Early Morning Skate: So, the last time we were here, we were there. Filthy Philadelphia, needing a solid road win, and feeling optimistic to start. In fact, we were all, like, yay here we gowhattheflipwasthat?! and c’mon Holtbeast get it together and then yay Groooouuubsie and boooo Max Talbot grrr grrrr and ow that traffic-cone orange makes my soul weep and that was pretty much the best summary of that ugly mess of a game I can imagine.

Mmmm…tastes like Cheez Whiz

What exactly was it that happened that terrible, cold February night at the F-U Center? Where, exactly, were manimal Troy Brouwer and Captain 8 (despite being probably the best in Red on the ice that night) and John “Towelie” Carlson and the Millionaire and his wife and the nameless rest? Certainly not there to play hard, or at least battle back through a tough start. And why was it, exactly, the Lord Supreme in His wisdom didst create that dung-heap of a burg to begin with?

Now this is our idea of a hot Fly team. Really.

You see, I’d like to chalk up that bumbling bungle of a game simply to our visiting the giant spirit suck that is Philly and its moronic fans. Like to, but cannot. Yeah, there were a couple fluky puck bounces and what-not, but those things give as much as they take. No, what we saw was a failure to launch by the Capitals after a dis-spiriting start. It was not, in any possible permutation of the concept, ‘good.’

The Puck Drop: But it’s Spring, and Easter (for some) or Maru (for others) or Passover or Nowruz or we’re just going to stop this now. Traditionally, it’s a time for rebirth and renewal and rejuvenation and reloading and all that. For the Capitals’ flock, it’s once more the race to the playoffs.

For several years now, the Capitals have demonstrated fine mettle in April, much like the pale gossamer jonquils besotting the landscape, if those jonquils were angry, snarling, forechecking, glass-smashing monsters made of steel and laser beams.

In short, there’s two ways this ends. One: we leave Filthydelphia redolent of Whiz, covered in soot and chagrin; or two, you can eat me Peter Laviolette. No wait, that’s a given. Oh yes; or two, we bounce outta Barftown and kick it into grinder gear for the coming match-ups against the Canes and ugly Islanders (revenge want now) and be the team that showed up to rub Winnipeg’s nose in its own dark, dark shame. I know which one I’m hoping for.

So let’s git ‘er done.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Snot

• Let’s just get this out of the way: what is it with you and first names, Flyers? Maxime? Jody? Zac? Zac?! Fine if you’re a British boy band, but Zac? Ugh, sign two players named Herp and Derp and you’ve got a full house.
• There’s an old adage that goes ‘What comes up must come down’, which is patently untrue if you are helium or the Blackhawks or Lindsay Lohan’s legal bills. We prefer ‘What goes down stays down,’ which we just made up but will use to prove our point. The Flyers haven’t so much been stumbling of late as they have been losing, while the Capitals overall (let’s not quibble, shall we?) have been demonstrating real hockeytude across the squad. The Flyers must therefore lose, QED.
• The Flyers do have some genuine stand-outs – Jakub Voracek and Claude Giroux and a Schenn or something – who can be good deal sealers. But like we saw in their recent outings with cross-town rivals the Pittsburgh Flightless Stenchbirds, the energy and kick appears bottled up in just a few players, while the Pens (and oh how I hate myself for saying this) work well together across the squad, and that was before getting Iggy. We were suffering from this dread condition earlier in the season, too, but have at least mitigated it. Which is better: a few star talents and a bunch of mugs, or a more even distribution of skill? Capitalism or soshulizms? Hmmm?
• I have it on good authority that Jesus would particularly like a Capitals win today.
• To be “fair and balanced” – ha! – it is true that the Crapitals have some players who feel a little like large leaden weights tied around our ankles while we’re trying to swim. Marcus Johansson appears to be skating with one eye scanning for the door. Jeff Schultz (who is probably among the most decent people around, so, sorry) might as well be eating Doritos out on the ice, and Mike Green…oof, where to start. I’ve seen more spunk among members of the Whitehills Senior Center’s “Jeopardy!” fan club. (If you’re reading, Mr. Trebek, I love your show!) Is this a “Tale of Two Teams” moment? “It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.”
• Conventional wisdom – which is never wrong I’ll have you know – has it that Adam Oates has at least one more good year here to show progress before GMGM hits the ejector button, while Coach Laviolette – which actually means “smelly cheese” in French, look it up – has but a few more games. Oooh, everyone’s getting a little snippy, aren’t they? I wonder what could be on people’s minds. I wonder…
• Rough trade. Is what’s on people’s minds, I mean. You know, like the trade deadlines? What…what did you think I meant? Ohhh…and on Easter Sunday, of all days. Hmmph. Oh, one last thing:
• JINX! Jinxjinxjinx. Doublejinx! There, you silly nannies, for those who believe in ‘jinxes’ we’ve just double-finger-crossed the jinx spirits and you can put your delicate little heads to rest now about the PuckBuddys curse, OK?

The Late Line:

While intubated in the emergency room following the Hinckley assassination attempt, President Reagan scrawled a note to one of his nurses. Cribbing from W.C. Fields, it read “All in all, I’d rather be in Philadelphia.” It was touch-and-go, but he survived.

On the whole, I’d rather we not have to be in Philadelphia. There should be a law against having to travel there on a High Holy Day, or a birthday, or any day with a “y”. But here we are. At least Jaromir Jagr isn’t around anymore (tee hee.)

Flyers lead early, Caps battle back, 4-3, but close, kids.

I saw this on eBay and I just had to have it. Capitals Sport & Decor, a memorabilia shop at Dulles Town Center, sometimes hosts signings with Washington Capitals players. They put up some of their extra signed merchandise up on eBay, and that’s where I unearthed this gem. It’s a signed 16 x 20 photo of Capitals defenseman Jeff Schultz checking Sidney Crosby down to the ice. Schultz’s signature is at bottom. To the left is an inscription that reads, “Hows the Wood Sid!”

I repeat: “Hows the Wood Sid!”

This is problematic for me. First, there should be a comma after wood to set off the direct address. Second, how’s is a contraction of how is, and should have an apostrophe. The exclamation instead of a question mark I’m gonna let slide on stylistic grounds.

…and, oh yeah, what the actual hell does “Hows the Wood Sid!” mean?

Other offerings from Capitals Sport & Decor are similarly inscribed. For example, Brooks Laich tells Sid to “Sit Down” and “Can’t Catch Me.” It seems like there’s a cottage industry of Sharpie-drawn trash talk that we’re just now discovering. More please.

Karl Alzner and Jeff Schultz ride the Metro, look miserable because they are on the Metro.

Caption contest! (Photo credit: @tombeline)

The Washington elite and tourists turned out in droves on Monday, filling the nation’s capital for the second inauguration of Barack Obama. Revelers packed the mall and filled (most) of the streets along the parade route. The crowd downtown reached around 800,000 by the time people finally got off their Metro trains, down from the estimated 1.5 million people four years ago. Members of the Washington Capitals were no exception. General Manager George McPhee — a dual citizen of the United States and Canada — scored a spot at the Canadian Embassy, a prime viewing area near the intersection of Constitution and Pennsylvania. From my view next door at the Newseum, the scene looked festive with our friends from the North putting up a large “Canada salutes Barack Obama” banner and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police patrolling their sovereign land.

McPhee wasn’t the only Cap in attendance. Matt Hendricks, an American, posted a picture of Canadians Karl Alzner and Jeff Schultz stuck on MetroRail with approximately 348,236 other people on their way downtown to view the celebrations.

The parade wasn’t much to write home about. Sadly, there were no massive inflatable Muppets. There were, however, a bunch of high school marching bands and a 40 minute delay. And then another couple thousand high school marching bands. But that’s neither here nor there. This was a day to come to together and freeze as one.

My Photos

The Presidential Limo.

The newly sworn in President Obama.

Vice President Joe Biden.

Marines march during the parade.

Photo credit: Flickr / catrinamariee

[Editor's note: Over the next however long, we'll be pondering a few ways to brighten up the hockey world. Sometimes silly, sometimes not: here are our proposals for the 2012-2013 season... whenever that may happen.]

Goals, assists, plus-minus. That’s supposed to be how you tell how good a hockey player is. When a skater’s name pops up on the CSN-Washington chyron, they show goals, assists, and plus-minus. ESPN, Yahoo, and NHL.com place plus-minus among their marquee stats for ranking players. But the more we learn about hockey and statistics, the more we know that plus-minus kind of sucks at measuring talent.

Proposal: This season, let’s throw out the plus-minus stat. In this article I’m gonna tell you why I think plus-minus has gotta go, and I’m gonna pitch a stat to replace it.

Plus-minus is a running count of a player’s goal differential. When the player’s team scores, he gets a +1; when the opposition scores, he gets a -1. There are exceptions for shorthanded and power play goals, but that’s the basic idea. Ostensibly, plus-minus is supposed to tell us the net effect a player has on his team’s fortune — as measured in goals. But it doesn’t really do that.

Plus-minus is really a team stat: measuring a player’s ability to some uncertain extent, but moreso measuring the strength of everyone on ice– with a whole lot of random chance factored in too. For example, while Jeff Schultz certainly played well in 2009-10, he was probably not the greatest player in league. But according to plus-minus, he was– leading the NHL with a monster plus-50. We Caps fans know that Jeff (who, I repeat, still played terrifically) benefited tremendously from an explosive Capitals offense (seven 20+ goal scorers), and they were lucky at shooting and stingy in net while he was on the ice.

Manny Malhotra is a victim of plus/minus.

On the other end of the spectrum we have the curious case of Manny Malhotra in Vancouver. In 2011-12 Manny posted a team-worst minus-11, but that’s not because he’s a bad hockey player. It’s actually the opposite: Coach Alain Vigneault trusted Malhotra with an astoundingly large number of faceoffs in the defensive zone (87.6%), allowing the Sedin brothers to take all the tasty ones right near the opponent’s net. In this case, Malhotra’s crummy plus-minus represents neither his talent (as the stat purports) or his team’s performance/luck (as in the case of Jeff Schultz), but rather the peculiar and successful way that player is deployed by his coach.

Aside from the examples of Manny and Jeff, plus/minus is totally hosed by dumb luck. Remember when the Capitals outshot Montreal by miles back in the 09-10 playoffs (WSH had 80 more shots and misses than MTL over 7 games), but they lost anyway? That’s because their shooting percentage was atrocious (or because Halak played like a god, whatever). Washington’s skaters in that series demonstrated all the behaviors that should lead to success in the long term, but they still got clowned by the tiny little sample (and Halak, yes, stop saying his name). Specifically there’s a fella like Alex Semin, who personally fired 44 shots in that series (which usually would be good for 3-4 goals by an average shooter or 6 from a stone-cold sniper like Semin) but instead ended up without a single goal– and a dreary even plus-minus. Shouldn’t our stat better represent the habits that lead to success rather than the vagaries of luck?

From Justin Bourne’s Systems Analyst post

Of course. So it should not have surprised us back in 2009 when Timo Seppa at Hockey Prospectus declared plus-minus as a “nonsense stat.” Or when Ryan Lambert at Puck Daddy lambasted Coach Hunter for benching Mike Knuble based on a bad plus-minus. Or when Driving Play revealed the way-too-high impact of empty netters on the stat. Or when Justin Bourne revealed its flimsiness during line changes. And so on. And so on.

There are certainly examples of excellent players with excellent plus-minus stats, but in those cases we often see similar representation by underlying numbers (the fearsome #fancystats) as well. If we are going to get rid of plus-minus, maybe we should replace it with one of those.

Our criteria for the stat to replace plus-minus are pretty straightforward:

1. We want a stat that describes a player’s contribution to the team.
2. We want to communicate that contribution using a single number.
3. We want it to be easy to understand by casual fans.
4. We want it to have a snazzy name.

It’d be nice if our magic stat eliminates the effects of shooting luck and deployment, but that would make it kind of like the holy grail/unobtanium/triforce/Katana fleet of advanced stats; I’ll settle for just doing a better job than plus-minus for now.

Maybe the most obvious candidate for a replacement stat would be a possession stat like Fenwick or Corsi. These two plus-minus-type stats count even-strength shots and misses (Corsi includes blocked shots too). Because shooting percentage doesn’t distort possession stats, Jeff Schultz wouldn’t see his numbers quite so blown up, but guys like Manny Malhotra would still look like a bum since he spends so much time in his own team’s zone. We might just have to live with that.

Like goal differential, Fenwick and Corsi are also expressed as a plus-minus, which essentially makes them counting stats– so a pretty good player that plays a lot may look better than a great one who hasn’t played as much (See: Martin Brodeur). For that reason I’d prefer if we expressed it as a ratio: the user’s Fenwick score divided by the total number of Fenwick events while that player is on the ice. So instead of just saying “Brooks Laich has a plus-38 Fenwick score this season,” we would say “Brooks Laich drives 50.5% of his team’s puck possession.” (Note: Because of the level of competition, this percentage would floats darn near 50% with extremes of around 40 and 60%.)

And here’s the part where we really sex it up: Instead of calling it something obscure like Fenwick or explaining how possession works, we can just call it Ice Tilt: “Brooks Laich is tilting the ice 54.6% in the right direction.” When he’s on the ice, the puck just seems to gravitate towards the other guy’s net– as if the ice were literally tilted that way. And it’s easy to comprehend: over 50 is happy and under 50 is sad.

Back in 09-10, Jeff Schultz wouldn’t have led the league in Ice Tilt (other hockey geeks have long used similar stats with names like FenF%), he would have ranked 151st with a 52.2% (stats from David Johnson’s hockeyanalysis.com). Doesn’t that seem a bit more in perspective to you?

Of course, Malhotra still gets screwed using Ice Tilt, ranking 19 out of 20 on the Canucks with 41.5%, so this is in no way a perfect solution. Deployment and quality of competition are still going to wreak havoc on Ice Tilt.

But despite its problems, Ice Tilt would be a great way to put plus-minus to bed. And it would be pretty cool if CSN would snapshot a player like this:

Alex Ovechkin (37 G, 47 A, 55.4% Ice Tilt)

If you’re curious, here’s how the 2011-2012 Capitals (minimum of 300 minutes) looked using Ice Tilt.

There are still bunches of shortfalls with using possession stats alone (the aforementioned Malhotra effect in particular), but I think it’s plainly superior to plus-minus. It’s pretty easy to understand and less distorted by luck. Plus, Ice Tilt is a pretty sexy name, and it immediately paints a picture of what it means. It’s still going to wobble from game-to-game, but I’m just throwing out ideas here.

The last few years have seen smart research by smart people on better ways to measure player talent and contribution. Scoring chances (laboriously tallied by folks like WaPo’s Neil Greenberg) and zone entries (which may be the big statistical breakthrough of the next year) inch us towards the ultimate goal: an objective, undistorted, and straightforward way to communicate player talent. We’re not there yet, but I think an incremental step like Ice Tilt would be good progress.

So anyway, that’s my thought– possession percentage instead of goal differential. If you’ve got a better idea or just want to call me names, use the comments below. If you’ve got your own idea for another proposal, let’s hear that too. We’ve got a lot more coming!

For the record, Ice Tilt as I’ve shown it here is David Johnson’s FenF% during 5v5, close score, adjusted for zone starts by removing events in the first 10 seconds after faceoff.

Jeff Schultz has a good, strong German name with lots of consonants, which makes it very satisfying to yell. This is fortunate, since we yelled his name a lot this season. If you yell it angrily enough, it almost feels like swearing, doesn’t it? We appreciate the small blessings.

Cap Hit: $2.75 M. Jeff Schultz is signed through 2013-14, and he will be UFA after the expiration of that contract.

Best Moment: Schultz had a couple of moments when it looked like he could be picking up the Dale Hunter spirit, including the February game against the Panthers where he was on fire, defending, hitting hard, and even drawing a boarding call. Yes, that Jeff Schultz.

Things We Said About Jeff Schultz: ”Just HIT HIM, Jeff, he’s RIGHT THERE.”

First Irrelevant Google Images Result:

Okay.

Media Consensus: “A Wideman-Schultz defensive pairing may not be the best idea.”

Spirit Animal: Beaker.

Alternate Universe Superhero Identity: Sarge

Team Role: Top-four, positional defenseman with good reach.

Execution of that Role: Schultz didn’t meet the exacting standards of Hunter Hockey, and had to stay after class for special tutoring with Jim Johnson while the other kids all went to recess. After an intense rehaul of his entire being, Schultz once again made it into the lineup for short stretches, and then on a regular basis. Unfortunately, there did not seem to be any permanent improvement — instead he got worse, becoming a weak spot to be exploited in two different systems trying to emphasize defense. On the upside, there were none of these:

Postseason Performance: Schultz began the playoffs as a part of the lineup, but defensive errors sent him back to the press box by Game Four of the first round. He got back on the ice for Game Seven and played all but one of game of the second round, and in ten games somehow managed to never be on the ice for a goal scored by the Caps.

Beard Rating: 

Photo credit: Cheryl Nichols. 

Patchy but not offensive. Three out of ten.

Likeliness to Return: Through his declining performance, Jeff Schultz has gone from being an appropriately paid top pairing defenseman to an overpaid sixth or seventh defenseman. We could be making better use of that $2.75 M. Five out of ten.

Usefulness in a Post-Apocalyptic Setting: Well. If we ever needed to reach something off a high shelf, I guess he’d come in handy. Two out of ten.

Other: Schultz participated in the 4th of July festivities at the National Archives, doing a dramatic reading of the Declaration of Independence, strong Canadian accent and all.

Overall Year-End Rating: Eight Bad Sashas.

For statistical analysis of Schultz’s season, see Japers’ Rink or Peerless Prognosticator.

Photo credit: Mitchell Layton

After the grueling march of disappointment that was Game Three, we expected a rallying effort from the Caps. But we weren’t naive enough to expect a different kind of game. We know by now that the Capitals are capable of playing only one-goal games. What we didn’t know is that they could get goals out of Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, and Mike Green in the same game. It was like 2009 up in here.

Here’s how it went:  After a battle in the corner, Alex Ovechkin ripped a one-timer that beat Lundqvist’s glove for the game’s first goal.

Artem Anisimov tied it up early in the second by beating Braden Holtby, who was left helpless when Brooks Laich and Alex Ovechkin couldn’t block a weirdly bouncing pass. Nick Backstrom reasserted the lead by tenderizing Artem Anisimov and then putting Chimera’s pass in the net. Artem Anisimov won an icing race against Jeff Schultz and set up Marian Gaborik for another tying goal through Holtby’s five-hole.

Mike Green put the Caps up with a powerplay goal late in the third. It was the game-winner. Caps beat Rangers 3-2.

In the second period, Alex Ovechkin delivered a hit on Dan Girardi that earned him a minor penalty for charging. Ovechkin’s skates clearly left the ice before the hit, raising the specter of suspension. NBC’s Mike Milbury says the hit was unacceptable and deserves a fine or suspension, Keith Jones says it was a defensive move and the charging penalty will suffice. Here’s the hit:

Apparently I’m so tainted by my biases that my opinion doesn’t matter, but I’m on Keith’s team. It looked shoulder-to-shoulder to me, although we’ve seen how Shanahan considers any kind of airborne hit equivalent to the wild west. If Ovi did indeed connect with Girardi’s noggin, the “principal point of contact” line of reasoning is irrelevant. Ovechkin is responsible for what happens when he launches himself off the ice.

Regardless, we’d really appreciate it if Ovechkin gets this out of his game. Not the dirty hits; I mean hitting in general. Uncle Ted doesn’t pay nine gazillion dollars a year so Alex can hit dudes, he does it so Alex can SCOAR MOAR GOALS. Ted can probably find $600k for some mook to hit guys, but goals are so much more precious.

Photo credit: Mitchell Layton

• Alex Ovechkin‘s goal was a happy accident made possible by an uncharacteristically rookie goof from stud Chris Kreider and a bad glove save by Henrik Lundqvist. Let’s see more of those mistakes please, kthxbye!
• Jeff Schultz is gonna get a lot of flack for losing the icing race (although icing had already been waved off) against Artem Anisimov, but the blame should be shared with the team’s Escape Goat, Dennis Wideman. Wideman allowed Anisimov to get past him, and sent the puck behind the net off his glove– nullifying the icing. But let’s not forget that Jeff Schultz led the Caps in blocks with 9 (6 more than any Caps player, 8 more than any Ranger) and looked tough throughout the game. With some better communication, this pivotal play would’ve been no big deal at all. So lay off the Giraffe. He’s still better at hockey than you are.
• We saw one of our all-time favorite traditions today: the washed-out Mike Knuble playoff goal! Along with the puck, Kanoobs was shoved into Lundqvist by Stu Bickel. The puck must’ve gone in, but there was no evidence. Besides, the officials already waved the goal off. How many times have we seen this? I can recall three Knuble goals– all potential game-winners– that have been nullified in the playoffs since 2009. That’s Mike’s style of play and a big part of why we love him, so I guess we’ve gotten used to this. The NHL has made us cynical.
• Players sort of underestimate Nick Backstrom, don’t they? He’s got the reputation of a effete Swede, so when he decked Artem Anisimov to open up ice for a big goal, everyone was shocked. Anisimov didn’t see it coming: he was skating in to give 19 a tough hit to the shoulder, but Backstrom anticipated and delivered a pre-emptive response. I’d love to see more of that kind of grit from Backstrom. He’s already a three-dimensional player with upsides in every game situation, but being a more physical player might earn him a little space to make the magic we know he can.
• Alex Semin was the only Young Gun not to score today, but it doesn’t matter. Sasha was one of the best forwards on the ice (plus-7 Fenwick, 4 shots)– and  without any of those wacky stick penalties that are so often concomitant.

Series record: Capitals 2, Rangers 2

Knotted. Like each game so far, this series is tight. The tension is high. But like your boy RG3 says: no pressure, no diamonds.

How great was it– not just to win– but to do so on the backs of the stars? Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, and Mike Green were your goal scorers today. Each of those players had a tough season: Ovi with his suspension and media scrutiny, Backstrom with a concussion, Mike Green with a defective body that is apparently no longer covered by a manufacturer’s warranty.

But here they were, playing great hockey when it mattered most.

The Capitals and Rangers are tied. We’re looking at a best-of-three series now– two in New York, one more at home. If the Caps can win, they’ll advance to the Conference Finals for the first time in more than a decade.

They can do it.

Now: go celebrate. It’s a beautiful Saturday afternoon. It’s Cinco de Mayo. It’s Free Comic Book Day. Go have a party.

Here: I’ll get you started with this dance remix of Bailamos.

Photo: Chris Gordon. Guy on TweetDeck: Adam Vingan

The Washington Capitals had only a 38% win percentage on the road this season, so getting the W Thursday night is crucial; they just can’t depend on victory away from Verizon Center. But Monday’s home loss to the Bruins was an ugly affair, and the once well composed team fell to shambles. To win Game Four, the Caps are gonna have to dig deep.

I have compiled a series of modest steps the Capitals should take to make it happen. And then we threw in the secret weapon. (Okay, we’ll tell you: more posters.)

For Alex Ovechkin: Shots > Hits

On November 13th, Alex Ovechkin said his job is “to score goals, not make the hits.” But through three games this postseason, Ovechkin has leveled 17 hits and scored just one goal. Your boy Neil Greenberg crunched the numbers and confirmed what Boudreau said: the more Ovechkin hits, the less he scores.

Being physical is great, but the Ovi’s purpose should be obvious: SCOAR MOAR GOALS. This is a big stage for Ovi, so we’re looking for a another moment that gets people making this face:

Extracurriculars Gotta Go

The Boston Bruin know their game. Sure, they play physical between the whistles, but it’s the interim where they truly shine. Whether it’s Milan Lucic Game of Death-ing Brooks Laich before a faceoff, Milan Lucic ragdolling Nick Backstrom after the first period buzzer, or Milan Lucic biting Jeff Schultz’s brittany spaniel at the botanical gardens on Wednesday, its clear that they’ve got the edge when it comes non-hockey dickishness. The Capitals would be wise not to engage the Bs in their creeping.

They’ll win instead by being what Alan May called “thick and proud”–a tough and united team that finishes their checks and knows how to get gritty — but only during the course of the normal hockey game. But when Julien’s guys want to play the pest after every play, the Caps should be ascetic. Silent, focused, tough as nails. Just walk it off.

Roll the Roster Over

Finally found an excuse to post Erskine's dog

The Caps will be without star center and cross-checking phenom Nick Backstrom in Game Four, but that’s no reason to fret. NB19 played exactly none of the Caps’ three regular-season wins over the Bruins, so we know the guys can do it without him. But while Hunter is filling Nicky’s slot, maybe it’s time to shake the whole roster up.

I love Jeff Schultz and Dennis Wideman, but the dudes have been on ice for four of the six Bruins goals. Perhaps it’s time to give the rookie Dmitry Orlov his first taste of the playoffs. Or better yet, let’s get Big John Erskine in the lineup so he can give Looch what-for one more time.

In Backstrom’s place? You already know the answer. #FreeKnuble. Mike Knuble‘s experience, leadership, and cool head can only help a Caps team that may be frazzled after getting beaten up so ferociously last time. But putting him on the fourth line to grind it out does no one any good. Kanoobs is best deployed as a net-crashing compliment to a playmaker like Alex Ovechkin or Alex Semin.

Further down the lineup, Jeff Halpern may serve as another injection of experience in relief for either Keith Aucoin or Mathieu Perreault, who cannot match the Bruins in size and don’t have the elite faceoff chops of the former Caps captain. Plus: box check.

Defense First

Paille all alone with Holtby

The Capitals weak-sauce possession game has had me queasy since December, but it doesn’t matter anymore. Results are the only thing that mean anything now, and the Caps proved that a tight defensive game can win. It’s the kind of hockey Dale Hunter said he wanted to play since the day he arrived, and now he’s getting his chance.

But Monday was ugly. The Caps surrendered four goals– many of them due to poor defensive decisions. Justin Bourne at Backhand Shelf took the Caps defense (and Mathieu Perreault in particular) to task for blowing assignments, looking clueless, and generally making it easy for Boston to get at Holtby’s net.

To win on Thursday, the Caps must recommit to defense. They’ve gotta stick to JJ’s plan and execute without the slightest deviation. If they can keep the Bruins cadre of 20-goal scorers off the boards for another game, they can steal this series.

About the penalty kill? Shh. No jinxing.

Win It For Nicky

And finally, the emotional dimension. The Capitals survived without Nick Backstrom for a huge chunk of the season, and they’re gonna have to do it again on Thursday as Backstrom serves a one-game suspension for cross-checking Rich Peverley after Game Three.

The Caps should remain cognizant of their loss and use it as fuel to perform. Just as the Caps sans Alex Ovechkin summoned a hat trick out of Mathieu Perreault against Boston, so too should their role-players emerge as goal-scorers in Game Four. The team has been wronged, aggrieved by a feckless foe, deprived of their glory. Now they must be righteous and indignant. That’s their fuel.

They’ve gotta win this one for Nicky. They don’t even need us fans antagonizing Tim Thomas this time around, they just need a united front for Our Team.

Pursuant to that goal, blog maestro Ian Oland has cooked up some crucial posters.

Same deal as always. The links below will download PDFs, which will fit snug on a 8.5″ x 11″ page. Take a reasonable amount to Chinatown, hand some out to strangers, and then camp out in front of the glass during warm-ups. Let the boys know who they’re fighting for.

RMNB’s Free Nicky Signs

Download	Download

If that doesn’t work, you can always go to Kinkos and print out a giant seagull head. That’ll really creep out Seguin.

Crash the net.

Posters by Ian Oland.

How many times have we said “this is the worst game all season”? It seems like it’s been half a dozen times at least, maybe more. Someone make a slideshow of this and get back to us, complete with sad eighties breakup music.

I don’t know if this was The Definitive Worst Game of the Season, if only because it has so much competition, but it was pretty bad. Please come down from the ledge and let’s talk about it. We’re here for you.

Zach Parise scored a pretty PP goal on a pretty pass from Patrik Elias. Michal Neuvirth let another Parise shot trickle through to make it two goals on four shots. Former Cap Dainus Zubrus closed out the first period with a slapstick falling-down third goal. Parise scored a third for the hat trick, but no hats were forthcoming at the Verizon Center, no sir. Patrick Elias capitalized on a shorthanded chance on a Caps PP. Devils beat Caps, 5-0.

• I know it’s difficult to remember, but there was actually a point in this game where the Caps weren’t getting steamrollered. Brouwer, Chimera, and Semin all had very good scoring chances in the first period, all stoned by Hedberg. I felt like it was going to happen for the Caps. It was the least accurate intuition ever.
• I was hard on Jeff Schultz last game, so credit where it’s due–he had a great shot from the point and a huge hit on Kovalchuk before the game was five minutes old tonight. Dude really has improved, a la the Jim Johnson Healthy Scratch Night School. We’ve recently and somewhat disturbingly learned that his nickname is Big Nasty, so it’s up to him now to make it so we aren’t laughing every time we hear it.
• There were only four shots on goal through the first twelve minutes of the game — the Devils ended up with only 20 SOG total. Woo, firewagon hockey. Despite this, the Devils were dancing circles around the Caps all night, looking like a team full of Gretzkys. This skillshow brought to you by the Washington Capitals’ defense, which is like unto Swiss cheese.
• The Caps allowed it to become Zach Parise night in Washington. He scored a hat trick tonight in our own stadium, and the only way I will ever forgive him for this is if he signs with the Caps this summer and plays for us until he retires, so there. Side note: he also wrapped up his exciting night by getting sandwiched by Hendricks and Laich and taking Laich’s stick to the face, so we do hope he’s not seriously hurt.
• That was the first hat trick against the Caps have allowed in the regular season since Oct 6, 2009, Mike Richards in a Caps vs. Flyers game.
• Michal Neuvirth gave up five goals on thirteen shots tonight. Perhaps “play the hot hand” should be adjusted to “play the goalie who’s in a groove until you think he might reasonably be tired and then perhaps start a goalie who might be less tired, because that’s the cool thing about having a talented tandem.”
• Speaking of giving up — the Caps have allowed 4 shorthanded goals in the last 10 games. Somehow I think that’s not on the whiteboard.
• Special thanks to the Toronto Maple Leafs for making sure this terrible game wasn’t headline news tonight — former Caps’ coach Ron Wilson was fired after the late-season collapse that has become typical of the Leafs in recent years. More than one person immediately responded to this news by suggesting Wilson return behind the bench in Washington. Thoughts, Caps fans?

Joe B suit of the night.

Well, that was about as much fun as a seasick crocodile.

Apparently a three-game streak is long enough, we were getting our expectations up too high. This doesn’t mean the playoffs run is dead, though, so there’s no reason to go spiraling back into Lord of the Flies mode just yet. Making a playoffs push doesn’t mean we’re never losing again, it means the team is trying to make things work with — let’s admit it, limited resources right now, and hopefully scraping together some points along the way. The Caps had some good chances and some very good moments early on, this was just a very, very bad night. Happens. There’s got to be pain and hardship, otherwise how will Karl Alzner write a country album about this season?

Special reminder that the Caps’ direct competition at the moment, the Florida Panthers, lost to the Jets 7-0 last night. The embarrassing mediocrity that is the Southeast Division may yet be this team’s saving grace, but if it’s going to happen they will need to play nothing like they played tonight, ever, ever again. Losing like this makes it feel like season is over, but surprisingly the Caps will still be allowed to play 18 more games after this — all we can do is hope that they’re ready to play them.

Go Caps.

The PreGame: Close your eyes for a moment. Now fling your head out the window.

Wait. Stop that. Open window, fling head, close eyes.

Better. Breathe deep…deeplier deep. Now, what do you smell out there? Summer? Winter? Victory? Streak?

Us? We get mulch, daffodils and notes of flattened street rat. But we much prefer these others. Summer – remember buoyancy and cautious cockiness? Winter; well, early winter means Christmas, and Christmas last was a Capsmas miracle against the Devils, so thank you Baby Jesus!

Victory? Contrary to Maj. Kilgore, victory doesn’t smell like napalm in the morning.  Rather it’s a man-handling of the Habs, a swift start and sustained margin against the Leafs, and a ‘You-Ain’t-Gonna-Win” sass against the dreadful Islanders, all in a row. Yum.

And Streak? Actually, we haven’t really smelled that this year for a long, long time. But still, I think I might recall…

The Puck Drop:

We’ve written before of the twitchy trigger-finger use of the “S” word; how it’s mostly a lazy trope of lazier journalists (ha, that you have to go looking for, Washington Post!) Technically, two games constitute a streak, even though anyone who claimed that in practice should, and we assume would, be mocked until they cried like wee wittl babies. Three is NOT a streak. Four opens the door. Five is when you come alive with something real, but not until.

This isn’t new territory. Ian, Peter, Chris, Ana and all the rest of our Soviet русская братство, I recall, have echoed this Caps upsy-downy nature of late; our history of clawing back in the waning days of Winter and the team’s general unreliability week-to-week over the last several years. Blurgh.

So. Here we go. Once more into that benumbed arena, my friends. And like every night, those any chosen size guys on the sheet will be joined, less temporally, by all of us, cheering them on, pushing them on, hoping for opening the door.

We few. We happy few.

Who’s Hot, And Who’s Not:

1: Headcase Hedbert. Oh, that Johan. As in Johan Hedbert (.908%.) Out for the last several Devils’ games, we expect Hedbert will be coming back Friday, for his first test in a while against the Caps.

We tend to think a net-minder back from a rest isn’t the best in the nest. No jest. Neuvy may prove that wrong, although frankly if you look at Vokoun and Neuvirth in larger context, you totally get who’s the better net-minder.

Our Opinion Only Warning: when Neuvy’s lost a bunch in rapid succession, it’s seemed more his issue; when it’s happened with Racoon, more a failure of our defense. I’m sure the number gnomes will step forward to prove me wrong, which I’ll happily accept. Because I don’t like feeling our best goalie is being sidelined because of irrational decisions.

Don’t know who’s getting the Caps start. We say: Vokoun can win; Neuvirth will perform. Diagnosis: Hedberg = Not; Neuvy Racoon = Hot.

2: Best. Sniper. Ever. Listen up anti-Seminites: you don’t have to be Mulder or Scully (“It’s me, where are you?“) to stumble on the hidden conspiracy that is Alexander Valerievich Semin. He is, officially, the Capitals non-secret, flare-shooting Tsar Bomba; the guy you don’t want anywhere near your net. Of late he’s the best player for the Caps…and by best we mean most adaptable.

His work on the dot, as forward and chief threat, and overall rally-rad guy make him invaluable to a bench hobbled without NB19. 1G/3A +3 in the last five don’t even begin to tell it. Sasha has stepped up from his previous role as artist/assassin to all-around auxiliary guy, creating spark where it’s needed and letting his team-mates grow the fire.

He is, in short, the Indispensable Capital. Sasha = Hot. Then again, it could all be a conspiracy.

3: You Can Go Home Again. And Again, And Again. What’s the Russian version of Whoo-hooo!? Probably something with a vodka bottle (like I’m one to talk.) Stereotyped larfs aside, the Capitals have just plowed through our most crap-tacular road trip of the year – that was even before we took it – and are now beginning a little home encampment-let of four games. To which we can only say: Whoo-hoo!   What are we, 21-doesn’t matter-who cares at Home? Go look up the actual numbers elsewhere, Poindexter; point is they really do rock Verizon.

Beyond that, we’re 94G/74GA, with 22 PPgoals and a relatively stingy 16 PPagainst at home. (Who’s the Poindexter now?) But, unlike last season, they do not like coming off the losing the 1st, at 5-20-2. Yuck.

4: Giants On The Ice. Mike Knuble has been benched the last too many games. Too many times in February he had almost points and take-back scores; too much he’s had his pockets picked and played Jingle Pipes and yet, nothing. Not for a lack of trying. Could we use him hovering over the Hedberg’s net tonight? A fraction less that I could use losing 40 pounds.

Our other giant, Jeff Schultz (1G/5A, +2) clocks in at 6’6″ and 230. Pounds, not stone. He’s been muzzled on the ice this season, earlier because of (honestly) under-performance, and later because of Coach Hunter’s new “U No Skor U Go” policy. Which we, and only we – the PuckBuddys – are here saying is shite. Caps Giant Schultz: go defeat enemies.

Schultz is back on skates, and we qualify this as a win. Hot = Schultz scoring.

Watch, Bet And Cheer:

7pm puck drop. If you can’t be at Verizon, watch Joe B and Locker, their awesome coverage, Alan May’s prescient tweets, and everyone’s preposterous suits. Caps 2, Devils 1. Call the Mirage book on that one.

Screengrab by: @recordsandradio

If I had told you in October that a late-February game against the Islanders would be one of the most important games of the season, you would have laughed yourself sick. This one was big, though. All of them will be from now on. The Caps hung in there, didn’t stop fighting, tied up the game in the most completely improbable fashion possible — and then they won. You might not have seen that one coming.

Josh Bailey glided right through a defensive breakdown and scored the first goal. Matt Moulson deflected a long shot in front of Neuvirth to make it 2-0. Brouwer scored one Knuble-style in front of the net with the clock winding down. Brouwer then officially became a certified hero by tipping in a second goal with seconds left to go and took us to overtime. Alex Ovechkin ended it with a five-hole beauty, and you know what? We might believe. Just a little bit. Caps win, 3-2.

• Let’s be honest. We would probably rather face absolutely any other Islanders goaltender, of the 567 possibilities they have available, because Evgeni Nabokov is the real deal. Tonight the Caps ended a 100-plus-minute streak in which Nabokov has shut them out in the Verizon Center, and hopefully no new streaks like that will be starting anytime soon.
• Dmitry Orlov uncaged! This was his first game free of the stylish college hockey look, ending a becage’d stretch in which he had a goal, 3 assists, and was +5 overall. For those of you who are superstitious, though, Orlov had a fantastic game, ending with +18 Corsi and a crushing hit on John Tavares in the middle of the third.
• The team had four “power plays” where they tried to “shoot” the puck at the net and score “power play goals”. This was executed with all the grace of water buffalos on ice. Caps have scored only once in their last 20 PP chances, and only twice in their last 32. We got trouble.
• As frustrating as it is to have a $3 million man on the fourth line, Ward-Halpern-Beagle have been gold for the Caps the last few games. They had a shift late in the first period where they were running over Islanders and destroying everything that sparked some of the Caps’ best offensive pressure of the night. They didn’t end up with anything to show for it, but man, they were trying. Perhaps we can borrow Nicklas Backstrom’s hands for one of them while he is on LTIR. Don’t worry, we’ll give them back.
• In fact, Jay Beagle was great all game, he had The Fire tonight. He ended with a team-high, career-high five shots on goal and was generally everywhere you looked at any given moment. There was also a season high number of dog-related twitter jokes. Aren’t we glad we didn’t trade him?
• Michal Neuvirth kept us in it, there were so many points at which the game could have become a February Leafs game and didn’t. He is always there for us, except for a few times earlier in the year which don’t count.
• Seriously, how do you stop this?
• Jeff Schultz, on the other hand, will be receiving no awards tonight, or at least not any flattering ones. His play has improved quite a bit since that extended scratch period, but tonight was just not Sarge’s night. The first goal can be directly pinned on him, and there were a few other instances of him giving away the puck away to Islanders or giving up ice. This should be considered treason and he should be court martialed.
• The Caps got a little loosey-goosey after the first, to paraphrase Joe B. The eyes were open, the feet were skating, but the brains had been left behind in the locker room. Someone get on convincing the league that the team with the most turnovers wins the Stanley Cup.
• Troy Brouwer is the man of the night, Beagle’s beagling regardless. He gave the team a sudden surge of life with a goal late in the third, and then knocked in the game-tying goal so late that the people who had already left to miss the traffic probably missed it. Just think: according to yesterday’s deadline market, Troy Brouwer = Paul Gaustad.
• Did you get a sense of deja vu on the Caps climbing back and Ovechkin’s OT winner? That’s because almost exactly one year ago, 3/1/2011, Ovechkin ended a game against the Islanders in overtime almost the exact same way. Re-watch that goal below and remember that this was when the hot run to the playoffs started. Credit: Fedor Fedin

Joe B suit of the night.

Trade deadline did not go the way that many of us expected it to. There was no overhaul. There’s been a sense over the past few months that the Caps would be changing drastically come February, there was a lot of armchair GMing to be done and a lot of clear and reasonable excuses for the Caps’ performance. That’s over now. The trade freeze is on, these are your Washington Capitals.

We’ll see whether that ultimately turns out to be a good thing or a bad thing. There are certainly flaws in this roster, but there are flaws in every team around us in the standings, and the Southeast Division is a joke. The team that can manage to be the least awful will be in. The team is perhaps not as good as it appeared to be coming into October, but then sometimes for moments or for whole games they are fantastic, and there are players that we are so, so glad that we didn’t have to give up. All up to them now. Deadline’s past, no point dwelling. Tonight, they showed us that they just might be worth GMGM’s trust.