Not Alex Ovechkin. (Pic via capitals.com)

For those of you who like the All-Star Game, good news: this game was just as loose and ridiculous as you could have possibly dreamed. For those of you who dislike the All-Star Game, good news: it’s over.

We return to real hockey on Tuesday and thank goodness for that, but it was a nice weekend of rest for most of our team, and a nice weekend of dumb, mindless spectacle for hockey fans. I expect to see the rest of the Caps come back with suntans, and Dennis Wideman to come back with a smile on his face. As silly as most of the actual events of the weekend are, recognition is and always will be one of the best feelings in the world, especially for a guy like Wideman that rarely gets what he deserves.

It’s still official Dennis Wideman Day for the rest of Sunday, and then after that you can go back to your regularly scheduled Caps fandom.

Best Moments

• Remember that time that Henrik Lundqvist said that Marian Gaborik couldn’t score on him? Gaborik should have made him bet on it. He had two goals against his teammate, and on the first one he went down into Artem Anisimov’s “shotgun” goal celebration. Luckily John Tortorella appeared to think this was very funny. Either that, or that was his crazy laugh.
• Dennis Wideman was paired with Dion Phaneuf today…in a game where players don’t hit, which basically negates any value that being paired with Dion Phaneuf could have had. Sorry, Dennis.
• A good moment to ask Alfredsson for an in-depth retrospective on his career is definitely when he is on the ice in the middle of a hockey game.
• Due to overwhelming demand, Drake performed at intermission. We were in tears. He is truly this generation’s Shakespeare.
• Tim Peel was a referee for the game, and had to be told several times to stop trying to call diving on Alex Semin.
• Gaborik scored three goals for a hat trick, but no hats were forthcoming. One guy tried to throw a hat on the ice–a referee threw it back. Buzzkill.
• Hartnell after he scored: “Woo! The Sedin triplets!”
• The Kessel-Lupul line scored twice. The Ottawa crowd was quick to celebrate their careers and accomplishments in a game that crosses all team lines. Also tonight in almost-irony: Tyler Seguin was the other player on their line.
• Hometown hero Daniel Alfredsson scored twice in the second period, and the crowd tried to blow the speakers out with the “Alfie” chants. Great moment.
• Scott Hartnell kept tempting us with baby checks–the broadcast team classified them as “bumps”. We just want somebody to flat-out check somebody else. Just one time. Ryan Suter on this: “Someone’s going to have to settle him down. He’s running around there hitting guys.” The horror!
• Steven Stamkos stopped a puck with his stick from the bench so that Dan Girardi didn’t have to chase it down for icing. That’s so illeg–ahhhh, it’s the All-Star Game.
• Awkward Kessel of the night. “Phil, you look good out there, your legs look like they’re moving better than last night!” “Oh, I don’t know about that. I feel awful.”
• The broadcast team recklessly encouraged Claude Giroux to trip Scott Hartnell, who not only immediately took their suggestion but also tried to get other players in on it as well. #pushHartnelldown

Priceisms

Pic: Fred Chartrand

• “Carey, did you get a piece of that?” “Nope. I’ll say I did though.”
• To the ref, when he covered the puck: “Don’t blow that whistle, I want this thing to run out here!”
• On his goalposts stopping pucks: “These guys are awesome tonight. They’ve been excellent all year.” “Did you kiss your posts like Patrick Roy?” “No but I gave them a pretty good love tap here. They were awesome in that sequence.”
• On his teammates: “These guys are playing hard for me right now! I might have to buy them a dinner afterward!” This is apparently very new for Carey Price.
• “Oh, here we go,” I have deciphered, is Price-speak for “please shut up real quick, people are trying to score on me.”

Results

• Winner: Team Chara, 12-9. I can see why the NHL wants higher-scoring games. This was so thrilling and suspenseful.
• Goal Scorers: Gaborik (3), Malkin, Spezza, H. Sedin, Tavares, Lupul (2), Pominville, Alfredsson (2), Kane, Kessel, Iginla, Giroux, Hossa, Chara, Perry, D. Sedin.
• Game MVP: Marian Gaborik
• Wideman ended the night with 20:27 of ice time, a -2, and one assist.
• If you are looking for an extensive gallery of artistic crotch shots, Getty Images has got you covered. This is what the spirit of the All-Star Game is really all about.

And we’ll leave you with this. (Pic: Gregory Shamus)

Doug Johnson of Puck Buddys offers this game preview. @PuckBuddys.

[Ed. note: for coverage of Rene Bourque, uhhh... check out RMNB on Wednesday morning.]

The Pregame: Fun game! Everyone from a malfunctioning family, raise your hand. Or, if you’re in a public place, just give a little squee inside. Yeah, we thought so. Show me the person who says their family is perfectly normal and I’ll show you a glue-sniffing, trick-turning, psychopathic cat hoarder. You know: like [fill in hated politician here] Oh, biting wit!

And speaking of glue-sniffing (bet you thought it’d be sociopathy), we come to Wednesday’s game against the Montreal Canadiens. Les Habitants. You know: the Baldwin family of contemporary hockey. Or should that be the Donner Party? Either way, they eat their own to the amusement of all.

Oh you bet, we’ve all had a hearty laugh – a long, hard laugh – at the goonish antics of our Quebecois neighbors of late. Like watching the Spuckler family argument spill out onto the un-mowed back lawn, hurling rotting plastic chairs at one another as they jockey for “superiority” amid the weeds and used Timmy Hos coffee cups. Too much back bacon, eh?

The Puck Drop

Andrei Kostitsyn

Where to begin, presented with such a luxe buffet? Start with a hearty slab of Cammalleri’s trade… mid-game. Larfs! Kris Humphries divorce ended more graciously (or should that be John Huntsman? Oh… oops, that’s right… nevermind.)  Then again, at least according to PuckBuddys’ Habs correspondent Matt Skolnikov, Cammalleri “…was a prima donna that was all chiseled good looks and bags of beauty products in the locker room for touch-ups during intermissions but not, in my opinion, much of a hockey player.” Snaps high, girlfriend.

Beyond the other – many other – examples we could cite, the key point is that the Habs blow this season. Like [redacted, sorry guys!] blow. Les Canadiens (17-20-8) are at the bottom (ahem) of the Northeast Division, behind (heh-heh) the Sabres for Crimminy’s sake. They stink at home (8-8-1); they stink worse on the road (9-12-1); shorthanded goals have deviled them; and while they have a sorta decent PP, they munch at their primary job: goals in net (a lame 115).

Still, we – your humble PuckBuddys – have resolved to not face-wash Les Lame-o’s we’re playing, nor wriggle with delight at our opponents troubles. Which makes this whole enterprise rather comical. Whatever, here we go with

What Makes Them Hot

Lars Eller

1: Tish, I Love French!  Brian Gionta, gap-toothed menace Ryan White, and the seasoned Andrei Markov are all out on injuries, leaving the Habs to seriously regroup. Among those stepping up, center Scott Gomez. At 0G/5A, minus-2, he may not seem like a threat, but watch this kid; he’s been hot of late. Another colleague, Max Pacioretty (15G/17A, minus-1) sounds like something we’d put on a pizza, but of late he’s eating opponent’s lunch.

2: Bargain Bin. Carey Price is exactly who he is. His GAA of 2.551 isn’t King Lundqvist worthy (but almost exactly Racoon-worthy) but his .913 SA puts him right up among the best this season. Too bad he may not be playing for the Habs next season, or not. Halak or Price? It sounds like the Canadiens management may be lining up behind Price for contract renewal – perhaps at a large (don’t say it) price.

3: Loose Change: Erik Cole (17G/16A, plus-5), Danish treat and recent hattie Lars Eller (8G/9A, plus-1), and others; they all help. But Montreal’s forward play has been, ummm…lacking. So what if you’ve got hotties on the ice – can they score?

Why They’re Not

1: Home town! Teams are expected to play well at home. Teams from the elite of hockey are expected to whip opponents at home. Teams like the Habs – strike that, there is no other team like the Habs – are demanded to perform in front of the hometown audience… which means, win. This season, at le Centre Belle, the Canadiens have turned in a cringe-inducing 8-8. Hé Grenouilles, votre équipe pue!  (And by that, we mean Le Pew!)

4-time cup winner Gilles Tremblay

2: Shadows of Glory. This, even for us, is something we come to with humility. The Habs were (and we expect will be, some year) a fixture of hockey’s glory. Maybe it takes an original six fan to say this, but Montreal has been a hated favorite of mine. Boston? Dirty-playing dirt dicks, frankly. Les Habs? Right up there with the Wings: class, class, classy-class-class. Gordie Howe, meet Gilles Tromblay. Steve Yzerman? Jack Laviollette. Sergei Federov, here’s Guy Lafleur. Here’s the point, other than slobbering in fanboy daydreams: the Habs are a team of tradition, of longevity, and of class.

It is a sad fact that today, however, that tradition is rendered as little more than clown car. That, mes amis, will not end before this season. Nos bras meurtris vous tendent le flambeau, à vous toujours de le porter bien haut. Flambeau away, dear Habs; flambeau away.

3: One Word: Sasha-stacular! H8rs, the line forms somewhere between the men’s room and the exit sign. Our other Russians have mixed results – Ovi, who totes gets the whole “crash the opponent” thing, and the “crash the net” thing, too, except for the part where he actually gets the puck IN the net; and Dima – SCOARLOV! – who is showing every bearish sign of moving up and up save for the fact that he’s barely out of shortpants and is still a class act.  But we have to come back to Sasha Major. 11G/13A, plus-1? That doesn’t even start to tell the story of our heavy-metal, pipes-crashing, sniper-tastic Sasha of late. Good Sasha, you may take the stage.

Prediction

Because we’re dopes, we go out on the line. Caps 4, Habs 3.

The OT

The PuckBuddys, and the RMNB family, welcome a new addition this week. Specifically a huge, black-furred, long-snouted girl, with the adoption of retired greyhound racer and brood-mom, Uma. A home with boys isn’t quite complete without a a boy’s best friend, so we welcome her in all her giant rat-snaring, couch-hogging, mess-making fuzzy glory. Rats of DC beware: Uma is on the prowl. We <3 U.

Meme of the Night

Brooks Laich gives Braden Holtby the ol’ congratulatory helmet tap. (Photo credit: Francois Lacasse)

Marco Sturm seems, let's just say, pleased with his goal. (Photo credit: Graham Hughes)

Less than 24 hours after being shutout at the hands of the Ottawa Senators, the Washington Capitals turned the tables against the Montreal Canadiens on Holtby — err — Hockey Night in Canada. The 21 year-old stonewalled the Habs on the way to his tenth victory this season.

The Capitals dominated the play during the first period of play, outshooting the Canadiens 12 to three and scoring the only tally of the frame. The goal came just 84 seconds into the contest when Marco Sturm knocked in a rebound off a Nicklas Backstrom wrist shot.

Washington continued their strong play in the second stanza, outshooting the Habs once again while Braden Holtby held the fort in net.

In the third both teams managed good opportunities, but it would be the Caps who would convert. After, guess who, Marco Sturm poke-checked the puck away at center-ice, Backstrom started a three-on-one break before Alexander Semin finished the play off by flicking the Swede’s pass past Montreal goalie Carey Price. SHUTOUT FOR BRADEN! Caps stonewall Habs, 2-0.

• The first period was the story tonight. Despite Bruce Boudreau telling CSN before the game that he only hoped that the Caps would “weather the storm” in the beginning of the game, the Capitals completely dominated the opening stanza. Washington had nine of the game’s first ten shots, drew three penalties and held a six to three scoring chance advantage. The Capitals also held their opponent without a first period goal for the third straight game. The Bell Centre was not a “Hornet’s nest” as Joe B. described earlier. Instead it was more like a library.
• While the Caps had four power plays on the night, they managed just three chances on the man-advantage. The power play is the team’s biggest hole as we head into the postseason.
• Alexander Semin continued to be his enigmatic self tonight. While he picked up a goal and an assist, Sasha Minor took — you guessed it — an offensive zone penalty and fired five shots wide of the net. [Something about getting Jason Arnott back here.]
• Marco Sturm – who was promoted to the top line — had his best game as a Capital. He finally potted his first goal with the club, a heads-up tap-in on a two-on-one odd man break with Backstrom. What’s that old adage say? Go to the net and good things will happen? Sturm had two points, three shots and was on the ice for eight of the Capitals 13 scoring chances. You can thank Neil for bending the hockey gods to his will. If Sturm can play like that when all the injured Capitals come back healthy, this team will be lethal.
• Sure, Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin score all the goals, but the person most vital to the Capitals offense clicking is none other than Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom — who looked like he took it as a personal challenge after the team got shutout for the tenth time last night — rifled six shots at Price, beautifully set up Semin’s third period insurance marker while being on the ice for seven scoring chances for and just one against. When Backstrom was in a funk in the beginning of the year, the team struggled badly. Over the last few weeks, he’s really found his game, and to no surprise, the Capitals can’t stop #winning.
• Horn > siren
• The Habs finished their season series with the Capitals without registering a power play goal, misfiring on 17 straight extra-man opportunities. Tonight also marked the first time Montreal has been shut out in three consecutive games since 1949. Look at their roster back then. Everyone on the team was born in 1920.
• Speaking of shutouts, Braden Holtby recorded his second career blanking tonight — with sass. Holtby stopped 18 shots and with the victory, he also joined Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov as Caps ‘keepers with a least ten wins on the campaign. When both Ian and I talked to Holtby at the AHL All-Star Game, the Saskatchewan-native told us that beating the Leafs on Hockey Night in Canada in front of family and friends was “the highlight of his career “. In total, Holtby stopped 53 of 54 shots while on HNIC and 99 of 102 shots in four games against Canadian teams. Big game Braden stikes again.
• Alan May gets props for correctly stating on CSN’s post-game show that Holtby was “somewhat arrogant in the crease”.
• Bruce Boudreau told reporters post-game that Holtby was “fantastic” and “gave the team a lot of confidence.” Does that mean that Braden has put himself back into the conversation as a potential starter in the playoffs? Probably not, as you don’t want one of the three goaltenders on this team sitting out every game and not having a net during practice. That breeds bad blood. Think back to the situation with Kolzig, Johnson and Huet in 2007. Wait a second! There was a team back then? The Capitals also want Holtby to get more experience and playing time in high-pressure situations. That is guaranteed in Hershey. Think about it, this has been his first full year he’s been a starter in the AHL and he should have an opportunity to do the same in the playoffs — just like Varlamov and Neuvirth. His play actually has larger ramifications for next season and beyond as the Caps will most likely have to pick two-thirds of the trio to go with in the future.
• Did that Lars Eller counter-hit on Karl Alzner in the first period (the video is below) look like a dirty play to you? It sure did to us. Why that wasn’t whistled for interference — especially after how Matt Bradley was given a “boarding” call for his check on Patrick Wiercioch last night — we’ll never understand. On replay, Eller blasted Alzner head-first into the boards several seconds before he even touched the puck. We really don’t understand the officiating sometimes.

• Don Cherry’s plaid magenta suit was horrendous (Joe B.’s brown duds weren’t exactly great either), but it’s actually not that bad when you compare it to some of the other ones Cherry has worn.

Joe B. and Don Cherry Suits of the Night

Five of the Caps’ remaining six games are against non-playoff teams and Washington sits just two points behind Philadelphia for the number one spot. Yep, it’s going to be an interesting race to the finish.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland, Fedor Fedin and Neil Greenberg.

One of the great things about the internet is that different people can make advancements in a field (like hockey analysis) that work together, build off each other, and provide new ideas and techniques that everyone can utilize. It’s a very cool phenomenon.

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2010/1/10/1233023/price-halak-the-stats-december-2009

Chris Boyle compares Montreal Canadiens goalies Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak with some really great, in-depth analysis. He breaks down the quality of the goals each allowed into good, bad, and suspect. There are graphics for where in the net goals where scored, including some breakdowns of the circumstances of some of the goals (who, from where, type of shot, etc). There’s a look at save percentage on shots from various distances. Just fantastic work, all around.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/6/1234466/how-much-do-ufas-and-rfas-cost-per

Hawerchuk looks at the players signed last off-season and their projections for this season to get an idea of the going rate of a win.

For unrestricted free agents it was $2.23 M per projected win, and for restricted free agents it was $1.33 M per projected win.

The 40% discount rate jibes well with my intuition, since in Major League Baseball a player in his three arbitration years will get about an 60%-40%-20% discount off of full market value in successive years. That averages out to the same 40%.

I had been using $3 M per win as the going rate on the free agent market, so it’s good to have that figure updated.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3288#more-3288

Countering: “Generally, what sets the NHL apart from the far more predictable (and parity-free) NBA is the curious effect that team play and chemistry, coaching and camaraderie can have on results.”

With: “The more opportunities you give to the better team, the more likely skill will win out.

In the other post that I’ve linked, he did some math and concluded that, to have the same reliability in terms of knowing the strength of a given team, you’d need a 32 game schedule in the NBA, a 28 game schedule in the NFL, an 82 game schedule in the NHL and a 162 game schedule in MLB. This, I think, gives rise to an alternate theory to “team play, chemistry, coaching and camaraderie” – we (or those of us who care about basketball) know a lot more about an NBA team from the preceding season’s results than we do about an NHL team… I’m inclined to think that “team play and chemistry, coaching and camaraderie” is a euphemism for variance.”

And throws in an example from Tom Tango: “Suppose, for example, that a tennis match lasted only one set. That is, a set is a match. Would Federer win 88% (or whatever it is) of his matches? No, of course not. If he’s winning 88% of his matches because he’s winning 65% (or whatever it is) of his sets, then having a one-set match means he’d only win 65% of the time. Similarly, if you had 7-game or 9-game matches (spread say over two days) then he’d win 95% or 99% of his matches. He’d look unbeatable (except for when he plays Nadal).”

Yup. Intangibles are what you reference when you don’t have something else to reference to make your point. The NBA isn’t more predictable because of chemistry – it’s more predictable because of the inherent structure of the sport.

http://campbellandwales.wordpress.com/2010/01/09/team-profile-washington-capitals/

“While a compelling narrative could be made for the New Jersey Devils, a quick look at the divisional standings shouts hosannas to the Buffalo Sabres, I continue to hold on to the belief that the Washington Capitals are the strongest team in this year’s Eastern Conference…

Green has ten goals (4 on the power play) and 31 assists. Looking at the advanced numbers, he is currently 2nd in the league (behind only Duncan Keith of the ‘Hawks) in Tom Awad’s Goals-Versus-Threshold (GVT) statistic, comparing a player’s contributions to what would be expected from a non-prospect from the AHL at +11.8. His adjusted +/- is currently +8.2. One thing worth keeping in mind, however, is his Quality of Competition score, as tracked by behindthenet.ca. At 0.021, he is only 5th among Washington blue-liners, suggesting that Boudreau may be shielding him from the best their opponents have to offer, and leaving the heavy defensive lifting to Tom Poti, big Shaone Morrisonn and bigger Jeff Schultz. With a relative +/- of 11.4 (2nd on the team), 23-year-old Schultz, a former 1st rounder may be an unsung hero on the Washington blue-line. Among regular D-men, Schultz also leads the Caps in blocked shots per 60 minutes at 5.6 and has the highest Corsi Rating (measuring the difference in shots on goal for and against while a given player is on the ice), at 7.1 among Capital defenders…

Ovechkin plays with All-World line-mates, generally teaming up with compatriot Alex Semin on the other wing, sandwiching Nicklas Backstrom, possibly the most overshadowed player in the game today…

this depth, in the forward lines as well as the back-line, and the solid goaltending provided by Varlamov, will propel the Washington Capitals to the top of the Eastern Conference in May and to the Stanley Cup Finals.”

Nice.

I also wanted to congratulate to Japers’ Rink on being ranked the top NHL Blog. I look forward to doing so in person next week.