David Backes. (Photo credit: Jamie Sabau)

Doug Johnson of the PuckBuddys writes. Follow @PuckBuddys on Twitter.

The Unhappy and Unfunny Edition

The Pre-Game Practice

So. Anything happen over your holiday weekend?

Oof. Coach Juggles was jiggled out of the Caps hierarchy sometime late last week, so go the reports. But those who wielded the ax only announced it Monday morning. As if on Sunday we didn’t suspect our Regent would be decapitated; or that on Monday, after the quartering, they would all just expect us to blandly melt back into the blah-blah of our desperate little lives.

There’s been plenty of blah online in the last 36 hours, and in general on the Caps bench this season. Fine. But do not number us, your humble PuckBuddys, as among those celebrating the call for Boudreau’s head.

It is the right of every sovereign to decapitate those they wish…or at least was, in Elizabeth’s days. But who are we kidding? Today, it’s the unquestioned right of every sovereign owner of an NHL franchise – your Majesty – to chop off the head of any servant they see fit. Assuming they can buy out their contract.

Nobody’s Hot or Not Today

We just don’t care about our “clever” format tonight, listing players to watch for or conditions to be concerned about, all wrapped in a clever gumball cellophane. We now only have a growing list of worries, some of which we’ll enumerate, some you can fill in the blanks.

• Who’s #1? We saw plenty of juggling on the lines this season; and last, as Coach Mustard struggled to find the magic combination. We say: Caps, put your first line first: Semin, Backstrom and Ovechkin. Loose them on the ice and see what they can do. Do not hobble them with D-strategems they just haven’t adopted. Two games. See what they do. If they don’t do, you begin to have your larger answer.
• Confidence in the Net. We’ve not felt either Tomas Vokoun or Michal Neuvirth have performed to their abilities this season. Blame anything – just fix it. Vokoun is, without exception, an elite NHL goaltender in his prime. Neuvy has mad skills. Either of them is quality, but neither has performed well. Coach Hunter: pick one, give him a try, and let him and your entire team know you have confidence in them.
• D-Train. What’s been with the juggling on this line lately? Dennis Wideman and Roman Hamrlik? Are you trying to prove something to somebody (i.e., those who have written the checks?) Stop it. Tinker with the D a little, but not constantly. That’s, in part, how other teams capitalize on our flat-footed act – you need players who know how to read each other, and have been through this before. Repeat: Stop it. Pick a D and commit. That, or just go home.
• 8-10. Anyone waking up early and rubbing their eyes in an Ambien haze repeat after me: the Blues are 8 for 10 in the last 10 games. The Wings? Pittsburgh? Calgary? the Bolts? All falling before the Blues. And consider more: the Wings are on one of the hottest of hot streaks going. The Penguins (*barf*) are up to their old winning ways. Tampa is within one point of pwning us.
• The Stars Come Out. New coach, new era. Doesn’t mean new performance, but we do expect that every Capital who can draw laces on his skates will be performing at his very, very best on Tuesday. And Thursday. And Saturday. Coach Hunter, given his checkered past, we expect will not hesitate to put his boot in the ass of any underperforming Capital. And, for the moment, we expect his Most Gracious Monarch will consent to this treatment. But not, we expect, for long. For ultimately, many of the players hold serious money cards. Coaches are – tragically – expendable. Star players aren’t.
• Hello Friends, Old and New. Jason Arnott – who we said should NOT HAVE BEEN RELEASED- is doing just fine in St. Louis, thank you very much, at 4G, 6A and a +10. Jerk. Mind also that David Backes (9-16-+6) and consistent pest Matt D’Agonstini (5-4-+12) have been screwing things up for opponents of late. That and Jaroslav Halak (just 49 GA this season) in the net makes for a tough night. That and some guy who should be hosting his own restaurant, Pietrangelo or something, are making a muss of the ice lately.
• East St. Louis Toodle-Oo. We are ready to say Toodle-Oo to this last two week period, and ready to see the Blues in defeat in our rear-view mirror. New coach = new mirror. We’re looking ahead, and ready to put you this behind us.

The Shoot Out

We’ve actually read a fair amount of sane commentary about Coach Boudreau’s tenure of the Capitals…amid the tides of bile rushing in and out along our coastline. Was Bruce no longer what the squad respected? Did the ‘players coach’ become too close to effectively lower the boom? Do the problems lie with the coaching staff, the head office, or the players themselves? And who will we rush to blame when the Caps again fall into a slump, which inevitably, they will – precisely because every team does?

No. Nobody really wants to engage on this. It’s ‘Goodbye Bruce’, and ‘Hello Hunter!’

We welcome Coach Hunter, and wish him all the very best.

But Coach: beware the unanswered questions. It is precisely those that will devour you in the future. Just look at your predecessor.

The Caps need for a center resolved itself a little when Tomas Fleischmann signed a one-year, $2.6 million contract a day before his arbitration hearing on July 27th. Couple that with George McPhee stating that he was prepared to go into the season with the team they have, and that makes it clear the Caps will look within the organization to fill their need for a much-needed pivot in the long term.

One of those options, 2009 first rounder Marcus Johansson, appears to need more time to adjust to the North American game, while 2010 first round pick Evgeny Kuznetsov needs another Russian spy swap to play out his 2-year KHL contract. That leaves “undersized, but feisty” Mathieu Perreault – who has had a lot of success at the AHL level with the defending Calder Cup Champions Hershey Bears.

Our question is: Will Matty P’s success in the AHL translate enough to sustain him at the NHL level?

Perreault is a quick and shifty skater who is a slick playmaker with the puck.  The Drummondville, Quebec native racked up 4 goals and 9 points in his first 21 NHL games this season.

While his lack of size may always be an issue, there is no questioning Perreault’s talent. He is potential second line centerman, whose quickness and creativity is suited greatly for the new NHL, though increased muscle mass wouldn’t hurt. (Hockey’s Future)

It seems that any review of Perreault’s play is often preceded by a form of “lacks size.” However, as Puck Prospectus correctly points out:

Small players are called “too small for the NHL” en masse, and the ones who do not pan out are held up as proof. This completely ignores the small players that do succeed in the NHL, and it completely ignores the fact that many large players don’t pan out either. Why are the hulking duds not said to be “too big for the NHL”? It’s a post-hoc rationalization; if a small player doesn’t succeed in the NHL, his size is used as a reason. But the professionals are unable to predict it before the fact.

Physical presence will always be an issue for Perreault – fairly or not. If we look at performance as an equation of Ability * Opportunity, this fact alone could reduce Perreault to a part time 3rd line center who eventually becomes a career AHLer. Also, if we observe Perry’s last 13 games in the NHL, an argument could be made that he was physically drained from going against bigger competition.

Looking at his AHL & NHL contributions we can draw some more conclusions.

Season    Age Team  Lg   GP  G   A   PTS
2008-09    21 HBH   AHL  77  11  39  50
2009-10    22 HBH   AHL  56  16  34  50
2009-10    22 WSH   NHL  21   4   5   9

What we see is Perreault’s Points Per Game drop from .75 during his two years in Hershey to .43 at the NHL level (~42% drop) while his even strength goals per game staying relatively constant (15 ES Goals in 133 AHL games vs. 3 in 21 games at NHL level). Based on Behind The Net’s study of league difficulty for the largest NHL feeder leagues, retaining 44% of AHL production to the NHL level is what one should expect.  Therefore, Perreault is at the average.

This would land Perry somewhere between 27 – 35 points for an 82 game NHL schedule in his second year, similar to the sophomore seasons of Peter Regin, Antoine Vermette, Alex Steen and David Backes. Third line centers – sure. Second line pivots for a Cup caliber team? Not likely.

Plus, since Perreault would be moving from Hershey’s 2nd line with some PP time to mostly 3rd line play in the NHL, his numbers could take even more of a hit. For instance, it won’t be often he gets to start in the offensive zone more than any other pivot except for Nicklas Backstrom against pretty weak competition.

Mathieu did make the most of his line time last year with Eric Fehr however, causing a 12% jump in Fehr’s CORSI when they were together on the ice. Making a scoring threat like Fehr better in regards to puck possession is certainly a step towards being a legitimate NHL talent. But looking at some comparables to Perreault based on his first season tempers those expectations a bit:

1. Jeff Taffe scored .90 Pts per game first two years in AHL which translated to 7 seasons at the NHL level, playing 174 games tallying 44 points – for his career.
2. Riku Haul scored .46 Pts per game first two years in AHL only to have that shrink to .14 per game at the NHL level. He played a total of 92 NHL games in three years.
3. Players like Benn Ferriero (.86 Pts/Gm in AHL -> .14 in NHL) , Andreas Thuresson (.4o -> .14) and Brad Marchand (.81 -> .05) all saw their production dwindle in their NHL debut seasons.

The fact that Perreault can forecheck and has shown spurts of being able to play “bigger” (6 points in his first 8 NHL games) says he probably has more upside than those with similar stats – even causing some to compare him to “late bloomers” like Marty St. Louis or Danny Briere. It’s worth noting though, that both of those players dominated AHL competition to a much greater degree than Perreault. St. Louis averaged 1.2 points per game in the AHL while Briere averaged 1.28 points per game – showing us a much higher ceiling for production than Perreault.

As you can see, the arguments for and against Matty P’s success in the NHL are both with merit. On one hand, we have an AHL scorer with some upside who makes a legitimate NHL threat like Eric Fehr better when they are paired. On the other we have an undersized 6th round pick (a 2nd rounder has less than a 30% chance to develop into a player who will play at least 150 games) who’s scoring droughts will be blamed for being physically unable to compete at the NHL level.

So that’s where you guys come in.  Where do you stand?  Are the stats simply against Perreault becoming a long or short term solution at center or will he be the next Marty St. Louis or Danny Briere? Let us know in the comments.