http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/19/1185179/taking-a-beating-league-leaders-in

“We all know who the big hitters are, but have you ever wondered who gets hit the most?”

Looking only at roads hits to remove some of the scoring bias, Stephane Robidas (191) and Douglas Murray (187) are the guys who have gotten hit the most over the last two years.

Recently departed Capital Michael Nylander is 6th in getting hit ratio, having dished out just 7 hits while taking 53 himself. No Caps were amongst the top 19 in hit ratio, with Trent Hunter leading the pack there (153 hits, 63 hits against).

With the high-powered offense, there isn’t a ton of need for Washington to be overly physical.

http://hockproject.blogspot.com/2010/01/save-percentage-adjusted-for-penalty.html

While save percentage may be one of the better stats for goalies, it still doesn’t take into account the quality of the shots faced. That issue can be ameliorated a bit by adjusting for how well and how often goalies face the penalty kill.

“As of now the top ten goalies in SV% with at least ten games played are:

1. Ryan Miller .936
2. Tukka Rask .930
3. Jimmy Howard .928
4. Jaroslav Halak .927
5. Mikka Kiprusoff .926
6. Henriq Lunqvist .926
7. Peter Budaj .925
8. Evgeni Nabokov .925
9. Seymon Varlamov .924
10. Tomas Vokoun .924

What I’m going to do though is make an adjustment for the Shot Quality effect on the PK, and thus make an adjusted SV% for that situation; here are the top ten in that stat:

1. Ryan Miller .941
2. Seymon Varlamov .941
3. Peter Budaj .938
4. Jimmy Howard .937
5. Tomas Vokoun .937
6. Mikka Kiprusoff .933
7. Henrik Lunqvist .932
8. Martin Brodeur .932
9. Tukka Rask .931
10. Evgeni Nabokov, Jaroslav Halak and Ilya Bryzgalov .930″

Varly hasn’t done particularly well on the penalty kill (.844 SV%), so when making an adjustment for that he vaults up to virtually the top of the rankings. Now if he could spend more time on the ice, that would be fantastic.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/14/1250611/the-nhls-best-even-strength

Hawerchuk “estimated the expected number of goals that each player should have scored each year based on the locations of the shots he took – because rebounds are high-percentage shots… only looked at initial shots to assess pure shooting” and then compared to the actual number of goals scored. Ilya Kovalchuk was easily tops, having scored about 51 more goals than would be expected. The Capitals’ two Alexanders were 7th (Ovie, 27 more goals) and 12th (Semin, 19 more goals). Nice to have a couple of sharp-shooters like that on one’s team.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=426

The Western Conference has been stronger than the Eastern Conference this year:

“Through last weekend, in head-to-head matchups between Eastern and Western teams this season, the West has won 70 in regulation and 16 more in overtime or shootouts, compared to the East’s marks of 47 wins in regulation and 17 in overtime. In those games, the West has outscored the East by a total of 44 goals and outshot them by 155 shots…

While the worst team in the NHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, has an address on the East Coast, even the better teams in the Eastern Conference have trouble with the top Western teams: of the 42 East-West games between the top eight teams from each Conference, the West has won 29, the East just 13.

This is not to say that the Eastern Conference is without elite teams. The New Jersey Devils may be the most complete team in the NHL, the Washington Capitals have the most explosive offense, the Buffalo Sabres have the best goaltender and the Pittsburgh Penguins are the defending Stanley Cup champions. But of the three teams that can lay claim to being at the head of the class at the halfway point of the season, two reside in the West, with the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks joining New Jersey.”

Despite having to go through the tougher competition, the Blackhawks are still the team with the best odds to reach the Stanley Cup Finals.

"Team       Odds
Blackhawks 31%
Devils     29%
Capitals   21%
Sharks     19%
Sabres     16%
Canucks    15%
Flames     11%
Penguins   10%

“Ultimately, you have to beat the other conference’s top team to win the Cup and the two favorites both reside in the West. Both the Blackhawks and the Sharks would be favored in a head-to-head matchup with any Eastern team, while the Canucks (predicted to pass over the Avalanche in our projections) and Flames would be underdogs to the Devils and Capitals, but favorites against the Penguins or Sabres.”

(Almost) anything can happen in a short series, and being one of the top few contenders for the Cup is about as good as any team can reasonably expect.

This weekly post will deliver powerfully interesting links that will make you laugh, cry and maybe even kiss that dumb brain goodbye.

This week learn about ties, an awesomely great fighter, why EA Sports hates the Capitals and how Jose Theodore’s current flashy statistics might be a little misleading… Take it away Daniel!

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/12/21/1210151/wall-street-journal-column-nhl

“Whether any team will admit it, they’ve started to take advantage of the extra points available to them if they play for the tie.”

Given the way the rules are set up regarding points, a cost-benefit analysis makes it pretty clear that it’s better to play it safe an assure yourself of at least one point than to take any risks late in a tie game.

I like the idea to change things to: 3 points for a win in regulation, 2 in OT, and 1 for an OTL. 0 points for losing in regulation.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/12/11/1192502/rick-rypien

If you’re going to fight, you might as well be good at it. You know; using both hands and throwing combinations, actually defending yourself, etc. I think Anderson Silva could learn to skate a little bit, and boy would he make a good enforcer.

http://hockproject.blogspot.com/2009/12/summary-of-goaltending-metrics.html

(1) Wins are largely useless for judging goalies, since they are a team stat.

(2) Goals Against Average doesn’t consider how many shots a goalie faced.

(3) Save Percentage doesn’t consider the difficulty of the shots that a goalie faced.

“And I think that defines the mantra that hockey statisticians strive by,

“It’s not about being perfect, it’s about being better than before.””

I’ll drink to that!

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=396

“A great goalie playing shorthanded is much more likely to give up a goal than a mediocre goalie playing with five skaters on each side.”

Jose Theodore is near the top of the list when it comes to facing the fewest percentage of his shots on the penalty kill. The Caps have been very good at avoiding shots while down 4-on-3 or 5-on-3. I guess that means Theodore hasn’t even been quite as “good” as his straight save percentage has looked..

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=393

If the Caps and the Pens met in the playoffs with the teams largely as-is, Pittsburgh would be predicted to win about 55% of the time.

“Both the Penguins and Capitals are known for their superstar-driven offenses, puck-moving defensemen and entertaining style. The Penguins are better at even-strength while the Capitals are better with the man advantage. The big difference will be in nets, where Fleury should be able to edge out Varlamov as he did last spring.”