Evgeny Kuznetsov poses with George McPhee and Ross Mahoney (Photo: Bruce Bennett)

Each off-season I catch up on my reading. I alternate between a Bill James’ Abstract (I have 1984-1989 to get through); something music related (currently Straight Edge: Clean-Living Youth, Hardcore Punk, And Social Change and Precious Metal: Decibel Presents the Stories Behind 25 Extreme Metal Masterpieces); and one or two hockey books– including the new one called The Art of Scouting, which “delves into the secretive world of hockey prospecting.”

After only eleven pages, I got struck by what the authors claim is the consensus of a successful draft, summarized by Mike Futa, co-director of amateur scouting for the Los Angeles Kings:

“It’s the only job where you can be right 15 percent of the time and be ruled a Hall of Famer for success, You are going to be wrong 85 or 80 percent of the time, and if you hit on 2.5 home runs every Draft, you are par with some of the best scouts ever.”

Two NHLers out of seven players drafted, assuming no trades are made, seems like a low bar, so I decided to see how the George McPhee era has done in regards to scouting.

McPhee joined the Capitals in 1997, so the first draft we can attribute to him is in 1998. Since it takes about five years for a prospect to develop, we will look at his draft record from 1998-2006. Let’s consider a prospect a success if he has played in at least 200 games at the NHL level. That gives him five years of 40 games played to qualify.

Spoiler: The results are not great.

By the parameters we set above, only three of the nine drafts could be considered success:

2000: Brian Sutherby and Matt Pettinger

2002: Alexander Semin, Boyd Gordon and Steve Eminger.

2004: Alexander Ovechkin, Jeff Schultz and Mike Green

If we lower our standards to only 100 NHL games played, we could add in the draft class from 2001, which saw the Capitals select Nathan Paetsch (2nd round) and Johnny Oduya (7th round).

What makes the results even more concerning is that if we use our original parameter of 200 NHL games, most of the successes come in the first round:

They also rank close to the bottom third (Washington in red) for total “successes” drafted between 1998-2006.

I am sure Caps fans will not be happy seeing Pittsburgh at the top of that list, but it’s probably not surprising.

Looking ahead, there are sure to be some other bright spots for the Capitals’ scouts, like Carlzner, Neuvirth, Kuznetsov and perhaps Holtby, Eakin and Orlov. But if Washington wants to keep their “Cup window” open, they are going to have to do a much better job drafting after the first round.

Just one of those nights. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Important stuff first: Atlanta goalie Ondrej Pavelec collapsed during a stoppage of play early in the first period. Medical staff rushed to the ice, as Pavelec remained motionless for ten minutes.  He was then taken to the hospital where he later regained consciousness. Panic, dread, and confusion filled Phillips Arena during the extended delay, but the stalwart audio crew in Atlanta made sure to drown it out with crass jock rock in the interim. We wish all the best to Pavelec.

The Caps opened this season much like they closed the last one: messily.  Through sixty minutes of scrambling, bad turnovers, and awkward attacks, the Capitals stumbled through tonight’s game with the Thrashers like a baby elephant learning to walk.  The Caps put 31 shots against Chris Mason and another 28 into various Thrasher players willing to block them.  While only Brooks Laich and Mike Knuble were each able to defeat the Atlanta defense once, the opponents found ways to score at every turn. Thanks to a penalty-shot goal from Johnny Oduya, a laser from Andrew Ladd, and a twofer from Evander Kane, the Atlanta Thrashers felled the Caps in the opening bout. Thrashers beat Caps 4-2.

The first bullets of ’10-’11 comin’ at ya.

• It’s been months since our last recap, and much has changed. But our anticipation has been mounting for weeks. Ondrej Pavelec‘s accident on the ice really swept the rug out from under us all. If anyone looked distracted tonight, it’s certainly understandable.
• Even though four tallies were marked against him, Michal Neuvirth looked pretty solid tonight. As is Caps tradition, the goalie was fed to the wolves tonight and suffered some unlucky breaks that he did not deserve. No blame.
• The Thrashers blocked 23 shots. The Thrashers blocked 23 shots. The Thrashers blocked 23 shots. Five of them were Ovi’s. I don’t even want to type the word, but I have to: Habs.
• Johnny Oduya’s penalty shot came from a dubious call. Mike Green allegedly covered the puck with in the paint before scooting it out. We couldn’t see the play with our own eyes, but if Craig Laughlin says it’s bullpuckey– darnit– it is.
• Marcus Johansson went 1 for 8 on the faceoff. I know he’s unfamiliar with NHL faceoffs, but this is just unacceptable. He does look nice skating around though…
• The power play seemed to give up shorthanded opportunities more often than it produced shots on goal. Something is profoundly wrong.
• Hey, at least Mike Knuble got a goal. He’s now on track to score 82 this season. Career-best year coming up- mark my words.

So that was an utter disappointment. The Caps lacked any semblance of composure on defense. They showed precious little deliberation on offense. No set plays, no explosive attacks on the net, no lightning-fast passes. Who were these guys?

The most infectious and exhilarating thing about the Capitals is supposed to be their unquenchable desire to win. Every single  game.  That team didn’t show up tonight. Maybe it was the scare in the opening minutes, maybe it was the same malaise that haunted the team during the pre-season loss to Predators.

The boys will fly home tonight, get a good night’s sleep, and put on their red uni’s tomorrow. They’ll wake up.

Readers, I wish we could have opened this up for you with fireworks and pomp, but that wasn’t what the night brought us. As a consolation, we offer you these two voicemails delivered by the voice of the Capitals himself, Wes Johnson:

• Brooks Laich scores!
• Mike Knuble scores!