AP Photo/Ted Richardson

[Doug Johnson of the PuckBuddys is back! And he has this preview. Yet another preview. Which, for the record, he doesn't need to do, he just chooses to do. He could stop at any time. Really. Just this one more. Go be co-dependent with him here.]

Morning Skate: Well fiddle-dee-dee. No sooner do we air out the Rangers’ stank from Verizon than the hillbillies from Hooterville return, bringing with them an undiscovered country of smell. Yes y’all, the Carolina Hurricanes are blowing back in, bringing with them their corn-pone, possum caps, crystal meth and Alex Semin, in something like that order.

Of course “stank” is something we all got a heapin’ helpin’ of this weekend. Must we really bring it up again – the juvenile penalties, the evaporating puck-management skills, John Tortorella’s stupid fat face? Apparently, yes.

Just what is happening in hockeyville? What is at the root of this existential struggle? I was contemplating this conundrum when a colleague at work asked me about the loud whooshing in the vent above my desk. “Is it blowing or sucking?” he asked.

Exactly.

Perhaps it’s just that the Capitals suck. Inconsistent play between and even within games, a superstar Captain who fans more than he shoots, and lines that seem more improvised than a John Cassavetes movie (ha!). Could it be that the 2013 incarnation of the Caps really aren’t that good across the board, and we should just focus on the 2014 rebuild?

Or maybe it’s blow. Yes, let’s stick with that one for a moment. As in blowing leads, blowing shots, and blowing opportunities, leading to the Caps faithful blowing chunks. I’m sure there’s an emoticon the kidz have come up with for that, but I can’t care.

Do you see the difference? Suck is what you are; blow is what you do. This dazzling insight, arrived at after at least, oh, a minute of thought, jibes with Peter’s ambitious analysis, though with much less of the word stuff and more of the… well I just don’t know how to finish that sentence. Ergo: the Capitals blow. And this is good news, because blow is fixable. Suck is forever.

The Puck Drop: Which, what a coincidence, brings us to Carolina. From its earliest days as South Carolina’s ugly little sister, North Carolina has remained one of the best reminders of why we might have been better to just walk away from that whole Civil War thing and leave good enough alone.

You would be hard pressed to find a place as simultaneously dull and ugly as North Carolina. Trust me on this: after spending just one week in Charlotte for the Democratic National Convention last year, it is one of the few spots on Earth that a tropical storm would improve.

Craig did this. The minx.

Sadly, the same cannot be said of the Hurricanes, née the Hartford Whalers, now residing in that pop-up book of a city, Raleigh. At 7-3 in the last ten games, they now seem to be pulling it together after a slow start, much like another team had been looking of late.

Of course, one of those losses was from us, here at home, when seemingly nobody came ready to play except Cam Ward, who — it must be noted– is performing better than any of our three current goalies and is infuriatingly cute. I would offer up performance comparisons here, but seeing as at least a few Hurricanes fans will have this read to them and mathematics is still legally considered “a demonye vice” in Carolina.

The Canes are simply playing better, and better as a team, than the Capitals right now. As are most teams in the Eastern Conference. And in other news, the Earth is still revolving around the sun. Moving on…

The Hot And The Not:

• Not – Missing, one Manimal; Answers to Troy. Early in the season, Troy Brouwer was performing exactly like we expected, tearing it up and generally playing like a robo-wolf wearing jetpacks and a katana. That said, he’s been weaker of late, adding just one goal in the last five despite logging serious ice time. We think we know the reason: Troy’s drought began at the same time he started started gassing it up about Alex Semin’s work ethic, right before our last game hosting the Canes. Coincidence, or something else, hmmm?! Did Sasha put the Evil Eye kabong on Troy? Is he so wracked with guilt about trash-talking a good player that he can’t perform? Am I just completely making crap up just for one more line of copy? I think you know the answer.
• Hot – The Sasha Line. Ugh, you know like when you break up, and you’re feeling pretty good about the whole thing, and a year later you run into each other on the street, and your hair is awful and your breath reeks and you’re wearing your “I just give up” stained sweats while they’ve lost 10 pounds and had their teeth whitened and smell like fresh peaches and are all like “Excuse me? Oh…oh Hi! Well just look at you!”? [ED: YOU'RE OVER-SHARING AGAIN]. That’s sorta what welcoming back Alex Semin once more feels like. 1/3 of the Canes top line, Sasha is scoaring, and even more assisting fellow line mates Eric Staal and the adorably named Jiri Tlusty do the same. We’ve faced some pretty good lines lately — see Pens and Islanders — but this may just be the best of them.
• Not -Ref You Cray!Is it possible that the NHL zebras have a thing against the Washington Capitals and are calling penalties on what other teams get away with? Hmmph. More possible is that some of the refs have their knickers knotted over a few Capitals players in particular, and I would rate it almost probable that one of those players is Alex Ovechkin. Let’s say that’s so, because why not. Then what? Do we think jawing the ref is really going to help him see the error of his ways? That puerile fan taunts help clear their souls? The PuckBuddys totally get the frustration, even letting fly with a few choice comments directed their way from time to time (read after three beers.) Boo hoo not fair fap fap, now just accept it and move on please.
• Hot – O Hai Nicky! We have a saying around our house. “You’re DUE, Nicky!” I guess it’s less a saying and more something we shriek at the TV. Anyway, Nicklas Backstrom remains one of the best all-around assets in the Capitals toolbox. Although not as good as last year, he’s good on the dot for us, he’s even better at landing assists, and was brilliant against Boston. Still, we’ve only seen 3 goals from him this season, way below where he wants to be and where we need him to be. It’s quite likely this is uninformed drivel, but Backstrom at 25 seems to be one of the most even-keeled guys in red out there.
• Not – Under Pressure. Even the Ecuadorian gas rats (look it up!) at the National Zoo can tell you that these next two games – Canes at home, Canes away – may well decide our playoff picture. Not so much in a point-counting way, although I’m told that’s still the way they do it. No, think spirit and energy. If this team believes they will defeat the Canes, and are able to do that, it’s going to be an enormous boost in esteem and confidence for this squad.
• Hot – Steve gOAleksy. What can be said about this miracle from Michigan hasn’t already been said? But let’s just bathe, for a moment, in the wonder that – at the moment – is Steven Oleksy.   …   There, bathed yet? Feelin’ fine? Because that is exactly what we need right now. Everyone feeling fine.

The Late Line: So here it is. Boston had it all over the Caps on paper, and what a thing of beauty that was. The Islanders should have been something approaching doable, until we were the ones that got did on. If I worked the book in Vegas, I wouldn’t be working the book anymore in Vegas. But be bold! Chaos is a ladder! And other Game of Thrones quotes I’m supposed to know!

Caps 3, Canes 2.

Sue me if I’m wrong. Or take it up with my bookie.

[Ed. note:Today, the latest member of the PuckBuddys team hits the ice. Jason Rogers currently hangs his hat in Virginia, has studied in Paris and worked in China (always one step ahead of Interpol). But where ever he is in the world he’s a Caps fan through and through. He knows the game and we're not holding that against him. Jason currently sports #8 – and the “C” – playing center for the Manassas Sperm Whales. Srsly. Give him a follow on twitter.]

Morning Skate: Well, Saturday’s game against the Devils sure was fun to watch, no? Alex Ovechkin bowled a Magician, and the whole team clearly ate their morning Oates with breakfast. It was a real big-boy win against the defending Eastern Conference champions for this Caps team, and like a really nice yard with an unmarked septic field, hopefully something they can build on. Today, Southeast Division rival Carolina Hurricanes blow into town like a hot, smelly belch from the South. I hope they brought illegal fireworks.

The unbearable lightness of being Sasha

The Puck Drop: There are a couple big plot points to this match-up for the Caps. The first, of course, is the Return of Sasha. Yes, the man who once shared a banner with Voldemort is coming back to Verizon. If I had to guess how Semin feels about this, I would play the averages and assume he doesn’t care.

But I predict the Verizon faithful are going to let him have it, with a few scattered apologists wailing, “Guys, but that wrister!” He’s been an alright pickup for the Hurricanes with three goals on the season. Or, differently, as many as Ovechkin had in his last game. And speaking of Ovechkin, my God, we might get to see Ovi absolutely train track Sasha in the open ice. Think about that, and salivate over it. I need to go change.

The second big plot point is that the Caps have a chance to take two more points off of a division rival’s plate and put it onto theirs. As Jeff Kleiman said on Twitter: “The Southeast Division has really ‘just become a dumpster fire’.” With no teams over .500 and the winner of the division likely to have fewer points than the eventual eighth seed, there’s not a reason in the world the Capitals shouldn’t rise from this trash pile like Rocky over the city of Philadelphia. If they keep playing like Saturday, we could well have a new banner to hang from the rafters at Verizon, even if we have to shake the coffee grounds and band-aid wrappers off it first.

So that’s about where we’re at, which brings me to where we’re going next, and a segment I call:

Liable to Libel: A Baker’s Dozen Lies About Today’s Opponent

• The Hurricanes have petitioned the NHL for permission to change their name twice: once to the Katrinas in 2005, and once to the Sandies in 2012. Let’s see what 2013 brings.
• Eric and Jordan Staal learned to possess the puck so well by being made to fight over scraps of meat tossed to them by their parents, unable to ween all 37 of their hockey-playing children.
• North Carolina ranks first in the US in occurrences of adorable children’s ice cream scoops falling off their cones and making them cry.
• @AlexSemin has blocked @tbrouwer20
• Raleigh, North Carolina was originally called Staalopolis, named for the dinosaur of the same name. It’s true.
  

  The Staal Family

• If you rearrange the letters in Cam Ward’s name, it spells Raw Clams.
• Alex Semin is actually trying really, really hard, guys.
• Passersby often stop the Carolina Hurricanes on the street and say, “Boy, it’s obvious you’ve won a Stanley Cup.”
• Seriously, Alex Semin wants this more than anybody.
• When approached by the league about the possibility of Raleigh hosting an NHL franchise, Mayor Tom Fetzer reportedly began foaming at the mouth and firing a pistol wildly into the air like Yosemite Sam.
• Jussi Jokinen prefers for his first name to be pronounced, “Juicy.”
• The entire cast of Les Mis were all Staals and performed under pseudonyms.
• South Carolina is really grateful the team chose to call themselves “Carolina,” and is totally gonna make it up to North Carolina.

Hot And Hotter: Here’s who and what I’ll be keeping an eye on in tonight’s game at the SIM Card:

1. Ain’t Eight Great? - Much like Hansel, Ovi is burning hot right now. And in DC we’re basking in this fairweather praise like cool whip from Katy Perry’s brassiere. In the home-and-still-home against the Devils, OBestkin played like a Russian with a fire lit under him, with a meteoric ‘See what I did there?’ rise that many would tell you was long in coming. In addition to finishing his checks with gusto and roaring into the zone on breakouts, finally – finally – his buckets and buckets of shots started to hit pay dirt. Whether playing the 1812 Overture from the top of the circle, or creating room for himself with a little dink-and-dunk puck play, the Russian Machine seems to be revving up. Woe unto the rest of the league if he is.
2. The Ebb and Flow of John Carlson - Once hailed by the Screen Actors Guild as the world’s greatest living actor, my jersey-sake #74 has been a sore subject for me this season. J.C. Superstar was once the roll bar on our Miata, keeping us secure when the cycle got rolling on us, pinning us to the boards sharply when we lost our way, and other shallowly extended metaphors. He made smart, lockdown plays in his own end, and was never the weak link going the other way on the rush. Early this season, Spike Strip was blowing tires nightly and leaving Holtby on islands like his name was Tattoo (children, go look it up.) Lockouts are tough on young players to whom acclaim has come quickly. Big things are expected from you, and accomplishment is no longer a pleasant surprise. It’s demanded from you, and Captain America now seems to be lifting himself up off the mat and coming out swinging. He’s keeping pucks in the zone, working the wheelhouse on the power play like Steamboat Willie, and winning footraces to the puck. Also, I bet if you stuck a fork into his hair, it would stand straight up. And that’s gross, but I respect it. [Ed note: Johnny cut his hair!]
3. “Now I ain’t sayin’ he a goaltender, but he ain’t messin’ with…” We’ve been a hot mess between the pipes, like the area rug of a crack house. We have a list of old boyfriends like an experimental trip through Europe: Cristobal, Jose, Semyon, Michal. But Holtby could be our guy; a just-inked, two-year deal underscores that. We all fell in love with Braden during last year’s playoff series against the Bruins when he stared down that little twerp Rich Peverley like a consummate boss and stood on his head so long he got CTE. Yes, Braden Holtby will give up goals if you don’t play defense in front of him. Just like that other guy – what’s his name? - Oh, everyone. But boy, if you give this kid a a demi-snowball’s chance to make a stop, 9.31 times out of 10 he makes the save over the last four games. He’s making quick decisions with the pads and ought to take that glove with him over to Nats spring training. We’ve had our share of streaky goalies, but Holtby could be our Windex man. He’s currently starting in the most consecutive games of his career, and we may be able to keep doing so thanks to the shortened season. I hope that in so doing, he can find his groove and keep doing his weird, Jedi thing.

And with that, I leave you to eagerly await the drop of the puck at 7pm tonight at Verizon. Let’s go get ‘em, boys.

I feel like I’ve seen this person before… (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

Fans enter Verizon Center before the season-opener. (Photo credit: Chris Gordon)

One hundred fifty-seven days. That’s a long summer for Caps fans. And Saturday night at 7:09 P.M. Eastern Time when six ounces of vulcanized rubber tumbled toward the ice sheet it was finally over.

“The atmosphere was great,” Alex Ovechkin told reporters after the game. “The fans push us forward all the time. It’s nice to play at home, especially the first game. I know everybody was missing hockey here so it’s nice to come back.”

The trademarks of Caps hockey were all there last night: Sam Wolk pursed his lips to his horn and let lout three loud blasts at the drop of the puck; Wes Johnson bellowed out the name of Alexander Semin (heavy on the “r”) after Washington lit the lamp for the first time this season on Sasha’s tally; William Stilwell, better known as the Goat, let out a thunderous roar of “Let’s Go Caps!” as he stomped the metal beneath his feet when shown on the big screen in the second period.

There have been pre-season games (eight of them to be exact) and practices — a convention too. But nothing lives up to games that actually matter — or maybe do not matter depending on how you look at it. And Caps fans were ready. 18,506 of them packed Verizon Center, good for a sellout crowd at 100.6 percent of capacity, a number that makes sense if you don’t think about it.

“I’m super excited that they’re back,” Caps fan Jenn McAdoo said. “I felt last year they were trying to stay angry. Let’s just hope this year they stay in the playoffs.”

The off-season, which like all recent ones has begun much too early for the Caps’ liking, was one of change. Former playoff stud and ceiling enthusiast Semyon Varlamov was shipped to Denver, though he probably should do some stretching before hitting the slopes in Colorado. Eric Fehr, too, now plays for another team. Same goes for Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, Jason Arnott, Scott Hannan, and Marco Sturm (who was in D.C. for about half has much time as it will take you to read this post). But the team now boasts a new starting netminder — actually, that part might be complicated — in Tomas Vokoun. The D-corps have also received a veteran boost thanks to the acquisition of Roman Hamrlik. The forwards now feature the Hebrew Hammer Jeff Halpern along with former Moose Jaw Warrior Troy Brouwer and former Owen Sound Plater Joel Ward (I love junior hockey). And for fans before 2009 (those exist?), fan favorite Olie Kolzig is also back as a coach.

But enough about the summer. Now it’s finally time for hockey. Glorious hockey.

“I’m really excited for the season to be back because the off-season sucks,” said Caps fan Amanda Hill.

“I have to admit, at the beginning of last year I was a little blasé,” the Goat said. “It was really kind of the status quo team and there was no real reason to think anything had changed. … Starting on July 1st I just felt, ‘This is it; this is a regular season to be excited about because we could actually see a different team out there.’”

“There’re a lot of guys on the Caps that have something to prove and I’m looking forward to seeing them prove it,” he continued.

Washington plans do just that. And though they may be professionals, the team can still get a case of the butterflies.

Said Head Coach Bruce Boudreau: “The crowd’s into it, there are a lot of new guys. Nerves were there. It’s like the first day on the job and going into the office — you’re nervous. Whether you’re a 20-year veteran on the job or just brand new.”

Photo credit: Greg Fiume

The hard part is over. Mathieu Perreault led the Capitals with five points in four preseason games and snatched the final roster spot from favorites Cody Eakin and Mattias Sjogren.

Last season he showed the ability to drive puck possession, finishing with the fourth best Corsi relative to the competition on the team, behind only Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin.

Consistency, however, was a bigger issue. He earned all fourteen of his points in just nine of his 35 games played and wasn’t able to claim a center spot that was up for grabs.

But it’s a new year, and with Boudreau giving Matty P some time up top with Ovechkin and Troy Brouwer– plus hinting he may center the second line, it’s now time to turn our attention to what we can expect from him in his third NHL season.

Using Perreault’s NHL stats to match him with players who had comparable production at the same age, we can then use the development of those peers to generate a projection for 2011-12. Stats are normalized to the 2010-11 season, so they can be compared on a level playing field despite being in different eras.

Although he is frequently compared to Tampa Bay Lightning forward Martin St. Louis because of his size, Perreault’s statistical peer group includes Joel Lundqvist, Milan Kraft, Patrick Thoresen, and even Patrick Sharp, among others. As you can see, the group is a decent match for Perreault’s sophomore season:

The development curve of these similar players show Perreault will get better in year three. The peer group saw more ice time, took more shots and increased their scoring by 47 percent, mostly by doubling their assist count.

That would make sense. Skating on one of the top two lines, which is most likely where Perreault will see a majority of his time, would make him more of a set-up man to one of the Russian snipers.

In games played, the projection is a bit more optimistic. It is doubtful Perreault suits up for half the season, but if he does, expect him to produce seven goals and 14 assists over 44 games. An improvement, but not enough to claim a full time role with a Cup-caliber team.

Brooks Laich gives Braden Holtby the ol’ congratulatory helmet tap. (Photo credit: Francois Lacasse)

Marco Sturm seems, let's just say, pleased with his goal. (Photo credit: Graham Hughes)

Less than 24 hours after being shutout at the hands of the Ottawa Senators, the Washington Capitals turned the tables against the Montreal Canadiens on Holtby — err — Hockey Night in Canada. The 21 year-old stonewalled the Habs on the way to his tenth victory this season.

The Capitals dominated the play during the first period of play, outshooting the Canadiens 12 to three and scoring the only tally of the frame. The goal came just 84 seconds into the contest when Marco Sturm knocked in a rebound off a Nicklas Backstrom wrist shot.

Washington continued their strong play in the second stanza, outshooting the Habs once again while Braden Holtby held the fort in net.

In the third both teams managed good opportunities, but it would be the Caps who would convert. After, guess who, Marco Sturm poke-checked the puck away at center-ice, Backstrom started a three-on-one break before Alexander Semin finished the play off by flicking the Swede’s pass past Montreal goalie Carey Price. SHUTOUT FOR BRADEN! Caps stonewall Habs, 2-0.

• The first period was the story tonight. Despite Bruce Boudreau telling CSN before the game that he only hoped that the Caps would “weather the storm” in the beginning of the game, the Capitals completely dominated the opening stanza. Washington had nine of the game’s first ten shots, drew three penalties and held a six to three scoring chance advantage. The Capitals also held their opponent without a first period goal for the third straight game. The Bell Centre was not a “Hornet’s nest” as Joe B. described earlier. Instead it was more like a library.
• While the Caps had four power plays on the night, they managed just three chances on the man-advantage. The power play is the team’s biggest hole as we head into the postseason.
• Alexander Semin continued to be his enigmatic self tonight. While he picked up a goal and an assist, Sasha Minor took — you guessed it — an offensive zone penalty and fired five shots wide of the net. [Something about getting Jason Arnott back here.]
• Marco Sturm – who was promoted to the top line — had his best game as a Capital. He finally potted his first goal with the club, a heads-up tap-in on a two-on-one odd man break with Backstrom. What’s that old adage say? Go to the net and good things will happen? Sturm had two points, three shots and was on the ice for eight of the Capitals 13 scoring chances. You can thank Neil for bending the hockey gods to his will. If Sturm can play like that when all the injured Capitals come back healthy, this team will be lethal.
• Sure, Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin score all the goals, but the person most vital to the Capitals offense clicking is none other than Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom — who looked like he took it as a personal challenge after the team got shutout for the tenth time last night — rifled six shots at Price, beautifully set up Semin’s third period insurance marker while being on the ice for seven scoring chances for and just one against. When Backstrom was in a funk in the beginning of the year, the team struggled badly. Over the last few weeks, he’s really found his game, and to no surprise, the Capitals can’t stop #winning.
• Horn > siren
• The Habs finished their season series with the Capitals without registering a power play goal, misfiring on 17 straight extra-man opportunities. Tonight also marked the first time Montreal has been shut out in three consecutive games since 1949. Look at their roster back then. Everyone on the team was born in 1920.
• Speaking of shutouts, Braden Holtby recorded his second career blanking tonight — with sass. Holtby stopped 18 shots and with the victory, he also joined Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov as Caps ‘keepers with a least ten wins on the campaign. When both Ian and I talked to Holtby at the AHL All-Star Game, the Saskatchewan-native told us that beating the Leafs on Hockey Night in Canada in front of family and friends was “the highlight of his career “. In total, Holtby stopped 53 of 54 shots while on HNIC and 99 of 102 shots in four games against Canadian teams. Big game Braden stikes again.
• Alan May gets props for correctly stating on CSN’s post-game show that Holtby was “somewhat arrogant in the crease”.
• Bruce Boudreau told reporters post-game that Holtby was “fantastic” and “gave the team a lot of confidence.” Does that mean that Braden has put himself back into the conversation as a potential starter in the playoffs? Probably not, as you don’t want one of the three goaltenders on this team sitting out every game and not having a net during practice. That breeds bad blood. Think back to the situation with Kolzig, Johnson and Huet in 2007. Wait a second! There was a team back then? The Capitals also want Holtby to get more experience and playing time in high-pressure situations. That is guaranteed in Hershey. Think about it, this has been his first full year he’s been a starter in the AHL and he should have an opportunity to do the same in the playoffs — just like Varlamov and Neuvirth. His play actually has larger ramifications for next season and beyond as the Caps will most likely have to pick two-thirds of the trio to go with in the future.
• Did that Lars Eller counter-hit on Karl Alzner in the first period (the video is below) look like a dirty play to you? It sure did to us. Why that wasn’t whistled for interference — especially after how Matt Bradley was given a “boarding” call for his check on Patrick Wiercioch last night — we’ll never understand. On replay, Eller blasted Alzner head-first into the boards several seconds before he even touched the puck. We really don’t understand the officiating sometimes.

• Don Cherry’s plaid magenta suit was horrendous (Joe B.’s brown duds weren’t exactly great either), but it’s actually not that bad when you compare it to some of the other ones Cherry has worn.

Joe B. and Don Cherry Suits of the Night

Five of the Caps’ remaining six games are against non-playoff teams and Washington sits just two points behind Philadelphia for the number one spot. Yep, it’s going to be an interesting race to the finish.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland, Fedor Fedin and Neil Greenberg.

#GoodSasha (Photo credit: Paul Bereswill)

Awwwww! Photo credit: Matt Slocum

The Washington Capitals are in the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Now, don’t start panicking. The Caps of this year are different. They play postseason-style defensive hockey. (Well, let’s just forget about the D tonight.) Washington has their swagger back too. They’re just one point off the top spot in the East and are firing on all cylinders as April awaits.

Nicklas Backstrom opened the scoring at 7:52 after his wrist shot from between the circles snuck under Flyer goalie Sergei Bobrovsky’s shoulder. Weak goal. Then with under three minutes left in the first period, ol’ man Mike Knuble chipped in Marcus Johansson’s pass from behind the net to push the Caps lead to multiple goals. Spongebob never saw it. Weak goal.

Under 1:30 into the second stanza, Dennis Wideman fired a shot from the point the found twine after Bobrovsky failed to react in time. Weak goal. New ‘keeper. At 8:05 Kris Versteeg got himself an easter egg. Number 10 in orange and black racked up his 19th of the year after his off-target pass hit Wideman’s skate. With just over 30 seconds left in the frame Claude Giroux inched Philadelphia ever closer, one-timing Andreas Nodl’s perfect pass past Neuvirth. The Czech netminder never even moved on the shot after biting on Nodl’s excellent fake. The Flyers would then tie the game 10:02 in the third period when the Capitals got Jeff Schultz’d. Mr. Nasty’s outlet pass was deflected by Giroux and Nodl slapped it home. Daniel Briere would then score the Flyers’ fourth unanswered tally, saavily tipping a a Kimmo Timonen shot from the point home. 4-3, Fly Guys. Panic!!!1 Luckily for you guys, Swedes are good at hockey. Johansson would tie the game up on a perfect shot from the point with 3:19 left. What does that mean? Overtime.

In the extra period, there would be chances a plenty, but neither team would convert. You know what lies next: The Gimmick.

Ville Leino: goal. Matt Hendricks: fake, fake, fake, fake, fake, fake, fake, leg lift, fake, fake, fake, backhand and GOAL! Giroux: miss. Backstrom: GOAL! Briere: Goal. Up next, The Enigma. GOAL WSH #28 SEMIN, Backhand, Off. Zone, 7 ft. Playoffs, here we come! Caps top Flyers, 5-4 (SO)

• Tonight, the Capitals coined a new saying: “A three goal lead is the worst lead in hockey.” Got to find that killer instinct, boys!
• It may not have been pretty and it may not have been by design, but Scott Hannan‘s block of Matt Carle’s shot from the point with 1:13 left in overtime may have been the only reason why the Capitals had an opportunity to win the game in the shootout. After absorbing Carle’s blast, Hannan immediately dropped to the ice writhing in pain, but still managed to finish his shift. What do we call that in sports lingo? A gamer.
• Matt Hendricks. That is all.

• Jay Beagle won five of his six face-offs. The rest of the team? 19 of 49. Marcus Johansson was the worst on the dot tonight winning only six out of 16. Though we’ll find it in our hearts forgive him since he notched a primary assist and it was his sweet one-timer that pushed the game into OT.
• Since CSN wasn’t allowed to cover the game, we will hand out our own Palm player of the game award. Tonight it goes to the Capitals goal post, which bailed Michal Neuvirth out in stunning fashion twice. First, in the second period, the right iron denied Andrej Meszaros’s wrist shot from 17 feet away. Then it was left pipe denying Mike Richards’s bid to tie the game up five minutes into the final frame of regulation. And since you asked, we recommend the “Point Judith” Calamari Fritti.
• Well we’re on the topic of Mikey N., he wasn’t terrible (though as we stated, the Flyers were this close to netting six tallies) and he wasn’t great (but only one of the Philly goals was one he should have stopped). However, Neuvirth looked shaken and stirred by the Flyers comeback in the third — that’s a cause for concern if he is to be relied on during intense postseason games. And what’s his even-strength save percentage on scoring chances in third period with a one goal lead? (A mouthful, isn’t it?) .857 Semyon Varlamov’s? .941 I guess you know who my choice for playoff stater is.
• For about 62 game minutes, Alex Semin had us wanting to rip out our hair and throw it at the television. For example, instead of taking his typical, unnecessary stick-infraction, he doubled down on the foolish and took a double-minor for high-sticking after lazily missing on a lift-check. Additionally, in the third period after getting crushed by a leaping body-check from Giroux (picture here), Semin shied away from all contact for the rest of the game. But, just like those dang Sweet and Sour Patch Kids Commercials, Semin redeemed himself in overtime, nearly scoring on a great individual effort and then clinching the match in the shootout with some sweet moves — a shot that earned him the number one star of the game. Just like anyone ever who has written about Semin, when he’s on, he’s on. And when he’s off in lala land, there is not a more frustrating player to watch. Jason Arnott can’t come back soon enough.
• Dennis Wideman might have kicked-in or deflected Philadelphia’s first and fourth goals himself, but he did manage to score on the power play. It was his tenth goal on the year and his ninth on the man-advantage, tops amongst all NHL blue-liners. Wideman, however, was on ice for 11 even-strength chances against and played softly in front of the net. The most telling example was his gentle hugging of Giroux after he gave a snow shower to Neuvirth.
• The Capitals shutdown pair of Karl Alzner and John Carlson did not play well on Tuesday night, registering no scoring chances at even-strength and eight against.
• Despite holding a 3-0 lead at one point, the Capitals were physically dominated and thoroughly out-chanced 24 to 12 overall — 19-8 at even strength.
• 

  The resemblance is uncanny.

  Brian Engblom‘s hair stylist should be fired immediately. How can you do worse than a mullet? By going with the slightly balding, “Lloyd Christmas” look.

• Mike Knuble crashed the net hard all night and notched three points against his former team Tuesday night. With his marker in the first he earned his eight straight 20 goal season, making him one of only five active players in the NHL to have done so. He also now has a scintillating six points in the last two games. Last year, it took around two months for Knuble to find his legs. This year, about five. Clearly, father time is catching up with the right wing. But if he can keep this up in the playoffs, the Capitals will be a very hard squad to stop.

Big things appear to lie ahead for this team. Let’s make some history.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland and Neil Greenberg.

Photo credit: Dilip Vishwanat

When it comes to Alex Semin, there are fans on both sides of the fence. Some people think the $6.7 million one year deal is a fair one, while others, like me, think it is a tad too much. Part of it boils down to whether you think Sasha Minor is able to give consistent performance night in and night out. In other words, should players be rewarded even if they can’t produce consistently?

All hockey players, particularly goal scorers, hit slumps. A skater that shoots 14.5% for the season will have some nights when a third of his shots light the lamp and others that are goose eggs– it’s all in the game of hockey. In fact, it’s possible that the skater is not actually streaky by nature, but due to some bad bounces he appears streaky.

This chart is a random simulation of a hypothetical 35-goal scorer, who averages 3 shots a game and shoots 14.5% night in and night out– Mr. Super Consistency– using a 10-game moving average to smooth out the curves. Look at how streaky he appears, yet his shooting percentage (14.5%) and shots per game (3) never deviated on any given night.

Let’s look at it another way. This same hypothetical 35-goal scorer has a probability of going 0-for-3 on any given night equal to more than 60%, while his chances at a hat trick are less than 1%.

We really shouldn’t be surprised or disheartened when our favorite player fails to light the lamp because it is going to happen almost 2 out of every 3 games they play.

Now let’s look at Semin’s actual 10-game moving average for goals scored over the last 2.5 years along with another simulation of Mr. Super Consistency, this time using Semin’s actual shots per game over that time span.

Not much difference. In fact, it could be argued that Semin’s trend (in red) looks more consistent than Mr. Super Consistency!

Consistency during the regular season is fool’s gold, especially when 70% of scoring is due to luck. This is why future performance, not perceived consistency, should be the basis of any contract valuation.

Ovechkin is out of sorts. Does anyone know why? (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

Semin cooled off, Marcus Johansonn started to heat up, Ovechkin is un-Ovechkin-y, and we saw the Caps get shut out for the first time in almost a year. Quite an up-and-down week. Despite it all, scoring chances are once again preserved for posterity.

I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

Coach Boudreau used every line combo imaginable this week (except for the much ballyhooed DJ King-Steckel-Ovechkin line), so I thought we would look at expected scoring chance percentage (SC%). Scoring chance percentage is the amount of scoring chances-for (SCF) that go in the Caps favor when a particular player is on the ice. For example, if a skater is on the ice for 6 scoring chances-for and only 4 against his  SC% would be 60% (6 chances for divided by all 10 chances when on ice). If we know how often a player is deployed in the offensive zone, we can calculate their expected scoring chance percentage. Then it is simple subtraction: subtract the actual from the expected and we can see each player’s true efficiency. All numbers are for even strength only.

TOI = Time on ice
SCF = Scoring chances for
OffZone% = Offensive zone start percentage
ExpSC% = Expected scoring chance percentage
Delta = Actual SC% – Expected SC%
Dangerous% = Shots directed at net (including missed and blocked shots) that come from dangerous scoring areas. For forwards I look at shots for, for defensemen shots against.

Forwards

The reason for my man-crush on Boyd Gordon should be clear by now, but if it isn’t consider that he starts in the offensive zone only 43% of the time. He should have an expected scoring chance percentage of 47%, but instead it is second highest among forwards at 57%. In less math-speak, he is doing way better than he should when it comes to putting scoring chances in the Caps’ favor. And by “way better” I mean a team best.

Whiskey tango foxtrot Ovechkin? I wish I had last year’s data as a reference, but I am sure we can agree: something’s not right. You would think he would be driving the Caps’ chances in their favor (at least as much as Boyd Gordon or Tomas Fleischmann) but it just seems like he is struggling. Feel free to give your thoughts as to why in the comments. Creativity counts.

Marcus Johansonn is starting to trend in the right direction, and he leads the Caps with scoring chances from dangerous areas. As HCBB’s trust in him grows and he gets more time with better teammates, look for his boxcar stats to uptrend as well.

Defensemen

Carlzner is starting to get stuff done. They are driving scoring chances in the right direction, and keeping shots-against from dangerous scoring areas to respectable levels.

John Erskine, despite being used mostly in the defensive zone, is also doing his part to exceed expectations in regards to scoring chances.

Tom Poti looks to be struggling with his injury even when he is on the ice. Starting 6 out of every 10 times in the offensive zone should allow him to keep the puck going in the right direction, but instead he has the worst delta on the team. Get well soon, Poti.

Goalies

Not the best of weeks for Braden Holtby where bad play and soft goals got him pulled after against ATL. That 5v5 scoring chance save percentage is atrocious, despite the Caps defense giving him better support on shots coming from dangerous scoring areas, so don’t be surprised if he is sent back down to Hershey. Good news is you can still follow him on our sister site, Sweetest Hockey on Earth.

Perreault’s debut yields two assists & a +7 scoring differential. (Photo credit: Clydeorama)

What a week. We saw the PK streak come to an end at 25, the Caps roster looks like a scene from M*A*S*H and even the owner called the team average. Then Atlanta got InSEMINated so my fervor for logging the chances of each and every game has been renewed.

My definition as to what I consider a scoring chance is narrow by design – I am only looking to log quality scoring chances, not every shot directed at net. I look for a shot taken in the wedge shape pattern whose point is at the goal, extending outward through the faceoff dots and around the top of the circles. There is some great work being done on the topic of shot quality and as you’ll see in the diagram below, which has the latest 2009-10 Shot Quality data from Ken Krzywicki (including how shot type is not as significant as shot angle – neat stuff), there is a method to my madness.

I superimposed the heat map from Krzywicki’s analysis onto an NHL rink diagram. A shot taken from the red area has a VERY slight chance (~3%) of being a goal scored. The green area gets a little better with ~12% going in the net, dark blue ~22% and the light blue area converting ~31% of the time.  Clearly not all shots are created equal, nor are all shots directed to the net a realistic scoring chance. The best type of scoring chance? A rebound:

The goal rate for rebound shots of 32.8% is 3.7 times higher than the overall goal rate of 8.9%, indicating their high quality. Rebounds constituted 4% of all shots taken.

2009-10 NHL Shot Quality Heat Map By Ken Krzywicki

Speaking of heat, Matty Perreault was brought up from Hershey and got things going in a hurry, making his NHL debut with a +7 scoring differential and not on the ice for any of Atlanta’s goals against. I read somewhere that while Perreault may not be a future second line center he may be a better fit at this point in his career than Marcus Johansonn for a Cup run. Can’t remember where tho. I do know that one of the Original Gangstas of the MP85 Mafia will be difficult to live with for a few days. I’ll remind her one game does not a make a career, but it was a much needed spark for this Caps team.

Matt Hendricks continues to be a pleasant surprise. He is even on the scoring chance differential, does a decent job on the PK and got rewarded with some 2nd unit PP time vs. Atlanta.

Jason Chimera cannot seem to buy an offensive zone start from Bodreau. A 20 goal season was a long shot – with 1 offensive zone start every two games it is going to be downright impossible.

Tyler Sloan gets 63% of his starts in the offensive zone but is still has a negative scoring differential at 5v5. I may never understand why the Caps kept him – let alone sign him to  contract extension through 2012 – but the AHL, NHL and possibly KMart are filled with replacement blueliners that would be an upgrade.

TOI = time on ice
SC+/- = Scoring chances for minus scoring chances against while the player is on the ice.
SCF = Scoring chance for
SCA = Scoring chance against

With the Capitals signing players like Tom Poti and Michel Neuvirth to multi-year extensions, Alex Semin‘s future with the team still remains in doubt. Some people think the Caps should lock up the legitimate first-line scoring-threat long term, while others believe his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. Whatever side of the fence you’re on, one thing is certain: This year could not be more important to the young Russian winger.

Sasha potted a career high 40 goals last season and many are wondering if he can do it again in a contract year. From the time period of the lockout to 2008-9 there has been 39 40-goal seasons. This table shows how they did in the year after they scored 40 goals:

As a group they had an inferior season the following year. In fact, out of the 39 campaigns only three increased their total (Ovechkin +19 in 2008, Kovalchuk +10 in 2008 and Selanne +8 in 2007) plus Heatley, who was able to put together consecutive 50-goal seasons in 2006 and 2007.

The other 35 players tallied 13 less goals on average the following year.

In addition, players in the Top 20 in scoring should be expected to do significantly worse in their next season. Semin’s 84 points rank him as 13th in the NHL.

It certaintly looks like Alex Semin’s trade value this season will never be higher than it is right now – and along with Tomas Fleischmann who some think will score 65 points this year – we think you should take the under.