Photo credit: Nick Wass

Dale Hunter hoped to lead the Washington Capitals to victory in his first game as head coach. He’d have to go through Jaroslav Halak to get there, but more importantly he’d have to get a flagging Capitals offense moving.

Alex Ovechkin threaded the needle, setting up Nick Backstrom to record the first goal of the game. T.J. Oshie cleaned up a Alex Steen’s slapshot to tie the score at 1-1. Matt D’Agostini caught a lucky bounce and wrapped it around to give St. Louis the lead. Despite a late-game flurry, it ended like that. Blues beat Caps 2-1.

• Tomas Vokoun got his 20th career assist on the Backstrom goal. Also, 28 saves for the big guy, which should have been enough for a win.
• Matt Hendricks had a little scrap with Scott Nichol during the third period, perhaps just to give Alex Semin some company in the 30+ PIM club.
• 

  As seen on TV: Dave Prior, Olie Kolzig, Neil Greenberg

  Speaking of which, no penalties for Alex Semin. This is apparently worth a bullet now.
• The leadership of Jason Arnott has been dearly lacking among the Capitals this season. Off-season pick-up Troy Brouwer welcomed Jason back to Verizon Center with a stick in the face. Arnott bled, and the Caps had to kill a double minor.
• That 5-minute window of penalty killing in the second period doomed Washington’s offensive life. Natch.
• Alex Ovechkin‘s assist on the Backstrom goal was lovely and smart, but he otherwise continued to struggle with the puck. Ovechkin did not fire his first shot on goal until the third period. That could be expected as AO missed a big chunk of play during the 2nd period PK epoch. Total ice-time? 16:26, second lowest of the season.
• Catching a puck somewhere on his arm, Marcus Johansson left the ice at the tail end of the second period. He returned in the third period apparently unfazed.
• Jaroslav Halak had to stop hundreds of pucks to beat the Capitals in the 2010 playoffs. Tonight he needed only stop 18.
• The troubled Washington power play improved not even a little tonight. Apparently they don’t commit a lot of penalties in St. Louis.
• Here’s a link to the Corsi/Fenwick totals for this game. Even if you don’t understand the stats, just absorb all the negative numbers next to Caps players’ names and wallow in sadness.
• No goals against for Roman Hamrlik. This is apparently worth a bullet now.

With a marginally improved– or at least pleasantly masked– defensive performance, the Caps nonetheless struggled in the offensive zone. They got pushed to the margins, where they’d either cycle ineffectually or turn it over. More frequently, zone entries would be aborted by a St. Louis poke check or poor puck  control in general.

Joe B suit of the night

Those who expected Dale Hunter to be a panacea– an instant cure– deserve their disappointment. We must remain patient as this team tries to find itself. Installing a Capitals institution behind the bench might kick start the process, but we fans need to prepare ourselves for a month-long peyote-adled animal spirit journey.

We’ll need to wait a bit longer to see what kind of change Hunter can effect. Maybe all the way to Thursday, when Sidney Crosby and the Penguins bring their infuriatingly excellent brand of hockey to Chinatown.

But we can’t wait too long. This roster is packed to the salary cap, designed to win a championship soon. Scapegoating a coach might buy some time, but there is still a ticking clock for this team.

David Backes. (Photo credit: Jamie Sabau)

Doug Johnson of the PuckBuddys writes. Follow @PuckBuddys on Twitter.

The Unhappy and Unfunny Edition

The Pre-Game Practice

So. Anything happen over your holiday weekend?

Oof. Coach Juggles was jiggled out of the Caps hierarchy sometime late last week, so go the reports. But those who wielded the ax only announced it Monday morning. As if on Sunday we didn’t suspect our Regent would be decapitated; or that on Monday, after the quartering, they would all just expect us to blandly melt back into the blah-blah of our desperate little lives.

There’s been plenty of blah online in the last 36 hours, and in general on the Caps bench this season. Fine. But do not number us, your humble PuckBuddys, as among those celebrating the call for Boudreau’s head.

It is the right of every sovereign to decapitate those they wish…or at least was, in Elizabeth’s days. But who are we kidding? Today, it’s the unquestioned right of every sovereign owner of an NHL franchise – your Majesty – to chop off the head of any servant they see fit. Assuming they can buy out their contract.

Nobody’s Hot or Not Today

We just don’t care about our “clever” format tonight, listing players to watch for or conditions to be concerned about, all wrapped in a clever gumball cellophane. We now only have a growing list of worries, some of which we’ll enumerate, some you can fill in the blanks.

• Who’s #1? We saw plenty of juggling on the lines this season; and last, as Coach Mustard struggled to find the magic combination. We say: Caps, put your first line first: Semin, Backstrom and Ovechkin. Loose them on the ice and see what they can do. Do not hobble them with D-strategems they just haven’t adopted. Two games. See what they do. If they don’t do, you begin to have your larger answer.
• Confidence in the Net. We’ve not felt either Tomas Vokoun or Michal Neuvirth have performed to their abilities this season. Blame anything – just fix it. Vokoun is, without exception, an elite NHL goaltender in his prime. Neuvy has mad skills. Either of them is quality, but neither has performed well. Coach Hunter: pick one, give him a try, and let him and your entire team know you have confidence in them.
• D-Train. What’s been with the juggling on this line lately? Dennis Wideman and Roman Hamrlik? Are you trying to prove something to somebody (i.e., those who have written the checks?) Stop it. Tinker with the D a little, but not constantly. That’s, in part, how other teams capitalize on our flat-footed act – you need players who know how to read each other, and have been through this before. Repeat: Stop it. Pick a D and commit. That, or just go home.
• 8-10. Anyone waking up early and rubbing their eyes in an Ambien haze repeat after me: the Blues are 8 for 10 in the last 10 games. The Wings? Pittsburgh? Calgary? the Bolts? All falling before the Blues. And consider more: the Wings are on one of the hottest of hot streaks going. The Penguins (*barf*) are up to their old winning ways. Tampa is within one point of pwning us.
• The Stars Come Out. New coach, new era. Doesn’t mean new performance, but we do expect that every Capital who can draw laces on his skates will be performing at his very, very best on Tuesday. And Thursday. And Saturday. Coach Hunter, given his checkered past, we expect will not hesitate to put his boot in the ass of any underperforming Capital. And, for the moment, we expect his Most Gracious Monarch will consent to this treatment. But not, we expect, for long. For ultimately, many of the players hold serious money cards. Coaches are – tragically – expendable. Star players aren’t.
• Hello Friends, Old and New. Jason Arnott – who we said should NOT HAVE BEEN RELEASED- is doing just fine in St. Louis, thank you very much, at 4G, 6A and a +10. Jerk. Mind also that David Backes (9-16-+6) and consistent pest Matt D’Agonstini (5-4-+12) have been screwing things up for opponents of late. That and Jaroslav Halak (just 49 GA this season) in the net makes for a tough night. That and some guy who should be hosting his own restaurant, Pietrangelo or something, are making a muss of the ice lately.
• East St. Louis Toodle-Oo. We are ready to say Toodle-Oo to this last two week period, and ready to see the Blues in defeat in our rear-view mirror. New coach = new mirror. We’re looking ahead, and ready to put you this behind us.

The Shoot Out

We’ve actually read a fair amount of sane commentary about Coach Boudreau’s tenure of the Capitals…amid the tides of bile rushing in and out along our coastline. Was Bruce no longer what the squad respected? Did the ‘players coach’ become too close to effectively lower the boom? Do the problems lie with the coaching staff, the head office, or the players themselves? And who will we rush to blame when the Caps again fall into a slump, which inevitably, they will – precisely because every team does?

No. Nobody really wants to engage on this. It’s ‘Goodbye Bruce’, and ‘Hello Hunter!’

We welcome Coach Hunter, and wish him all the very best.

But Coach: beware the unanswered questions. It is precisely those that will devour you in the future. Just look at your predecessor.

Varlamov takes on all comers. (Photo credit: Tom Gannam)

[Ed. note: Peter has a fever and is kind of loopy. Go easy on him.]

Halak defeated thanks to Brooks Laich. (Photo credit: Tom Gannam)

Tonight the Washington Capitals had their first chance to exact vengeance on Jaroslav Halak since he shut the Caps down in the playoffs. Now suiting up with the St. Louis Blues, Halak is the most foreboding embodiment of the Capitals’ postseason woes besides perhaps the Caps themselves. In an uneven effort, the Caps managed to exorcise- at least partially- those Halak-faced demons. But the big story was Semyon Varlamov, who padded his highlight reel with some improbable, firecracker saves.

Brooks Laich scored a PPG on the Caps second shot of the night, a high puck right up in Halak’s face. Boyd Gordon recorded his first tally of the year by Jedi-mind-tricking Halak to bobble the puck in himself for the second time this year. The Blues woke up with a screened spin-shot from Alexander Steen that Varly never saw coming. In the third period, Knuble and Backstrom swapped roles: near the paint, 19 converted the rebound off 22′s high-slot slapshot. In the final minute, with the Blues net abdicated, Alex Ovechkin gave Nick Backstrom the empty-net goal layup. Caps beat Blues 4-1.

Bullets for the Blues.

• The Caps had a miserable time in their own zone, allowing many second and third and fourth and nth chances for the Blues. The blueliners lost fights in the corners, and the forwards couldn’t break out. Luckily, Semyon Varlamov was there to bail them out every time: 37 saves on 38 shots.
• The Blues led the Capitals in scoring chances 16 to 11.  The Capitals have the dubious distinction of having two chances both for and against while on powerplay. Varly, meanwhile, has improved his scoring chance save percentage to .895 (.850 is considered good).
• For the second game in a week, Varly was mousetrapped.
  Mousetrap (noun) – the act of pushing the net up and over the goalie’s head so that he becomes stuck under it not unlike in that popular Hasbro board game.
• Tomas Fleischmann was awfully quiet tonight. Too quiet…
• With faceoff specialist David Steckel out, Matt Hendricks (10 for 13) and Boyd Gordon (11 for 17) stepped it up while on the dot.
• Yeah, D.J. King got the secondary assist on that Boyd Gordon (read: Halak) goal, but does that really count? The oft-scratched brute recorded almost 8 minutes of ice time, but he didn’t get to fight his buddy Cam Janssen, who did not suit up tonight. Kind of makes Bruce looks like a chump for scratching Steckel, eh?
• Mike Green, who may or may not be injured, had 13 defensive zone starts tonight, but held his own in an otherwise quiet game.
• Did anyone feel cognitive dissonance when they played Katy Perry songs at a “Blues” game? St. Louis should play music only by people with nicknames like “Catfish” or “the Goose”.
• On Sunday we said the “playmaking, assist-taking team player” version of Alex Ovechkin may actually be the more exciting version. Is there any better of evidence of that than his selfless pass to Nicky for the empty-netter? An empty net is usually catnip to the Great 8. It’s invigorating to see this emerging maturity in the team’s captain. I don’t care if the goals ever come.
• Check out Matt Bradley’s face here. Just do it.

Joe B's suit of the night

It wasn’t a perfect game by any means. The defensive effort was shambolic, but Varlamov brought out his best goalie work of the year to counteract it. Jaroslav Halak, the goaltender haunting so many Caps forwards’ nightmares, had a little more Mr. Magoo in him than we remembered.  Does that mitigate the sense of relief in beating such a vaunted goalie? Not really, no.

Enjoy this first night of Hanukkah. Tomorrow night the Caps will do battle with the kinda-hot Dallas Stars. We’ll see you then.

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg.

Trust us, the Russian Machine feels your pain. (Photo by Harry E. Walker/MCT. Top by Nick Wass)

I was completely convinced that this year was going to be the year for the Washington Capitals. I thought they had the right mix of youthful, talented players and solid veteran leadership, I thought they had a defense just good enough to get them by and I thought that with unquestionably, two of the top ten best players in the world in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, this offense could make magic happen in the postseason and persevere through any hardship. Plus, if the Capitals were still following the same trajectory that Pittsburgh had followed since the lockout in 2004-05, it was actually predetermined, this year was going to be our year.

But sadly, our dreams of drinking champagne and other adult beverages from Lord Stanley’s Cup did not materialize. And now we’re left with another summer full of what-if’s and a bunch of regular season memories that seem to elicit more bewilderment than joy, more anger than hope.

I’ve tried to wrap my head around this season for a few days now, and I’ve come to a few solid conclusions. Why did the Washington Capitals lose to the eight-seeded team in the first round of the playoffs, a team in which they finished 33 points ahead of in the standings, after looking nearly unbeatable for three quarters of the season? Let’s just say, sometimes in the end, it’s not how talented you are, but how much you evolve your game to your competition that truly matters.

I. Two Teams Going In Different Directions.

Winning only three of their final 11 games, Montreal plummeted from sixth to eighth place and needed at least a point in its final game to clinch a playoff berth. But the Habs found their game at the right time, while the Capitals could never consistently play theirs. Why?

I feel really weird typing this, but the Capitals might have been too good for their own good. Following the 5-4 Snovechkin Victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins Feburary 7th, the team had won a club record 14 straight games and found themselves comfortably atop the Eastern Conference ladder. And then the Olympics happened.

When the team reunited from its 2-week hiatus on March 1st, the same mojo that was prevalent during the 14-game winning streak only appeared scantly for the rest of the season. The foot had been let somewhat off the gas, and it was understandable. We endured a few listless performances, we watched the players find motivation in personal goals (because there was no more to be had team-wise) and the team coasted into the playoffs for the second straight year.

Seemingly avoiding adversity as a team the entire year, the Capitals entered the playoffs brimming with confidence. They were the unquestioned best team in the league.

II. Confidence Be Damned.

With the series in their favour at 3-1, the Capitals had an opportunity in front of their home crowd to put the Montreal Canadiens away and advance to the second round to play the Flyers, which was basically an open invitation to the Eastern Conference Finals and a rematch with the Pittsburgh Penguins. You know, the same Penguins team that we swept in four games during the regular season and knocked us out of the playoffs last year. Revenge could finally be ours! Crosby sucks! Screw your gold medal, Sid. We’re going to have the thing that really matters!

But instead of putting the Habs away, the Capitals came out flat for the first 10 minutes of Game 5, overlooked its opponent (like I just did up there) and at points played somewhat arrogantly. They took a 2-0 deficit into the locker room, and when they came out for the second period, they found a Montreal Canadiens team that had narrowed its focus, found its niche defensively and would do whatever it’d take to slay the evil goliath.

Jaroslav Halak stopped 37 of 38 shots that night and 131 of 134 shots overall in the final three games, and for the first time since the current playoff format was adopted in 1994, an eighth-seeded team rallied from a 3-1 series deficit against a No. 1 seed. Why? Because the Habs found a game plan that worked.

CBC’S Elliotte Friedman explains:

There is a little bit of hockey snobbery when it comes to picking apart the Capitals, with critics crowing that they were right in saying, “You can’t win this way.” That’s not completely true. The NHL doesn’t keep zone possession stats anymore, but Washington dominated. When you include blocked and missed shots, the Capitals took 576 for the series, to Montreal’s 381. (Per game average: 82-54.) Canadiens goalie Jaroslav Halak was unbelievable.

However, what this series showed was, despite the Caps’ firepower, you can game-plan for their attack. For example, Washington loves stretch passes. The Canadiens sat back, making it very difficult for them to get through. And, even if they did, players receiving these passes were surrounded.

III. Some Players Were Unable To Evolve Their Game

It was during the second period of Game 6 when I threw my hands up in disbelief and shouted at my TV, “What are you doing, Alex??!?!”

My exasperation was primarily directed at Alex Semin, who was trying to shoot the puck through three Canadiens defenders. That wasn’t what pissed me off though. It was when Sasha Minor skated hard to the boards, retrieved his blocked shot and then defiantly tried to fire again through the same three guys. The result? Another blocked shot and Montreal taking possession of the puck.

While never flagging in his confidence, Semin’s frustration was palpable at times, and he seemed oblivious of the changes he needed to make on the ice.  It was a microcosm of the entire series.

While I don’t question the heart of this team, their overall talent or their sheer determination to win, I sometimes worry about their collective psyches and their maturity level. For example, some of these guys are already such great players at such a young age, that at times of adversity, they are apt to change. Thankfully, when this happens, most of the guys on the Capitals roster dig in and play within their means (John Carlson, Jeff Schultz, Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon & Semyon Varlamov).

But there are a few notable exceptions. Some find a way to combine determination with stubbornness (Alex Semin, Alex Ovechkin). Others lose confidence in their ability and start making uncharacteristic decisions with the puck when they try to do too much (Mike Green, Tomas Fleichmann).

By the end of Game 6, I knew that the Montreal Canadiens had figured out how to contain Alex Ovechkin and the first line. But nothing changed. Again, Elliotte Friedman details how he believes Alex Ovechkin can improve:

On their lone day off between the stunning upset of Washington and the next series with Pittsburgh, the Canadiens’ Josh Gorges and Hal Gill talked about defending Ovechkin.

“Generally, you know what’s coming,” Gorges said. “When he comes in on the off-wing, he’ll try to step to the middle and shoot through you. You can bait him into that.”

“If you do go to the middle, he will try to go to the outside,” Gill added.

Several of the Penguins described him as an “east/west” player as opposed to a “north/south” one. Fact is, for all of his terrific talent, Ovechkin has become easier to defend. He can still blow by you, but a well-prepared team knows exactly what’s coming. Clearly, the Canadiens did.

Boudreau has repeatedly told reporters who ask if Ovechkin shoots too much that “a shot off his stick is better than anything else we can do.” That’s not the case anymore. Opponents know they can lay off Ovechkin’s linemates because he isn’t so interested in using them.

“Look at what happened in the final minutes of Game 7,” another player said. “He tried to go by everybody by himself.”

“Look at their power play,” said an opposing coach. “I’m looking at Ovechkin with the puck and I’m afraid of all the talent around him. There’s [Nicklas] Backstrom. There’s [Alexander] Semin. There’s [Mike] Green. They’ve got three other guys who can kill you. And he’s taking them out of the game.”

I know what you’re thinking: This is piling on. No, it isn’t. It’s constructive criticism. It’s what Ovechkin must do to reach the next level.

Elliotte also dishes on MG52′s lack of confidence:

Green is another guy who I think is overly affected by what others think of him. The high-scoring defenceman was hurt by not being selected to the Canadian Olympic team, and good for that. If he wasn’t upset, then it didn’t matter enough to him.

But, in the playoffs, he looked like a guy caught between what he wanted to be and what he thought others feel he should be. You can’t play like that. It’s the old Pinball Clemons line: “Paralysis by analysis.”

Green made it to the NHL by taking risks and being himself. He has to get back to that or he’s not useful. You can’t please everyone. Worry about the guys who sign your paycheques first.

III. The Defense Doesn’t Have An Anchor

In Game 7, the best defenseman on the ice was Jeff Schultz, and he was easy to pick out. He played physical, he finished his checks, he shot the puck from the point with authority, and moved the puck beautifully out of his own zone. I had never seen Sarge play this fired up, but it gave me great hope for the future that he can be more than a highly effective, mostly-unnoticeable player on the ice. Maybe Mr. Nasty can be more than an ironic nickname, no?

That being said, Mike Green should have been that guy, but wasn’t. While Jeff Schultz is an extremely important role-player on this team, he may not be the best fit with Mike Green on the first defensive pairing.

At 24 years old, Mike Green is at an early crossroads in his career. While he is generally recognized by his peers as one of the best defensemen in the league, he’s also harangued by the haters who think he’s a glorified fourth forward and cannot play defense. The criticism is unjust and has always been undeserved. While I’ve seen nearly every game Green has played in his entire career, I must levy this criticism: This was the first year Green Life has taken a slight step back in terms of his effectiveness on the ice. Green will probably win the Norris Trophy based on his incredible plus minus, high point total and his rededication to defense this year, but he was much more of an elite and important player for the Capitals one season ago.

Last year, Green played with confidence, creativity, and a reckless abandon. This year in an effort to impress Canadian National Team GM Steve Yzerman, Green concentrated more on his defense – since it’s what they were looking for – and got snubbed anyways. It seemed like he lost a part of himself along the way.

Green needs an elite veteran defender beside him, someone is a leader on the ice and in the locker room and someone who can restore Green’s creative freedom on offense. When the Capitals lost out on trading for Chris Pronger a few years ago, the Capitals lost a prime opportunity to add precisely that guy. Sure free-agent defenceman Anton Volchenkov would be a good fit, but he will also be very expensive to land.

Most importantly, everyone must forgive Mike Green for the two noticeable gaffes he had in Game 7. The kid is sensitive and needs to regain his confidence. I’m sure he’ll be replaying game 7 in his mind the entire summer.  I hope it drives him to improve, not just haunt him.

It’s important to remember that the Capitals only gave up 20 goals in the 7-game series. And if you ignore the outlier that was game 2, it was 15 goals in 6 games. This team played good enough defense and had good enough goaltending to win the series, especially in the series’s deciding game. It was the offense that came up short.

IV. The Status Quo Isn’t That Bad

In the last few days I’ve come across some strong opinions regarding my favorite team that seem ridiculous. Some people have questioned Alex Ovechkin’s leadership and wondered if he still should be Captain of the team. Some of our commenters have requested that we dump Mike Green and Alex Semin. I’ve been told by my friends that on Talk Radio, they’ve openly discussed firing Bruce Boudreau for losing 3 out of his 4 playoff series and not making the moves necessary on the ice to win.

Listen: the Washington Capitals are a young, talented, maturing team. Give them a freaking break. They have a head coach that has only three years of NHL experience. Their core players are all under the age of 25. This loss is not the end of the world even though it’s incredibly tough to swallow. The window for this team to win a championship is going to be open for a long time. Let’s tinker with the roster, not throw a hand grenade at it.

The New York Post’s Larry Brooks expounds on this better than I can:

By the summer of 1979, the Islanders had been knocked out of the playoffs by a lower seed for the second consecutive year, Al Arbour was perceived as a coach who couldn’t win the big one, and Bryan Trottier was regarded as a great regular-season player who couldn’t raise his game in the postseason.

But without knee-jerking, GM Bill Torrey went to work, first reaffirming his confidence in Arbour, then remaking his team by adding Dave Langevin, Gord Lane and Ken Morrow to the defense while subtracting Gerry Hart, Pat Price and Dave Lewis; by adding winger Duane Sutter while deleting captain Ed Westfall; and, finally, by pulling off the signal trade for Butch Goring that cost Lewis and peoples’ choice Billy Harris.

Four years later, the Islanders had established themselves as arguably the greatest team in NHL history while Trottier, who had recorded just 27 points (5-22) over his first four years and 42 playoff games, chipped in with 107 points (37-70) in 75 games during the dynasty’s rule.

By the summer of 1996, there were questions about Steve Yzerman’s leadership ability while the Red Wings were regarded as a classic model of underachievement, regular-season wonders who were postseason chokers after humiliating elimination three years running to lower seeds, including a first-round loss to San Jose in 1994, a sweep in the Finals by the Devils in 1995 and the retreat in the ’96 Westerns when confronted by the Avalanche.

But without knee-jerking, GM Ken Holland went to work, reaffirming his faith in head coach Scotty Bowman, then remaking his team by replacing Paul Coffey, Keith Primeau, Dino Ciccarelli and Mike Ramsey with Brendan Shanahan, Larry Murphy, Bob Rouse and Aaron Ward, the deal for Shanahan equally as significant to Detroit as the deal for Goring was on the Island.

Two years later, the Red Wings had won consecutive Cups on their way to three in six years and the four in 11 that have established Detroit as the NHL’s model franchise.

Which is all to suggest there is no need for Capitals GM George McPhee or owner Ted Leonsis to panic in the aftermath of the seven-game upset defeat to Montreal, no need to tear down the foundation of the league’s most entertaining and polarizing team, but it will be necessary to make significant moves to augment and transform the nucleus in order to attain its manifest destiny.

Let’s try to look at the positives:  with more playing time, Eric Fehr looks like he has the potential to score 35-40 goals per season. Nicklas Backstrom went over 100 points for the first time in his career and has finally found confidence in his shot. At only 20, John Carlson was the best defenseman on the team down the stretch. Karl Alzner, much like Jeff Schultz, is a highly effective shutdown defenseman that you’ll only notice on the ice if you look for him.

Upsets happen. Letdowns happen. Let’s hope this aberration strengthens the team’s will.  This is the humble pie that the Caps needed so that they may look at themselves in the mirror and address their flaws. We need to be positive this summer. We will not be sad. This was a good year.

Next year can be even better.

The Washington Capitals have forgotten how to score. Except for Eric Fehr’s half-forgotten memory of a goal in the third period, the high-scoring Caps were completely impotent in their pathetic 4-1 loss to the Canadiens. You can chalk it up to Jaroslav Halak’s herculean 53-save night, the brownian motion of the Caps’ powerplay, or the ire of hockey gods at my shaving– it doesn’t matter. The Caps were found wanting in every metric.

We usually dedicate the segment of the game recap to highlights, but I can recall none tonight. This game was a 60-minute parade of sadness: the white team buzzing about sending ineffectual lobs at the net for King Kong Halak to swat casually. While the hockey tastemakers may spend the night picking players worthy of scorn, we’re going to cast a wide net. The whole of the Capitals roster failed to play up to level of the Habs.

Boo freaking hoo.

• Habs goalie Jaroslav Halak‘s unholy pact with 7th-century Carpathian sorcerer Janko Nepomuk Draždiak seems to have paid off nicely as only one of the Caps FIFTY FREAKING FOUR shots passed him. There’s no way he could repeat this performance Wednesday Night. … ::gulps:: right?
• Eric Fehr is the guy you want scoring the first Caps goal of every game, but that goal really should come before 55 minutes into regulation. We dig his 7 goals in 10 games against the Habs this year, but trying to further elaborate on it right now would be like watching a French movie without English subtitles.
• If Boyd Gordon is so pimp, why did he play only 7:39?
• Tripping and diving will never be coincident. If one happened, the other one did not.
• That reminds me, God I hate Maxim Lapierre. I’m not sure why the Hockey Gods decided to reward his acts of cowardice (two unsportsmanlike minors for diving) tonight, but let’s look at this positively, I think I found a new bulls-eye for my dartboard.
• This might be off tangent, but what the hell is wrong with Markov’s head here? His face looks like a fifth grader’s clay project that melted in the kiln.
• The Capitals Powerplay is a mess. No wait, a mess is what’s in a baby’s diaper. This is a freaking disaster. In the regular season, the Caps #1 Rated Powerplay was 25.2%, a mere 3.4% better than the second place team, the Nads. Now, the Caps are mired in a 1 for 30 slump, which is 3.3% for those counting at home. The problem is that everyone’s pressing. Where is everyone’s confidence? Why does the regular season feel like it was 7 months ago? On the Caps wasted 5 on 3, no one was positioned right, and even though there were no passing lanes, Sasha Minor and Nicklas Backstrom tried to force the issue anyways. And that’s when I reached for the Bottle of Jack. The Canadiens clearly know what the Capitals are trying to do. How about we try something different? You know, get some guys in front of the net, screen the goalie and put a rebound home. What? That kind of goal is not pretty enough for this team? I’m sorry.

But have no fear Caps Fans. On SportsNite, Craig Laughlin declared that the Capitals need to “STAY THE COURSE.” Which is always what I want to hear when the Capitals’ Season of Destiny is headed straight towards the Cliffs of Insanity. But now, all we’re left with are questions. Should Theo start over Varly for Game 7? Should Flash be exiled to the Pressbox for his ghost-like play during this series? Will Alex Semin ever score a goal again?

We’ll let you guys debate those answers in the comments below. But at least the Habs have already jinxed themselves. Let’s hope it works. We’ll see you Wednesday.

And one last thing: Don’t. Shave. Your. Beards.

One of the great things about the internet is that different people can make advancements in a field (like hockey analysis) that work together, build off each other, and provide new ideas and techniques that everyone can utilize. It’s a very cool phenomenon.

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2010/1/10/1233023/price-halak-the-stats-december-2009

Chris Boyle compares Montreal Canadiens goalies Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak with some really great, in-depth analysis. He breaks down the quality of the goals each allowed into good, bad, and suspect. There are graphics for where in the net goals where scored, including some breakdowns of the circumstances of some of the goals (who, from where, type of shot, etc). There’s a look at save percentage on shots from various distances. Just fantastic work, all around.

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/1/6/1234466/how-much-do-ufas-and-rfas-cost-per

Hawerchuk looks at the players signed last off-season and their projections for this season to get an idea of the going rate of a win.

For unrestricted free agents it was $2.23 M per projected win, and for restricted free agents it was $1.33 M per projected win.

The 40% discount rate jibes well with my intuition, since in Major League Baseball a player in his three arbitration years will get about an 60%-40%-20% discount off of full market value in successive years. That averages out to the same 40%.

I had been using $3 M per win as the going rate on the free agent market, so it’s good to have that figure updated.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3288#more-3288

Countering: “Generally, what sets the NHL apart from the far more predictable (and parity-free) NBA is the curious effect that team play and chemistry, coaching and camaraderie can have on results.”

With: “The more opportunities you give to the better team, the more likely skill will win out.

In the other post that I’ve linked, he did some math and concluded that, to have the same reliability in terms of knowing the strength of a given team, you’d need a 32 game schedule in the NBA, a 28 game schedule in the NFL, an 82 game schedule in the NHL and a 162 game schedule in MLB. This, I think, gives rise to an alternate theory to “team play, chemistry, coaching and camaraderie” – we (or those of us who care about basketball) know a lot more about an NBA team from the preceding season’s results than we do about an NHL team… I’m inclined to think that “team play and chemistry, coaching and camaraderie” is a euphemism for variance.”

And throws in an example from Tom Tango: “Suppose, for example, that a tennis match lasted only one set. That is, a set is a match. Would Federer win 88% (or whatever it is) of his matches? No, of course not. If he’s winning 88% of his matches because he’s winning 65% (or whatever it is) of his sets, then having a one-set match means he’d only win 65% of the time. Similarly, if you had 7-game or 9-game matches (spread say over two days) then he’d win 95% or 99% of his matches. He’d look unbeatable (except for when he plays Nadal).”

Yup. Intangibles are what you reference when you don’t have something else to reference to make your point. The NBA isn’t more predictable because of chemistry – it’s more predictable because of the inherent structure of the sport.

http://campbellandwales.wordpress.com/2010/01/09/team-profile-washington-capitals/

“While a compelling narrative could be made for the New Jersey Devils, a quick look at the divisional standings shouts hosannas to the Buffalo Sabres, I continue to hold on to the belief that the Washington Capitals are the strongest team in this year’s Eastern Conference…

Green has ten goals (4 on the power play) and 31 assists. Looking at the advanced numbers, he is currently 2nd in the league (behind only Duncan Keith of the ‘Hawks) in Tom Awad’s Goals-Versus-Threshold (GVT) statistic, comparing a player’s contributions to what would be expected from a non-prospect from the AHL at +11.8. His adjusted +/- is currently +8.2. One thing worth keeping in mind, however, is his Quality of Competition score, as tracked by behindthenet.ca. At 0.021, he is only 5th among Washington blue-liners, suggesting that Boudreau may be shielding him from the best their opponents have to offer, and leaving the heavy defensive lifting to Tom Poti, big Shaone Morrisonn and bigger Jeff Schultz. With a relative +/- of 11.4 (2nd on the team), 23-year-old Schultz, a former 1st rounder may be an unsung hero on the Washington blue-line. Among regular D-men, Schultz also leads the Caps in blocked shots per 60 minutes at 5.6 and has the highest Corsi Rating (measuring the difference in shots on goal for and against while a given player is on the ice), at 7.1 among Capital defenders…

Ovechkin plays with All-World line-mates, generally teaming up with compatriot Alex Semin on the other wing, sandwiching Nicklas Backstrom, possibly the most overshadowed player in the game today…

this depth, in the forward lines as well as the back-line, and the solid goaltending provided by Varlamov, will propel the Washington Capitals to the top of the Eastern Conference in May and to the Stanley Cup Finals.”

Nice.

I also wanted to congratulate to Japers’ Rink on being ranked the top NHL Blog. I look forward to doing so in person next week.