been offset by deflated by even-strength performance. This team stunned the NHL two years ago with the best offense since Detroit in ’06, but now they’re headed for dead last in shots on goal. If firing Boudreau was supposed to turn this team around quickly, it failed. If it is supposed to improve the team in the long term, the trend lines are heading in the wrong direction.

When we previewed the Caps schedule, we told you to put a big circle around the ides of March. There are three road games in four nights– and they’re against Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia– three of the league’s best teams. Those three games will come after the trade deadline, which is George McPhee‘s last chance to make a course correction for a wayward season. If the Caps can prove themselves in those games, we’ll know that this team is still capable of great things.

In the meantime, we need to figure out why it is that a talented team can have such trouble away from their home arena. Is it the off-ice amenities– like a short commute and mama’s home-cooking–  that make the difference? Could it be that the Caps are more acclimated to the notoriously harsh and groin-sundering ice conditions at Verizon Center? Is it the customary unleashing of fury that makes the Caps turn up the heat  or maybe the 5 or 6 times they play Pantera’s “Walk” over the PA every single game? Is it The Horn Guy? Is it Goat? Is it Wes?

I have no earthly idea, but I’d like to hear your opinion.

Why do the Caps struggle on the road? How can they fix it?

I would have liked to embed this Tenacious D video here, but there are like 20 billion naughty words in it. So with my stern NSFW warning, feel free to check it out. All data from NHL and Behind the Net. If you’d like to see my compiled dataset, let me know. And finally, this:

Few jobs in the NHL suck more than Brendan Shanahan‘s. As the guy in charge of player safety, Shanahan has presided over 26 suspensions so far this season. Shanahan began publishing videos to document each infraction and provide transparency to a process that had been considered arbitrary in previous years.

I didn’t pay too much attention to supplemental discipline until this week, when Alex Ovechkin earned a three-game suspension for charging Zbynek Michalek. Ovechkin’s was the 10th three-game suspension of the year. With a big enough sample for comparison and Shanahan’s explanation for each, we’re finally able to peer into the underlying logic– and fairness– behind these rulings.

Ideally, all illegal hits can be placed on a spectrum from insignificant and benign to profound and malicious. Many factors would determine each hit’s location on that spectrum: the logistical mechanics of the hit, the context of the game, the language of the rule that governs it, the history of the players involved, the on-ice ruling, and (maybe) any ensuing injury.

In a perfect world, the resultant discipline (either fine, suspension, or both) would correlate to the severity of the infraction; more serious violations yield longer suspensions and bigger fines.

Let’s look at similar hits and compare them and their punishments.

Jan 22: Alex Ovechkin, Charging, 3 Games

Alex Ovechkin launches himself into the air to hit Zbynek Michalek, who is not in a vulnerable position and has just passed the puck. Ovechkin does not target the head, but he does hit it. Ovechkin is not a repeat offender by the definition of the CBA, but has a 22-month-old boarding  infraction and a 26-month-old kneeing infraction. Michalek does not appear injured and remains in the game.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player left his feet
• Contact to the head, unintentional
• No call on the play
• No injury on the play
• Not a repeat offender, but has a history of on-ice hits

In the suspension video, Brendan Shanahan says that once he went airborne, Ovechkin was responsible for any contact to Michalek’s head– even if that wasn’t the principle point of contact. That seems like a reasonable decision for accountability, and I won’t refute it.

Shanahan says that his decision took into consideration both of Alex Ovechkin’s fines and suspensions– even though they both are outside of the 18-month window that the CBA defines for “repeat offender” status. Shanahan also notes that both of those prior infractions were due to physicality. More on this later.

When I commented on the hit and the possibility disciple on the night of the hit, I wrote that Michalek was falling before the hit– leading to the contact with his head– and I underestimated the apparent deliberation behind Ovechkin launching himself into the hit. I was wrong. The angle that Shanahan uses in his video is illuminating. It certainly justifies some amount of discipline, and it raises other questions that we’re not really equipped to answer: what factors inform the decision for suspension and to what degree?

The best clues we have are the “key point” bullets that Shanahan delivers in his videos– an elemental deconstruction of each hit. If the system is truly fair, we should be able to reverse engineer each hit and suspension to discover a rubric for punishment. If we can’t divine their logic, then we have revealed the new discipline administration is just as arbitrary as its predecessor– and they’re just using cool videos and bullet points as a obfuscatory firewall.

Of the 10 three-game suspensions this season*, only two were similar to Ovechkin’s. Those hits were Mark Fistric charging on December 7 and Deryk Engelland‘s flying elbow on December 22.

Let’s look at each.

Dec 7: Mark Fistric, Charging, 3 Games

Fistric leaves his skates, launching himself to hit New York’s Nino Neiderreiter, who has just received a pass along the boards at center ice. Fistric targets and hits the head with a full-body check. Neiderreiter suffers a concussion and misses the rest of the game and beyond. No penalty is assessed. Fistric is not a repeat offender, but had been fined for on-ice violence 23 months earlier.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player left his feet
• Targeted the head
• No call on the play
• Concussion on the play
• Not a repeat offender, but has a history of on-ice mayhem

Neiderreiter missed five games due to his concussion.

Dec 22: Deryk Engelland, Elbowing, 3 Games

Engelland approaches Chicago’s Marcus Kruger, who has the puck entering the Pittsburgh zone. Engelland delivers a check to the head and leaves his skates upon the hit. Engelland is not penalized for the check. Kruger plays some of the game’s remainder and misses the next game. Engelland has no history of supplemental discipline.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player leaves his feet upon impact
• Targeted the head
• No call on the play
• Concussion on the play
• Not a repeat offender, clean record

Kruger missed one game due to his concussion.

Comparison

All three hits have factors in common that could explain the equal punishment. They each could have been legal hockey plays, until the violating players leave their skates or target their opponent’s head. No  penalties were called on any of these hits. None of these players are considered repeat offenders by the CBA.

But there are stark differences as well. Ovechkin’s history of on-ice collision is explicitly mentioned as a factor in judgment. Fistric’s history of on-ice mayhem is mentioned but dismissed for not being germane.

Both Fistric and Engelland overtly target the heads of their opponents. The contact between Ovechkin and Michalek began as shoulder-to-shoulder. Again, the stated policy is that an airborne players is responsible for a hit to the head even if the head was not a target. But intent should not be assumed.

Finally, Fistric and Engelland cause concussions in their victims. 5 man-games were lost to Fistric’s hit; 1 to Engelland’s. No time was lost to the Ovechkin hit.

Perhaps Shanahan considered Kruger’s and Neiderreiter’s injuries as counterbalance to Ovechkin’s history– so he handed down the same sentence for all three. But that explanation isn’t credible, as Ovechkin’s history is beyond the window that the CBA allows for consideration. Unless Shanahan is ignoring the definition of repeat offender and making his judgments based on personality, which is what I assert he is doing.

I’d argue that the deliberation apparent in Fistric’s and Engelland’s hits was malicious and that the outcome of those hits was far greater than that of Ovechkin’s hit. Put another way– Fistric and Engelland targeted players’ heads and injured them; Alex Ovechkin targeted a player’s shoulder and did not injure him. Two were malicious; the other was reckless.

But they received the same penalty. Why?

Was Ovechkin suspended disproportionately because he is perceived — perhaps accurately– as being stubborn and ignorant to the danger of his play? Is the league fearful of him seriously injuring another player in the future, and are they using the suspension to modify his behavior? Is Ovechkin punished more aggressively because he is a star? Or (if you’re wearing a tin-foil hat) is Ovechkin persecuted because he is not North American?

Some of those questions are unfair, but they will all linger until personal interpretation is removed from the decision-making process for punishment.

Just as on-ice officials are given leeway to interpret the game and inject their own narrative, so too has Brendan Shanahan been allowed to punish players based on whim– rather than the letter of the law. And just as officials are routinely criticized for bias (“Typical Montreal”) and sometimes accused of corruption, so too will Brendan Shanahan until true transparency is granted.

That means a specific formula for punishment– open to the public. Five people different in five rooms can look at an incident, apply the formula, and reach the same result: Left skates + targeted head + concussion = 3 games. Left skates + targeted shoulder, hit head + history of hits = 3 games. Whatever.

But that’s not going to happen. And until then, bromides like “boys will be boys” and “let the boys play” will mask the biases that hockey authorities are not willing or able to confront.

Other Three-Game Suspensions

Jan 16: Dane Byers, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Jan 9: Jean-Francois Jacques, Elbowing, 3 Games

Jan 1: Ian Cole, Elbowing, 3 Games

Nov 11: Max Pacioretty, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Nov 25: Andre Deveaux, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Nov 16: Chris Stewart, Hit From Behind, 3 Games

Additional research by Ian Oland.

* We have excluded preseason suspensions from our analysis because losing a preseason game is considered less punitive than missing a regular-season game.

Screengrab via @CarrottBazooka

Since Alex Ovechkin has opted out of the All-Star Weekend (and has better things to do anyway), Dennis Wideman is now Washington’s lone representative in Ottawa. While Wideman is perhaps slightly less likely to don a hat and sunglasses and do trick shots, he’s a Capital, so we love him all the same. We’ll be covering Wideman’s foray into the glamorous life of an All-Star, so check back for updates, because let’s face it, you’re already bored without hockey.

Dennis Wideman was picked in the 15th round with the second-to-last pick that could be used on a defenseman, before only Canucks defenseman Alexander Edler. This means that we can get hipster now if we want and call him underrated. We knew Dennis Wideman when he wasn’t cool. Logan Couture was picked last overall and won a brand new caaaaarrrrr! Somehow it just wasn’t the same without Ovechkin there laughing and taking pictures.

Best Moments

• Pavel Datsyuk went first overall to Team Chara. Erik Karlsson got picked first for Team Alfredsson because he babysits Alfie’s kids, apparently.
• Alfie got confused about what round it was multiple times, leading to excellent cutaways of him asking everyone around him.
• Do the Leafs suck? I feel unsure. I wish that someone would have clarified this.

• Carey Price, clearly not expecting to be picked by a Bruin and a Leaf, had a mouthful of water when he was picked by Team Chara, and spent a good thirty seconds remembering how to swallow. It wasn’t an actual spit-take, but it was close.
• James Duthie somehow talked to Tim Thomas about the White House scandal without ever once actually mentioning what happened. Because, you know, he wouldn’t want to distract from the event at hand.

Best Quotes

• Joffrey Lupul on being booed every time he took the podium: “I like it. I don’t want to be cheered in Ottawa anyway.”
• Jason Spezza: “I owe Malkin 20 bucks. I told him he’d get picked before me.”
• Carey Price: “Is Z going for offense or defense? Wait remember, there’s no defense.”
• Tonight in unintentional rhymes: “Our third pick…Jonathan Quick.”
• Jarome Iginla to Patrick Kane: “Hey, what’s up man?” Kane: “Yeah, you too.”

via penslove.tumblr.com

• Chara to Tyler Seguin after making him wait till the second-to-last round: “Hug it out?”
• Cody Hodgson on ending up on Team Chara “It wasn’t my choice.” Pained face.
• Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson discussing Sedin mythology: “I wonder if him and his brother will have any chemistry in the game?” “Doubtful.” “Aliens.” “They know where to pass the puck without even talking. It’s insane.”
• Alfredsson on Marion Gaborik being picked by Team Chara: “We were hoping Gaborik would be left, but Hank said you can’t score on him anyway.”

Important Questions

• Do they know who each team is going to draft beforehand, or do they just have two of each sweater for everyone?
• Who is most desperately in need of a haircut: Letang, Stamkos, or Hartnell? Discuss.
• What do you call a person who lives in Ottawa? Is it Ottawan? Ottawaian? Ottauan?

Monday night, Brendan Shanahan suspended Alex Ovechkin three games for his hit on Penguins defenseman Zbynek Michalek. Tuesday morning, George McPhee announced that Ovi would be pulling out of the All-Star Game and its festivities in Ottawa. “Because he’s a suspended player, he doesn’t feel like he deserves to be there, so he’s not going to go,” McPhee told the gathered media. “He doesn’t want to be a distraction to the event.”

Fair enough. Yet Ovi’s decision to skip All-Star weekend has been met with criticism from some and anger by others. St. Louis Blues winger Andy McDonald tweeted a “a classless move by Ovi ‘opting’ out of the NHL Allstar Game.” What they don’t seem to realize is that Ovechkin has lots of other important things to be doing with his time. First things first, shaving-cream pie Mathieu Perreault.

It’ll be twelve days between when Ovechkin was suspended and when we next see him on the ice, so in the meantime, here are a few things we think he might be up to.

Record his First Solo Rap Album

Featuring the smash hit “Nuthin’ But a Red Light Thang”

Get a New Pet

“Ghera gon’ love this.”

Play Basketball with the Washington Wizards

… and get Flip Saunders fired again.

Go Bird-watching

I saw it! I swear Gah!

Take his Girlfriend, Maria Kirilenko, to Disneyland

And apparently get some new tattoos.

Go to Dinner at the White House

He doesn’t want to be a distraction to this dinner.

Catch Up on “Downton Abbey”

so sick))))

Learn to Eat His Vegetables

Russian machine needs its vitamin B and E!

Start a New Fashion Trend

“I call it: pants on top of pants on top of PANTS.”

Learn to Knit

“Gon’ stich new number hat for Sasha!”

Join the Red Rockers

C-H-A-R-G-I-N-G!

While Shirtless, Present Signed Pucks to Chad Kroeger of Nickelback

Luckily, Chad Kroeger already has a song about being sad about a photograph.

Learn to Drive Safer

“Look, Ted!! No Hands!!”

Play in a Ball Pit

Shortly after this Ovechkin was suspended from the ball pit for three days.

Feed the Ducks

Bruce, is that you?

Additional photoshopping and hilarity by Ian Oland. The kangaroo is all his fault.