One look at the dismantling of the Chicago Blackhawks and it becomes apparent that the life blood of any hockey organization is its youth. If you can bring in young players that provide value at reasonable prices you have the ability to succeed in the long term. In the case of the Hershey Bears, it allows the Caps to fill their team with players who know how to win and execute Bruce Boudreau’s system.

The challenge then becomes not only which players to promote, but which players should be dangled in a trade and which you can simply cut bait with. The underlying question in all of this is simply: Does the front office feel a certain prospect can make it in the NHL?

The Copper & Blue has been doing some excellent analysis evaluating all of the forwards drafted in 2009 and in 2010 using NHL equivalencies, a tool developed by Gabriel Desjardins.

NHL equivalencies try to figure out: How will a player’s performance translate to the NHL? It won’t tell you what a player’s stats will be once they make the jump but instead tries to give you a feel for, all things being equal (games played, PP time, etc.), what could you expect that player’s NHL offensive performance to be given his AHL boxcar stats.

We thought we would do the same focusing on the Hershey Bears and also bringing another element into the mix, one introduced in baseball by Tony Blengino: Relative Production Potential:

The method adjusts for league context, measuring all players’ performance relative to their league. Therefore, a massive offensive season as measured in traditional numbers in the pitcher-dominated High-A Carolina League carries more weight than a similar campaign in the hitting-crazy Triple-A Pacific Coast League. The RPP method also adjusts for a prospect’s age in relation to his level, weeding out all of the Phil Hiatts and Dale Sveums who create the illusion that they are long-term major league prospects with their pounding of minor league hurlers.

For example, there is no denying that Keith Aucoin had a dominating season for the Calder Cup winning Bears. Heck, he was even named the MVP of the League. But what else should we expect from a 32 year old career AHLer going up against 22 year olds?

On the flip side, Mathieu Perreault at age 22 had a much stronger campaign when you factor in age. While it may not translate to a better NHL equivalency, the upside of Perreault is probably greater than Aucoin since he has only been eligible to play in the AHL for two years versus Aucoin’s twelve.

So here’s the method:

1. Tabulate each forwards NHLE using Desjardins’ article for the translation from AHL to NHL.
2. Look at the Points per game and Shooting % for the entire AHL.
3. Calculate the amount of standard deviations each player is from the mean.
4. Make an adjustment based on the player’s age, subtracting one for each year they are over 25, adding one for each year under.

The NHLEs (based on an 82 game season) of last year’s Calder Cup winners (forwards only) listed in descending order of RPP:

As we would expect, the younger players gravitate towards the top if they had a “better than average” campaign compared to other forwards who played more than 20 games at the AHL level.

Mathieu Perreault leads the list explaining why he could be Marcuss Johansson’s main competition for 3rd line center at the NHL level this upcoming season. As to whether he can sustain the production over an NHL season while still improving remains to be seen.

Another interesting name on the list is Francois Bouchard, an adept playmaker, with a quick release and great vision in the offensive zone currently looked upon as a Top 10 prospect in the Caps system. With six forwards becoming UFAs in 2010-11 it may make sense to give Bouchrad a shot at the 3rd line if he comes in with another stellar AHL season.

RMNB blogger Andrew Gordon also showed he deserves a shot at the NHL level. If we look at his NHLE of .39 Points per game at age 25 his career could translate into something similar to Fernando Pisani or Joel Ward – a perennial 15+ goal scoring threat that doesn’t shy away from getting physical to win the battles for pucks or space on the ice.

Alexandre Giroux looks impressive with an NHLE of 54 points but when we look at his boxcar stats in context he has a nine year advantage on some of the competition. He should dominate them. We’ll know soon enough as he signed a one-way NHL contract with the Edmonton Oilers earlier this off season.

Chris Borque‘s 52 point NHLE combined with a second best RPP on the Bears makes me wonder if his decision to go to the KHL was a hasty one while Steve Pinizzotto 21 point NHLE at age 26 makes me disagree with the notion he should be one of the first call-ups from Hershey.

NHL equivalencies are just a tool that help us put offensive stats for forwards in context. It takes nothing into account how a player is defensively, whether he is a good skater or performs well in the clutch. It simply tells us “would this player perform on the NHL level and if so what would those stats look like.”

Well, what do you think of our post? Do you think defensive contribution and “hockey intangibles” could provide better insight? Let us know in the comments.

Andrew Gordon is wiped out along the boards by Aaron Gagnon. (Photos by Joe Hermitt, The Patriot-News)

If you’ve ever played a competitive sport at any high-level, you know the importance of momentum. It’s something that cannot be accurately measured by statistics, but its presence will never show up on any box-score.  Watching game two of the Calder Cup Finals between the Hershey Bears and the Texas Stars tonight, it was obvious who had momentum in the final ten minutes of the game: The Hershey Bears. Despite the Chocolate and White never leading during regulation, Andrew Gordon’s electrifying put-back off a Patrick Wellar shot from the right point rallied the troops and tied the game 3-3 with 9:16 to go. And after Stars’ Defenseman Matt Stephenson went off for a four-minute double minor for high-sticking towards the tail end of a Bears Powerplay, it seemed like fate was on the Bears side.

It was not to be. The Bears could not score during the ensuing 31 seconds of their 5 on 3 advantage and fretted away the first 1:16 of their 5 on 4. Then, after a whistle, Boyd Kane lost his temper during a scrum and speared a Texas player. The back linesman saw it, notified the head official, and Kane was sent off for four minutes, negating the rest of the Bears Powerplay. Hello, 4-on-4 hockey. Goodbye, momentum.

Hershey and Texas then traded chances back and forth until Caps castoff Travis Morin lifted a slow, knuckling backhander with 46 seconds left. The puck arc’ed over Michal Neuvirth, who desperately tried to stab it with his glove hand. While the rest of the Bears looked on in disbelief, the puck settled in the back of the net. The Bears lose a heartbreaker 4-3.

• Postgame, Hershey Head Coach Mark French, didn’t mince any words when reminded by ABC27′s Gregg Mace that the Bears have come back and won two straight on the road before: “We took six penalties tonight. Four poor in nature. If [our guys] want to continue making those errors, they’ll get to four [wins] before us.”
• Let’s not turn to the History Books for inspiration. No team has ever lost the first two games of the Calder Cup Finals at home and ever come back to win a series. The Bears will now travel to Texas where they’ll play three straight games at Cedar Park Center. They must win at least two of three to bring the series back home to Giant Center. Consider this little factoid as well: The Bears are only 4-3 this postseason on the road.
• Hershey had been 37-1-0-0 in its previous 38 home games before falling to Texas Stars on home ice twice in a three-day span. Is this just an anomaly or are they simply playing a better hockey team?
• I’ll put my Caps blinders on and say I think it’s an anomaly. We’re talking about potentially the AHL’s greatest team of all-time– a 60-win team in the regular season. Let’s face it: The Bears had an 11-day layoff before game one and looked rusty. Tonight, they were the better team, but were plagued by a few early mistakes, a lack of discipline and bad luck. Stars’ Center Aaron Gagnon scored one minute into the game on a breakaway after Hershey’s Defense came out disorganized. The Stars’ second goal of the game was an absurd gift from the Gods. Andrew Joudrey made a great hockey play and blocked a chunk of Garrett Stafford’s shot from the point during a Stars’ Powerplay. The shot changed directions and puttered harmlessly along the ice towards Bryan Helmer, who looked to control the puck on his backhand. As Helmer’s stick met rubber, the puck shot off his stick past a helpless Michal Neuvirth into the yawning net.
• Really, the key to this series will be if Hershey can eschew chip-and-chase to play the simple hockey that will overcome Texas’s outstanding defense. Mark French was clearly frustrated after the game. He has been preaching offensive-zone patience to his players. Yet, some of these guys will get discouraged and take harmless shots from the perimeter or throw a centering pass out in front when nobody’s home. The team must be aggressive on the forecheck and play hard in the corners. We’ll see if they’ve learned their lesson Monday Night.
• 

  Haaaaaaaaay Ray! (Photo by Kyle M.)

  Hall of Fame Defenseman Ray Bourque was in the house tonight to watch his son play.  He looks grumpy in our accompanying picture.
• One thing’s for sure: Steve Pinizzotto certainly plays the game with an edge. In the first period with the Bears shorthanded and down 1-0, he caused a turnover and expertly executed a 2-on-1 break. Pinner blasted a hard slapshot top-shelf to tally his fifth goal of the playoffs, unassisted. While that was totally awesome, he also lost his temper a few times and yapped way too much at the Stars bench. Pinizzotto has good speed, a hard, accurate shot and a dedication to defense that could make him a solid third or fourth line NHL player in the future, especially for a team like the Capitals who need guys who are tenacious and gifted on the penalty kill. Pinner however, needs to play with a controlled chaos and keep his emotions in check. Tonight, his two minors (slashing, roughing) negated his positives.
• Francois Bouchard now has goals in two straight.
• Andrew Gordon’s tally in the third was the first goal of the finals for the AHL’s most prolific line. His Celebration? So. Epic. (Check out the photo montage here.)

The Bears will leave for Texas at noon on Sunday from Harrisburg International Airport. When they step on the ice for game three Monday night, they will be forced to deal with real adversity for the first time this year. Can the Bears step up and regain their offensive flair? Will Texas feel the pressure of wanting to win the Calder Cup in front of their home fans and lose control of the series? Comcast SportsNet will be showing the game live Monday Night at 8:30pm. We’ll see you then.

Video of all of Game 2′s Goals:

Francois Bouchard and Mathieu Perreault do the Bears only celebrating of the night after Bouchard's second period tally. (Photo by Kyle M.)

The hockey gods must be playing a cruel trick on us. Why? Because for the first time in the postseason and the second time in 39 games this year, the Hershey Bears lost in front of their home fans at Giant Center. (And no, we weren’t there to curse them!)

Yet before you hit the panic button and start considering doomsday scenarios, we must acknowledge that this was the first time the Bears had played a game in 11 days. During that period, celebrities Gary Coleman and Dennis Hopper died, May turned to June, BP ruined the entire Gulf of Mexico three times over, Team Russia was humbled in another International Tournament and Bret Michaels nearly died from a brain hemorrhage, recovered and then won Celebrity Apprentice. So rust obviously could have been a factor tonight. It’s hard to have your mojo going after that long of a layoff.

The first 30 minutes of tonight’s Calder Cup Finals exhibition played out much to that effect as both teams treated the first half of the game like a chess match. Both clubs tried desperately not make the game’s first, crucial mistake. However despite being outshot 12-2 after one period of play, the Bears were the ones to score the game’s first goal in the second period. The ever-darty and creative Mathieu Perreault found Francois Bouchard wide open in front of the Stars’ net and the Sherbrooke, Quebec native buried it past Texas Goaltender Matt Climie. Yet, Texas was unfazed. Tonight was the 11th straight game they had given up the game’s first goal and during that span they are 7-4.

5 minutes after Bouchard dented the twine, Stars’ center Greg Rallo responded by beating Michal Neuvirth glove side with a sick wrist shot from the top of the circles. Then in the third, Scott McCulloch backhanded home what turned out to be the eventual game winning goal on a semi-breakaway. As Bears’ Radio Announcer John Walton so eloquently put it, the Bears turned it on too little, too late tonight. Hershey falls 2-1. To the bullets!!

• After tonight’s loss, this is the first time that the Chocolate and White have actually trailed in a series during the postseason. Hmmm. Sleeping Giant = Awoken?
• 

  Doc in the house!

  The best The second best The third best play by play man in the NHL, Mike Emrick was in the house and dropped the ceremonial first puck. Kyle caught the scene in this awesome photo to the right.
• Just a simple request: Can someone turn off the disney channel next time they have a serious hockey interview during intermission? Poor Bob Woods.
• Not only was Elvis in the house wearing a sweet Hershey sweater, he was also frenching all ladies in sight.
• First line right winger and fan of the blog Andrew Gordon returned to the Bears lineup for the first time in four games after suffering a knee injury, and was one of the best players on the ice. He had numerous scoring opportunities in the first and second periods, and in the third, he leveled Andrew Hutchinson, the Stars’ most steady defenseman, along the dasher boards. The hit, which was deemed legal, caught Hutchinson awkwardly from the side and started a brawl that woke up the Bears during the final minutes of play.
• Despite getting the L, Michal Neuvirth was especially solid in goal making 24 saves. At times, I would even say he was spectacular. It’s like he’d be a great back-up goaltender in DC next year, no?
• One thing that seriously bugs me about the AHL is how goalies intentionally knock the net off its moorings when danger approaches. There’s never a delay of game penalty. Ever! Tonight, Matt Climie flung himself into the cage several times to get a whistle. If the AHL had more than one referee, as Corey Massisak so intelligently pointed out, maybe they could make this call consistently. But all I can say for now is: It. Drives. Me. Insane.
• Comcast Sportsnet’s Allen Pope reports that Games 3 through 5 from Texas will be shown live by Comcast. Make sure you join us Monday, Wednesday and Friday of next week to watch almost Caps hockey on TV again!!

Hershey will look to rebound and tie the series Saturday night in front of a sold out Giant Center at 7pm. We’ll talk to you then. Keep your heads up!

This past weekend was awesome. Why? Because it was chock full of Hockey at every hour of the day. Sure there was “Super Sunday” with the Russians destroying the Czechs, USA humbling the Green Snubbers from the North, and the Swedes shutting out the Fins in Olympic action. But there also was a double dip of AHL Hockey with the Hershey Bears playing both on Saturday and Sunday. Well since we here at RMNB can’t be everywhere – though Fedor certainly tried as he watched illegal Russian Video Streams of the Bears Games during breaks in the Olympics – we asked our Hershey Correspondent Kyle M to summarize the events of this weekend via pictures, words & yes, his own video. Video which includes reaction from players and Coach Mark French after Hershey set the AHL Record for Consecutive Home Victories. Awesome. If you hate reading like me, here’s all you need to know: HERSHEY RULZ!

Game 1 – Saturday, February 20th – Lake Erie Monsters vs Hershey Bears @ Giant Center

In Saturday’s tilt, the Hershey Bears rose to the challenge – in what I’d say was one of their toughest tests in their now 19 game home winning streak. The Bears defeated the Colorado Avalanche’s affiliate Lake Erie Monsters 4-1 despite a tremendous amount of physical play. Bears goaltender Jason Bacashihua (above) beat his former team (while being in his old Avs mask) with 24 superb saves on 25 shots. With his strong effort in net, Bacashihua was also named the First Star of the Game.

Cash has now won 12 of his 15 starts this season. Four different Bears managed to light the lamp including Oskar Osala, Jay Beagle, Andrew Joudrey & Andrew Gordon via an Empty Net Goal. One final note: Who broke Bacashihua’s Shutout? None other than former Capital Brian Willsie.

Photos From The Game:

Oskar Osala Scores!

Jason Bacashihua and Karl Alzner Gaurd The Net

We weren’t kidding about the rough stuff!

Game 2 – Saturday, February 20th – Albany River Rats vs Hershey Bears @ Giant Center

With the consecutive home victories record on the line, the Bears came out hard against the NJD Affiliated Albany River Rats. After getting back to back goals by Andrew Gordon and Chris Bourque, Braden Holtby surrendered 3 goals in succession in a little under 10 minutes. By the end of second period, the game was all tied up 3-3. It would take 11 minutes of play in the third frame until lil’ scrappy Francois Bouchard would break the tie. More importantly, Bryan Helmer’s assist on the goal gave him the All-Time AHL Assists Record for Defensemen. Bouchard would then add another goal 8 minutes later as the Hershey Bears won their 20th Straight Home Game.

Post Game Reaction:

Photos:

Captain America John Carlson Focuses On Being Awesome During Warm Ups

Steve Pinizzotto Ready To Drop The Gloves