Saturday night, John Erskine was suspended for three games and fined $24,324.33 for his elbow to the head of Philadelphia Flyers forward Wayne Simmonds. Erskine, whose play has earned him a sweater in five consecutive games, will sit out Sunday’s game at home against the Penguins, Tuesday’s game against Toronto, and Thursday’s game in Pittsburgh.

This will be the first time the 11-year veteran defenseman has been suspended in his career. His only other questionable play in a Capitals uniform came on Nov. 8, 2011 when he elbowed Dallas Stars defenseman Trevor Daley in the face. The hit, ruled a two-minute boarding penalty, did not merit a fine or suspension later. This time Big John wasn’t so lucky.

At 18:09 of the first period, Erskine elbowed Simmonds’ in the jaw, making the enforcer crumple to the ice. Simmonds woozily made his way to the bench, had two tampons stuck up his nose, and then walked down the tunnel to the Flyers dressing room. The forward did not return to the game. Later, Flyers’ general manager Paul Holmgren said that Simmonds has a “head injury” and “probably a little bit of whiplash.”

“From the bench it looked like a clean hit, it looked like accidental contact,” Matt Hendricks told the press after an optional practice on Saturday. “It looked like they were both fighting for the puck, fighting for position and they just kind of ran into each other. Once you look at the film, it looked a little bit different, but it was an accidental play, if anything, because Erskine isn’t a dirty player.”

When explaining his ruling, Brendan Shanahan disagreed. “Erskine looks up and clearly is aware of Simmonds’ proximity before delivering the illegal hit.”

The video:

GIF via welshhockeyfan

Late in the first period of Friday’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers, Big John Erskine got himself into some trouble. Skating up the ice, Erskine connected with Philadelphia’s Wayne Simmonds, drawing blood but no penalty.

As you can see, Erskine’s elbow makes contact with Simmonds’ face. The question Brendan Shanahan will be asking is whether or not Erskine was putting himself in a defensive posture– or whether there was a suspendable intent to injure.

Matt Hendricks had to answer the bell for the hit. Before the next faceoff, Zac Rinaldo summarily beat Hendricks in a bout. Both players recieved game misconducts.

Nice Canada hoodie, Elliot! (Video)

Wayne Simmonds stuck a tampon up his bloody nose before retreating to the locker room with Philly’s trainer.

Nicklas Backstrom has been suspended one game for a cross-check to the head of Rich Peverley in the third period of the Caps 4-3 loss to the Bruins this Monday. Backstrom received a match penalty for this cross-check at the time, which comes with an automatic one-game suspension pending review by the NHL front office.

Review it they did, and VP of Player Safety Brendan Shanahan has ruled that the suspension will stand. Backstrom will miss Game 4 on Thursday, the second of two home games in Washington DC. The Caps are currently down 2-1 to the Bruins for the series, and will have a chance to even the series, though that chance has just gotten significantly more difficult with arguably their best player sitting out.

You can watch Brendan Shanahan’s suspension video below the jump. Make sure there is nothing breakable nearby.

This was the fourth penalty of the night for Backstrom, who appeared to have to have been fed up with the Bruins apparent strategy of targeting his head.

“Every scrum, Nicky comes out with no helmet on, he gets blockered to the head by [Tim] Thomas the game before. He’s protecting his head,” Dale Hunter told WaPo’s Katie Carrera on Tuesday. “He’s got to protect himself. You get a second concussion you’re out a long time. If it wasn’t there, if the stick wasn’t in his face — Nicky Backstrom’s not that kind of player. He doesn’t just cross-check somebody in the face; he’s not like that. Because the stick was there he protected himself.”

Backstrom has missed 40 games with concussion this year, and will now miss one postseason game due to supplemental discipline.

The PuckBuddys have been memorably called the Russian mafia inside the Russian Machine. For the well-being of the operation, we’ve deliberately kept our pasts hidden. It’s been suggested that we’re former-Blackwater mercenaries, Watergate burglars or even Romney moles inside the Gingrich campaign (mission accomplished!) None of those are true, but we do admit to having relationships with some of the more subversive and extreme hockey organizations.

One such group is Capsonymous, a shadowy hive of anarchist Caps fans that operate off the grid, under the radar and over the top. Misunderstood by the mainstream hockey world, media and law enforcement, it’s been said that their methods are unsound. We judge them only by their record of mischievous achievements: the Crosby – vampire rumors, the Sabres’ implosion, Dustin Penner and Pancakegate, and getting Ryan Kesler to pose naked (again, mission accomplished.) Unofficially, on behalf of the home team, Capsonymous is responsible for DC winning the 2014 Winter Classic, convincing Ovi to skip the All Star Game, and getting Ted to blog and tweet about us.

Call them hacktivists or hocktivists; we call them allies in the greater struggle. The struggle for the Cup. Earlierthis week, they seized the PuckBuddys video channel to release a communiqué with a long list of grievances aimed at hockey’s 1%.  Advocating for the 99%, Caps fans who have been wronged by the hockey establishment, their message is clear:

“We are Capsonymous. We are Legion. We Rock the Red. We do not forgive. We do not forget. Expect us – to crash the net.”

Few jobs in the NHL suck more than Brendan Shanahan‘s. As the guy in charge of player safety, Shanahan has presided over 26 suspensions so far this season. Shanahan began publishing videos to document each infraction and provide transparency to a process that had been considered arbitrary in previous years.

I didn’t pay too much attention to supplemental discipline until this week, when Alex Ovechkin earned a three-game suspension for charging Zbynek Michalek. Ovechkin’s was the 10th three-game suspension of the year. With a big enough sample for comparison and Shanahan’s explanation for each, we’re finally able to peer into the underlying logic– and fairness– behind these rulings.

Ideally, all illegal hits can be placed on a spectrum from insignificant and benign to profound and malicious. Many factors would determine each hit’s location on that spectrum: the logistical mechanics of the hit, the context of the game, the language of the rule that governs it, the history of the players involved, the on-ice ruling, and (maybe) any ensuing injury.

In a perfect world, the resultant discipline (either fine, suspension, or both) would correlate to the severity of the infraction; more serious violations yield longer suspensions and bigger fines.

Let’s look at similar hits and compare them and their punishments.

Jan 22: Alex Ovechkin, Charging, 3 Games

Alex Ovechkin launches himself into the air to hit Zbynek Michalek, who is not in a vulnerable position and has just passed the puck. Ovechkin does not target the head, but he does hit it. Ovechkin is not a repeat offender by the definition of the CBA, but has a 22-month-old boarding  infraction and a 26-month-old kneeing infraction. Michalek does not appear injured and remains in the game.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player left his feet
• Contact to the head, unintentional
• No call on the play
• No injury on the play
• Not a repeat offender, but has a history of on-ice hits

In the suspension video, Brendan Shanahan says that once he went airborne, Ovechkin was responsible for any contact to Michalek’s head– even if that wasn’t the principle point of contact. That seems like a reasonable decision for accountability, and I won’t refute it.

Shanahan says that his decision took into consideration both of Alex Ovechkin’s fines and suspensions– even though they both are outside of the 18-month window that the CBA defines for “repeat offender” status. Shanahan also notes that both of those prior infractions were due to physicality. More on this later.

When I commented on the hit and the possibility disciple on the night of the hit, I wrote that Michalek was falling before the hit– leading to the contact with his head– and I underestimated the apparent deliberation behind Ovechkin launching himself into the hit. I was wrong. The angle that Shanahan uses in his video is illuminating. It certainly justifies some amount of discipline, and it raises other questions that we’re not really equipped to answer: what factors inform the decision for suspension and to what degree?

The best clues we have are the “key point” bullets that Shanahan delivers in his videos– an elemental deconstruction of each hit. If the system is truly fair, we should be able to reverse engineer each hit and suspension to discover a rubric for punishment. If we can’t divine their logic, then we have revealed the new discipline administration is just as arbitrary as its predecessor– and they’re just using cool videos and bullet points as a obfuscatory firewall.

Of the 10 three-game suspensions this season*, only two were similar to Ovechkin’s. Those hits were Mark Fistric charging on December 7 and Deryk Engelland‘s flying elbow on December 22.

Let’s look at each.

Dec 7: Mark Fistric, Charging, 3 Games

Fistric leaves his skates, launching himself to hit New York’s Nino Neiderreiter, who has just received a pass along the boards at center ice. Fistric targets and hits the head with a full-body check. Neiderreiter suffers a concussion and misses the rest of the game and beyond. No penalty is assessed. Fistric is not a repeat offender, but had been fined for on-ice violence 23 months earlier.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player left his feet
• Targeted the head
• No call on the play
• Concussion on the play
• Not a repeat offender, but has a history of on-ice mayhem

Neiderreiter missed five games due to his concussion.

Dec 22: Deryk Engelland, Elbowing, 3 Games

Engelland approaches Chicago’s Marcus Kruger, who has the puck entering the Pittsburgh zone. Engelland delivers a check to the head and leaves his skates upon the hit. Engelland is not penalized for the check. Kruger plays some of the game’s remainder and misses the next game. Engelland has no history of supplemental discipline.

In summary:

• Began as a legal hockey play
• Player leaves his feet upon impact
• Targeted the head
• No call on the play
• Concussion on the play
• Not a repeat offender, clean record

Kruger missed one game due to his concussion.

Comparison

All three hits have factors in common that could explain the equal punishment. They each could have been legal hockey plays, until the violating players leave their skates or target their opponent’s head. No  penalties were called on any of these hits. None of these players are considered repeat offenders by the CBA.

But there are stark differences as well. Ovechkin’s history of on-ice collision is explicitly mentioned as a factor in judgment. Fistric’s history of on-ice mayhem is mentioned but dismissed for not being germane.

Both Fistric and Engelland overtly target the heads of their opponents. The contact between Ovechkin and Michalek began as shoulder-to-shoulder. Again, the stated policy is that an airborne players is responsible for a hit to the head even if the head was not a target. But intent should not be assumed.

Finally, Fistric and Engelland cause concussions in their victims. 5 man-games were lost to Fistric’s hit; 1 to Engelland’s. No time was lost to the Ovechkin hit.

Perhaps Shanahan considered Kruger’s and Neiderreiter’s injuries as counterbalance to Ovechkin’s history– so he handed down the same sentence for all three. But that explanation isn’t credible, as Ovechkin’s history is beyond the window that the CBA allows for consideration. Unless Shanahan is ignoring the definition of repeat offender and making his judgments based on personality, which is what I assert he is doing.

I’d argue that the deliberation apparent in Fistric’s and Engelland’s hits was malicious and that the outcome of those hits was far greater than that of Ovechkin’s hit. Put another way– Fistric and Engelland targeted players’ heads and injured them; Alex Ovechkin targeted a player’s shoulder and did not injure him. Two were malicious; the other was reckless.

But they received the same penalty. Why?

Was Ovechkin suspended disproportionately because he is perceived — perhaps accurately– as being stubborn and ignorant to the danger of his play? Is the league fearful of him seriously injuring another player in the future, and are they using the suspension to modify his behavior? Is Ovechkin punished more aggressively because he is a star? Or (if you’re wearing a tin-foil hat) is Ovechkin persecuted because he is not North American?

Some of those questions are unfair, but they will all linger until personal interpretation is removed from the decision-making process for punishment.

Just as on-ice officials are given leeway to interpret the game and inject their own narrative, so too has Brendan Shanahan been allowed to punish players based on whim– rather than the letter of the law. And just as officials are routinely criticized for bias (“Typical Montreal”) and sometimes accused of corruption, so too will Brendan Shanahan until true transparency is granted.

That means a specific formula for punishment– open to the public. Five people different in five rooms can look at an incident, apply the formula, and reach the same result: Left skates + targeted head + concussion = 3 games. Left skates + targeted shoulder, hit head + history of hits = 3 games. Whatever.

But that’s not going to happen. And until then, bromides like “boys will be boys” and “let the boys play” will mask the biases that hockey authorities are not willing or able to confront.

Other Three-Game Suspensions

Jan 16: Dane Byers, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Jan 9: Jean-Francois Jacques, Elbowing, 3 Games

Jan 1: Ian Cole, Elbowing, 3 Games

Nov 11: Max Pacioretty, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Nov 25: Andre Deveaux, Hit to the Head, 3 Games

Nov 16: Chris Stewart, Hit From Behind, 3 Games

Additional research by Ian Oland.

* We have excluded preseason suspensions from our analysis because losing a preseason game is considered less punitive than missing a regular-season game.

Our Russian spies have infiltrated NHLHQ and recovered this alternate cut of Brendan Shanahan‘s suspension video for Alex Ovechkin. This video, archived by RMNB contributor Max Duchaine, contains several revelations about Shanahan’s mental state.

What we find is a broken man at the edge of madness, hated by all, who retreats to a lonely room to watch teen dramas and weep quietly. Do not loathe this man. Pity him.

Thanks again, Max.

Craig Brownstein of Puck Buddys provides this pregamer. All Free Citizens should follow them.

The Pregame: With Doug on IR (day-to-day, lower body – but we won’t say how low), I’ll take a stab at pregaming what could be one of the more critical games on the Caps schedule. And by take a stab, I mean a stabby-stabby and hate-fueled screed. Belittling all things Bay State is one of our favorite indoor sports, but there are so many Boston hFadlines today, we hardly know where to start.

Monday afternoon’s Bruins visit to the White House elicits only groans from us. We all know our Kenyan Marxist president would rather be honoring a Canadian team. As everyone knows, Canadians are generally far more receptive to Obama’s brand of socialism, with their noted embrace of socialized healthcare and flamboyant homosexual hockey fans .

Had the Canucks won the Cup, Michele “Let’s Move” Obama would’ve been swanning amongst the tables of a Canucks State Dinner (music by Nickelback), but instead, the Bruins were shunted off to the side, virtually ignored, and allotted only a crappy POTUS photo op that saw just about any scribe ::cough wyshynski cough :: getting credentialed for it. We’d give anything for the chance to hear those long gone, Grande Dames of the briefing room, Helen Thomas, Sarah McClendon, and Trude Feldman shriek at Claude Julien! More on the missing Bruin later.

Speaking of pucks and politics, we can only hope the Bruins will soon follow the trajectory of another Massachusetts Miracle, former Governor Mitt Romney. The South shall rise again, and rise it did over the weekend, by raining all over Mittens’ inevitability parade in South Carolina. Now limping around the Sunshine State, Mitt Romney, high-sticked plenty for his faux Bruins fandom (no record of him ever attending a game while Governor), just may end up following in the footsteps of other successful Massachusetts Commanders –in- Chiefs: Presidents Dukakis and Kerry. [Note to David Axelrod: Get Barry to the Booth if you want to sew up the hockey vote, and consider hosting a Dem Caps fundraiser and auction the rights to burn that schmata of a Bruins sweater that they gave your boss].

Yesterday’s heart-breaking OT loss to the Pens was followed by the Ravens debacle (cue more Beantown braying). Even from our hardened underground bunker, we could hear the shrill, self-satisfied bloviating of Boston fans everywhere. We’ll have to endure two more weeks of their unnerving smugness, but a Caps win on Tuesday night may be just the thing to shut their five-holes. On February 5, Stupor Bowl Sunday, we host the Bruins again at Verizon and we recall last year’s NFL Championship day, one that saw the Caps downing the Pens – ominous foreshadowing of what would happen to the Steelers later that day against the Pack.

Jeez, I’ve riffed so much on the Boston sidebar stories, there’s little room left to talk hockey. Consider yourselves lucky. We’ll deviate from the normal format a little because I’m… a deviate?

The Puck Drop

Against the backdrop of the ever-shaky Caps having to face the top team in the L’Eastern Conference (31-13-2, OK – 2^nd place, tied for points with the Rags, whatevs Mr. Fancystats), we’ve got injuries galore: (Nicky, Greenie, do we even mention Poti anymore?); illness with Po MoJo and weirdness (Sasha “uncomfortable” at the end of the bench yesterday – and by uncomfortable, we don’t mean those awkward hugs). And now we’ve had a brush with the law. Sheriff Shanahan, farming out the Ovi decision to the Casey Anthony jury, nailed our captain with a severe and draconian 3-game suspension.

Did Ovi leave his feet on that Zbyxněksickhahahah Michálek hit on Sunday? Maybe a little. Regardless of Shanahan’s Kangaroo Courtfindings, let’s put that controversial hit into much-needed perspective: 1). Despite the altitude achieved, to us (always the kneejerk Caps apologists), it looked like a hockey hit plain and simple, demonstrating Ovi’s leadership on the ice. 2.) Remember the Prague Spring? Russians are sooo loving of the Czechs that they sometimes get carried up, up and awayyyy. Ovi could’ve called in a column of tanks, but instead opted for an air strike. Michálek was so unfazed by the Ovi hit that he went head hunting for Hendy later in the game, and got off with nary a finger-wagging from Brendan “Bull Connor” Shanahan.

Even before the Pens game, we thought that Ovi should take a pass on the ASG – that the time would be better spent team building, sack grabbing and getting everyone’s heads and asses wired together. Eighth is too tenuous a spot in the standings for the Great 8 or his team. Captain Crunch could also use the time moving into his new digs. He just bought into the charming hamlet of McLean (5BR, 7.5BA, 11,000sf, $4.4M), increasing his commute but removing himself from the urban rat race that is Arlington.

What Makes Them Hot

1. The Whole Megillah: What can you say about a defending champion team that shrugged off their Cup hangover pretty quickly and has been playing excellent hockey? Let’s just leave it at that. These guys scare the crap out of us and for good reason – what they lack in individual goal and points leaders, they make up in depth, deep depth, very scary deep, dark and foreboding depth. In fact, we have the bends as we scribble this out. While the Bs have the best goal differential in the NHL, none of the top-20 point scorers call Boston home (Tyler Seguin is #25). As far as overall points, Tyler leads the Bruins as well and is in 24^th place, just ahead of our dear Angel, the ailing Nicky Backstrom. As an aside, leaving Steven Tyler out of the equation, are there any Tylers that aren’t hot?

2. Rasputin: Zdeno Chara is so big he blocks the sun and so heavy that he has his own gravitational pull. He’s so ugly, he’s got ugly he hasn’t even used yet. We can’t stand this guy and if it was up to us, we’d give the go-code to Hendy, Erskine and maybe Dale kick the crap out of him. It might take all three.

3. Net Positive – Nut Roots: We don’t know who gets the call for Tuesday, but either of Boston’s netminders would be formidable. Are we the only ones who scream “TIMMAY,” in our best South Park voices whenever he’s between the pipes? My God, we hate Tim Thomas and that was before he snubbed the President on Monday. Turning down a White House visit, no matter who resides there, is classless, and Glenn Beck fan or not, hockey should trump politics. Timmy should get his ass run mercilessly on Tuesday night for that serious breach of good manners and protocol. Timmy’s Crayola’s communique to explain his absense did little to help his cause. The brain-addled Unabomber scribbled out a far more coherent statement than the jibberish Lil Timmy posted on Monday. [Note to Timmy: The Bay State goes Deep Blue in November, despite your childish theatrics and temper tantrum, and the Dems probably pick up a Senate seat, too].

What Makes Us Hot

1. Out of Body Experience: Was that our Sasha with the Knublian-style, greasy goal from the doorstep against the Pens? Was that our Sasha getting in on a skirmish, too? Whoever that was, keep it up! Love that dirty water? Make it filthy, Sasha. You’re due and there’s no one better to humiliate than the Bruins. With Ovi out, it’s time to step up. Sasha – it’s your time, it’s your calling, it’s your destiny.

2. Czech Mates: It’s hard to fault either Vokoun or Neuvy lately, and we’d be comfortable with either getting the call on Tuesday night. They’ve been bringing it, far more consistently than earlier in the season, but still need help in front of them. Had the Hammer not been so far out of position against Geno during the OT, the Caps may have exited CONSOL with the two points. We say give the start to the Raccoon – and we say to the rest of the team, protect him at all costs. Tuesday night would also be ideal for a goalie fight (hint – hint).

3. Screw Tim Thomas. Go back to Bumtown, you bum!

Blame @thatwilcoxguy for this image.

Keys to the Game

Bruins: OK – maybeee I had some help putting this together. Besides the gentle nudges to include some stats and hockey things from a colleague (Hi Peter!), noted Bruins blogger, Sarah Connors of Stanley Cup of Chowder gave us some insight on what the Bruins need to do to win the game:

First and foremost discipline – when the Bruins keep their cool instead of retaliating like idiots, they win by a ton every time. Case in point: yesterday’s s-show (6-5 SO win over the Flyers) and the Canucks game (4-3 loss) are two good examples of them being idiots. We haven’t played the Caps since 2010; there were no Bruins/Caps games in calendar year 2011.

Sarah also laid down a challenge for Tuesday night, but we did not pledge RMNB to this, however: Whoever loses the game has to swap out their twitter avatar for a week, with the winning team’s logo. For the love of God and all that is holy and Leonsis, please Caps, SCOAR MOAR GOALS, CRASH THE NET, PLAY 60 MINUTES OF FLAWLESS HOCKEY, HIGH STICK – LOW STICK, WIN BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY!!!

Caps: We can only repeat what Alan “The Oracle of CSN” May, has been saying, tweeting and screaming, “SHOOOOOOOT!”

Meme of the Day

Alex Ovechkin has been suspended three games for his hit on Penguins defensemen Zbynek Michalek–here’s our post on it if you haven’t seen the hit, which happened in the second period of Sunday’s game. He will miss upcoming games against the Bruins, Lightning, and Panthers, and won’t be back in action until the February 4th game against the Canadiens twelve days from now. He will forfeit $154,677.75 in salary for the three games.

Ovechkin is the first Capitals player to receive supplemental discipline this season, making the Caps the 22nd team to have a player suspended, with only 8 teams still untouched. To some extent Ovechkin is a “repeat offender”, at least according to the spirit of the law, though the rulebook clarifies this as a player with offenses on his record within the last 18 months, and Ovechkin’s last suspension was 22 months ago. Given Ovechkin’s reputation for leaving his feet on hits, though, Brendan Shanahan–celebrating his 43rd birthday today, which you’d think would put him in a better mood–clearly decided to make a point.

Here’s Brendan Shanahan’s video explaining the suspension. Console yourself with the swooshy sound effects.

While I am generally anti-brain-damage overall, the team will miss Ovechkin horribly, especially in the game against the Bruins tomorrow. With Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green already out, Ovechkin’s three-game absence will leave Alex Semin as the last “Young Gun” standing. …Godspeed, Alex Semin.

In a team that’s still finding their feet under Dale Hunter’s new system, Ovechkin has often been relied upon to drive offensive play–we have to confess we’re not sure what the Caps will look like tomorrow, but in a game against the reigning Stanley Cup champions, they’ll need an inspired effort like they were able to pull together when similarly shorthanded Sunday.

Michalek, who also had a hearing today to answer for his retaliatory hit on Matt Hendricks, escaped any suspension or fine. Speaking to the Washington Post’s Katie Carrera this morning, Hendricks said, “You don’t want guys going hunting for each other — trying to put them out with concussions, things like that. But at the same time, if this game isn’t played physically, it’s not a very good hockey game.”

Photo credit: Ryan Remiorz

11:46 PM Update: NHL.com reports that both Ovechkin and Michalek will meet with the Department of Player Safety on Monday.

Bob McKenzie of The Sports Network is hockey’s version of a public intellectual; his thoughts matter concretely to the game. On Sunday night he took to Twitter to address Alex Ovechkin’s hit on Zbynek Michalek and possible discipline that may follow from it. We won’t call it “supplemental” discipline, because there was no primary discipline– although there certainly should have been.

Here’s what Bob says:

By the CBA’s definition (18.3.c), Alex Ovechkin is not a repeat offender. His last discipline was in March of 2010, more than 18 months ago. That 2010 suspension was for 2 games after Ovechkin boarded Chicago’s Brian Campbell (no relation to the then discipline czar Colin Campbell).

Ovechkin’s status as a repeat offender expired several months ago, but any history of discipline may still be considered by Brendan Shanahan– including knee-on-knee hits against Tim Gleason and Sergei Gonchar, the Brian Campbell boarding, and any alleged Chris Neil yambagging.

I won’t argue that Alex Ovechkin hit the head, but I submit that the principal point of contact was Michalek’s shoulder:

Alex Ovechkin’s hit absolutely deserves the attention of the player safety people. He left his feet to hit a player who did not have the puck– and he did hit the head. But I do not agree with McKenzie’s characterization or the selective focus when compared to Michalek’s hit on Matt Hendricks just a few minutes later, which also was not mentioned in an article by Puck Daddy.

And besides, Bob McKenzie is Canadian and therefore incapable of coherent thought.

To prove this, we enter into evidence the career of one Bryan Adams:

The defense rests.

Ed. note: Just noticed this article is eerily similar to one Adam Vingan posted on SB Nation. In an attempt to quell our longstanding and bloody feud, here is a link to his post and a blurb for the dust jacket of his first book, free of charge: “Adam Vingan’s puns are to writing what Prince is to music, but without the creepy sex vibe.” – Peter Hassett

Photo credit: Chris Gordon

A 24-year-old Mike Knuble, then a promising forward prospect, played nine games for the Detroit Red Wings during the 1996-97 season.

Players who were still playing during Knuble’s first season in the NHL include Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek, Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Mark Messier, Dino Ciccarelli, Brian Leetch, Grant Fuhr, and Ron Hextall.

Just days after Knuble’s first game, Phil Collins announced that he was leaving Genesis to focus on his solo career, M.C. Hammer wasn’t yet bankrupt, and it would be months before The Daily Show debuts on Comedy Central.

I guess what I am trying to say is Knuble is old getting up there in years, but don’t tell him that.

“I’m out there playing for another deal,” he said. “I’m not riding off into the sunset. I want to make that point clear to everybody. This is no farewell song.”

I agree with him, but it is one of the last tracks on a darn good Greatest Hits album.

Players like Knuble who are productive over the age of 35 tend to keep their production rates in the league relatively stable as they age. Knuble was also a late bloomer: He had averaged eight goals per season his first three years and has almost tripled that production in his last three.

Using wingers who played at 39 years old post-lockout, we can make an educated guess on Knuble’s production for 2011-12. I will caution you that the entire player pool from which to draw from is limited, containing only Bill Guerin, Brendan Shanahan, Mark Recchi, and Teemu Selanne.

Using these players as a guide, we can speculate that Knuble will play 75 games, score 34 points (21 G and 13A) while taking 188 shots on goal.

Here are some probabilities for goals and point scored:

“It’s going to be a challenging year, definitely, with more competition,” cautioned Knuble. “Nothing is guaranteed.”

We couldn’t agree more.