Photo credit: Andre Ringuette

Earlier I wrote about how the Hart Trophy was a poorly defined award of limited value. Now I’ll share why I think Alex Ovechkin absolutely must have it. I’m going to share some stats and rebut some excuses, but the whole thing boils down to this: the Capitals needed the best from Ovechkin, and he delivered it.

But first, I’m going to repeat what we talked about before. This is the most valuable player to his team, not just the best all-around player. If we’re talking best player? I’d say it’s Sidney Crosby. Hands down. But most valuable? And to his team? That’s a more interesting conversation. And now, baby, you’ve got a stew going.

I suppose there are a bunch of ways to measure how valuable a player is to his team, but the most obvious is how much of his team’s offense (sorry, goalies) comes from him. The chart below shows the percentage of total team goals each of our four big names has personally offered.

Despite missing a quarter of the season, Crosby still has had his greasy Canadian fingers in nearly 40% of the Penguins’ league-leading goal tally. Alex Ovechkin isn’t far behind (37.2%), but he also scored more than one-fifth of Washington’s goals, slightly above where Long Island’s John Tavares placed. Jonathan Toews isn’t all that exceptional when it comes to carrying production water for Chicago.

(By the way, Steven Stamkos’s numbers last years were better than all these guys: He had points on 40% of Tampa’s goals and scored 25% of them personally, but no playoffs, no trophy.)

The point here is that a player’s raw numbers– goals and assists– should be considered in context of his team. Washington depends on Alex Ovechkin to produce, and he this year has done exactly that.

The most compelling argument against Ovechkin as “outstanding player” is all about how his slow start to the season doomed him. Those people are right. Alex Ovechkin had just 2 goals through the season’s first 10 games, and his team had just two wins in that same span. I think that’s enough to cost him any chance at league MVP, i.e. the Ted Lindsay– but it just underscores his case as the player most valuable to his team, i.e. the Hart.

This next graph shows how the Caps’ fate has been tied to Alex Ovechkin’s goal production… and how fantastically that has turned out for them.

The Capitals didn’t win until Alex Ovechkin started scoring. The Capitals couldn’t hit .500 until Ovi cracked .6 goals per game. They’re on the same trajectory here– away from a lottery draft pick and headed towards the postseason. It should be noted that within 10 days after Adam Oates switched him to the right wing and reunited him with the uber-Swede, Nick Backstrom, Ovechkin jumped from 0.36 goals per game to 0.50 goals per game and climbing.

Consistency is a virtue– one that Ovechkin does not possess– but I don’t think it’s critical to the proposition of the Hart. The more important matter is how Alex Ovechkin’s goal scoring (and assisting!) has been critical to the Capitals’ success. The Capitals without a great Ovechkin are not a good hockey team. The Penguins without Sidney Crosby, meanwhile, are still terrifyingly good; they just move less merchandise. It’s your basic Michael Jordan on the Bulls versus Michael Jordan on the Space Jam team scenario– although in my metaphor the Swedish Bugs Bunny is really driving puck possession for MJ.

Another dig on Ovechkin is that his playing in the Southeast Division puts him on the NHL version of the bunny slope. The other four teams in his division rank mostly in the bottom third of teams in shots and goals against. None of them has a save percentage above 90.1%. The Southeast really does stink, and Alex Ovechkin is wafting the fumes. His point production against the SE more than doubles how he does against the Atlantic and Northeast divisions.

Still, I really doubt people are filing the same objections about the Northwest.

Finally, there’s the fancystat argument. Alex Ovechkin’s underlying numbers– particularly in puck possession– just aren’t as strong as his peers.

Alex Ovechkin is the only player in the group who sees more shot attempts go towards his team’s net than the other guy’s net when playing 5-on-5. We could try to explain that away, but it’s true. I just don’t think it matters. These advanced stats are helpful in estimating how a player may perform in the future independent of variance, but we have actual performance metrics for this season we could use instead. The fact that John Tavares likely won’t shoot 17% next year is immaterial to adjudicating how well he did this year.

Again, I don’t know who will win the Hart, and I think it’s foolish to try to guess how hundreds of pro hockey writers will vote, particularly given the criteria for Hart we’ve heard before. I do know that Alex Ovechkin has a damn good case to win. But so does Sergei Bobrovksy.

In the end, it doesn’t matter all that much. We’ve got the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard, and those guys don’t care about Southeast bias or ZoneStart-adjusted Fenwick Close on turf against left-handed pitchers. And the totality of NHL Awards adds up to exactly shrapnel compared to the real goal of a hockey season: the Stanley Cup.

p.s.

Photo credit: Alex Brandon

Mike Green is a lot of things: a two-time Norris nominee, a generous human, and the beefy crush-object of thousands of women in the tri-state area. On Tuesday, however, he was a goat (and I don’t mean the Greatest of All-Time).

With five minutes to go in regulation and the game tied 2-2, Brooks Laich‘s cross-ice dump-in was swatted down by John Tavares. Tavares sent the puck into the Caps’ zone, which is where all the crazy happened. Laich sent a weak pass behind the net to Mike Green. The puck bounced off both boards and the back of the net, finally coming to rest dangerously near the crease. With Matt Moulson pressuring, Green tried to put the puck through his legs. Instead, the puck hit his skates and stopped. Moulson picked it up and fed Tavares for an easy game-winner.

Best viewed while “Yakety Sax” is playing  (GIF by welshhockeyfan)

After the game, Laich, according to RMNB’s Chris Gordon, said that it was his bad.

“I got caught out a little fatigued,” Brooks explained. “I wanted to send it back behind the net. I didn’t think I could get Mike direct. I didn’t want to turn one over in the middle in front of our net so I sent it behind the net. Bad angle, bad decision by myself. I put Mike in trouble.”

Laich continued. “I apologized to him after. I put [him] in a tough spot. He tries to make a play and beat the first guy and then the second guy got him. You win as a team, you lose as a team, but I can certainly make a better play to help Mike out there.”

Head Coach Adam Oates blamed both players on the turnover. “It was a tired play,” he said. “We gave them a freebie.”

Braden Holtby said of the same encounter, “It was one of those plays that hand-cuffed Greener. I was too busy looking at the play develop behind the net to see where Tavares was.”

Green did not speak to reporters after the game.

With the victory, the Islanders leapfrog the Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes to claim ninth place in the East (though Carolina has played 2 fewer games).

Video of Tavares’ Game-Winning Goal

Sigh.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.

Photo credit: Bruce Bennett

The Washington Capitals began their epic road trip with a stop on the Long Island and its New York Islanders. The game saw the worst and best of the Caps, but it ended the right way.

Matt Moulson scored the game’s first goal, a fluke so dumbfounding I feel drunk trying to explain it. Matt Moulson scored a power play goal off of John Carlson. John Tavares notched another power play goal at the halfway point, but Dennis Wideman returned fire a few seconds later. Before a comeback could gain momentum, Tavares found the back of the net again.  Before the end of the second, Alex Ovechkin caught a rebound and turned it into goal.

Scoarlov.

Alex Ovechkin took three stabs at a puck from descending distances before beating Nabokov and tying the game. Overtime was not OV time, so we needed a shootout to make a decision. Matt Hendricks is your shootout hero! Caps beat Isles 5-4 (SO).

• FINALLY. After an eon of ringing post and side-eyeing goats, Mike Knuble finally met twine. And it was an important one, breaking Nabokov’s shutout. And it was a typical one– up front, taking hits, working hard for the point, which he stole off Dennis Wideman one might say. We love you, Kanoobs. Welcome back.
• After a week of folks talking up Jay Beagle, the kid fell back to earth. Jay absorbed an early shot off Milan Jurcina and committed three penalties. Yuck.
• The power play was a huge problem. The Isles spent 1/6th of this game with an extra dude on the ice and scored twice. The Caps had not a single opportunity. If you put those two flukey goals together and add the third one of the PP, the Islanders had all the breaks. It was like loaded dice out there.
• Just like we have never said, John Tavares is one of the best players in the NHL. His two goals surprise us not at all. We’re just grateful his first goal was later credited to someone else. DC Hat Trick.
• Dmitry Orlov wants to score, Dmitry Orlov scores. A very pretty net-crashy score at that. The kid’s got a bright future, so we won’t even mention the bit of weak sauce he was serving up in the first 40 or that choke during the shootout.
• Alex Ovechkin had 0 shots in the first period, but scored in the second and third periods. Captaincy. Capitanosity. Captaintainment. This was Alex’s 68 multi-goal game. And he got the DC Hat Trick. Respect.
• Three assists for Keith Aucoin. No jokes, just respect.
• Nassau Colosseum has the same acoustics and sound levels as my high school gymnasium. [joke redacted, but man you would have laaaaaaaughed.]
• Michal Neuvirth is a barbarian. No analysis. Just wanted to throw that out there.

Joe B suit of the night

Whoa. What a rollercoaster, right? Were you despairing after 20? After 30? After 40? It’s okay. We were right there with you.

But when Ovi got that goal late  in the second period, everything changed. The third-period Caps were terrific. They didn’t even need a power play to climb out of a deep hole. And that hole, we should add, was dug by flukey goals and lopsided reffing. Not that we’re complaining.

But we are.

This game was manic. It started like a nightmare flashback from January and ended like something… well… something we haven’t seen before.

That’s one game down on this odyssey. Think of the Isles like a mini boss, cause it’s only gonna get tougher from here.

In parting, what is cooler than being cool?

“What is this doing here?”

Halfway through the first period of Tuesday’s Capitals-Islanders game, Matt Moulson sent a shot towards Michal Neuvirth‘s net. Neuvy got his blocker on it — sending the puck flying into the glass.

That should’ve been the end of that, but the puck bounced back over the net, as if being guided by Satan himself, and deflected off Neuvirth’s erogenous zone before going in the net.

Mobile-friendly version.

Not sure what exactly we did to spurn the hockey gods, but we apologize for it. Please accept this picture of Tom Hanks on a swing as penance.

Editor’s note: Neil Greenberg is not currently affiliated with RMNB and was not consulted for this article.

During Saturday’s game between the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes, play-by-play announcer Howie Rose criticized Neil Greenberg’s list of the top 25 players under 25 for ESPN.com (paywall, but it’s worth it). That list does not include NYI’s John Tavares, who has a team-best 46 points in his third year in the NHL.

During the discussion, Rose calls Neil a “housebound agraphobe.” We can assume he means agoraphobe, since agraphobe is a made-up word that would mean “fear of farmland” or something. Rose runs standard operating procedure for character assassination of a blogger. Four-time Stanley Cup winner Butch Goring joins the routine and accuses Neil of being a provocateur. It’s a comprehensive ad hominem screed, except that they do not mention Neil by name at any point during the two-minute, telecast-padding exercise:

Howie Rose: I don’t know if you happened to see an article that was in a national online publication recently, but someone actually wrote that — there’s a list of 25 players among those under 25 in the National Hockey League. . . Can you believe that John Tavares was not on that list? Are you kidding me?

Now, think about that. We’re just talking about players under 25 and when [Neil Greenberg] was criticized for that he then came up with some kind of goofball numerical response. I don’t know who this housebound agraphobe [sic] is. I suggest he opens his shades — get a little light in there — and then watch the game and stop playing around with computers.

Open your eyes! You could make the case that John Tavares is among the best 25 players in the league. Period. Nevermind under 25 years of age. That’s just dumb.

Butch Goring: Well, I suggest the guy cover another sport because clearly he has no idea what this sport’s all about.

Howie Rose: I mean, that’s just stupid. There’s no other way to put it unless there’s some kind of personal agenda.

Butch Goring: Unless he just wants to be controversial.

Howie Rose: That’s why I’m not mentioning his name because I’m not going to give him that benefit. [awkward cross-talk]. . . As I said, open the window, get a little air, open the shades, get a little light.

Butch Goring: John Tavares is only very, very close to being in the top 10 in the scoring race, so top 25 doesn’t make any sense to me.

One other thing Rose doesn’t mention is Neil’s actual, stated reasons for leaving Tavares off the list, which basically comes down to crummy possession statistics and good teammates.

Obviously, Neil Greenberg was a RMNB team member for a few years before graduating to The Washington Post and ESPN Insider. His tweets and columns for WaPo’s Capitals Insider often stir up controversy because they tell us things we don’t want to hear about our team. But Neil’s projections are accurate, his analysis is sharp, and his intentions are honest. Like everyone else, he’s a fan– but that doesn’t preclude him from providing objective assessment. And not everyone likes objective assessment.

Personally, I don’t know if John Tavares should’ve been on the list or not, but I trust Neil and his work. And I’d urge the NYI broadcast team not to get into a battle of words with our friends, ’cause we run a blog that is basically the Dol Goldur of irrational and misplaced rage.

And it’s not too late to bury the hatchet anyway; Rose and Greenberg are both Mets fans. I’m picturing a reconciliation intermission segment during the next Isles game.

By the way, the New York Islanders won the game 2-1 in overtime. Both NYI goals came from Tavares. Heh.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland. H/T Islanders Point Blank.

Stop showing off, Nabokov. (Photo credit: Nick Wass)

Ed. Note: In our continuing quest to bring you the least crappy product possible, we’d like to welcome Ana Hansen of the blog Hockey Yelling to the RMNB team. Ana, a 22-year-old English major at William & Mary, is witty, creative, and mentally unstable. So uhh you better give her a warm welcome in the comments below or else. You can follow her on Twitter here.

Hello Caps world! In the place of your regularly scheduled coverage you’ve got me tonight. My condolences, but not too many of them, because a hockey game happened, and that’s more important than anything else.

We lost this game, which I hope does not mean that I’m bad luck. I will be carefully monitoring this issue from here on out.

To the game, somewhat reluctantly I guess. We were supposed to win this one. The Islanders are not a particularly lethal team, but when they’re given this much space, even they can stumble into a few goals.

Tavares opened the scoring with a redirection on the PP, and the first person to mention his scoring streak gets a punch in the kisser. Parenteau made it 2-0 on a joint effort from Carlzner, Alzner with the giveaway and Carlson screening his own goalie. You’re welcome, Pareteau. Parenteau converted on the PP for his second of the night but luckily by that point, you were probably too numb to feel it. Caps lose, 3-0. Gross.

Dmitry Orlov in 'The Predator Returns.' (Via carrotbazooka.tumblr.com)

• There was no offense to be found in all of the land. Caps somehow managed to make it to the middle of the game with only 7 SOG. The team went for Starbucks and left the Islanders to do basically whatever they wanted for most of the game. Vokoun wishes he could say he wasn’t used to this.
• Speaking of Tomas Vokoun, he was still pretty sharp in his tenth straight start, goals against regardless. The only problem  for the Vokeswagon anymore, in fact, is the nickname “The Vokeswagon.” This is not intimidating at all. Suggestions are welcome.
• John Carlson and Karl Alzner have been replaced by evil body doubles. I am thinking conspiracy. People in high places are involved.
• Former Cap Milan Jurcina misses his old team terribly and wanted to pitch in somehow. Thanks for the two penalties, Juice! Not like we did anything with them but we appreciate the thought nonetheless.
• The all-net-crash Knuble-Laich-Brouwer line should not be good. This defies every law of reason. Somehow, though, they managed to have some of the only dangerous shifts of the night.
• Evgeni Nabokov was good or whatever, I don’t want to talk about it, it’s not like he had a lot to do. I hope he gets traded to Tampa Bay forever.
• Even during an abysmal first period, Brooks Laich was still man enough to go down and block two shots on the PK. He deserves some loving for that. Ladies, get in line.

This game was such bad news. It was such terrible bad news. Trade Ovechkin. Send Vokoun to the AHL. Burn the Verizon Center.

Joe B suit of the night.

Nope.

You don’t have to be happy about what’s going on right now, I don’t blame you if you’re not. You have to put some kind of emotional investment into being a fan, which means you get a little crushed when your team puts up total nonsense like this. It’s okay to still love them, though. They lost this game, bad–this is a bad place, but they’re not going to be here forever. You’ll be here to see it when it turns around.

Have faith. Montreal tomorrow. Let’s go Caps.

Editor’s note:  Puck Buddys. @PuckBuddys. Read.

The Pre Game: So my doctor says I need to relax more. He suggests writing: it’s solitary, quiet, and engages the “more refined aspects” of our minds, he says. Which is funny, considering that the more I think about Long Island, the harder I find it is to type with clenched fists.

The Puck Drop: It’s difficult to know what to say about the 516 that is refined. Or funny. A better word is sad. It’s a place where ‘ugg’ boots aren’t a brand so much as a reaction to the Designer Shoe Outlet knock-off sleds that women strap on to their feet. A place where professional people dress like it’s Halloween every day. Like I said, sad, really. That such an idyllic spot could be inhabited by so many groaners perhaps argues that God indeed really did die, or at least go on extended vacation, thus leaving Creation in the hands of people who consider Billy Joel relevant. But enough theology.

As far as the Islanders, they haven’t been a role model for decades. Save, maybe, for people who suffer from Imposter Syndrome for good reason. Heck, just insert any “X” into the X > Tebow meme, and replace Tebow with the Islanders, and you get the idea. “Godfathers Pizza > Islanders.” Gold.

However, as we have learned from honey badger, it’s hard to kill a desperate, angry animal.  And so – ewww! – we give you -

What Makes Them Hot

John Tavares

1: Really? Barf. OK.  John Tavares. Hey, I’ve gotta grab somebody, right? And he’s about as good a body on the Isles you could find. He’s young, but not crazy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins young, and he’s thick for a guy who’s only 6’ (and that ain’t Ovi thick we’re talkin’), and he’s actually good. Well, the best they’ve got: 8 goals this season – even if they weren’t always artful – makes him a player to beware.

…

3: Fishsticks. We don’t have three good things to say – and we tried! – about this crew as it stands, so we’re skipping #2. And how is it even a crew? Serious: look back at the game replays; they’re not so much a team as they are a bunch of well-compensated dopes circling around the rink like they’ve never met. And this is the proud heritage of New Yorker salts who gave us salted cod and the Gorton’s Fisherman? Yeah, OK: they, like just about every other team we’re better than now. Banners recalling Cup victories? Lovely. Hope they keep you warm at night.

What Makes Them Not

1: The Past. Apart from three wins earlier this season (two from the Wild and the Rangers, say no more), it’s been losses or OT for the Islanders, now 3-5-2. Unlike a team trying to pull itself together, the record – and the stats, winless in the last six – suggest a team that’s coming apart at the laces. Which is precisely what the Islanders have been doing for more than a decade. Broken record much? Somebody pull the needle.

Kyle Okposo (Photo credit: Bruce Bennett)

2: The Present. Anyone see that game against the Winnipeg Jets? Puke-tacular. Players who should be performing just aren’t. Kyle Okposo? Mark Streit? Even nubes (to the Islanders at least) like Nino Niederreiter  just aren’t making anything happen. That sort of endemic crap performance suggests bigger problems, and not ones that are just going to go away by themselves, if you know what we mean (*coughCapuanocough*) And their netminders? All of them, Rick DiPietro, Evgeni Nabokov (love your books!) and some joker named Al Montoya all rate SKNX-X-X on the Dagwood Bumstead snoreometer.

3: The Future. Eagle-eye PuckBuddy buddy Jim Barnes sends us this nugget from Coach Capuano quoted in the New York Pest: “I don’t know if it’s a breaking point but come [Saturday] night if we have to play three lines, we’ll play three lines…If we have to play five defensemen, we’ll play five defensemen. We have to win a game.” So there we go! Winner-talk!

The OT Shoot Out: So we hear that some of you think we’re awful. First, it’s a hack journalism trick to say “Some people think…” and then just plop in anything you want without reference. So by some of you we mean anonymous commenters like Cale:  “You must be the one that smells!” Or Bob: “You guys are infantile.”

Curiously, “Bob” seems to keep coming back just to leave comments about how horrible we are and how much he can’t stand reading us. Just so everyone knows, Craig and I read these comments nightly, and we laugh and laugh, as only bitter homosexuals can. So please keep them coming. And “Bob” – I think the word you want is adolescent.

Anze Kopitar celebrates a goal last year against the Blackhawks. (Photo credit: Harry How)

Editor’s note: You can win a 1-year subscription to ESPN Insider and a $25 gift certificate to Front Page VA by guessing Neil’s first two draft picks tonight. Check out the details on our Facebook page.

As part of ESPN.com’s NHL family, I was invited to participate in their fantasy hockey draft this past Tuesday. Just me and guys like Craig Custance, John Buccigross, and Scott Cullen.

No pressure.

Victoria Matiash has already given a bird’s eye view of the draft, but I thought I would run through my thought process on various picks and give you some ideas for your fantasy draft. Plus, you can see how I do for the season because we are making the results public.

Here were the ground rules for the draft:

Participants included, in original order, Craig Custance, Tristan Cockcroft, Tim Kavanagh, John Buccigross, Pierre Becquey, Michael Hume, Victoria Matiash, Neil Greenberg, Sean Allen and Scott Cullen. Categories include goals, assists, power-play points, plus/minus, penalty minutes, shots on goal and average time on ice for skaters and wins, save percentage and goals-against average for goaltenders. Slots to fill include nine forwards, five defensemen, one “utility” skater, two goaltenders and a five-man bench.

My philosophy was simple: grab young, healthy, talented players with upside. Let others worry if Patrick Kane would be healthy or if Sergei Kostitsyn can once again score 20 goals on less than 100 shots.

I had the eight pick. With my editor Mike Hume drafting before me (he knows which players I fancy) and Cullen having back-to-back picks behind me I knew I had to make strategic decisions.

Not surprisingly, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, and Daniel Sedin went in the first three picks. Hume knows I think Corey Perry was no fluke, so the chances of him dropping to me were nil. That left me with Anze Kopitar (who I think will contend for the Art Ross) or Henrik Lundqvist as my first pick. Luckily for me, I got both of them.

My third choice was also an easy one: Duncan Keith. His boxcar stats may have fallen, but he is as fundamentally sound as he has ever been, and he remains my preseason favorite for another Norris-caliber performance.

My next pick caused some raised eyebrows:

Also noteworthy was Greenberg’s choice of Jeff Skinner ahead of Eric Staal. Ranked higher in ESPN.com’s projections, the captain of the Carolina Hurricanes is expected to put up superior numbers across the board. But obviously, Greenberg preferred to put his fantasy faith in the reigning Calder Trophy winner.

Fantasy hockey is about looking forward. While there is no doubt Eric Staal is a 70-point player, Jeff Skinner is (conservatively) a 60-point player who could put up over 70 points next year. So I got a player who may put up five points less or 10-15 points more than Eric Staal. In a rotisserie league with hockey geniuses it was worth the gamble, in my opinion.

I struggled with my fifth pick a little. I had Phil Kessel, John Tavares, and Loui Eriksson queued up but pulled the trigger on Kessel, thinking that one or both of the others would be there for me on my next picks.

I was right about Loui Eriksson, who I took with my sixth pick, but not Tavares, who went three picks before me in round seven.

With Tavares and Matt Duchene off the board, both of whom I think can post 30 goals in 2011-12, I decided to shore up my goaltending and took Jimmy Howard.

A quick note on goaltenders: I only considered drafting Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Cam Ward, Jimmy Howard, or Corey Crawford. Why? Too long to explain here, but I did some analysis on when goaltenders have their breakout season based on age and experience and these five fit the bill. I did the same thing last year and had only two goaltenders on my list: Pekka Rinne and Cam Ward.

In round eight I took Joe Pavelski, which was a solid pick there and then my first miscalculation of the draft came at the hands of Scott Cullen.

I feel Jamie Benn is this year’s sleeper. I think he has 30-goal potential and could end up surprising many people. With my ninth pick I took Evander Kane, thinking Benn would slip past another four picks. Nope.

Cullen: “I’ve been touting Jamie Benn going back to the second half of last year, when his ice time went up dramatically; he’s been my preferred pick as a breakthrough/sleeper forward since. So, by the ninth round, when I had already addressed all my positions to some degree, it felt right to take a young player that has a chance at 70 points. “

If you have a chance to pick up Benn in your league, do it.

Right now. I’ll wait.

It will be him and Eriksson that pick up the slack left by Brad Richard’s departure, not Michael Ryder. In the draft room Hume asked how many of Benn’s goals the last two years came via a Brad Richards primary assist. One. And Richards had only one secondary assist the year before that. Benn is the real deal.

I took Alex Pietrangelo after I misjudged the “sleepiness” of Benn. The D corps looked to be thinning after Dion Phaneuf and James Wisniewski were taken off the board, so I grabbed Pietrangelo. “Good for 45 points, I think he’s a solid fantasy pick.”

Next picks were unremarkable, but ones I believe have some big upside: Erik Karlsson, Tyler Ennis, Patric Hornqvist, Tyler Kennedy, Mikael Backlund, Patrik Berglund, Jakub Voracek and Nathan Gerbe.

I did have two moments of weakness where I got homesick and drafted Dennis Wideman (15th round) and Brooks Laich (20th round).

So there you have it. Be sure to check out how I am doing from time to time. Also, if you would have drafted differently or just want to comment on the draft in general, let us know in the comments.

Semyon Varlamov is going to have to stop being injured, to actually contend for the Calder Trophy.

The Capitals’ Semyon Varlamov has been one of the better rookies in the NHL this season, and he’s certainly in the running to maybe take home the Calder Trophy. Several of the more highly touted rookies haven’t quite lived up to expectations, which leaves the field still wide open. By the nature of these kinds of awards, the winner tends to be the guy who played over his head the most and the longest. That means that the player who is on top now can easily regress and possibly even finish out of the top 10 at the en. Also, since it’s hard to compare players at different positions, the Goals Versus Threshold numbers that Behind The Net recently added are useful to put everyone on the same playing field. A little more than half-way through the season, here are some of the top contenders.

Jimmy Howard (G, Detroit Red Wings)

15-9 with a .927 save percentage and 1 shutout

Howard’s kind of come out of nowhere to take the starting job in Detroit. His GGVT has been +13.7, with another +0.7 on the shootout, for a total of 14.5 Goals Versus Threshold (rounding). The guy has a pretty good pedigree – he holds the NCAA records for GAA (1.19) and save percentage (.954) and he was named to the 2005–06 AHL All-Rookie team – but as a second-round pick from back in 2003, Howard certainly wasn’t someone people expected to be amongst the best rookies in the league this season. While it might be a little unlikely that Howard will be able to keep up this level of performance, if he is able to he might be rewarded with some hardware at the end of the year.

Tyler Myers (D, Buffalo Sabres)

6 goals, 20 assists, +8 plus/minus

The 2008 first-round pick and 2009 World Junior Gold Medal winner with team Canada has been equally good in both aspects of his game with a +3.4 Offensive GVT and a +3.4 Defensive GVT. With an additional +0.3 on the shootout, Myers’ +7.1 Goals Versus Threshold is top amongst all rookie skaters. If the goalies are dinged due to their position, then Myers is in excellent position to capitalize.

Semyon Varlamov (G, Washington Capitals)

12-1 with a .924 save percentage and 2 shutouts

Varly has missed some time, which has cut into his value. His Goalie Goals Versus Threshold is about +7.3 currently, and he’s been very good on the shootout at +2.7. His total GVT of 10 is a little lower than his ability might imply, but if he is able to stay on the ice for the majority of the second half he might be able to push that towards 25 for the season.

Niclas Bergfors (RW, New Jersey Devils)

13 goals, 14 assists, -3 plus/minus

Bergfors was drafted all the way back in 2005, but is getting his first real time in the NHL this year. He’s been good on offense with a +4.7 OGVT, but with a -4.8 relative plus/minus and a +0.8 DGVT his defense leaves a little to be desired. A +5.5 GVT is nothing to sneeze at though.

James van Riemsdyk (LW, Philadelphia Flyers)

10 goals, 16 assists, +5 plus/minus

Drafted second overall in 2007, JVR has done a good job scoring (+4.1 Offensive GVT) and defensively (+5.4 relative plus/minus, +1.3 DGVT), with a total Goals Versus Threshold of +5.4.

John Tavares (C, New York Islanders)

16 goals, 12 assists, -8 plus/minus

The first-overall pick from last year’s draft hasn’t been a dominant player yet. Despite the 28 points and the bad plus/minus, his Offensive GVT is just +2.8. His relative plus/minus is a much more mild -1.8, and his defensive GVT is in the positive territory at +1.0. Add in the -0.5 on shootouts, and Tavares’ 3.3 Goals Versus Threshold is only just OK – and probably a disappointment given the high expectations.

Also in play:

Michael Del Zotto (D, New York Rangers)
5 goals, 16 assists, -16 plus/minus, +2.1 OGVT, -9.7 relative plus/minus, +0.2 DGVT, +2.1 GVT

Evander Kane (LW, Atlanta Thrashers)
10 goals, 6 assists, +3 plus/minus, +1.4 OGVT, +4.6 relative plus/minus, +0.9 DGVT, +2.3 GVT

Jamie Benn (LW, Dallas Stars)
8 goals, 13 assists, -4 plus/minus, +2.3 OGVT, -1.7 relative plus/minus, +0.7 DGVT, +2.5 GVT

Matt Duchene (C, Colorado Avalanche)
11 goals, 16 assists, -12 plus/minus, +2.6 OGVT, -10.1 relative plus/minus, -0.2 DGVT, +1.5 GVT