There was a point during the Capitals’ 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers when it seemed like victory was within reach. That moment came at the close of the second period.

Brooks Laich skated the puck into the Rangers’ zone with ten seconds left to go. He had a decision to make. Leading a 3-on-2 break in the closing seconds, he could have either pulled up and shot the puck from the perimeter, hoping for Jason Chimera to convert the rebound, or he could send a lateral pass over to the Capitals leading scorer, Alex Ovechkin, and see what magic he could make.

Instead, Laich opted for option C: a high-risk, high-reward hailmary saucer pass to Jason Chimera that would have to travel over two defenders’ sticks and somehow find the tape of his stick.

He chose C, and he made it work. Let’s review.

Laich believes Chimera can win a foot race against Dan Girardi…

…And lofts a saucer pass over Marc’s Staal’s stick.

Unreal.

Girardi might think he’s got this…

… but seriously, you guys…

The pass exceeds Girardi reach. It’s placed perfectly. All up to Chimera now.  

The puck lands right in front of Chimera…

… and hops onto the heel of his stick.

Chimera one-times the puck…

And scores though Lundqvist’s five-hole.

Just how Dale drew it up!

Torts is not happy. (Photo credit: Puck Buddys)

It was Chimera’s third goal in six career playoff games against Lundqvist (Thanks, Neil).

Video of the Chimera Goal

The Washington Capitals have pulled the New York Rangers for their opponent in the second round of the playoffs (check the schedule here). This will be the sixth time in history that the Caps and Rangers will square off in a best-of-seven series. But unlike recent years, the Rangers are no underdogs. They finished in first place in the Eastern Conference, just barely missing the President’s Trophy after a loss to some no-name team in the final game of the regular season. Meanwhile the Caps are the scrappy team that no one expected to slay the dragon in round one. It’s going to be a big series between two old Patrick Division rivals.

In preparation, we peaked back at last year’s quarterfinal series between the Caps and Rangers in hopes that it might give us a glimpse at the future. No matter their predictive value, these five games were a freaking blast. Join me for some good memories behind the jump.

Game One: Capitals 2, Rangers 1 (OT)

The first game of the series was a tense one. Going nearly 80 minutes, the Rangers and Caps played tight hockey until Marc Staal made a mistake and Jason Arnott made him pay. Arnott set up special friend Alex Semin for an emotional game winner. Glimpsing a ye olde stat sheet, the Caps dominated possession (plus-19 Fenwick), firing 33 shots on Lundqvist. The Caps cap’n alone had 6 shots, 6 hits, and a goal. It was just brilliant playoff hockey and a rousing start to the postseason.

* ESS% = goalie save percentage while teams are at even strength. Fenwick sums up one team’s shots and misses at even-strenth, subtracted by the other team’s sum of the same. 

Game Two: Capitals 2, Rangers 0

Michal Neuvirth was the star of game two, shutting the door on the Rangers and their 22 shots. Jason Arnott and Jason Chimera recorded goals for the Caps, and John Tortorella dressed Sean Avery, who is unemployed now. The Caps completely suffocated the Rangers, keeping them without a scoring chance for the entirety of the second period. This was the most conservative game of the series, with most of the action going on at neutral and on the perimeters. The Caps left for Manhattan with a two-game lead.

Game Three: Rangers 3, Capitals 2

The Rangers stole the first game at their home rink, but they had to get pretty luck to do it. Although it’s inelegant to whine about penalties a year later, the Rags got all the good whistles this game– putting the Caps shorthanded 7 times and converting on one of those. But the truly bad luck was Brandon Dubinsky‘s freak bounce off Karl Alzner’s shoulder and into Mikey Neuvirth’s net with less than 100 seconds left. This was the Caps’ first regulation loss with Jason Arnott in the lineup; that’s how good this team was last spring.

After the game coach Bruce Boudreau commented on how quiet Madison Square Garden was. New York fans kept that comment in mind.

Game Four: Capitals 4, Rangers 3 (2OT)

This one belongs in the pantheon of classic Caps games. The Capitals played garbage hockey for two periods, earning a three-goal deficit and a potential shutout for Henrik Lundqvist. And then, in the third, the Capitals played what might have been the best period of hockey in the history of the franchise. Alex Semin stole a loose puck to score, and then Marcus Johansson scored two goals to force overtime. And then, in the fifth period, Jason Chimera crashed the net and corralled a rambunctious puck for the game-winner.

Meanwhile, Mike Knuble missed action while getting pins installed in his broken hand. And the fans at Madison Square Garden gave the Caps hell all game long, although something about Chimera’s 2OTGWG seemed to hush them at the very end.

Game Five: Capitals 3, Rangers 1

The Capitals ended the series at home in a rout. The Rangers’ orderly facade slipped into psychosis as the team was whistled for four roughing penalties, two misconducts, and one “abuse of officials” (i.e. Torts getting torty with the refs). Michal Neuvirth maintained a shutout until the game’s final minute. Alex Ovechkin, Semin, and Green each solved Lundqvist and put this one safely out of reach. The Caps cruised to the second round of the playoffs, which we will never discuss again.

And Verizon Center erupted into “we are louder” cheers.

Conclusions

This year’s model of the Washington Capitals doesn’t come with the automatic puck-possession advantage that meant so much in the last series. The Rangers will have the puck more this year (although they’re only slightly better on the Fenwick scale), so the Caps will have compensate in another area.

Plus, the Rangers ranked fourth in the league in blocked shots this season– both a capable mitigation of their problems owning the puck and an affirmation of their team unity. Blueshirts will be diving in front of Washington pucks like it’s going out of style, so a little creativity on offense will be needed.

Whatever criticisms you may have for Michal Neuvirth, he acquitted himself excellently in the 2011 NYR series. Braden Holtby will have to be similarly perfect to outduel Henrik Lundqvist, who is probably in his Vezina year. Here’s hoping Holtby can keep his .940 save percentage alive.

The Caps are going to need star power in net to eke out wins, but they’re also gonna need star power on offense. The last series saw most of its goals come from the big names: Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, and Mike Green. With even less scoring depth than last year, the 2012 Caps will rely on their big players to produce.

No Sean Avery. Haha. As if that were ever a factor. But the Rangers have improved their offense with the addition of Brad Richards, who has been a force multiplier for Marian Gaborik. The Caps defense will have a greater challenge this time around.

But who are we kidding? This series– like the last one— will come down to one question: Who is more willing to crash the net?

Doug Johnson is a Puck Buddy. This is his pregamer. This is teh twitterz.

The Pregame: Fun! Today’s installment of “Places That Smell” has us visiting the big macher of smells, New York City! Boo-yah!

This is fun because it’s true. The entire place is one massive reek… or, more accurately, hundreds of smaller little reeks. Did you know, for instance, that the five boroughs of New York City were formed not for political reasons, but as a way of keeping one smelly New Yorker from having to endure his pungent neighbors? The subway pretty much put an end to that, and now the whole place stinks like the laundry room in a European hostel. Anyone who’s been in either knows this to be gospel truth.

New Yorker

New Yorkers know this as well, but because they also have the thinnest skins of anyone on the planet, they simply cannot stand to hear others say it. So they will talk (or yell) themselves blue in the face trying to convince you that NYC is the single greatest concentration of fantastical awesomeness in the universe. Ugh, we get it. Face it, New York: you’re needier than a public radio pledge drive.

The Puck Drop

That said, needy isn’t the first word that comes to mind with the New York Rangers. Maybe shnook is. Or good… like, scary good. They’re 7-2-1 in the last ten (compare with our 4-3-3) with only the Devils yanking their tails, and at 35-13-3 they have fewer loses that anyone else in the NHL.

So what’s their secret, and how do we kick ‘em in the kishkes?

What Makes Them Hot (And Us Not)

1: Road Weariers. They like playing in their own litter box just a tiny bit less than we like playing in ours – and of late, we haven’t even been doing all that great at Verizon. But where they just have us beat cold is on the road.  The Blueshirts’ 18-7-3 away record is a near inversion of our 9-14-3, with many of our road wins in Canada, which just feels like it should count a little less or something. By this measure, they have serious advantage over us Sunday.

Henrik Lundqvist

2: It’s Good To Be King. There’s a reason Henrik Lundqvist is called King, and it isn’t because he won the looks lottery. The Rangers’ goals for/against of 145/106, is one of the best differentials going and the single stingiest net in the NHL, due largely to the herring-gobbler Lundqvist. You think Tomáš Vokoun looks hot at .920%? Try the King’s .936%. Add to this the fact that the Rangers aren’t shooting  as well as you might think a top team should, and a forecheck that actually works, and it equals a monster in the twine. Plus, he’s a doodyhead.

3: Can Mike Come Out And Play? The Rangers have their over-achievers (Derek Stepan with 6 points in his last 5, and Marian Gaborik with 27G/21A, plus-16 are but two) and their disappointments (Marc Staal, only recently back on the ice, is 0/0 in his last five outings.) But they are generally a healthy team – that weird hit Fedotenko recently took from his own stick one exception – and even their non-stars like Dan Girardi and Ryan “Shillelagh-Face” McDonagh are playing with star-like abandon.

If only the same could be said about the Caps. Laich’s almost-injury a few days back should have sent shivers through the team. We are thin where it counts most, and don’t seem to be making full use of those who are healthy. In addition to missing a vowel, Hamrlik is also missing opportunities lately, and Carlson seems all but forgotten. (Perhaps he should bring a towel.) And now Knoobs is game-day decision for a healthy scratch.

The OT

Ryan McDonagh

We really liked what we saw against the Panthers; we really didn’t like what we saw against the Bruins. We liked the Habs game; we hated the Hurricanes. In general, there’s too much uppy-down on the ice; too many fluky shots or lazy first period play. When we decide to dig in and fight back we’re great, but there have just been too many moments when we’ve folded too early. And yes, we’re well aware that these same things have been said countless times before.

The ace up our sleeve? This is the Capitals’ Dads weekend, and the team shipped up by train with all the fathers in tow. We’re thinking that this is a very good thing. It’s one thing to play in front of a house full of fans in red (or shnooks in blue) but entirely something else to play in front of your biggest boosters.

It’ll be hard, and it may be ugly, but Sunday we’re pulling for an upset Caps victory.

Meme Of The Day

In honor of the Caps Casino Night. As we say in the PuckBuddys house, we’d hit that!

No team has given the Washington Capitals more trouble this season than the New York Rangers. Those 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts pushed some Caps fans into spiritual desolation, broke up several marriages, and probably killed a house cat or two. Fitting then that the Caps and Rags should meet in this first round of the playoffs. You know that old Klingon proverb, right? Revenge is a dish best served by two guys from Russia named Alex.

We were scoreless through two periods when Rangers newbie Matt Gilroy caught a pass from Brandon Prust and beat Michal Neuvirth. With only six minutes and change left in regulation, Alex Ovechkin’s repeated swats forced the puck past Henrik Lundqvist’s pads. And then, after nearly nineteen minutes of overtime hockey and with fatigue setting in, Jason Arnott intercepted a bad clear from Marc Staal and set up Alex Semin for the game-winner. It took damn near eighty minutes, but the good guys pulled it out: the Caps beat the Rangers 2-1 (OT) and take a 1-0 lead in the series.

• Tip your hat to bench boss Bruce Boudreau, who managed shifts in this marathon match capably. No Capitals player clocked over 29 minutes (but Nicky Backstrom came darn close with 28:56) . That might have made the difference when you consider it was the gaffe of New York’s own ice-leader, Marc Staal (33:48), that led to the OTGWG.
• Thanks in large part to a dominant first period, the Capitals led scoring chances 21 to 14.
• The Rangers recovered to put some rubber against Michal Neuvirth eventually, but he turned away nearly all comers as if this weren’t his first post-season NHL appearance. 24 saves. That’s certainly good enough for another start if we’re still talking about such things.
• Neuvirth speaking to CSN about the win: “We just had fun out there.” Now isn’t that a much better credo than “Stay Angry”? Joy leads to success more than crankiness does, and I’m saying this as a professional cranky person.
• Mike Green‘s first game since the late eighties was a success, but he was on ice for half of the Rangers’ scoring chances and the Rags’ only goal. Still, @GreenLife52 at 100% health in the postseason is a sight we’ve not seen before now. Look out for this guy on Friday.
• Brooks Laich went 13-for-18 on the faceoff, but he was perfect until I jinxed him. My bad, Brooksy. Owe you a coke.
• There are few players that combine size and grace like Jason Chimera. If only he could add shooting accuracy to his arsenal. Chimmer had three pristine scoring chances: each missed by a country mile.
• The “Crash the net” refrain isn’t just something cute and gimmicky to shout; it’s a battle plan. NYR goalie Henrik Lundqvist is apparently immune to long bombs, so close combat was the only way to win this one. Alex Ovechkin‘s contribution to the history of crashed nets was a greasy, smash-mouth, ugly mess– but didn’t it just bring a tear to your eye? The video review and delay– they were just theatrics to enhance the story you’ll be telling all day tomorrow.
• When Ovechkin nailed Brandon Prust up high after that goal, disaster loomed. But these aren’t the Capitals of old, and the penalty-kill unit has learned one important new skill: THE SHUTDOWN.
• And then there’s Alex Semin. Bad Sasha, Good Sasha. He committed a hooking penalty so typical, we might think he were caricaturizing himself– like he had been watching old tapes of Andy Kaufmanor something. But under the kindly tutelage of Jason Arnott, Alex Semin found redemption. That game-winning goal was his first post-season marker in two playoff series, since the last time the Caps met the Rangers (which was back in the early eighties).

Joe B's suit of the night (thanks, @philo4th!)

There’s so much more to talk about from this super-sized game: Nicky Backstrom’s ever-lengthening drought, Jason Arnott’s underrated forecheck skills, how John Erskine is liable to kill a human being on national television at some point during this series– but we’re gonna leave it there for now. After all, it’s going to be a loooong post-season.

The Capitals played 80 minutes of gritty, character-revealing hockey. They didn’t get lazy and reckless when they reached exhaustion. Their best players were their best players (whatever that means), and they secured a meaningful victory. I’ve just marked the first of many tallies on the big board. 15 to go.

The Caps now lead the quarterfinal series 1-0, and the Red Army has another battle scheduled for Friday night. Russia’s finest expats will be there, in heart of the nation’s capital, flanked by their brosephs and cheered on by 20,000 unshaven crazy people.

Crash it.

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg.

Ovechpunch! Ovechpunch! (Photo credit: Jim McIsaac)

On Wednesday, the Washington Capitals will take on the New York Rangers in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The Caps haven’t faired well against New York this season, losing three out of four regular season games including 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts. In fact, the 7-0 shutout was so bad, Alex Ovechkin found it necessary to fight. However, that was then. This is now. Let’s take a look at the numbers to preview what should be an interesting matchup.

One of the benefits of sharing scoring chance data is that someone else will write the analysis for you, so if you haven’t checked out Blueshirt Banter’s Statistical Preview of the Caps/Rangers series I highly recommend it.

Based on the first practice before the playoffs, the line combos for the series should look like this:

All have performed well during even strength, putting at worst almost six out of every ten chances (SC%) in Washington’s favor and converting a fairly decent amount of them into goals (Convert%). The gaudy numbers of the Laich-Johansson-Chimera line comes at the expense of a small sample size: only about ten even strength minutes played together.

The “Sasha Whisperer” Jason Arnott should be kept along Semin, but Sturm on the second line is a surprise — at least to me. Those second and third lines are going to be crucial in this seven game series.

As for Washington’s defense, the Caps’ shutdown pair is better than New York’s shutdown pair.

At even strength when the score is tied, John Carlson and Karl Alzner come out way ahead of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi:

More than half of scoring chances (SC%) go in the Caps favor when Carlzner is on the ice, while the Rangers’ “best d-pair” doesn’t even break even.

It’s also not even close on the penalty kill:

So as strong as the Ranger’s defense is, it looks like Alzner and Carlson are better.

New York’s goaltending gives me some cause for concern and it is not because Lundqvist had eleven shutouts. It’s because he seems to have effectively neutralized what has been the Caps strength when it comes to scoring.

Take a quick look at why crashing the net is so important to beating Lundqvist. What I have done here is turned the NYR goals against on the road into a heat map, then superimposed where the Caps have scored their goals when at home.

There are A LOT of Washington goals scored in locations that King Henry has been adept at keeping out of the net. Pay particular attention to the red circles, which are goals by Ovechkin. After seeing that, you can understand why Washington’s secondary scorers will have to step up big time.

I put the chances of Washington winning at 57%, with the most likely scenario being a five or six game triumph.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.