Complaining about officiating is an unmistakable sign of a poor sport. Only a terrible sportsman blames the referees, but let’s get real: the Caps are getting screwed on penalties against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’m not here to spread conspiracy theories or accuse officials of malpractice; I’ve just got some cold, hard facts that may blow your mind.

Our friend Addison Huber did some number crunching on our behalf and turned up some exciting finds.

Recently, Caps PR maven Nate Ewell tweeted some interesting statistics regarding the discrepancy between penalties for and against the Capitals in games against the Penguins. Nate’s count came to 73 penalties against the Caps versus 43 against the Penguins in the last 14 games the two teams have played against each other. This information made me wonder just how unusual these numbers were compared to some sort of “average” data set.

In order to come up with an average to compare the Caps-Pens series against, I compiled two different sets of data. The first comparison was the Caps against several other teams in 14 game sets. In order to keep the time period the same as the Caps-Pens set, I limited the team selection to Eastern Conference teams, since they play with much more frequency. All the Eastern Conference teams (less Pittsburgh and Washington) were arranged in alphabetical order and numbered. I then used www.random.org to select three of those teams, which ended up being New Jersey, New York Rangers, and Tampa Bay. Penalty statistics for the last 14 games against each of those teams were taken from www.espn.com. Penalties for each team in each series were summed, then averaged to give an average for-and-against number, percent of penalties called, and average penalties called per game. That action yielded the following results: in a 14 game series against a random team, the Capitals would be expected to be called for 67 penalties, while their opponent would be called for 73 (48% and 52% of total penalties, respectively). Penalties-per-game were be 4.81 for the Caps and and 5.19 for their opponents. On average, there were 140 total penalties called in the series.

To provide another data point I again used www.random.org to select 14 games from the last 240 games played (the same period as the last 14 games against Pittsburgh) and looked at the penalty data for that random “series.” Game 1 was the first game of the 2007-8 season and game 240 was the most recent game against Calgary. The random 14 game series showed that the Caps should be expected to be whistled for 72 penalties, while their opponents would be whistled for 63 (53% and 47% of total penalties, respectively). Penalties-per-game would be 5.14 for the Caps and 4.5 for their opponents. On average, there were 135 total penalties called in the series. With a variance of about only 5% between the two data sets, I would say these numbers are a pretty accurate representation of the Caps’ propensity to be called for and draw penalties.

Comparing these penalty numbers to the penalty numbers from the Penguins “series” that Nate referenced led to some interesting results. At first glace at Nate’s Tweet, I would have guessed that the Caps were being called for penalties at a higher rate than normal. However, in a 14 game series, we would expect the Capitals to be called for 70 penalties, whereas in the Pens series they were called for 73, only a 5% increase and well within standard deviation. Looking at the penalties called on the Penguins, however, yields a much more unexpected result. While we expect the Pens to also be called for about 70 penalties, they were only called for 43, a 37% decrease, way outside a reasonable margin of error. To find the probability of this few penalties being called against the Penguins I plugged the numbers into the Poisson distribution. [Ed. note - see Appendix A below for more information regarding Poisson.] According to that function, the probability of the Pens being called for only 43 penalties is .01437%. Not that I am a frequent wearer of aluminum millinery, but it is clear that, for whatever reason, the referees are putting away their whistles against the Penguins when they play the Caps but continuing to call the Caps for penalties at the same rate. Alternatively, it could be argued that the Penguins, for some reason, play much more disciplined hockey against the Capitals. No matter what the explanation, it is obvious that the Caps should always practice their penalty kill before they play the Penguins.

For everyone who blacked out when the numbers came, the proliferations of Caps’ penalties against the Pens stretches credulity.  We could spend hours guessing why the Penguins receive preferential treatment while the Capitals get the lash, or we could cast aspersions against the zebras, or we could claim the the game is fixed.  But we will do none of that.

The Capitals will win or lose on their merit.  Nothing else.  The officials are imbued with the trust of the game, and if that trust is abused, so be it.  It is beyond our ability to fix.  Until the last horn blows, it is up to the team — and no other–  to determine its own fate.

We leave you now with further ruminations on the Poisson distribution, as expounded by noted philologians Richard Bell, Michael Bivins, and Ronald DeVoe.

What follows is a peek into a disturbed mind, wherein the machinations of p-values and standard deviations are comprehended with ease.  Abandon all hope, ye who read on, of understanding what Stevie K now lays at your feet; let the numbers wash over you and ease you into a narcotic stupor.  Trip the light fantastic amidst a really big spreadsheet.   I promise to bold the important stuff that makes sense to normal human beings.

I took the Standings page from ESPN and pasted it into a JMP data table, then manually input simulated results for every game. Simulated results required that the Caps win, and that for every other game, whichever team had more points going into the game would lose in regulation. The only exception is a game between Chicago and Phoenix on 3/23, where they have the same point total. Phoenix gets simulated to win this game because Chicago has more games remaining.

The columns at the end had JMP formulas in them.

• GAMES REMAINING is just 82 – today’s GP – games they’ve played so far in the simulation.
• POINTS UPDATED is PTS + all of the simulated game results so far
• Available Points is 2*GAMES REMAINING
• Can beat or tie Caps? is if (Available Points >= Caps(POINTS UPDATED)-OtherTeam's(POINTS UPDATED),1,0)

So each day of the remaining schedule I would make a new column, simulate the results, and update the 4 columns at the end. Once there were no more teams with a 1 in the last column, the Caps had won the Presidents’  Trophy. It occurs immediately at the end of the Ottawa game, where the Caps have 76GP and 114PTS. Chicago has 74GP and 97PTS.

Let’s go Caps.

Would you trust this man with your statistics?

You can view Stevie K’s inane spreadsheet here.

Okay, you can keep reading again.  Here’s what this means: if the Caps win every game, and all the other contenders lose every game, the soonest the Caps could win the Prez is after the March 30th game against the Senators (which we’ll be attending).  The god of statistics, MC Stephen Hawking, deems this unlikely.  Still, the projections favor the Caps to win first seed for the first time ever.

Let’s all take a moment to thank Stevie K. for giving us the most incomprehensible report since the last time he contributed to the blog.  (We kid because we love, K.  This is awesome.  Chipotle is on me next time!)

If the Caps win tonight, they will break the team’s record for consecutive games won (10, by the 83-84 Caps). They will also break the Bruins’ record for consecutive games lost (8, by the 56 Bruins). The Caps team is playing at their acme right now, whereas the Bruins are hoping they’ve already hit rock bottom. What does this portend for tonight’s game?

Well, if you flip a coin, your chances of getting heads are the same from one toss to another. Ideally, all binary competitions (one winner and one loser) would be like this. If the principle could be extended to sports, the Caps would likely win tonight just because they are the better team objectively. But first we much deal with a few others factors, and also, we must maul intelligent statistical theory until the results please us.  Please join us behind the jump.

I. Advantages

Momentum. The Caps have momentum of the winning kind, the Bruins of the losing. At this risk of spurring the ire of physics nerds, inertia dictates that teams that suck will continue to suck.  Put another way: the Caps might win tonight because they’re in the habit of winning. The last two games could have easily been lost if not for some unquantifiable, mystical winning-ness. Maybe the guys are visualizing their victory and using the power of positive thought to actualize it. Maybe Bruce Boudreau is reaping the benefits of sage training.  Either way, the Caps are in the mode to win.

Daddy. The Caps’ dads have joined them on their trip up to New England. Right now, they’re all getting soused at the Sam Adams brewery tour. In most people’s experience, a drunk father would criticize you about your hair, clothes, video-gaming habits, career prospects, handshake firmness, political orientation, or car maintenance skills. But the Washington Capitals are world-class athletes whose fathers must be immeasurably proud. The good tiding shared by their forebearers may lift the Caps to a win.

The Doors. Craig Laughlin said that his winning ’84 team used to get focused by listening to The Doors’ “Break on Through to the Other Side”. Well, at the risk of influencing tonight’s result…

II. Disadvantages

“They’re due.” This is the flip side of the momentum argument above, and it too is characterized by a stunning lack of logic. The Bruins haven’t lost this long since the fifties; they’re not going to blow it now. The Caps have won as many as they can, it’s time to let the streak die a noble death. In the coin-toss scenario, that the Bruins have lost eight straight would not affect the chances of losing the next match. But hockey ain’t coin tossing. In this case, the “head” side of the coin is furiously motivated to win, whereas the “tails” side just sort expects it to happen. The further a team descends into a streak of either kind, the less likely it seems they will continue.

Barely squeaking by. Some of the last ten games have been blowouts. Doubling up over the Pens, for example, felt like a particularly well formed blowout. But the games against the Panthers and Lightning have found the Caps playing not at their peak, but managing to eke out a win somehow. If your average winning margin decreases, you’re trending towards imminent loss. Will tonight find the Capitals on the wrong side of the scoreboard for the first time in over a month?

Records are records for a reason. They’re hard to break. Is anyone closing in on Cal Ripken’s consecutive games played record? No one knows why, but some force kept the Red Sox away from winning the World Series for 86 years. Let’s name that force excellence.  To win tonight the Caps must prove their excellence exceeds the opposing force presented by the record. To lose tonight the Bruins must be beyond excellent at losing.  Tonight’s decision is not which his the better team, but which team’s excellence is proportionately greater than the excellence of its record?

Confused yet?  Good.  Me, too.  I’m just making this up as I go along.  Drink something brown and stored in a barrel.  It’ll start making more sense when you’re as besotted as “Grandpa Nasty” Schultz.

III. Conclusions

We’d like to think that Caps will win tonight’s game because they’ve got momentum.  But to believe that a previous appointment will affect a new appointment is known as the gambler’s fallacy; however, we all believe that momentum counts for something in sports– even if we cannot quantify it. Even if the influence of the last win on the next game is marginal, we admit it exists. Contrapositively, we must also admit the presence of the “being due” principle, the efficacy of which is probably just as marginal. This entire paragraph has been a cop-out, and I’ve scammed you into reading it.

Here’s the bottom line. I’m wearing the damned shirt (8-0-0).

We’re winning this one. The team has the attitude, fundamentals, and familial support needed to break a record.  My prediction to blogiarch Ian Oland is a 4-3 win (GWG by Semin) for the Caps. Ian predicts a 9-0 win (GWG by Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin, Ovechkin).  That’s right: the fabled triple hat trick.