Screengrab via @CarrottBazooka

Since Alex Ovechkin has opted out of the All-Star Weekend (and has better things to do anyway), Dennis Wideman is now Washington’s lone representative in Ottawa. While Wideman is perhaps slightly less likely to don a hat and sunglasses and do trick shots, he’s a Capital, so we love him all the same. We’ll be covering Wideman’s foray into the glamorous life of an All-Star, so check back for updates, because let’s face it, you’re already bored without hockey.

Dennis Wideman was picked in the 15th round with the second-to-last pick that could be used on a defenseman, before only Canucks defenseman Alexander Edler. This means that we can get hipster now if we want and call him underrated. We knew Dennis Wideman when he wasn’t cool. Logan Couture was picked last overall and won a brand new caaaaarrrrr! Somehow it just wasn’t the same without Ovechkin there laughing and taking pictures.

Best Moments

• Pavel Datsyuk went first overall to Team Chara. Erik Karlsson got picked first for Team Alfredsson because he babysits Alfie’s kids, apparently.
• Alfie got confused about what round it was multiple times, leading to excellent cutaways of him asking everyone around him.
• Do the Leafs suck? I feel unsure. I wish that someone would have clarified this.

• Carey Price, clearly not expecting to be picked by a Bruin and a Leaf, had a mouthful of water when he was picked by Team Chara, and spent a good thirty seconds remembering how to swallow. It wasn’t an actual spit-take, but it was close.
• James Duthie somehow talked to Tim Thomas about the White House scandal without ever once actually mentioning what happened. Because, you know, he wouldn’t want to distract from the event at hand.

Best Quotes

• Joffrey Lupul on being booed every time he took the podium: “I like it. I don’t want to be cheered in Ottawa anyway.”
• Jason Spezza: “I owe Malkin 20 bucks. I told him he’d get picked before me.”
• Carey Price: “Is Z going for offense or defense? Wait remember, there’s no defense.”
• Tonight in unintentional rhymes: “Our third pick…Jonathan Quick.”
• Jarome Iginla to Patrick Kane: “Hey, what’s up man?” Kane: “Yeah, you too.”

via penslove.tumblr.com

• Chara to Tyler Seguin after making him wait till the second-to-last round: “Hug it out?”
• Cody Hodgson on ending up on Team Chara “It wasn’t my choice.” Pained face.
• Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson discussing Sedin mythology: “I wonder if him and his brother will have any chemistry in the game?” “Doubtful.” “Aliens.” “They know where to pass the puck without even talking. It’s insane.”
• Alfredsson on Marion Gaborik being picked by Team Chara: “We were hoping Gaborik would be left, but Hank said you can’t score on him anyway.”

Important Questions

• Do they know who each team is going to draft beforehand, or do they just have two of each sweater for everyone?
• Who is most desperately in need of a haircut: Letang, Stamkos, or Hartnell? Discuss.
• What do you call a person who lives in Ottawa? Is it Ottawan? Ottawaian? Ottauan?

You know the deal: Doug Johnson. Puck Buddys. Twitter.

The Puck Drop: Well, that was unpleasant, Caps.

That “nervous feeling” we had?  A little too much rest, a little too little regard for the opponent? That, combining with a too many penalties, snapped our garters and our streak. Lookie here, Canada: we tried being nice, and you had to go and dump all over our parade. We obviously need to approach this in a different way.

The Set Up: If you’re anything like us – and frankly, what are the chances of that? – you’ve always had a secret crush on Vancouver. It’s like Portland, but with less smug. And more Olympics. So we were seriously pulling for the Canucks to smear Boston’s smelly faces all over the ice last June, which they didn’t. (They did sort of try to riot, however, which was really very cute.) But now it’s different. City-crush be darned; we want the Canucks, and we want to break them, especially after that Edmonton nonsense with the Jonas Brothers Line, and that brick-wall Japanese netminder of theirs, Kabuki something.

And we just might get them. From last year’s highs the Canucks have fallen… well, not to new lows, but certainly somewhere in the mid-level yawns. 4-5-1 is not the start of a championship season. Pucks on net seems to be the biggest problem; in only 10 games so far they’ve been shut out three times. So….

What Makes Them Hot

1: Duh. We cannot get enough Ryan Kesler. Nor can his fans. Or even Kesler himself, it seems. Did you see the latest loving video of him, “Heart of a Canuck”, rambling around his old home town, getting all weepy about what it means to play in the NHL, blah blah? Cue the Diane Sawyer-soft focus and slo-mo home-movie clips. At least he dressed the part, sporting a t-shirt so tight that we guess it came from the “Childrens” section of Kmart.

2: Twins Lounge. We would like to propose a rule, right now: identical twins shall not be allowed to play on the same hockey team. Or at least, creepy twins. (Maybe if they’re hot… we could go for that.) Seriously, there’s just something not quite right about Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin. They share everything: the same beady eyes, same scraggly beards, and unfortunately for us practically the same performance on the ice – 3 or 4 goals (depending on which Sedin you’re talking about) and 8 assists so far. That, and they’re totally using their special Wonder Twin powers of telepathy during games, which we consider cheating. As long as they’re on the ice, they’re a threat.

3:  They Don’t Have a #3. They’re that bad. However, previously we did write about some of their prettier players. Click here if you want to sigh longingly while at your desk.

What Makes Them Not

1: Roberto LOLongo. And we thought we’ve had goalie drama… All the glass groins in the league couldn’t add up to the conflama (conflict + drama) that has swirled around the Canucks #2 netminder. One day you’re a hero, the next you’re a goat. Just ask Lou. His numbers have genuinely been awful this year; he stunk up Rexall Place so badly that Alain Vigneault pulled him after 26 in the second period. Arguably it’s not all his fault – even his teammates say as much when they talk about needing to get more offensive and defensive support. Still, that hasn’t stopped him from becoming a punchline. “Hey Roberto – why the Luongo face?”, that sort of thing.

Over on the Twitter he’s getting a virtual pantsing, which really isn’t that uncommon for any player these days, but we’re just piling on. And as long as we’re piling on, Roberto’s long term contract (Zillions (CAN) through 2018) may be the only thing that could make the federal budget deficit look reasonable and manageable.

2: Under Over: The geniuses over at Nucks Misconduct write: “The “combined” plus/minus of Kevin Bieksa and Keith Ballard, good for #646 and #647 in the entire National Hockey League, out of 649 players.” Now admittedly, we’ve never really payed much attention to +/- rankings, especially in sentences that don’t seem to have any active verbs. But it gave us a chance to look a little more closely at these two. Bieksa and Ballard each have exactly 1 point this entire season (an assist for Bieksa and goal for Ballard) which, even for defensemen on a sputtering team, is sad.

Crash the Net: We’re still pissed at Timmy Thomas and company for making Ryan Kesler cry.  Hey – Ryan doesn’t care. Maybe Ryan didn’t want your stupidy, stinky Stanley Cup anyway. So there. But say what you will about RK, he was responsible for the biggest traffic day ever over on PB. And we can’t mention the Canucks without a stick tap to two pals who follow the team: our pal Tom who covers them for our humble little site (and who was responsible for the monster RK traffic), and Thom (note the adorable Canadian spelling), one of the sharpies who manages Canucks Army.

As Seen on TV:  For your viewing pleasure, our freinds at CSN, and their spiffy suits, will bring you the game in living color at 10:00pmET. So let’s have a sleepover and giggle the night away on the twitters. We’ll make popcorn, build pillow forts, tell spooky stories (“The call is coming from upstairs!  And it’s Zdeno Chara!!!!), We’ll dish about boys compare notes on PIM, ATOI, S%, and OMG.

For readers with access to the CBC, the game is featured on Hockey Night in Canada, and that could mean Grapes and Milbury. Consider yourselves warned:  Dangerous mold has been known to spontaneously grow on TV screens, so you may want to consider outfitting your sleepover guests in hazmat suits / PJs.

Photo credit: Richard Wolowicz

Head coach Bruce Boudreau is not shying away from having Marcus Johansson center Alex Ovechkin on the top line, so it’s time to put the sophomore Swede under the microscope. Specifically, what can fans expect him to produce in his second season?

Last year, without any NHL history to guide us, centers who played more than 20 games at the age of 20 as a rookie told us it’s reasonable to expect Johansson to play 58 games and register 31 points in his first season. Johansson ended up scoring 13 goals and 14 assists for 27 points in 69 games.

This time, we will use Johansson’s actual NHL stats to match him with players who had comparable production at the same age and then use the development of those peers to generate a projection for 2011-12. Stats are normalized to the 2010-11 season so they can be compared on a level playing field despite being in different eras.

Although he is frequently compared to Washington’s other Swedish center, Nicklas Backstrom, Johansson’s statistical peer group includes Henrik Sedin, Martin Hanzal, and Nikolai Antropov, among others. As you can see, the group is a pretty close match for Johansson’s rookie season:

Almost identical down the line, including Puck Prospectus’ goals versus threshold, which is the value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement player would have contributed.

Even after a solid rookie season, the peer group shows Johansson will get better in year two. Similar players increased their scoring by 12.5 percent and a third of those doubled their GVT the following year.

The big difference, of course, could be in Johansson’s linemates. Centering Ovechkin and Alexander Semin can put the young Swede into the upper bracket of his peer group’s production, leading to a more optimistic projection. But even that would be only a slight improvement to his boxcar stats.

That projection may look low based on Johansson’s performance in the second half of the season, but even if we take a 40-game moving average of his scoring (playoffs included), he still only maxed out to a 43-point pace over an 82-game season.

After a sluggish start, Johansson began to improve game-by-game and by the All-Star break was showing the poise and talent that justified Washington selecting him in the first round of the 2009 entry draft. However, a breakthrough season seems to be at least another year away.

When I posted my thoughts on which second-line centers might be a fit for the Capitals, many of you asked me: “What about Stephen Weiss of the Florida Panthers?” So I am going to use that as today’s collective Feed the Machine question and see what the numbers say.

The first step is to take a look at what it is going to cost in terms of the salary cap. Since Washington has $6,686,351 in cap space at the deadline, Weiss’s $3.1 million cap hit should not be an issue. Plus, he is under contract through the 2012-13 season so it is important to note that this wouldn’t be a rental.

Because Weiss would be with the Caps for multiple seasons, we need to find out what type of production to expect in the future. For the purposes of this article I will project one year of production using similar players to his 2009-10 season.

I found 19 players who had similar seasons to Weiss’ 60-point campaign last year. Those skaters include the likes of Henrik Sedin, Saku Koivu and Mike Modano at similar ages. The comparable players posted a better average GVT – Tom Awad’s Goals Versus Threshold statistic. GVT measures how many goals (on both the offensive and defensive side of the puck) above a replacement player were contributed. The six goal difference between Weiss and his Sims is significant, since six goals equate to roughly one win over the course of a season. I would guess the disparity between the closeness of boxcar stats and GVT is due to the defensive side of the puck. Weiss may not be as sound defensively as his peer group.

These 19 similar players averaged 56 points the following year while playing 71 games and logging about 1,400 minutes on average. Weiss should come close to that production if we project his current boxcar stats over an 82 game span. To put another way, he should produce the same as the similar players did but would need another 11 games and approximately 200 minutes of ice time to do it. Again, we also see Weiss under-performing his peer group in regards to GVT by about 60%.

This brings us to next year, where we could reasonably expect to see a 58-point season along with a GVT of around 6-8 if we discount him to his peer group as he was the previous two seasons. This number is important. Based on his cap hit ($3.1 million), we can figure out how much value Weiss needs to provide and compare that with the value Weiss is expected to provide. This is also called Goals Versus Salary (GVS) and is similar to what I did to evaluate Ovechkin’s contract.

To calculate it, you subtract $0.5 million from the cap hit (the cost of a replacement level player and also the League minimum) and multiply that by three, because to be competitive a team must get 120 GVT from their remaining $40 million in cap space.

In Weiss’ case, he would have to produce a GVT of 7.8 during the 2011-12 season to “justify” his $3.1 million cap hit. Based on his age and the fact he plays with better teammates in Florida then he might in Washington it is quite possible we have seen his best, which is good, but not quite where it needs to be for a $3.1 million cap hit.

So I stand by my original recommendation: Take a flier on Marty Reasoner and either look for something better in the offseason, take the gamble that Marcus Johansson improves significantly or persuade Evgeny Kuznetsov to soften his stance on playing in the KHL for one more year.

Edited by Chris Gordon and Ian Oland.

Adrian Dater had an interesting post naming the top 10 centers in the NHL. As you would expect with 30 teams, each with 4 centers, some big names were omitted. The ranking is also subject to much debate. Take a look:

1. Sidney Crosby, PIT
2. Pavel Datsyuk, DET
3. Henrik Sedin, VAN
4. Jonathan Toews, CHI
5. Mike Richards, PHI
6. Evgeni Malkin, PIT
7. Mikko Koivu, MIN
8. Joe Thornton, SJS
9. Nicklas Backstrom, WSH
10. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA

Nicklas Backstrom's favorite shirt: Your girlfriend loves wearing my jersey

You would think that Nicklas Backstrom being 9th out of all NHL pivots would be cause for celebration! Instead I am ready to fight for the guy – even if my girlfriend wears his jersey. Well, if I had a girlfriend. But that’s a post for another day.

So where should Backstrom rank in this Top 10?

The center position is one of the tougher positions to quantify: They are defensively responsible for two opposing wingers, they try to win faceoffs and they have to put points on the board. Then there is the burning question: How many Cups have they won?

We should also not limit ourselves to just one season. For this exercise I am going to look at the 3-year averages to help smooth the curve a bit.

Let’s start with the easy one: Did they win a Cup? Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk and Toews have all kissed The Cup while Malkin and Toews have also won the Conn Smythe as Playoffs MVP. Without a ring, Backstrom still has some work to do to be the #1 center in the league.

Next we will analyze their offensive numbers.

I had a tweep remark: When Nick wins more faceoffs then you can bitch about him being #9. Well, here I am so . Seriously though, just because you don’t win faceoffs doesn’t mean you’re not helping your team’s offensive production. That’s why statistics like CORSI and others at Behind the Net are so valuable: They help put everything in context.

Sure he doesn't win all his faceoffs, but Nicky joined Sid and Henrik as the only three centers in the NHL last year to score over 100 points.

So yes, I agree Backstrom doesn’t win a huge amount of faceoffs. But he’s averaged 2.48 points per 60 minutes over the past 3 years (good for 6th on this list behind Crosby, Sedin, Malkin, Thornton and Datsyuk). He also was third among centers (behind Hart and Ross Trophy winner Sedin and 50 goal scorer Crosby) in points per 60 minutes in 2010.

Defensively only Mike Richards and Evgeni Malkin have averaged a negative CORSI ON, meaning more shots have been directed to their own net while they were on the ice. Richards has an excuse: He started only 46.8% of the time in his own offensive zone (next lowest was Mikko Koivu at 50.4%!), while playing with below average teammates against decent competition. Malkin’s poor play came despite starting a whopping 58.17% of the time in his OWN offensive zone. Only Toews (60.9%) and Backstrom (59.17%) were higher, but both of those players had positive CORSI’s.

Backstrom’s CORSI ON (17.18) is behind only Datsyuk (22.1) and Toews (18.38). Simply put, when Nicklas Backstrom is on the ice his team gets the puck to the net – a lot. And before we throw the “Of course he does, he plays with Ovechkin” argument out there, let’s keep in mind that both Toews and Datsyuk played with better linemates statistically over the past 3 years. So they too had help yet are ranked ahead of Backstrom on Dater’s Top 10. This means we can’t discount the play of Backstrom’s wingers if we are not ready to do so for the others.

If we look at Goals For and Goals Against differential as a defensive indicator, Backstrom shines here as well. He ranks second (1.31) in this group over the past 3 years trailing only Datsyuk (1.63) – who won the last three Selke awards. Last year, Backstrom led all centers (60+ games played) with 2.15.

To summarize: offensively Backstrom is middle of the Top 10 pack at 2.48 points per 60 minutes while defensively falling behind only Pavel Datsyuk and perhaps Jonathan Toews.

Now that we have the context settled: Where should Backstrom actually rank?

Some would say he is “still not [a] Top 5” center but they would be wrong. Without a Cup, sure Nicky takes a back seat to Crosby, Datsyuk and now perhaps Toews. But after that, it would be tough to argue that Nicklas Backstrom is undeserving of a Top 5 slot.

Alex Ovechkin is held pointless against the Bruins. Bummer. (Photos by Nick Wass)

The last game of the season is a curious thing. The playoffs are a sure thing, and the only matters left to question are individual achievements and not getting injured. So then, was today a bust?

The Boston Bruins, filled out by AHL call-ups, bested the Washington Capitals in 65 minutes of hockey and three rounds of a shootout.  Whatever. We’re over it.  Upward and onward.

Your final regular season bullets.

• Through nearly 26 minutes of time, Alex Ovechkin had 0 assists and goals, ending his pursuit of Art Ross and jeopardizing his claim on Rocket Richard. Ovie did have 5 shots on goal, though, so his absence from the board should be viewed through the prism of Tim Thomas‘ masterful performance in net.
• Ovie was chasing those trophies awfully hard. At various points in the game we saw the GR8 combined with not-so-classic partners like Eric Belanger and David Steckel. Only Mike Green was on the ice longer.
• Speaking of @GreenLife52, no player gave us stronger pangs of anxiety than this one. Every race to the corners, every shoulder hit, every spleen-splitting blocked shot, every elbow to the face could have put Mike in the same situation he was in last spring. Let’s hope the bruises he accrued today fade quickly, and he’ll be ready to shut down [INSERT ROUND-1 OPPONENT HERE].
• Alex Semin‘s 40th goal on the season looked like a breeze. Semin was one of the most dialed-in players today, even if he did cough up the puck three times. Semin continues to regularly trade places with Mike Knuble on the top and second lines, and we think that’s great.
• No, really. Mike Knuble + Brooks Laich = Hell for goalies.
• Originally touted as a tough-guy enforcer, Jason Chimera hadn’t really shown us his teeth too often this season. When Chimmer charged (or was shoved into) Tim Thomas, he was greeted with a headlock and four quick blockerpads to the face. Jason was remarkably restrained in this spar, but after returning from his interference penalty, he immediately returned to Timmy’s grill. That plus his crosscheck in front of the net earned Jason fourteen minutes inside the Jason Chimera box. Someone go check to make sure he’s not still there.
• Semyon Varlamov had a series of late-game saves that may have made this game worth it. Seeing the kid scoot from post to post, making wild swats at errant pucks, reminded me of a goalie we met last spring who was capable of anything. Welcome back, bud!
• The shoot-out line up was a parade of WTFery. Boyd Gordon and Matt Bradley are two of my favorite players, but they were easily outclassed by Tim Thomas. I get it though, BB wanted to give these hard workers a nod. Still, I would have paid any price to see Jason Chimera score the GWG in a one-on-one. Alas, it was not to be.
• There’s an old playoffs word for “overtime loss.”  Loss.

Congratulations to Henrik Sedin for his presumptive win for the Art Ross Trophy. Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby may yet lay claim to the Rocket Richard. No matter. They are all excellent players, but it’s time for our focus to shift. There’s a 35 lbs. cup of infinite glory lying it wait for the Washington Capitals. Separating the two are at least 16 games of the best hockey we may ever see.

Shave your face, friends. This may be your last chance for a while.

With the regular season winding down it’s only fitting we should start seeing opinions on who should win the Hart Trophy, “given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.”

Edward Fraser feels there are a quintet of contenders while Ken Campbell argues Henrik Sedin deserves to be included in the conversation but doesn’t deserve to win it. Tim Morgan thinks both Gaborik and Lundqvist deserve nominations but when it comes down to it, based on previous voting, it is shaping up to be a two-horse race: Alex Ovechkin and Henrik Sedin.  (Sorry Sidney, maybe next year?)

Since 1998-9 (the first year of the Maurice Richard Trophy) the voters seem to reward players that rank 1st or 2nd in Points for the regular season. Only G Jose Theodore (2001-2002) and D Chris Pronger (1999-2000) are the exceptions during this time frame.

That leads me to believe it will come down to Ovechkin and Sedin despite the outcome as they battle for the Art Ross Trophy.

So lets look at the contenders:

Henrik Sedin

Henrik has really decoupled himself from his twin brother this season, and showed he is the driving force behind Vancouver’s success this season. And while he may not be as dynamic as Ovechkin (or Crosby for that matter) Henrik has quietly shown the ability to be the exact type of player Vancouver has needed: Never going longer than four games without a point this season.

Alex Ovechkin

If you ignore the suspensions and Russia’s let-down in the Olympics, the biggest knock on the reigning Hart winner’s chances to threepeat (something which only two other players have ever done: Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky) seems to be that the Caps went 7-2-1 without him in the lineup this season. But as Ed Frankovic correctly points out 4 of those wins came against Florida and the two losses were to New Jersey, a team the Caps could potentially see in the playoffs. With Ovechkin in the lineup the Caps went 1-0-1 against those same Devils. And Nate Ewell reminded us last night, Caps have a better record with Ovi as captain (.821) than they did when he was out of the lineup (.750)

Plus, Sedin is only close to Ovechkin in Total Points because he has played in 10(!) more games than Ovechkin. If we adjust Ovechkin’s stats to an 82 game season, the point totals look much different:

1. Alexander Ovechkin, 124
2. Henrik Sedin, 109

And then we aren’t even having a debate. So look for Ovechkin to become the NHL’s third threepeat Hart Trophy winner.