Photo credit: Rob Carr

Nothing is going right for the Washington Capitals right now. But one of the biggest problems is clear: the misfortunes of Karl Alzner and John Carlson. Of the 14 goals the Caps have allowed this season, Carlson has been on the ice for nine of them and Alzner for eight. Until they were broken up at the start of third period, this was the team’s number one defensive pairing. That’s not how you win hockey games, something Washington has demonstrated.

“I have no idea,” Alzner said when asked what was going wrong for the two.

“We’re not getting the bounces, plays that I normally would do, an easy poke check — it’s happening for the both of us,” he added. “We weren’t contributing anything good to the team.”

One problem for Alzner and Carlson could be conditioning. Neither played during the lockout. Alzner chose to skate up in Calgary during the work stoppage while Carlson took the ice with a few fellow Capitals at Kettler. Skating three times a week, though, hardly simulates playing for an NHL team. Alzner insisted, however, that fitness is not the issue — at least for himself.

“I feel fine out there,” he said. “I don’t feel like I’m too tired. It’s definitely not conditioning.”

Alzner and Carlson have have played together for most of their professional careers, becoming good friends off the ice as well. They first became a pair in 2009 playing for the Hershey Bears. While they have been separated from time to time, the two have consistently been the Capitals’ number one pair the last two seasons. But Thursday night, they were on the ice for all four Canadiens goals before coach Adam Oates mercifully put an end to the duo. For the final frame, Alzner was paired with Mike Green while Carlson shared the blueline with Tom Poti. Alzner said that he was the one who told defensive coach Callie Johansson that something had to change.

“You can’t have two guys where things aren’t going their way together,” Alzner said after the game.

Head Coach Adam Oates agreed.

“They’ve been married to each other for a long time now,” Oates told reporters. “You also have to have the ability to play with someone else.

Oates insists, though, that the two will be back together in less than 24 hours when the Caps head to New Jersey to take on the Devils.

“They were very solid with each other last year and they know each other well,” he said.

The Caps are now 0-3 — their worst start in almost two decades. They have been outscored 14-6. Their penalty kill is at 69 percent. Some struggles were to be expected as the team adjusts to a new coach with a new system. With a lockout shortened season, though, a bad start could kill the team’s playoff chances. And the fans know that. Boos rained down at the Verizon Center for the second straight game. Midway through the third period, the arena was half empty, just like the lean years a decade ago. “Ted, I want a refund!” one fan yelled as the seconds ticked away.

“Embarrassing is almost the right term right now — pathetic is a better one,” forward Troy Brouwer said outside his locker. “I feel bad for the fans. I’d like to finish a game with at least 50 percent of the fans still in the stands. Their actions are completely warranted, booing us. We haven’t earned any of their respect, any of their passion or ambition. We have to turn something around, and we have to do it fast.”

Ovechpunch! Ovechpunch! (Photo credit: Jim McIsaac)

On Wednesday, the Washington Capitals will take on the New York Rangers in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The Caps haven’t faired well against New York this season, losing three out of four regular season games including 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts. In fact, the 7-0 shutout was so bad, Alex Ovechkin found it necessary to fight. However, that was then. This is now. Let’s take a look at the numbers to preview what should be an interesting matchup.

One of the benefits of sharing scoring chance data is that someone else will write the analysis for you, so if you haven’t checked out Blueshirt Banter’s Statistical Preview of the Caps/Rangers series I highly recommend it.

Based on the first practice before the playoffs, the line combos for the series should look like this:

All have performed well during even strength, putting at worst almost six out of every ten chances (SC%) in Washington’s favor and converting a fairly decent amount of them into goals (Convert%). The gaudy numbers of the Laich-Johansson-Chimera line comes at the expense of a small sample size: only about ten even strength minutes played together.

The “Sasha Whisperer” Jason Arnott should be kept along Semin, but Sturm on the second line is a surprise — at least to me. Those second and third lines are going to be crucial in this seven game series.

As for Washington’s defense, the Caps’ shutdown pair is better than New York’s shutdown pair.

At even strength when the score is tied, John Carlson and Karl Alzner come out way ahead of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi:

More than half of scoring chances (SC%) go in the Caps favor when Carlzner is on the ice, while the Rangers’ “best d-pair” doesn’t even break even.

It’s also not even close on the penalty kill:

So as strong as the Ranger’s defense is, it looks like Alzner and Carlson are better.

New York’s goaltending gives me some cause for concern and it is not because Lundqvist had eleven shutouts. It’s because he seems to have effectively neutralized what has been the Caps strength when it comes to scoring.

Take a quick look at why crashing the net is so important to beating Lundqvist. What I have done here is turned the NYR goals against on the road into a heat map, then superimposed where the Caps have scored their goals when at home.

There are A LOT of Washington goals scored in locations that King Henry has been adept at keeping out of the net. Pay particular attention to the red circles, which are goals by Ovechkin. After seeing that, you can understand why Washington’s secondary scorers will have to step up big time.

I put the chances of Washington winning at 57%, with the most likely scenario being a five or six game triumph.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.

Your new desktop background. Click to enlarge. (Photo credit: Greg Fiume)

The new-look Washington Capitals featuring Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm and Dennis Wideman took to the ice Tuesday night. After 61 minutes and 55 seconds of hockey, they had done exactly what the old team did only three days ago: came from behind and squeaked out a win against the New York Islanders, though it certainly it wasn’t how they originally expected to do it.

The Capitals controlled play early on, outshooting the Islanders 10-1 midway through first frame. Washington had a numerous quality chances in the period but Nathan Lawson — who came into the game with a record of 1-4-1 and a GAA of 4.56 — shut the door, and the game was scoreless after one period of play.

The second stanza was even more lopsided than the first for the Caps in terms of shots on goal — but not on the scoreboard. Just after the 10 minute mark of the period, the Islanders’ Matt Moulson finally netted the game’s first tally, scoring on a two-on-one odd man rush. But that would be all Washington netminder Michal Neuvirth would allow as he became impenetrable for the rest of the contest.

The third period looked grim for Caps fans as nothing seemed to be able to get past Lawson — that is, until the final minute of play. With just 48 seconds remaining and Neuvirth pulled, new Cap Arnott delivered a perfect pass to Brooks Laich in the crease. He chipped in the puck and just Laich that (See what I did there? It’s awful, I know.) we had ourselves a whole new ballgame.

In overtime, well, this happened:

Alex Ovechkin picked up the loose puck in his own zone and faked out Frans Nielsen. As Ovechkin blasted past the blue-line, Nielsen attempted to tackle the Great Eight. Undeterred, Ovi brushed him off using his brute strength. I think you know what happens next. Forehand. Backhand. Game over. Caps shock Isles, 2-1.

• Bruce Boudreau said before the game that, “this is our team for better or worse.” And let’s be real: for 59 minutes the Capitals looked like the same offensively challenged squad that they were before the trade deadline. However, the Caps never quit and in the end it all paid off as they scored the necessary clutch goals.
• Tuesday night, Jason Arnott showed why he was worth David Steckel and a second round pick in 2012. He has ice in his veins. Arnott’s savvy pass out of the corner to Laich insured the Capitals would walk out with at least one valuable point in the standings. It also helped them avoid another emotionally devastating shutout. The center, who helped the New Jersey Devils win a Stanley Cup in 2000 by scoring the series-ending goal, has been there and done that. This team desperately needed solid pros like him earlier in the season. His assist should help you forget about his horrendous four for 14 night in the faceoff circle.
• Laich’s goal was so sweet that it elicited a response on Twitter from Meet the Press host and noted Caps fan David Gregory.
• Alex Ovechkin‘s 25th goal of the year was also his ninth game-winning goal of the campaign. His eight shots on goal were also a game high. Tuesday night you all got a glimpse of the Ovi Caps fans know and love: the highly unstoppable, cannot-be-contained, celebrates-like-he-just-scored-for-the-first-time game-breaker. Please Alex, don’t leave them ever again. They need you.
• We do have to say this about the Capitals power play, which went oh for two tonight: if we wanted to see world class hockey players standing around on the ice, we’d buy a framed picture from NHL.com.
• Welcome to the team, Dennis Wideman. Wideman was on the ice for 11 even strength scoring chances — including both Capitals goals — and two on the power play. His stat line at the end of the night was impressive 26:44 of ice time, three shots, four hits, a plus-2 along with two blocked shots.
• Marco Sturm said he had “jello legs” before the game because of nerves. Sturm, who went from the waiver wire Saturday to the Capitals first line tonight, showed why he should be a valuable addition down the stretch: his speed. In his first game as a Cap, Sturm had a first period breakaway and two shots on goal. Plus, he was very “Rico Suave” in his first intermission interview with CSN.
• Arnott and Laich showed some great chemistry against New York. The pair was on the ice for nine Caps scoring chances, including Laich’s goal late in the 3rd. It shouldn’t come as a surprise as Laich has been the Capitals best scoring chance creator all season.
• Both of the ‘tenders, Nathan Lawson and Michal Neuvirth, were impressive. Lawson, who gave the Capitals fits all night, had 40 saves and wasn’t even named a star of the game. Graciously, we’ll even say he had little chance to stop both of the Capitals goals. Meanwhile, Neuvy was also brilliant, as his 28 saves kept the Capitals in the game when all hope might have been lost.
• “Carlzner” has really struggled of late, seeing an even strength scoring chance differential of minus-2, minus-7, minus-3, plus-2 and Tuesday’s minus-4. John Carlson’s awful cough-up in the second period also led to the Islanders only goal of the night. Are Caps fans’ precious rookies hitting a wall?
• Matt Hendricks was about five inches away from scoring “The Goal: Part Deux.” What can’t he do?
• Finally, Ian’s #antijinx appears to have magical powers.

Joe B. Suit of the Night. Magenta tie!

It’s official: Ovechkin is back to his old self. Time to get your Vuvuzelas ready because we’re partying like it’s 2010.

The new-look St. Louis Blues come to town on Thursday just a week after they acquired some new toys of their own. Won’t you join us? We’ll see you then.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland and Neil Greenberg, who was on the Sports Junkies yesterday.

After a miserable eight-game losing streak, the Caps are finally starting to see some puck bounces go their way and are 5-0-1 in their last six. Good times ahead? We’ll see, but this is sure better than losing.

The scoring chances showed us this was just a matter of time. Remember, I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

At even strength, the Caps put the scoring chances in their favor throughout the season, but when they failed to get the puck bounces to go their way it was a tough stretch of eight games. Once the bad luck started to even out, bringing their conversion percentage back to their season average, the Caps were able to right the ship:

Scoring chance % is the amount of chances-for out of total chances that go in Caps’ favor.
Convert % is goals scored off of scoring chances
Scoring chance save percentage is scoring chances against that did not turn into goals.

Virtually the same amount of chances are going in their favor (55.7% vs. 56.1%), but converting almost two and a half men more goals makes all the difference between winning five out of the last six or losing eight games in a row.

This week I decided to look at which skaters were making the plays on the scoring chances, meaning not just by being a passenger on the ice but actively creating the scoring chance – either by taking the shot or making the pass.

SCF = scoring chances for
%5v5 Indiv/%PP Indiv are the percentage of chances at 5v5/PP that the skater was directly responsible for – either by taking the shot themselves or making the primary assist.

Looking at this table, it should be no surprise Eric Fehr finally broke through and tallied two goals during the Winter Classic. Over half the scoring chances he is on the ice for during even strength this season are of his own design, and it’s almost the same on the power play. Could this be the end of Uno Seis que sienta en el banco?

More and more, it seems that Mathieu Perreault could be here for the long term. Playing soft minutes is certainly helping, but half of hockey is taking advantage of opportunity and MP85 is making the most of his. With the way he has been playing with linemates Semin & Laich, I could see GMGM rolling the dice in the post season with that as the second line– and strangely I could be OK with it if other needs are addressed.

The boys from Hershey — Andrew Gordon and especially Jay Beagle — brought some good mojo and gritty offense in front of the net during these last six games. When Beagle was on the ice, the Caps got over half their 5v5 chances as a direct result of his play – Andrew Gordon, just 26%. Perhaps that’s why Beagle was given a Winter Classic sweater?

DangerousAga% are the percentage of shots against (Shots on goal, goals scored and missed shots) that originate from “dangerous” areas on the ice, which is roughly a pie shaped wedge starting from the goal, extending out through the faceoff dots to the top of the circles.
QoC is Behind the Net‘s Quality of Competition metric, and is the average +/- of opponents faced. The higher the number, the more those opponents have scored.
OffZ% is the percentage of time that skater starts in the offensive zone.

Carlzner were one of my keys to the Caps winning the Winter Classic and they haven’t disappointed all season. They play a huge amount of minutes against some of the stiffest competition (QoC) that Caps’ opponents have to offer and allow only a minimum amount of shots that aren’t blocked to come from dangerous scoring areas.

Scott Hannan seems to need a little more time to settle in defensively, but allowing almost 2/3 of shots directed at net to come from dangerous scoring areas is something that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later — otherwise we might as well have just switched Flash to a blueliner instead of trading him.

I’ll admit Semyon Varlamov has looked really good these past few games, but mark me down for #TeamNeuvy until we start to see a few more games of consistency between periods from Varly. Either way, the rumors of the Caps getting a veteran goalie at the deadline need to stop — these two young netminders are more than capable of performing when it counts.

Ovi tackles his teammates after Mike Knuble's second period goal. (Photo credit: Dave Sandford)

Photo credit: Gregory Shamus

After a year of build-up and three glorious episodes of HBO’s 24/7, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins finally met at Heinz Field in front of 68,111 loud, screaming fans to compete in the 2011 Winter Classic. Much like the 39 games before and the 42 games to follow, this game counted the exact same amount in the standings: two points.

But both you and I know it meant waaaaaay more than that. You could see it in how the Caps played, celebrated and spoke after the game. This was the biggest game they had ever played in their NHL careers. And it showed.

At 8:17pm the first puck dropped. It would then take over twenty-two compelling game minutes to see the 2011 Classic’s first goal. In the second period, Marc-Andre Fleury made a routine stick save along the ice on Alex Ovechkin. Kris Letang then took the rebound and alertly flung the puck up ice where he found a streaking Evgeny Malkin. The Capitals’ defense, caught on a bad change, allowed Malkin to go in all alone on Semyon Varlamov. Malkin went five-hole and the the Penguins took a 1-0 lead.

But their one goal advantage – and Pens fans’ annoying waving of their moronic Terrible Towels – would be short-lived. After Alex Ovechkin drew a penalty on Max Talbot for holding three and a half minutes later, the entire Capitals powerplay unit crashed the net like their lives depended on it. Ageless wonder Mike Knuble managed to pitchfork the puck through Fleury’s legs during a scrum in front. Knuble’s ninth goal of the season, not only would tie the game up, it would also reinvigorate the team and also allow them to relax.

Nearly eight minutes later, in a rare stroke of good luck at even-strength, Marc-Andre Fleury misplayed a seemingly innocent dump-in behind the net. Marcus Johansson pounced on the mistake and hit Eric Fehr with a slick pass to the slot. Fehrsy then suavely deposited the puck into a yawning net where the Caps would take a 2-1 lead into the second intermission.

In the third period, both teams traded several scoring chances, until Eric Fehr uno seised Fluery on a breakaway and went top shelf. From there, the Caps played a trap (I can’t believe I wrote that) and expertly protected their lead until the clock ran out.

Yes, that noise is me fist-pumping. Caps beat the Pens 3-1.

• First, a question. What’s better than going up to our biggest rival’s city in masse, roaming their streets, taking over their restaurants and bars, yelling “Let’s Go Caps” at the top of our lungs, and then watching our hockey team kick the living bejeezus out of theirs on New Year’s Day? Um, nothing.
• I’m not getting too cocky about this one because the ice conditions clearly played a role. Still, you could make a convincing argument that this was one of the biggest wins in Capitals history. They desperately needed this game.
• John Erskine‘s first period bout with vespa-hater Mike Rupp was epic. Erskine, clearly unconcerned with his own health or well-being, recklessly exchanged haymakers with Rupp until his combatant asked out of the fight due to a dislodged contact. Yes. A dislodged contact. It really was a shame, because Erskine was about three punches away from giving Rupp a problem his optometrist couldn’t fix.

• Mike Knuble is the old, yellow horse glue that keeps this team together. The team took on his personality after his second period powerplay goal, and they never looked back.
• Eric Fehr is a true pro, and tonight his hustle and determination was what tipped the scales in Washington’s favor. Fehr, who at times was double-shifted, was on the ice for five chances for at even strength, and his second goal of the night sent Pens fans home in droves.
• Alex Ovechkin may not have scoared, but his presence was certainly felt. Just as Zbynek Michalek, whom the Russian Machine nearly checked through the glass in the first period.
• My immediate reaction when Jason Chimera defied the laws of physics and missed that easy wraparound goal: “Crosby, go expletive yourself.” I should have been mad at Chimera, but I cursed at Crosby. Force of habit? I don’t know. I confused myself.
• Semyon Varlamov sure likes the big stage, doesn’t he? If he can play like that for the next four months, the Caps should be in pretty good shape.
• Bruce Boudreau had this game figured out and turned in one of his best coaching jobs of his career. It would have been tempting to give tons of ice time to his studs, but he kept going to the grinders. Freaking Jay Beagle was on the ice nearly two minutes longer than Alex Semin. You had to play dump and chase to win this game. The Penguins never really figured that out.
• Would you believe that Carlzner limited Sidney Crosby’s line to only three chances at even strength and zip, zero, nada in the third period? That was huge.
• The Capitals outchanced the Penguins 23 to 18 overall, and 19 to 12 at even strength.

Tonight, the nasty goals won it. There was absolutely no finesse. There was nothing pretty about this game. This was Caps hockey at it’s best and I could not be more proud of these guys for the way they performed on National TV in front of millions of people.

I know it’s hard to think about right now, but the Capitals can’t party too long because Tuesday night the Tampa Bay Lightning are coming to town. And that’s an important divisional game. At stake: the same two points that were up for grabs tonight.

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg and Peter Hassett

The Caps blew out Tampa Bay 6 to nothing, and– just when we thought sitting Fleischmann was the answer the lines were clicking– we got more change. Admit it: you thought line combos were chosen using random ping pong ball selection. How else can you explain the constant Changing Of The Linemates?

This week we’ll take a quick look at how the top 6 line combos and blueline pairings are doing at even strength and how the goalies are doing overall, with respect to scoring chances. In the following weeks (as I get more comfortable with SQL) I will add goals scored for and against. For now it’s just scoring chances. I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

SCF = Scoring chances for
SCA = Scoring chances against

Top Six Forwards

The Cadillac of Caps top lines (Knuble-Backstrom-Ovechkin) is probably the cause of all the shuffling, but they get the job done when it comes to scoring chances, putting a little more than 6 out of every 10 in the Caps’ favor when the unit is on the ice. Swapping out Semin for Knuble lowers the scoring chance percentage, but there is no doubt it ratchets up the goals-for tallies. The Laich-MJ90-Semin line saw some nice chemistry during the 6-0 blowout of Tampa Bay. Maybe we’ll get a chance to see it again.

Defensive Pairings

You expect the reigning Plus/Minus leader in the NHL and the two-time Norris candidate to get things done on the defensive side, but Carlzner is stealing the show. Not only are they used by Coach Boudreau as his shutdown pair for the opposition’s top line, but they are making sure the scoring chances stay on the Caps’ side of the ledger.

Goalies

Semyon Varlamov seems to have healed his groin, putting the NHL back on notice as to why he changed his sweater number from 40 to 1.

His 5v5 scoring chance save percentage is stellar at .925 and his overall SC save% of .882 is well above the Mendoza line of .850. I had said earlier this year that Neuvirth deserved to be the number one goalie to start the season, now I think it is a dead heat.

Ovechkin is out of sorts. Does anyone know why? (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

Semin cooled off, Marcus Johansonn started to heat up, Ovechkin is un-Ovechkin-y, and we saw the Caps get shut out for the first time in almost a year. Quite an up-and-down week. Despite it all, scoring chances are once again preserved for posterity.

I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. As always, you can find the spreadsheet online.

Coach Boudreau used every line combo imaginable this week (except for the much ballyhooed DJ King-Steckel-Ovechkin line), so I thought we would look at expected scoring chance percentage (SC%). Scoring chance percentage is the amount of scoring chances-for (SCF) that go in the Caps favor when a particular player is on the ice. For example, if a skater is on the ice for 6 scoring chances-for and only 4 against his  SC% would be 60% (6 chances for divided by all 10 chances when on ice). If we know how often a player is deployed in the offensive zone, we can calculate their expected scoring chance percentage. Then it is simple subtraction: subtract the actual from the expected and we can see each player’s true efficiency. All numbers are for even strength only.

TOI = Time on ice
SCF = Scoring chances for
OffZone% = Offensive zone start percentage
ExpSC% = Expected scoring chance percentage
Delta = Actual SC% – Expected SC%
Dangerous% = Shots directed at net (including missed and blocked shots) that come from dangerous scoring areas. For forwards I look at shots for, for defensemen shots against.

Forwards

The reason for my man-crush on Boyd Gordon should be clear by now, but if it isn’t consider that he starts in the offensive zone only 43% of the time. He should have an expected scoring chance percentage of 47%, but instead it is second highest among forwards at 57%. In less math-speak, he is doing way better than he should when it comes to putting scoring chances in the Caps’ favor. And by “way better” I mean a team best.

Whiskey tango foxtrot Ovechkin? I wish I had last year’s data as a reference, but I am sure we can agree: something’s not right. You would think he would be driving the Caps’ chances in their favor (at least as much as Boyd Gordon or Tomas Fleischmann) but it just seems like he is struggling. Feel free to give your thoughts as to why in the comments. Creativity counts.

Marcus Johansonn is starting to trend in the right direction, and he leads the Caps with scoring chances from dangerous areas. As HCBB’s trust in him grows and he gets more time with better teammates, look for his boxcar stats to uptrend as well.

Defensemen

Carlzner is starting to get stuff done. They are driving scoring chances in the right direction, and keeping shots-against from dangerous scoring areas to respectable levels.

John Erskine, despite being used mostly in the defensive zone, is also doing his part to exceed expectations in regards to scoring chances.

Tom Poti looks to be struggling with his injury even when he is on the ice. Starting 6 out of every 10 times in the offensive zone should allow him to keep the puck going in the right direction, but instead he has the worst delta on the team. Get well soon, Poti.

Goalies

Not the best of weeks for Braden Holtby where bad play and soft goals got him pulled after against ATL. That 5v5 scoring chance save percentage is atrocious, despite the Caps defense giving him better support on shots coming from dangerous scoring areas, so don’t be surprised if he is sent back down to Hershey. Good news is you can still follow him on our sister site, Sweetest Hockey on Earth.

A year ago, you might have known Neil Greenberg only for his razor-sharp analysis on 5ive Hole, but the most controversial acquisition during the season last year might have been Neil’s signing with RMNB.  Since then, he’s become the Examiner’s hockey photographer of record, the Washington Post’s hockey statistics nerd, and Samantha Casey’s new BFF.

Capitals Insider posted Neil’s first file today, an incisive piece comparing Karl Alzner and John Carlson to their predecessors.  With the exception of the Carlzner portmanteau, it’s a huge success.  Please, go read the piece and leave him some love in the comments.

No excuse not to read the article when there’s a link this big.

Congratulations, Neil.  Please don’t forget the little people.