One look at the dismantling of the Chicago Blackhawks and it becomes apparent that the life blood of any hockey organization is its youth. If you can bring in young players that provide value at reasonable prices you have the ability to succeed in the long term. In the case of the Hershey Bears, it allows the Caps to fill their team with players who know how to win and execute Bruce Boudreau’s system.

The challenge then becomes not only which players to promote, but which players should be dangled in a trade and which you can simply cut bait with. The underlying question in all of this is simply: Does the front office feel a certain prospect can make it in the NHL?

The Copper & Blue has been doing some excellent analysis evaluating all of the forwards drafted in 2009 and in 2010 using NHL equivalencies, a tool developed by Gabriel Desjardins.

NHL equivalencies try to figure out: How will a player’s performance translate to the NHL? It won’t tell you what a player’s stats will be once they make the jump but instead tries to give you a feel for, all things being equal (games played, PP time, etc.), what could you expect that player’s NHL offensive performance to be given his AHL boxcar stats.

We thought we would do the same focusing on the Hershey Bears and also bringing another element into the mix, one introduced in baseball by Tony Blengino: Relative Production Potential:

The method adjusts for league context, measuring all players’ performance relative to their league. Therefore, a massive offensive season as measured in traditional numbers in the pitcher-dominated High-A Carolina League carries more weight than a similar campaign in the hitting-crazy Triple-A Pacific Coast League. The RPP method also adjusts for a prospect’s age in relation to his level, weeding out all of the Phil Hiatts and Dale Sveums who create the illusion that they are long-term major league prospects with their pounding of minor league hurlers.

For example, there is no denying that Keith Aucoin had a dominating season for the Calder Cup winning Bears. Heck, he was even named the MVP of the League. But what else should we expect from a 32 year old career AHLer going up against 22 year olds?

On the flip side, Mathieu Perreault at age 22 had a much stronger campaign when you factor in age. While it may not translate to a better NHL equivalency, the upside of Perreault is probably greater than Aucoin since he has only been eligible to play in the AHL for two years versus Aucoin’s twelve.

So here’s the method:

1. Tabulate each forwards NHLE using Desjardins’ article for the translation from AHL to NHL.
2. Look at the Points per game and Shooting % for the entire AHL.
3. Calculate the amount of standard deviations each player is from the mean.
4. Make an adjustment based on the player’s age, subtracting one for each year they are over 25, adding one for each year under.

The NHLEs (based on an 82 game season) of last year’s Calder Cup winners (forwards only) listed in descending order of RPP:

As we would expect, the younger players gravitate towards the top if they had a “better than average” campaign compared to other forwards who played more than 20 games at the AHL level.

Mathieu Perreault leads the list explaining why he could be Marcuss Johansson’s main competition for 3rd line center at the NHL level this upcoming season. As to whether he can sustain the production over an NHL season while still improving remains to be seen.

Another interesting name on the list is Francois Bouchard, an adept playmaker, with a quick release and great vision in the offensive zone currently looked upon as a Top 10 prospect in the Caps system. With six forwards becoming UFAs in 2010-11 it may make sense to give Bouchrad a shot at the 3rd line if he comes in with another stellar AHL season.

RMNB blogger Andrew Gordon also showed he deserves a shot at the NHL level. If we look at his NHLE of .39 Points per game at age 25 his career could translate into something similar to Fernando Pisani or Joel Ward – a perennial 15+ goal scoring threat that doesn’t shy away from getting physical to win the battles for pucks or space on the ice.

Alexandre Giroux looks impressive with an NHLE of 54 points but when we look at his boxcar stats in context he has a nine year advantage on some of the competition. He should dominate them. We’ll know soon enough as he signed a one-way NHL contract with the Edmonton Oilers earlier this off season.

Chris Borque‘s 52 point NHLE combined with a second best RPP on the Bears makes me wonder if his decision to go to the KHL was a hasty one while Steve Pinizzotto 21 point NHLE at age 26 makes me disagree with the notion he should be one of the first call-ups from Hershey.

NHL equivalencies are just a tool that help us put offensive stats for forwards in context. It takes nothing into account how a player is defensively, whether he is a good skater or performs well in the clutch. It simply tells us “would this player perform on the NHL level and if so what would those stats look like.”

Well, what do you think of our post? Do you think defensive contribution and “hockey intangibles” could provide better insight? Let us know in the comments.

Alexandre Giroux holds the Calder Cup. (Photos by Kyle M.)

One of the greatest Bears of all-time has finally left for a legitimate shot to stick in the NHL. Bears first line Left Wing Alexandre Giroux signed a one-way NHL contract with the Edmonton Oilers early Saturday morning.

Per Mitch Beck of Howlings, Giroux had several good offers on the table and chose Edmonton because he gets to play in front of an old mentor:

The Quebec City native will be reunited with ex-Rangers coach Tom Renney. The left handed shooting Center played for Renney in the one game he got in with the Rangers back in 2005. In that game he played just three shifts and drew a key penalty on the second shift that led to a power play goal.

Giroux told Howlings, that he had other NHL options, including an offer from the New York Islanders. He also had a much more substantial $1.3mm offer from the KHL that he leaves on the table in order to complete his dream of being a regular NHL player. He does it with no regrets. “It was a lot of money and it was a hard decision, but I’m really excited to have this chance to make an NHL roster,” the recently turned 29-year old said. “Coach Renney is a great coach and the organization has such a great history. I’m looking forward to going there and giving it everything I’ve got to help the team become a contender once again and prove I belong there.”

Giroux leaves behind a league in which he completely dominated. His vast accomplishments in Hershey include the following:

• In 2008-09 Giroux was named the AHL MVP. He lead the league in goals (60) and points (98) while playing an abbreviated schedule (69 games) due to an extended 12 game stint in Washington. In total he played 21 games with the Capitals where he totaled 2G and 3A.
• His 60 goal achievement in 2008-09 was an AHL record.
• Also an AHL Record: The Rooster scored goals in 15 consecutive games. The previous owner of the record was none-other-than Brett Hull.
• In 2009-10, Alexandre followed up his MVP season by once again leading the league in goals with 50. The next closest AHL player was his own linemate in Andrew Gordon, who finished the year with 37.
• Giroux also managed to score 5 more points than he did in 2008-09 and go over the century mark (103) for the first time in his 6 year professional career.
• Giroux leaves the Bears second all-time in playoff scoring. He was only four points off Mike Nykoluk for the franchise lead.
• He won back-to-back championships with Hershey in 2008-09 and 2009-10.

I will always remember Giroux as a player who simply was a scoring machine. I will also remember him for being the guy that almost ran me over on the ice after the Bears won the Calder Cup again this year. Well good luck G and I hope to see you return to Washington in an Oilers jersey sometime soon! You’ll be missed!

Other Notes: The Washington Capitals – who have been asleep at the wheel since the Free Agent Doors opened Thursday – signed Goalie Dany Sabourin who is expected to back up Braden Holtby in Hershey next year… Hershey’s third string goalie Jason Bacashihua signed with the Colorado Avalanche today and will play in Lake Erie next year… Kyle Wilson, who had a multiple game stint in Washington last year, was signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Wilson was a 50pt producer in Hershey. His departure further hurts the Capitals’ center depth… Count out Brendan Morrison as one of the options to return to the Capitals via free agency. In this in-depth interview with The Province, B-Mo rips the organization and stresses the team made no adjustments to it’s 1 for 34 powerplay in the playoffs. Worth a read.

Keith Aucoin shoots while Aaron Gagnon surely does nothing meriting a penalty. (Chris Knight / The Patriot-News)

You gotta give the Bears this: they know drama.  Despite the Hershey offense being well tuned and on-target all throughout game five, the visitors could not gain a lead over the Stars.  By the end of regulation, the Bears had notched 37 shots, but all but one were summarily blocked by the excellent Stars netminder Matt Climie.  It took nearly fifteen minutes of extra hockey for Alexander Giroux to finally defeat the Stars defense and create Hershey’s first game-lead of the series.  The Bears beat the Stars 2-1 in overtime to put the series at 3-2, Hershey.

Don’t be mistaken by the low score; this was a 70+ minute exhibition of superb hockey.   The refs all but abandoned the concept of adjudicating hockey.  The two teams traded off in puck domination and net aggression.  Players dove to block shots with astounding frequency, and no player seemed to forget this is the finals– even when exhausted.   Michal Neuvirth, without a doubt, deserves tonight’s MVP nod for having rebuffed the Stars on perhaps a dozen excellent scoring chances.   John Carlson and Kyle Wilson, too, deserve applause for their precise defensive and shot output respectively.

But it was Alexandre Giroux, all but silenced before this play, who stepped up in overtime to score the game-winner. Roo pounced on a loose puck and swatted it in with a tenacity and alacrity that Climie could not match.  After blocking 41 shots, Climie was finally defeated the goalie by Alex’s force of will.  As John Walton would say, “Good morning, good evening, good night!”

The Bears are probably airborne right now, headed home to Hershey for the final one or two games of the series.  The Chocolate and White now have two chances to win the Calder Cup, and they seem more determined to do so than ever.

Clear your social calendar for Monday, June 14.

Above: Chris Bourque skies in the air to keep the puck on his stick. Top: Bourque and Andrew Gordon celebrate the GWG. (Photos by Chris Knight, The Patriot-News)

After an absolutely dreadful start which saw the Bears take a 3-1 deficit into the first intermission, even the most optimistic of Bears fans would have thought that the chances of Hershey coming back in this series were slim. But Head Coach Mark French showed confidence in his players and made the necessary adjustments. He allowed Michal Neuvirth to return in net for the second period, despite witnessing last year’s playoff MVP flub a clearing attempt on a first-period powerplay. Neuvy’s whiff led to Texas’s second goal of the night, an unassisted short-handed goal by Francis Wathier. French then subtlety tinkered with his forward combinations promoting Chris Bourque to the top line and dropping the 2008-09 AHL MVP, Alexandre Giroux, to the second. It paid immediate dividends.

Hershey went on to score five unanswered goals, punctuated by two third period tallies by Andrew Gordon which included the eventual game-winning goal. The Hershey Bears win 6-3. The high-octane offense has returned!

• Tonight marked Hershey’s 9th game in 39 days. Maybe the rust is starting to come off? (Special thanks to fan of the blog Emily Bennett for pointing this out to me via email.)
• I swear Bears’ third-line center, Kyle Wilson, must love NHL10 like I do. He scored both of his goals tonight, Hershey’s 1st and 2nd of the night, via one timers from odd areas in the offensive zone.
• Not to be outdone, Mathieu Perreault had a pair of tallies, and both Keith Aucoin and Chris Bourque had two assists.
• Andrew Gordon’s game-winning goal tonight was a perfect example of why he is such an invaluable player to this club. Gordo set himself in front of the net, and after multiple failed whacks at a loose puck, finally connected on his backhand to give Hershey it’s first lead of the game. John Walton said of the goal, “That is paying the price to win.” While Gregg Mace responded, “Andrew Gordon is one of the heart and soul guys on the Bears.” We agree. We totally agree.
• After giving up 3 tough goals on 11 shots in the first period, Neuvy responded in the clutch by stopping the Stars next 19 shots on goal. He finished with 27 saves on the night and deserves a lot of credit for Hershey’s comeback tonight.
• Patrick Wellar deserves props for his penalty killing tonight. At one point during the second period, I thought I was watching Rod Langway incarnate on the ice as he delivered hit after crunching hit. Wellar also received a Game Misconduct in the third period for his part in a brawl. Well done, Patrick!
• Once again, Steve Pinizzotto played a charged-up game which yielded multiple takeaways and great defense. And once again, Steve Pinizzotto took a completely unneeded penalty, this time a charging call in the third period.
• Caps Employee and reserve goaltender Brett Leonhardt noticed from the stands during a second period TV timeout that Stars Goalie Matt Climie was chirping at the Bears bench. Four goals later, he might have regretted that.

The Bears will now look to even the series at two Wednesday night at 8:30. Make sure to check back in the morning for another installment of Gordo’s Take, as Andrew Gordon will give his view on Game 3. See you then.

The Capitals’ 6-1 domination over the Avalanches shouldn’t be reduced to a single nasty hit, but our journalistic spidey sense tells us that if it bleeds, it ledes. We’ve worried in the past that the team depends too much on Mike Green‘s ice presence, and perhaps other teams are starting to notice, too. In a moment of impotent rage, 240-pound David Koci smeared D-man Greenie into the glass. The poor man’s Chris Cooley did not get up for some time, and did not return to the ice. Russian Machine Never Breaks World Headquarters (located several stories beneath the Green Turtle in historic downtown Frederick) is outfitted with a dedicated, secure phone line for a situations just like this. As soon the Green phone rings, we’ll update you.

What else happened tonight? The Caps beat the living snow out of Colorado.

• Continuing the pattern of giving an AHL call-up the greatest night of his life before unceremoniously dumping him into the wilderness of Pennsylvania, birthday boy Kyle Wilson had two assists and two decent scoring attempts tonight. In his first attempt, the newb practically rushed the net. Great, kid. Don’t get cocky. (Actually, this is the freakin’ Washington Capitals; get as cocky as you want.)  The Hershey Bears farm team remains one of the Caps’ best assets, and that’ll mean a lot come springtime.
• Tomas Fleischmann and Alexander Ovechkin cannot occupy the same talent level at the same time. When Ovie was out, Flash marked up exactly one metric butt-load of goals, but he has produced less in games where Ovie took the offensive lead. The Great 8 did not score tonight, but Tomas damn near snatched a hat trick. If these two players were ever to be superlative at the same time, the basic physical laws governing our universe would cease to be, and you’d be able to smell time or something.
• Once they were three or four ahead, particularly after Matt Bradley‘s goal-by-attrition, it became evident that the Caps were no longer interested in scoring goals, but just enjoyed frequent “hugging parties” behind Anderson’s net. Yes, it was fun and games in Denver. Surely, nothing could spoil this playful night of hockey shenanigans.
• Oh yeah.  David Koci‘s bloodthirst. Wow. For the first half of the game, the Caps looked restrained and well-tuned. Part of Jose Theodore’s success tonight is owed to the fleet of blueliners not allowing rebounds or soft shots. Add to that: our offense was finding every which way to get behind Alexander’s pads.  With that level of domination, it’s not surprising that the frustration would get to the Avs. It is surprising, however, that David Koci would lash out the way he did– viciously boarding Mike Green and running Shaone Morrisonn. Koci’s thuggery represents the kind of hockey the Caps have gotten away from recently, but everytime something like this happens, we have to have the same debate over again. The Caps don’t play hockey the way Alan May, Chris Simon (all praise be upon him), and Donald Brashear used do it; and that’s probably for the best. Enforcers don’t protect, they retaliate. If we’re worried about our most-skilled players getting hurt, we’ll either be too meek or too protective to play effectively. For now we must put our faith into the sage hockey elders, high up in their ivory towers in Toronto, trusting in their infinite wisdom that we will not see Koci again until he’s many thousand dollars poorer and on the NHL-equivalent of work release.
• The thanks of a gracious Caps nation go out to John Erskine, who probably knew going into the fight that Koci would clean his clock.   John has stepped up and dropped gloves a few times this season, probably hoping to get noticed by management.  Even if the hands holding the purse strings haven’t noticed, we have.

It’s after 1 am here on the east coast, and we’re just now getting updates on Shaone (iffy for Friday) and Mike’s (headache/eye could swell shut tomorrow) injuries.  If they are unable to play this weekend, we will be down two defenders.  Semyon Varlamov is still out, presumably nursing his irritated crotch with exotic sea-salt baths and oversized boxer shorts.  And we’re only one game into our three-game jaunt to the frozen north.  The Caps have already lost four of six games against Canadian teams (5 if you consider the Sabres to be Canadian like we do), so this may end up being one of those tough, character-building weeks.  The kind of thing we’ll laugh about come June when we’re all sipping National Bohemian out of Lord Stanley’s Cup.