Ovi reacts after being slashed by Brad Richards in the third period of game three. (Photo credit: Bruce Bennett)

A few summers ago, Alex Ovechkin did an interview with Mike Vogel where he slouched. I didn’t think it was a big deal. A few screenshots later, Ovi’s bulging belly was the topic du jour and commenters everywhere opined about the Russian machine’s new chubbiness. The whole Fat Gate thing was ridiculous to me, because if you’ve ever seen Ovechkin, you’ve noticed how strong his core area is. It sticks out past his chest. It’s one of the reasons why Ovechkin’s such a physical player and has such explosiveness in his strides.

But since Ovechkin absorbed a crushing hip check from Anton Stralman to his leg, hip, and core in the first period of game three, he hasn’t been quite the same player.

When the check happened, I didn’t think much of it. Ovi takes a hundred blows like this every season, and usually he skates right through it. After this hit, however, Ovi struggled to get up, labored to his skates, and when he winded up to shoot later in the shift, his wrist shot lacked its normal zip.

Since the hit, Ovechkin has zero points, three shots on goal, and two hits. He has been a non-factor in the last five periods. In the two games before that, Ovechkin had one goal, one assist, 12 shots, and 12 hits. That’s a big difference in play.

Of course, Ovi’s struggles could easily be the result of other things. In games one and two, when Washington got the final line change, Ovechkin was matched up against Dan Girardi just 73.7% of the time. In games three and four in Manhattan, Ovechkin was matched by Girardi 80% of the time. Tactics have surely changed as well, and the Caps spent 2 more minutes killing penalties (when Ovi is not on ice) in games three and four.

While there are a number of factors that could explain Ovi’s lack of luster in New York, a guy who should know, defenseman Ryan McDonagh, said Ovechkin looked “tired.”

Ovechkin takes a lot of punishment. Brad Richards slashed him at the end of game three (see the headline photo). Taylor Pyatt nailed Ovi at center ice in the first period of game four.

Also in game four, Girardi hit Ovechkin sturdily along the boards.

That’s not a complete list. Ovechkin’s been hit a lot. Playing him physically is certainly the Rangers’ game plan, and it appears to be working. It is possible Ovechkin is playing through some pain, and he may have a real injury we won’t know about until locker clear-out day. Maybe not. Either way, it’s apparent that Ovi has not been at 100% in the last two games, and the Caps depend on him dearly to succeed.

There was a point during the Capitals’ 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers when it seemed like victory was within reach. That moment came at the close of the second period.

Brooks Laich skated the puck into the Rangers’ zone with ten seconds left to go. He had a decision to make. Leading a 3-on-2 break in the closing seconds, he could have either pulled up and shot the puck from the perimeter, hoping for Jason Chimera to convert the rebound, or he could send a lateral pass over to the Capitals leading scorer, Alex Ovechkin, and see what magic he could make.

Instead, Laich opted for option C: a high-risk, high-reward hailmary saucer pass to Jason Chimera that would have to travel over two defenders’ sticks and somehow find the tape of his stick.

He chose C, and he made it work. Let’s review.

Laich believes Chimera can win a foot race against Dan Girardi…

…And lofts a saucer pass over Marc’s Staal’s stick.

Unreal.

Girardi might think he’s got this…

… but seriously, you guys…

The pass exceeds Girardi reach. It’s placed perfectly. All up to Chimera now.  

The puck lands right in front of Chimera…

… and hops onto the heel of his stick.

Chimera one-times the puck…

And scores though Lundqvist’s five-hole.

Just how Dale drew it up!

Torts is not happy. (Photo credit: Puck Buddys)

It was Chimera’s third goal in six career playoff games against Lundqvist (Thanks, Neil).

Video of the Chimera Goal

Mike Green: picking the right time to play the best hockey of his life.

Shut the book on the quarterfinal series between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals. In just five (not that short) games, the Caps sent the Rangers to an early vacation and a hot shave. This is the first Caps playoff series since the lockout (and the first of Bruce Boudreau’s career) that has not gone to a full seven games.

For the first time in the series, a goal was scored in the first period. While on the powerplay, Mike Green caught his own rebound and used Dan Girardi as a backboard for the game’s first score. Scott Hannan stretched a pass to Alex Ovechkin in the second, who then beat Henrik Lundqvist on the backhand. Alex Semin’s one-timer off Marcus Johansson made the score 3-0, which should have been the final. But then this happened:

About a minute later, Wojtek Wolski finally got one past Michal Neuvirth. Oh well. Caps beat Rangers 3-1. Series score: 4-1. The Capitals advance to the next round, but first comes a few days of well deserved rest.

• Michal Neuvirth was scant seconds away from his second shutout of the series before Wolksi got one through. For a player unknown to many before this year and mocked by another coach on pay-cable earlier this season, Neuvirth acquitted himself exceptionally well in five games. If there’s one goalie in the NHL who has distinguished himself in the postseason, it’s the babyface wearing red in the Washington net.
• The New York Rangers are a good hockey team. They were able to lick the Capitals righteously two times during the regular season. But the playoffs are a crucible whereby teams’ resolves are tested, and the Rags proved not to be made of sterner stuff after all. They mounted little offense, were flatly out-coached, and resorted to cheap thuggery when frustrated. But…
• Henrik Lundqvist is a mensch. The King was a giant presence in the New York net: poised and precise. Beating him in five games is a feather in the Capitals’ cap, but that doesn’t belittle Lundqvist’s talent or effort.
• Verizon Center fans are loud. Maybe it’s time to come up with some more creative cheers though. Share your ideas below. Here’s mine: N-A-S-T-Y! He ain’t got no alibi!
• Mike Green caught a tasty puck in or around the ear-cular region and did not play another shift. For a fellow who had a point in every game of the series but has been recovering from a concussion, this is a troubling setback. Green did return to the bench, and Bruce Boudreau insists that he could have played him, so we’re encouraged. At least Mike will have a long time to recover before next game.

• Once again revisiting the curious axiom, the Capitals’ best players were their best players today. Mike Green, Alex Semin, and Alex Ovechkin executed MISSION: SCOAR MOAR GOALS with aplomb. How scary is this team when they play up to par? Lord Stanley scary.
• Meanwhile, Nick Backstrom is still scoreless since March 6th, going at least 22 scoring chances without converting. Snakebit doesn’t do this drought justice, it’s more like BasiliskfromHarryPotterandtheChamberofSecrets-bit.
• Who went 80% (12 of 15) on the faceoff dot AND leads the team in facial hair? Bookish Boyd Gordon, who really shoulda combined with Matt Bradley for a goal or ten today.
• Two goals (the Caps’ and Rangers’ first) were followed by some Rags-initiated brawling. According to Darren “Danger” Dreger, Dan Girardi dislocated his finger when he punched Brooks Laich in the first of those scrums. Instant karma’s gonna get ya.

Joe B's suit of the night

The Capitals won this short series because they played their brand of hockey: getting pucks deep in the offensive zone, cycling until the defense got nauseated, crashing the net, and generally being bad asses in their own zone. On the other hand, the Rangers had neither their signature toughness behind the goal line or any offensive threat tonight, and that might have made all the difference. Those extended shifts in the OZ early on set a tone of this game that never quit. A triumphant and exuberant win for a team that badly needed an early victory in the first round.

And that’s the story of the quarterfinals. We don’t know yet who our second round opponent will be, but we know we’ll have a rested and focused team ready to face them. We may yet see the return of Mike Knuble (hand) or Dennis Wideman (leg) or Tom Poti (jkjkjktotallynotcomingback). But first: downtime. Let’s put to rest the Madison Square Garden drama, the Sean Avery ad hominem attacks, the hay-making hack pieces about Boudreau’s job security or the Alexes’ playoff production.

Four down. On to the next round.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland and we totally ripped off some of Neil’s tweets, too.

Ovechpunch! Ovechpunch! (Photo credit: Jim McIsaac)

On Wednesday, the Washington Capitals will take on the New York Rangers in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The Caps haven’t faired well against New York this season, losing three out of four regular season games including 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts. In fact, the 7-0 shutout was so bad, Alex Ovechkin found it necessary to fight. However, that was then. This is now. Let’s take a look at the numbers to preview what should be an interesting matchup.

One of the benefits of sharing scoring chance data is that someone else will write the analysis for you, so if you haven’t checked out Blueshirt Banter’s Statistical Preview of the Caps/Rangers series I highly recommend it.

Based on the first practice before the playoffs, the line combos for the series should look like this:

All have performed well during even strength, putting at worst almost six out of every ten chances (SC%) in Washington’s favor and converting a fairly decent amount of them into goals (Convert%). The gaudy numbers of the Laich-Johansson-Chimera line comes at the expense of a small sample size: only about ten even strength minutes played together.

The “Sasha Whisperer” Jason Arnott should be kept along Semin, but Sturm on the second line is a surprise — at least to me. Those second and third lines are going to be crucial in this seven game series.

As for Washington’s defense, the Caps’ shutdown pair is better than New York’s shutdown pair.

At even strength when the score is tied, John Carlson and Karl Alzner come out way ahead of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi:

More than half of scoring chances (SC%) go in the Caps favor when Carlzner is on the ice, while the Rangers’ “best d-pair” doesn’t even break even.

It’s also not even close on the penalty kill:

So as strong as the Ranger’s defense is, it looks like Alzner and Carlson are better.

New York’s goaltending gives me some cause for concern and it is not because Lundqvist had eleven shutouts. It’s because he seems to have effectively neutralized what has been the Caps strength when it comes to scoring.

Take a quick look at why crashing the net is so important to beating Lundqvist. What I have done here is turned the NYR goals against on the road into a heat map, then superimposed where the Caps have scored their goals when at home.

There are A LOT of Washington goals scored in locations that King Henry has been adept at keeping out of the net. Pay particular attention to the red circles, which are goals by Ovechkin. After seeing that, you can understand why Washington’s secondary scorers will have to step up big time.

I put the chances of Washington winning at 57%, with the most likely scenario being a five or six game triumph.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.