Washington Post’s Katie Carrera observed,

After his first fight in Washington, it’s hard to imagine many teams will want to take many liberties against the Capitals this season when King has dressed for a game.

This is the good-as-gospel rationale about enforcers we keep hearing: by virtue of having one on the roster, our guys won’t get smacked around quite so much. At the risk of echoing  a lovely piece by Stephen Pepper on Japers’ Rink last year, I just don’t see it.

Think about it rationally. Much like Warren G and Nate Dogg, an enforcer must regulate. In order to regulate, however, there must be something- someone- to regulate. That means someone on the other team must be acting naughty- getting up in Sasha’s grill, snowing Varlamov, or calling Jeff Schultz unkind names. That’s when, with 16 in the clip and one in the hole, D.J. King hops over the boards and makes some bodies turn cold.

But that’s just a reaction. In this story, Ovechkin’s noggin has already merged with the dashers, and there’s already a Mike Green-shaped stain on the glass. King’s only job at that point is retribution. King having suited up didn’t stop that from happening, but at least he’s here to spill a pint of the other guy’s blood.

The argument of enforcer-as-deterrent is unfounded. Enforcers don’t dissuade the other team from thuggery, they perpetuate it. They escalate it. Because like Brashear before him, King’s paycheck is implicitly tied to the violence he can deliver. If the fight doesn’t come to him, he’ll go to it– sort of like he did with Thornton. Who’s the thug in that story?

D.J. King averaged just 5:29 on the ice during his time with the Blues.  Compared with the 09-10 Caps, he’d rank at the very bottom of ice time. And in addition to his admittedly awesome fighting prowess, King doesn’t really have the hallmarks of a well rounded player.  He’s not like my hero, Chris Simon. King isn’t going to lead the team in goals like Simon did in 99-00, he’s just going to lead the team in penalty minutes (like Simon also did 99-00).

Maybe I’m just being grumpy. Please tell me if I am. I just didn’t see the D.J. King-sized hole on the Caps roster. And maybe D.J. will do something terrific in the coming months that will put me as deep in the tank for him as I am for Matt Bradley†. But was the team’s chemistry really beckoning for a pugilist? And does having that pugilist now do anything substantive to improve the team’s chances?

Here’s how you answer those questions: name a game that Caps would have won last year if D.J. King was on the team then.

Couldn’t think of any? Me neither. Get off my lawn.

† Here’s our latest bet:  Matt Bradley will have more GWGs than total goals this season. I took the affirmative, Ian took the negative. Winner owes loser an order of pub fries.

Thursday will mark the fifth time the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals face off this season.  The Internets are awash with intelligent analyses and strong opinions, and we were feeling left out.  So we got the RMNB team together and pounded a bunch of latte macchiatos with guarana infusions.

All we could come up with is five smart points that will characterize the series and then a handful of jokes.  Pity us and read on.

1. Secondary Scoring

Contrary to popular belief, having the best player in the world doesn’t necessarily mean playoff success or anything. I mean, the Caps can pretty much score at will, but that doesn’t mean we should be too bold – like, cause a “my goalie is better than your goalie” scandal. No, the only thing this Caps fan DOES guarantee is that eventually the second and third lines will have to score because the D-pairing of Spacek and Hamrlik put something on Ovechkin that Ajax can’t take off.

That’s why it’s Fehr to say I Laich Semin and Fleischmann in this series. (See what I did there?)

Japers’ Rink considers the individual match-up between Ovechkin and Markov to be key, and while it is true that Markov has played against the stiffest of MTL’s competition, consider the evidence from this season:

The Caps top line of Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble-Green-Schultz has one (1!) goal at even strength when Spacek and Hamrlik are on the ice. One. Goal. And that was a Backstrom tally February 10, 2010 when the Capitals lost to Montreal in OT 6-5.

Or how about during the game November 28, 2009 when Spacek and Hamrlik combined for 11 blocked shots of the night: 7 of those Ovechkin’s. You might be saying, “Well, yea, but Ovechkin scored that night!” True, but it was against the D-pairing of Spacek and Mara.

With Spacek and Hamrlik guarding him on the ice during even strength, Ovechkin has been held to 2 Assists in 4 games. And one of those assists is a secondary – not exactly Great 8 numbers.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that the combo of Spacek and Hamrlik have been able to shut down the top line of the Caps. They have also consistently played against the top opponents for the Canadiens and have a Goals Against of around 2.4 when they are on the ice, versus MTL GA average of 2.72.

Luckily for us Caps fans we have second and third lines that can light the lamp. While Montreal has their top defensive duo guarding the top line, it has let Fehr, Fleischmann, Semin and Laich pad their stats.

Vs. MTL this year:

Eric Fehr: 4 Goals in 4 games on 8 shots.
Alex Semin: 2 Goals/1 Assist in 2 games.
Brooks Laich: 3 Goals/2 Assists in 4 games.
Tomas Fleischmann: 1 Goals/4 Assists in 4 games

Yeah, these Hab Bashers sure make scoring a lot easier. I just wish they would make it easier to accept the fact that someday this as-yet-unidentified playoff beard fungus will reach my heart and end me.

2. A Well-tuned Russian Machine

Is this well-tuned enough, ladies?

Alex Ovechkin has been slumping since the Olympics, but now he’s on an uptick.  Maybe this isn’t a revelatory analysis, but keep an eye out for the Great Eight.   As stated above, the Habs have managed to shut Ovie’s out so far, but we expect this to end lickety split.

Your boy Dan Steinberg gave us the inside scoop on Ovie’s training regimen:

Ovechkin also brought his personal trainer over from Russia about two weeks ago; he’ll be here through the end of the season. His parents told me that he’s been tailoring his workouts so that he’ll be at peak condition at the end of this week, for the playoffs, and that this explained his recent scoring slump more than any concerns about being tentative.

Consider for a moment what Alex Ovechkin performing at peak levels would look like.  Once you’ve changed your underpants, we’ll continue.

I expect we’ll see a lot more action like this epic goal against Hamerlik.

3. Jose Freakin’ Theodore

Who’s got a .922 save percentage since March and a slamming playoff beard?  THIS GUY. José Nicholas Roosevelt Théodore (my girlfriend calls him “Hosay Teddy”) is playing some of the best hockey of his life, and he’s had the good taste to do it in a Caps uniform.

Jose Theodore was the best goalie, nay player, in the NHL in the ’01-’02 season.  Can’t remember what team he was playing with at the time though.  Since March, Jose has  been only .01 off his career best season average. (.931).  He’s had multiple 40+ save games and earned the adoration of the red legion.  If goalie drama dominated the first three months of the season, every moment since then Jose has just plain dominated.  The “I just work here” moment feels like forever ago.

The good folks at Le Centre Bell might have some boos in store for the Capitals premier netminder, but it won’t phase Theo.  His lightning fast glove hand is complemented by an iron-clad, analog hockey brain.  Rain pucks, Habs.  Jose’s got your number.

4. The Slumpy, Dumpy Habs

The Canadiens’ nickname is the Habs, short for Les Habitants.  Given the small number of francophones in our demographic, we’d like to offer another nickname:  The ‘Nads.

The ‘Nads have had a rough go of it lately.  Winning only three of their final 11 games, Montreal plummeted from sixth to eighth place and needed at least a point in its final game to clinch a playoff berth.  By the way, can we agree to stop saying “clinch a berth?”  It sounds gross– a wet and sticky maneuver you would need tongs to perform and then shower after.

‘Nads’ Home win percentage?  48%.  On the road?  46%.  And yet despite these stats, we get quotes like this, from Marc-Andre Bergeron:

I know there are people who are saying we won’t last long in the playoffs, but I really am confident we can win this.

Quixotic confidence, right there.  Hey, did any other players say anything stupid?

It’s not as though we were up against Brodeur or Miller. They don’t have a dominant goalie.

Yikes.  Silly, Tomas Plekanec.  He clearly didn’t read this article… which we’re still writing so that would be impossible.  Whatever.  The Caps should be glad that this sub-.500 team continues talking smack, so that they may be hoisted by their own petard that much more.  Meanwhile, Washington maintains subdued confidence.  Comeuppance will come quick indeed for the ‘Nads, unless it’s from Mike Knuble, in which case it’ll be a wee bit slower.   But it’s still coming.

5. The April Curse

Was anyone not glued to the TV set last spring?  In addition to the finale of Battlestar Galactica, we were treated to thirteen epic hockey games and one not-so-epic game.  The Capitals fought like hell to reach the third round, but they hit a wall.  By the third period of the Disaster Game, it was ugly.  The full list of injuries was not disclosed, but we know Mike Green had a bad shoulder, Ovechkin had a bad foot, someone had a broken bone in his hand, a couple people had the flu, and Donald Brashear had a bad case of suspendititis.

Merely a fraction the hockey gods pantheon

In December we worried that the Caps might be plagued by injuries all season.  Fortunes turned in the following weeks, but the final dozen or so games it seems like we might be seeing a resurgence.   H.H. Brooks Laich took a puck to the dome.  Boyd Gordon‘s 80-year old back started acting up again.  Mike Green might have had a sprained wrist.  20-year old Captain America John Carlson got banged up a bit.  Since then, Nick Backstrom had a 24-hour bug, and Jose Theodore gets a nasty whack in the arm that sent him off the ice.

Hockey gods, hear our prayer.  If the Caps must lose, let it at least be a good game.  A battle well fought between healthy teams is what we deserve.  If I have to see a grim-faced Mike Green gingerly wiping his flop sweat away while nursing a separated shoulder and H1N1 again, I’m gonna flip out.   Thanks for your time, 99.

Puck drops around 7 PM Thursday night.

STICK
Chris “Stick” Blake is a player in the NHL prominently featured in the majority of the top 10 hockey fights on YouTube. He just got suspended from his team, and now has to attend court ordered anger management classes. He’s not a bad guy… he just loses it when people are bullied. After an old friend shows up with a life-threatening problem, Stick focuses his considerable energies on solving it and discovers a new line of work—helping people that the law can’t. From writers Mark Altman & Steve Kriozere (“Castle”) and Executive Producers Steve Stark (“Medium,” “Girlfriends”) and Russ Buchholz (FACING KATE). From Universal Cable Productions.

This raises many questions:

• Will the NHL license/endorse a show whose main character is a shamed ex-player famous for fighting?
• Will that player have been suspended under the new headshot rule?
• Can the player be a Capital? (Please!) Will the show be set in D.C. (or Vancouver passing for D.C.)?
• Can Chris Simon act?  Is Donald Brashear available for cameos? (Answer: yes)
• If picked up, how many episodes in before an ice skate is used as a murder weapon? If it happens, even odds that the victim is an official.

Just because a show is picked up in pilot season does not guarantee it ever gets produced or makes it to air.  In fact, most shows that we hear about are so apocalyptically awful, we never here from them again.  We’ll keep you posted on STICK.

There’s also a bit on one Cap’s under-appreciated skill, which Olympic team has the highest paid players, how to go about building a team, and who the top fighters since the lockout are.

I should note that I don’t think fighting is a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I do find it entertaining (when it’s done well).

http://www.puckprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=90

“Hockey is a young man’s game, so there’s a big difference between signing a 21 year old Nicklas Backstrom and signing a 25 year old Alexander Semin. Take the top 20 skaters thus far this season by Goals Versus Threshold: their average age is only 25 years old while the oldest is Pavel Datsyuk at merely 30 years old. Signing Nicklas Backstrom (10.8 GVT, 12th in NHL) for multiple years during his peak makes more sense than signing injury-prone Alexander Semin (8.0 GVT, 29th in NHL) for multiple years at slightly past his peak. The Caps are set up for significant cap flexibility after next season: currently Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green are the only significant contracts on the books for 2011-12.”

Makes sense to me. Backstrom might not have Semin’s natural talent, but you’re not paying for perfect world hockey; you’re paying for actual expected production on the ice. And right now, it seems to me that Backstrom gives you more of it, especially relative to the price.

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/2010/01/celebrating-unsung-bests-and-worsts-of.html

Dave Steckel receives an honorable mention with his 61.5% face-off win percentage, just a tenth of a percent behind Paul Gaustad.

http://www.fearthefin.com/2010/1/1/1229706/olympic-rosters-the-salary-cap#storyjump

Using payroll to judge the various Olympic teams’ chances is an interesting exercise.

Canada’s cap number is about $128 M (for 23 players), which is far-and-away the highest mark.

Russia is at $66.4 M for just 14 players, and the US comes in at $85.2 M for 23 players.

Looks like the Canadian team is the odds-on favorite, especially playing on home ice.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3288#more-3288

The main article talks about the decline of the Detroit Red Wings and how that relates to the quality of their front office. The comments sections is an interesting read on paying big money for goalies, managing contracts, etc.

“We’re about halfway through the season right now, and the distribution of corsi Sv% looks identical to what would be expected by chance alone. I.e. – in even a sample size of half a year, there’s no discernible “skill” amongst the population of NHL goaltenders.

If I were an NHL GM, there’s no [cough] way I’d spend any kind of money on goaltending. I’d trust my scouts to pick me out a couple guys who belong to the population, and I’d pay them as little as possible.

I can’t understand why one would bet big money on something in which there is so much uncertainty and randomness wrt true equity or “edge”. To boot, if the equity exists it takes so much time to realize, that most of the utility is lost.”

It’s an interesting question. Having a couple young decent goaltenders on the cheap sounds pretty nice though.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/4/1230232/nhl-fighting-and-chess-revisited

Former Capitals brawling aficionado Donald Brashear comes in as the fourth best fighter since the lockout, using the ELO rating system (like in chess) which looks at the quality of competition and not just wins/losses.

To me, fighting is as much a part of the game as still calling jerseys “sweaters”. Fighting serves its purpose as a deterrent from dirty play as well as physical play against a team’s superstars.

The Washington Capitals have no deterrent right now. None. You can argue that their offensive prowess and efficiency on the Powerplay is the deterrent, and I would agree…but really for contending teams only. My worry is that later in the season, teams out of the hunt that may have a score to settle with the Caps, aren’t going to care too much about giving up a couple of meaningless goals in a game that they’re already completely out of. There will be quite a few more Mike Duco’s in the league at that point looking to make a name for themselves with their teams. I’m not in any way advocating taking an enforcer on the playoff roster, this is strictly a regular season move.

The enforcer is no different to me then a defensive specialist in basketball, they are quintessential role players. It’s because of this that we expect them to win every fight, its what they do…I’m still struggling with what Wade Belek did to Donald last year.

I guess part of me is also tired of losing as well, I respect Brads and Erskine for standing up when it’s needed, but it’s not really fair to them. Why should they have to consistently go against guys out of their weight class? I’m tired of seeing my team pushed around (and or terribly bloodied); I’d like to see Sugden get a shot.

Let’s take a look at some real world enforcer analogies.

• Are you more inclined to push your luck at the bar if one of your friends used to be a college offensive lineman? Of course.
• Do you know anyone who was beat up as a kid when everyone knew their older brother often times got suspended for fighting? Probably not.
• Would you wear a Michael Crabtree jersey to an Eagles game in Philly with a stadium full of snow, if you were sitting next to Mr. T? Well, even if Mr. T was there, you still probably wouldn’t do something that stupid. But you get my point.

By Mark Randle