Photo credit: Chris Gordon (Click to enlarge. He’s got beautiful blue eyes, you know.)

Evgeny Kuznetsov has had quite a year. Not only did he win a gold medal with Team Russia in the 2011 World Junior Championship, become the youngest player to ever be in the KHL All-Star Game and get engaged, but he also had the second-most goals ever in a season for a Russian player under 19-years old (17 to be exact). But how can we measure his success compared to the NHL?

Gabe over at Behind the Net adopted Bill James’ concept of minor league equivalencies to estimate how well a player’s scoring ability will translate to the NHL. For example, if a forward scores 70 points in the AHL we don’t expect that same player to score 70 points in the big leagues due to a decrease in ice time and power play minutes with other factors including the quality of line-mates also playing in.

These equivalencies are not predictions of what a player will do, but instead an evaluation of what that player has done. When I looked at the Hershey Bears last summer it was evident that Keith Aucoin and Alexandre Giroux, while having strong AHL campaigns, would struggle to find a spot at the National Hockey League level based on the translation of performance to the higher level of NHL play.

As for Kuznetsov, let me say first that the competition level in the Kontinental Hockey League is much greater than the AHL. The game may be slower and less physical, but make no mistake: given two players at the same position and age, with the same ice time and stats, the KHL player will be the better bet in the NHL.

The KHL has come a long way in providing detailed stats, including ice time, so we can get a complete picture of not only what his NHL performance will translate to but also what we could project for him going forward.

First, the NHL equivalency:

Forty-five points scored would put him fourth highest on Washington’s leaderboard, just ahead of Brooks Laich and alongside Derek Stepan of the New York Rangers in rookie production for centers. With Kuznetsov’s gold medal performance and regular season play, I don’t find this out of the realm of possibility if he was given a full 82 game schedule .

Now that we know what he would have produced at the NHL level, we can project the next two years and see if it makes sense to rush him or let him develop in the KHL one more year.

Kuznetsov would be projected to play more NHL games in 2012-13, but his production would suffer a bit. This is not unexpected — we see phenoms regress in their sophomore season all the time. It is important to understand that it is not really a “sophomore jinx” as much as it is a rookie overachieving his first year. In 2013-14 we can expect to see Kuznetsov beginning to realize his full NHL value, with Tom Awad’s GVT metric climbing over NHL replacement level. This is when an organization wants to start the clock on a player’s salary-controlled years in order to maximize their draft asset to its fullest potential.

Caps fans should hope Kuznetsov is just posturing when he says he may stay in the KHL long-term, but let’s feel good he is developing in a tougher environment so when he does come to the big club his impact will be felt right away.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland and Chris Gordon.

One look at the dismantling of the Chicago Blackhawks and it becomes apparent that the life blood of any hockey organization is its youth. If you can bring in young players that provide value at reasonable prices you have the ability to succeed in the long term. In the case of the Hershey Bears, it allows the Caps to fill their team with players who know how to win and execute Bruce Boudreau’s system.

The challenge then becomes not only which players to promote, but which players should be dangled in a trade and which you can simply cut bait with. The underlying question in all of this is simply: Does the front office feel a certain prospect can make it in the NHL?

The Copper & Blue has been doing some excellent analysis evaluating all of the forwards drafted in 2009 and in 2010 using NHL equivalencies, a tool developed by Gabriel Desjardins.

NHL equivalencies try to figure out: How will a player’s performance translate to the NHL? It won’t tell you what a player’s stats will be once they make the jump but instead tries to give you a feel for, all things being equal (games played, PP time, etc.), what could you expect that player’s NHL offensive performance to be given his AHL boxcar stats.

We thought we would do the same focusing on the Hershey Bears and also bringing another element into the mix, one introduced in baseball by Tony Blengino: Relative Production Potential:

The method adjusts for league context, measuring all players’ performance relative to their league. Therefore, a massive offensive season as measured in traditional numbers in the pitcher-dominated High-A Carolina League carries more weight than a similar campaign in the hitting-crazy Triple-A Pacific Coast League. The RPP method also adjusts for a prospect’s age in relation to his level, weeding out all of the Phil Hiatts and Dale Sveums who create the illusion that they are long-term major league prospects with their pounding of minor league hurlers.

For example, there is no denying that Keith Aucoin had a dominating season for the Calder Cup winning Bears. Heck, he was even named the MVP of the League. But what else should we expect from a 32 year old career AHLer going up against 22 year olds?

On the flip side, Mathieu Perreault at age 22 had a much stronger campaign when you factor in age. While it may not translate to a better NHL equivalency, the upside of Perreault is probably greater than Aucoin since he has only been eligible to play in the AHL for two years versus Aucoin’s twelve.

So here’s the method:

1. Tabulate each forwards NHLE using Desjardins’ article for the translation from AHL to NHL.
2. Look at the Points per game and Shooting % for the entire AHL.
3. Calculate the amount of standard deviations each player is from the mean.
4. Make an adjustment based on the player’s age, subtracting one for each year they are over 25, adding one for each year under.

The NHLEs (based on an 82 game season) of last year’s Calder Cup winners (forwards only) listed in descending order of RPP:

As we would expect, the younger players gravitate towards the top if they had a “better than average” campaign compared to other forwards who played more than 20 games at the AHL level.

Mathieu Perreault leads the list explaining why he could be Marcuss Johansson’s main competition for 3rd line center at the NHL level this upcoming season. As to whether he can sustain the production over an NHL season while still improving remains to be seen.

Another interesting name on the list is Francois Bouchard, an adept playmaker, with a quick release and great vision in the offensive zone currently looked upon as a Top 10 prospect in the Caps system. With six forwards becoming UFAs in 2010-11 it may make sense to give Bouchrad a shot at the 3rd line if he comes in with another stellar AHL season.

RMNB blogger Andrew Gordon also showed he deserves a shot at the NHL level. If we look at his NHLE of .39 Points per game at age 25 his career could translate into something similar to Fernando Pisani or Joel Ward – a perennial 15+ goal scoring threat that doesn’t shy away from getting physical to win the battles for pucks or space on the ice.

Alexandre Giroux looks impressive with an NHLE of 54 points but when we look at his boxcar stats in context he has a nine year advantage on some of the competition. He should dominate them. We’ll know soon enough as he signed a one-way NHL contract with the Edmonton Oilers earlier this off season.

Chris Borque‘s 52 point NHLE combined with a second best RPP on the Bears makes me wonder if his decision to go to the KHL was a hasty one while Steve Pinizzotto 21 point NHLE at age 26 makes me disagree with the notion he should be one of the first call-ups from Hershey.

NHL equivalencies are just a tool that help us put offensive stats for forwards in context. It takes nothing into account how a player is defensively, whether he is a good skater or performs well in the clutch. It simply tells us “would this player perform on the NHL level and if so what would those stats look like.”

Well, what do you think of our post? Do you think defensive contribution and “hockey intangibles” could provide better insight? Let us know in the comments.

Alexandre Giroux holds the Calder Cup. (Photos by Kyle M.)

One of the greatest Bears of all-time has finally left for a legitimate shot to stick in the NHL. Bears first line Left Wing Alexandre Giroux signed a one-way NHL contract with the Edmonton Oilers early Saturday morning.

Per Mitch Beck of Howlings, Giroux had several good offers on the table and chose Edmonton because he gets to play in front of an old mentor:

The Quebec City native will be reunited with ex-Rangers coach Tom Renney. The left handed shooting Center played for Renney in the one game he got in with the Rangers back in 2005. In that game he played just three shifts and drew a key penalty on the second shift that led to a power play goal.

Giroux told Howlings, that he had other NHL options, including an offer from the New York Islanders. He also had a much more substantial $1.3mm offer from the KHL that he leaves on the table in order to complete his dream of being a regular NHL player. He does it with no regrets. “It was a lot of money and it was a hard decision, but I’m really excited to have this chance to make an NHL roster,” the recently turned 29-year old said. “Coach Renney is a great coach and the organization has such a great history. I’m looking forward to going there and giving it everything I’ve got to help the team become a contender once again and prove I belong there.”

Giroux leaves behind a league in which he completely dominated. His vast accomplishments in Hershey include the following:

• In 2008-09 Giroux was named the AHL MVP. He lead the league in goals (60) and points (98) while playing an abbreviated schedule (69 games) due to an extended 12 game stint in Washington. In total he played 21 games with the Capitals where he totaled 2G and 3A.
• His 60 goal achievement in 2008-09 was an AHL record.
• Also an AHL Record: The Rooster scored goals in 15 consecutive games. The previous owner of the record was none-other-than Brett Hull.
• In 2009-10, Alexandre followed up his MVP season by once again leading the league in goals with 50. The next closest AHL player was his own linemate in Andrew Gordon, who finished the year with 37.
• Giroux also managed to score 5 more points than he did in 2008-09 and go over the century mark (103) for the first time in his 6 year professional career.
• Giroux leaves the Bears second all-time in playoff scoring. He was only four points off Mike Nykoluk for the franchise lead.
• He won back-to-back championships with Hershey in 2008-09 and 2009-10.

I will always remember Giroux as a player who simply was a scoring machine. I will also remember him for being the guy that almost ran me over on the ice after the Bears won the Calder Cup again this year. Well good luck G and I hope to see you return to Washington in an Oilers jersey sometime soon! You’ll be missed!

Other Notes: The Washington Capitals – who have been asleep at the wheel since the Free Agent Doors opened Thursday – signed Goalie Dany Sabourin who is expected to back up Braden Holtby in Hershey next year… Hershey’s third string goalie Jason Bacashihua signed with the Colorado Avalanche today and will play in Lake Erie next year… Kyle Wilson, who had a multiple game stint in Washington last year, was signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Wilson was a 50pt producer in Hershey. His departure further hurts the Capitals’ center depth… Count out Brendan Morrison as one of the options to return to the Capitals via free agency. In this in-depth interview with The Province, B-Mo rips the organization and stresses the team made no adjustments to it’s 1 for 34 powerplay in the playoffs. Worth a read.

Here is Kyle’s video:

Glorious stills after the jump!

Keith Aucoin with the familiar “Are you not entertained?” pose.

Andrew Gordon waves at his– dear God look at those arms!  It’s like someone transplanted horses’ legs on his shoulders.

Alexandre Giroux has been doing this for three days straight.

Probably because it looks so cool.

Imagine a Kid Rock song playing in the background.

Center Andrew Joudrey incognito as a goalie.

I would do anything to get ahold of Braden Holtby’s video camera from the last week.

Bryan Helmer, portrayed here by Ted Nugent, celebrates with his daughter.

Chris Bourque holds aloft the Calder, seemingly undamaged.

Things take an odd turn as Chris Bourque’s teammates decide the celebration must continue shirtlessly.

BONUS:  Andrew Gordon Hugs Someone’s Grandmother
RMNB reader Sarah shares her celebration story:

I’m a fan of your site and follow you on twitter. A hockey fan, I’m from the Hershey area. I was in attendance at game six and also made it to Giant Center last night for the celebration. I love that you guys got Andrew Gordon to blog for you – it’s easy to see he’s genuinely nice. Last night he proved that and did something so sweet that I felt like I should share.

Yesterday happened to be my grandmother’s 80th birthday. A long time season ticket holder, she’s one of Gordon’s biggest fans. After waiting over an hour in line to see him, not only did he sign a card saying happy birthday to her but I asked him to turn around a wave to her in the stands (as she was unable to stand and wait in line with me). He initially waved to her, but then he got up out of his chair, climbed over the boards, and got up onto the visitor’s bench to reach over to hug her. It absolutely made her day, and I was able to get a photograph of it for her to remember.

What a boy scout!  Dude is making the rest of us look terrible by comparison.  Maybe we can dig up some dirt on Gordo to even it out.  We’re hovering dangerously close to Tiger Beat territory lately.

Keith Aucoin shoots while Aaron Gagnon surely does nothing meriting a penalty. (Chris Knight / The Patriot-News)

You gotta give the Bears this: they know drama.  Despite the Hershey offense being well tuned and on-target all throughout game five, the visitors could not gain a lead over the Stars.  By the end of regulation, the Bears had notched 37 shots, but all but one were summarily blocked by the excellent Stars netminder Matt Climie.  It took nearly fifteen minutes of extra hockey for Alexander Giroux to finally defeat the Stars defense and create Hershey’s first game-lead of the series.  The Bears beat the Stars 2-1 in overtime to put the series at 3-2, Hershey.

Don’t be mistaken by the low score; this was a 70+ minute exhibition of superb hockey.   The refs all but abandoned the concept of adjudicating hockey.  The two teams traded off in puck domination and net aggression.  Players dove to block shots with astounding frequency, and no player seemed to forget this is the finals– even when exhausted.   Michal Neuvirth, without a doubt, deserves tonight’s MVP nod for having rebuffed the Stars on perhaps a dozen excellent scoring chances.   John Carlson and Kyle Wilson, too, deserve applause for their precise defensive and shot output respectively.

But it was Alexandre Giroux, all but silenced before this play, who stepped up in overtime to score the game-winner. Roo pounced on a loose puck and swatted it in with a tenacity and alacrity that Climie could not match.  After blocking 41 shots, Climie was finally defeated the goalie by Alex’s force of will.  As John Walton would say, “Good morning, good evening, good night!”

The Bears are probably airborne right now, headed home to Hershey for the final one or two games of the series.  The Chocolate and White now have two chances to win the Calder Cup, and they seem more determined to do so than ever.

Clear your social calendar for Monday, June 14.

Above: Hershey celebrates their Game 4 win. Top: John Carlson does it again. This time, he redirects the GWG Home on a Bears PP. (Photos by Chris Knight, The Patriot-News)

Tonight could have gone very differently. Despite rediscovering their offensive mojo, the Hershey Bears could not generate a lead over the Texas Stars. With the end of regulation looming, the Bear shook off the threat of a do-or-die game 5 with Captain America John Carlson’s razor-sharp deflection past Stars goalie Matt Climie. An empty netter from Alexandre Giroux sealed the deal, and now we’re facing a unique prospect: the Calder Cup will be awarded in Hershey. With the series finally tied, the only question remains who will claim it.

A couple other quick notes for you:

• Pinizzotto penalty? Naturally.
• Scott McCulloch’s response to John Carlson’s GWG was to smother Karl Alzner into the boards. Yeah, they’ll remember that.
• No one was too sure who scored the game’s first goal: Andrew Gordon or Keith Aucoin. Once the snow cleared, Aucoin was given credit, but Gordo was a key player in that play and Carlson’s game-winner.
• If Hershey doesn’t make a red, white, and blue Carlson t-shirt soon, someone’s gonna make it for them.

The Bears will play their third and final game in Texas on Friday night. The series will return to Hershey on Monday, but will the most winning team in AHL history land in PA with the series lead or not?

Boyd Kane gets mobbed by his teammates after scoring the GWG in OT. (Photos by Kyle M.)

In front of their hometown fans in tonight’s game six, Hershey showed up to play, holding a huge edge in puck-possession time. But, as head coach Mark French would later say, the Bears’ effort those first 40 minutes was “misdirected.”  Manchester had a 24-13 shot advantage, and the Bears only managed 4 shots on goal in the first. Despite owning the puck much less, the Monarchs took what seemed like an insurmountable 2-0 lead heading into the third period.

Like they have all year, the Bears came back harder in the third and won their 7th overtime game of the playoffs (an AHL record). The Chocolate and White now advance to the Calder Cup Finals for the fourth time in five years and will face the winner of the Hamilton Bulldogs (MON)/Texas Stars (DAL) series! WOOOOOOOOOO!!

You know what? It’s been too long. Let’s play the bullets:

• I listened to game 6 on the Bears’ Radio Network while Neil and Kyle were there in person. I learned two things while listening to the game: 1.) John Walton has one of the best radio voices in the nation; 2.) during commercials, the internet audio feed sounds like how hell might sound on a windy day.
• 

  John Zeller scores on Neuvy after a blown icing call.

  Manchester’s first goal came with 17 seconds left in the first period on what should have been an icing call– or at least that’s what the Hershey players thought. That was all the advantage the Monarchs needed for Gabe Gauthier to steal the idle puck and leave a sweet drop pass for John Zeller, who ripped a shot past Michal Neuvirth. An off-ice official later explained to Bears beat reporter Tim Leone that icing wasn’t called when Karl Alzner touched the puck because Neuvy had left the crease to play it.  Neuvy didn’t actually play the puck, but that’s all that was needed to wash out the call.  And that’s also all it took for the Bears fans in Giant Center to being giving mock cheers whenever an actual icing call was made. Well played, Bears fans.
• Manchester’s second tally came off the stick of defenseman Joe Piskula who scored off a rebound in the second period. At that point the Bears had yet to present any clear offense, so the goal seemed like a dagger.
• In the third period, the Bears turned it on. (Sound familiar?) The Monarchs had initially limited Hershey’s offensive opportunities, but the Bears started getting second and third chances on their shots.  By the 7:37 mark, they finally put one past Monarchs goaltender Jonathan Bernier. Alexandre Giroux jammed a rebound off a Keith Aucoin shot for his team-best 12th goal of the playoffs. Most importantly, it energized the team, and it got the crowd back into the game.
• 

  Traffic in front. Waterbottle hit. Patrick McNeil scores!

  Seven minutes later, the Bears would ride the momentum and strike again. As two guys screened Bernier in front, defenseman Patrick McNeil took a shot from the left point which made it through. Pandemonium struck Giant Center as McNeil and his teammates celebrated his first postseason goal!
• Finally, in overtime, Boyd Kane scored what he referred to post-game as the biggest goal of his career (Ed. note – so far!). The captain of the Bears’ 2006 Calder Cup title team scored a dirty goal in front and was rewarded for it by getting mobbed by his teammates. Kane was the 7th Bear to score in OT this playoff year. Incredible.
• So yeah, four visits to the AHL Finals in five years? A sold out, boisterious crowd almost every night. Forget calling Hershey a dynasty. Can we call them a hockey town?

The Bears will now get some much needed and much deserved time off. We will have coverage of every game of the Calder Cup Finals as Kyle will be traveling with the team.  Their parent club may be done for the year, but the Hershey Bears continue to demonstrate the spirit that makes this organization the most exciting in hockey right now.

Bourque Scores, Bears Win. Hershey only 2 more victories away from returning to the AHL Finals. (Photos by Kyle M.)

For Game 2 of the AHL’s Eastern Conference Finals, the Hershey Bears were in front of a sold-out and enthusiastic Saturday Night crowd of 10,726 and they did not disappoint. Chris Bourque tallied the game’s first goal with a slapshot from the right faceoff dot. The Monarchs’ Gabe Gauthier would then score back to back goals to make it 2-1. It would stay that way until the 3rd period when Hershey’s Steve Pinizzotto would score his second goal in two games and send it into overtime. That’s when the miniature-sized Chris Bourque would take in a pass from Keith Aucoin on a 2 on 1 and score short-side at 10:28 of the first OT giving Hershey their 5th playoff OT win of the year. Bourque’s (6g 12a) clutch second goal of the night also tied him for first place in the AHL Playoff Scoring Race with teammate Alexandre Giroux (10g 8a). Both have 18 points a piece and are now 1 point ahead of the Texas Stars’ Jamie Benn (who none of us have ever heard of).

Hershey now has a record of 10-1 in the playoffs and have won all 5 games that have gone into OT. The Bears will now travel to Manchester, New Hampshire and try to take a 3-0 series lead Monday.

Take a look at the rest of Kyle’s incredible photos from the game after the jump.

Here’s a photo of the first faceoff of Game 2 at the Giant Center.

Manchester Goaltender Jonathan Bernier whacks Alexandre Giroux in front of the net.

Michal Neuvirth makes one of his 31 saves on the night.

Chris Bourque’s OT Game Winner went in as the net came off its moorings behind Monarchs goaltender Jonathan Bernier, but it was determined that the net had been pushed off by Manchester defenders, allowing the goal to stand.

Mathieu Perreault praises God after scoring the game winning goal in OT. (Photo by The Patriot-News)

Tonight, the Hershey Bears rallied to win 5-4 in OT and swept the Albany River Rats in their second round series four games to none. With the thrilling victory, the Bears now advance to the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals for the fourth time in five years! HERSHEY RUSSIAN MACHINE NEVER BREAKS!

Left Wing Chris Bourque accumulated a third of his 15 total points in the playoffs tonight, as he scored or assisted on every Bears goal. He finished the game with 2 goals, 3 assists and 5 points. Bourque scored at 8:23 in the first period and then again 59 seconds into the second frame. However, the River Rats answered each of Bourque’s talleys with two goals of their own, and entered the third with a commanding 4-2 lead.

But the Bears battled back, just like they have all year long. Alexandre Giroux cut the Albany lead to one with just over three minutes left in regulation and then Mathieu Perreault took over. The Washington Capitals’ fan favorite scored the tying goal to force overtime, and then after only 2:23 into the extra period, the 22-year-old Quebecois ended the River Rats season and its franchise existence (Albany will relocate to Charlotte, North Carolina next year, becoming the Charlotte Checkers) with the biggest goal of his young career. The Bears win 5-4. Time to party!

Due to the frantic schedule of AHL PLayoffs, Hershey will have to wait a week to find out their opponent from the Worcester-Manchester series but they’ll be ready. John Carlson and Karl Alzner, the future #1 defensive pairing of the Washington Capitals, returned to the Bears before the game and combined to have 6 shots and an assist.