Photo credit: Evan Vucci

This is it. The Caps nipping at the heels of the division-leading Panthers, playing to deny them the clinch and maybe snatch their crown.

Jay Beagle scored early, trapping a Troy Brouwer shot with his rump and firing from the sweet spot. Alex Ovechkin got on the board in the second, crashing the net and converting Marcus Johansson’s rebound. Brooks Laich piled on with a sniper shot from the high slot after a long session in the offensive zone. Mikael Samuelsson was all alone in the Caps zone, breaking the shutout with a high wrister. The Cats made it a one-goal game via Ed Jovanovski’s deflect goal early in the third. Alex Semin made it a four-goal night with a minute left. Caps beat Panthers 4-2. We’re playoff-bound, baby!

• Michal Neuvirth is The Guy– err, at least he was until Marco Sturm collapsed on his knee. Mikey needed assistance to leave the ice. It’s a scary sight– a hyperextension injury would end his season and leave the Caps without either of their goalies.
• No penalty for Sturm on that, but an anonymous source at a high level of the administration did report seeing Greg Williams hand him a tenner during the intermission.
• On the other end of the ice, former Capitals goalie Jose Theodore had a rough night. This was his first game playing at Verizon Center against his old team, and Theo ended up serving succulent rebounds to his old teammates a few times. Four goals against on 24 shots.
• Jay Beagle has been a terrific surprise this spring. He’s been physical on the penalty kill, capable at grinding and drawing penalties, and — oh yeah– he scores now! Beags knows that which is a secret to no one: go to the net and good things happen.
• Also playing like a maniac: Matt Hendricks. Hendricks hit everything wearing skates, including the goalie one time. He may not be producing points, but the game is so much badder ass with him in it.
• Alex Ovechkin‘s ice time is curious. He’s already seen his average ice time fall by more than a minute this season (perhaps expected given his advanced years),  but who would have thought that the Caps’ best player would get less ice than Matt Hendricks (for most of the game at least)? Is this another artifact of Dale Hunter’s precise line-matching?
• The Caps back-halfed the second period. Although they finished with 10 in the middle frame, the Caps hard nary a one before the five-minute mark (same story in the first period). For long spells, it feels like shooting just isn’t a priority for this team– which is mystifying for a team as skilled as this one and playing in a game as climactic as this one was.
• Maybe the problem isn’t about priority, but competence. The Capitals could scarcely effect a breakout in the game’s second half, and Florida had little trouble quelling them on neutral ice.

Final Joe B suit of the night (regular season)

Once upon a time, the Caps enjoyed a three-goal lead in this game. It eroded a bit, but lasted. Whew!

Tonight’s was the CSN Washington’s last game covering the Capitals’ regular season. Joe Beninati, Craig Laughlin, and Al Koken. They’ll be back.

Elsewhere in the league, Buffalo’s big date with Philly went poorly. With that loss, Buffalo is eliminated, and the Capitals have locked up a postseason appearance. There’s just two matters remaining unresolved: at what spot and against which opponent?

We’ll find out on Saturday. If the Canes beat the Panthers in regulation and the Caps beat the Rangers, the Caps will play the Devils in the first round and win the Southeast banner for the fifth consecutive year. Plus, who knows what Ottawa will do?

If you’re the Rangers, and you’ve got the #1 slot all locked up, what do you do on Saturday? Play your star goalie and all your best guys? Try to win it with grinders… or do you tank it and let the Caps win so you can try to play the Panthers in the first round?

Alright, a little pressure is relieved for RMNB4. It’s no longer a playoffs-or-not thing, now it’s a division title-or-not thing. Sounds great. IS PARTY NOW.

BAILAMOS!

Here’s Doug Johnson of the PuckBuddys with your penultimate pregamer. Follow @PuckBuddys.

Early Morning Skate: Our doctor advises those of you with heart issues, temper problems, or who are prone to premature catastrophization to avoid watching the Capitals Thursday night. In fact, why not just turn the TV and iPad off and curl up into a little whimpering ball right now.

The rest of us? We few… we lucky few… are ready for, and this is no hyperbole, the single most cosmically important game for any team since the beginning of time. That said, will the Capitals be ready as well?

Alex Semin

The most cogent analysis we’ve cooked up: heart. Those bad games, they wear on their faces.  When we look at the bench during those bad night, we can see that they just don’t believe in themselves and have already given up.

We’re not giving up, Brave Men in Red, and we believe you haven’t, either. That’s why you must defeat Florida. There are so many permutations of possible outcomes between now and Saturday night, that it makes our hair hurt (or what’s left of it), just trying to comprehend. But for the Caps, as Tim Russert said, it all comes down to, “Florida, Florida, Florida.”  But luckily for us, we don’t have a Supreme Court interfering and screwing things up – this one is on us, all us. No dangling chads this time, just dangles. Dangles, dekes, curls, drags, SHOTS, SHOTS, SHOTS, CRASHING and SCOARING!

The Non-Stat-Tastic Taunting Pregame

People – annoying people, mostly – say that “Washington was built on a swamp.” Haha, but it wasn’t and they’re ass-butts. What is true is that Florida was a swamp, and now has been converted into America’s Garbage Pile of stuff the rest of us don’t want anymore. Think about it: Backstreet Boys. Katherine Harris. Paula Hawkins. Dave Barry. Charlie Crist. All that refuse that sensible types toss away, wanting to forget their mistakes? It just sorta tumbles down the continent and collects in our national sewer. You think we’re kidding about this garbage stuff? The highest elevation in Florida is a measly 345 feet above sea level – that is if you don’t include the state’s approximately 100 landfills. That’s the real FLorida topography.

So just imagine the sort of  goblins that inhabit Sunrise, Florida – the non-ironically-yet-oh-so-tragically-named home of the Panthers. Tod Browning’s Freaks had nothing on this place. Gooble-gobble, they’re awful. And they’re also kinda the recycling heap of the Washington Capitals (which we think unfairly taints the noble cause of recycling.)  “Flash” Fleischmann. “Brads” Bradley. “Blitzkreig” Sturm. And José ”Still So Hot” Theodore. You could be forgiven for thinking this team is just a collection of old rubber bands and dirty doggie-bags…except. Except for the fact that we’ve pretty much been looking up their skirt all season.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t have their number on speed-kill-dial.

The Throw Down in China Town

• Home and Away. Four times we’ve met this year. Twice here, twice down in the urinal / litterbox. At home, we win. Down there, we’re in the toilet. I don’t need to tell you that the Caps still are among the best at-home teams in the League. Or that we play the stink-cats at the Phone Booth.
• Shut Yo’ Mouth. Not only have we won at home, but we’ve shut the kittehs out both times, the Panthers’ longest series of shut-outs yet. We have our Top Cat between the pipes on Thursday, but Jose Pussycat hasn’t logged a win since mid-March, leaving the heavy lifting to Scott Clemenceau or some other surrender monkey.
• Stay Filthy. We’ve noted Ovi’s rouse from Wintertime slumber to Springtime colossus. We’ve seen Nicky take back the dot (or BE the dot) and, hopefully soon, awaken our hibernating power play. We’ve seen Beags start pawing hard at the net while Old Man Kanoooobs never stopped. And, H8ers (or Twenty-H8ers)  I’m talking to you, Alexander Semin has game in/game out continued to show his quality. There is nobody in teh NHL who can snipe like Sasha. That 14 minutes of TOI from the Bolts game was an abomination, and we’re still shaking our heads.  Coach, keep him on the ice, and Sasha, keep it up, Russian Huggy-Bear.
• Any Time Over Time. Yeesh. I’m still in the books as hating overtime, and really hating shoot outs. Yet the Caps have twice in just two weeks shown what a shoot out should look like. Hendy? We’re looking in your direction! Overall, we’ve got the mojo over the Panthers in this category…should it come to it. But it better not. Win in regulation. Close the deal in 60.
• Hollywood Ending. “Forget it, Jose. It’s Chinatown.”

The Throwback Jersey

Look, this has been a heck of a season. And by heck we mean other words our RMNB overlords don’t like us using, even though we’re all grown-ups and know what we’re talking about but have to maintain the façade of politesse because, whatever. We’ve hooted and hollered and fist-bumped and taken too many rides-of-shame home on the Metro. It’s still too early for look backs because we’re still looking forward to playoffs. But at the second to last regular season go-around, we can’t wait for Thursday evening. (And our throw-back jerseys are bad luck to boot.)

7pm on the teevees. Unlike Saturday’s season finale against the Rags, the Thursday game is on CSN. Thank God we won’t have to suffer through the lunatic, hate-filled ranting and raving of the NBC (Nattering Braying Carping) announce team.  And we’ll see you on the Twitters – use the special hashtag: #RussianMachineBreaksYou

Once more into the breach, my friends. CRASH THE NET!

I feel like I’ve seen this person before… (Photo credit: Mitchell Layton)

Fans enter Verizon Center before the season-opener. (Photo credit: Chris Gordon)

One hundred fifty-seven days. That’s a long summer for Caps fans. And Saturday night at 7:09 P.M. Eastern Time when six ounces of vulcanized rubber tumbled toward the ice sheet it was finally over.

“The atmosphere was great,” Alex Ovechkin told reporters after the game. “The fans push us forward all the time. It’s nice to play at home, especially the first game. I know everybody was missing hockey here so it’s nice to come back.”

The trademarks of Caps hockey were all there last night: Sam Wolk pursed his lips to his horn and let lout three loud blasts at the drop of the puck; Wes Johnson bellowed out the name of Alexander Semin (heavy on the “r”) after Washington lit the lamp for the first time this season on Sasha’s tally; William Stilwell, better known as the Goat, let out a thunderous roar of “Let’s Go Caps!” as he stomped the metal beneath his feet when shown on the big screen in the second period.

There have been pre-season games (eight of them to be exact) and practices — a convention too. But nothing lives up to games that actually matter — or maybe do not matter depending on how you look at it. And Caps fans were ready. 18,506 of them packed Verizon Center, good for a sellout crowd at 100.6 percent of capacity, a number that makes sense if you don’t think about it.

“I’m super excited that they’re back,” Caps fan Jenn McAdoo said. “I felt last year they were trying to stay angry. Let’s just hope this year they stay in the playoffs.”

The off-season, which like all recent ones has begun much too early for the Caps’ liking, was one of change. Former playoff stud and ceiling enthusiast Semyon Varlamov was shipped to Denver, though he probably should do some stretching before hitting the slopes in Colorado. Eric Fehr, too, now plays for another team. Same goes for Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, Jason Arnott, Scott Hannan, and Marco Sturm (who was in D.C. for about half has much time as it will take you to read this post). But the team now boasts a new starting netminder — actually, that part might be complicated — in Tomas Vokoun. The D-corps have also received a veteran boost thanks to the acquisition of Roman Hamrlik. The forwards now feature the Hebrew Hammer Jeff Halpern along with former Moose Jaw Warrior Troy Brouwer and former Owen Sound Plater Joel Ward (I love junior hockey). And for fans before 2009 (those exist?), fan favorite Olie Kolzig is also back as a coach.

But enough about the summer. Now it’s finally time for hockey. Glorious hockey.

“I’m really excited for the season to be back because the off-season sucks,” said Caps fan Amanda Hill.

“I have to admit, at the beginning of last year I was a little blasé,” the Goat said. “It was really kind of the status quo team and there was no real reason to think anything had changed. … Starting on July 1st I just felt, ‘This is it; this is a regular season to be excited about because we could actually see a different team out there.’”

“There’re a lot of guys on the Caps that have something to prove and I’m looking forward to seeing them prove it,” he continued.

Washington plans do just that. And though they may be professionals, the team can still get a case of the butterflies.

Said Head Coach Bruce Boudreau: “The crowd’s into it, there are a lot of new guys. Nerves were there. It’s like the first day on the job and going into the office — you’re nervous. Whether you’re a 20-year veteran on the job or just brand new.”

If you took a break from hockey after May 4th, when the Tampa Bay Lightning swept the Washington Capitals out of the playoffs, we completely understand. It was rough. But the new season is here, along with reasons for renewed hope. So in case you’ve been avoiding hockey in general and this blog in particular, we’ve prepared a primer to catch you up.

Here is everything you need to know about the Washington Capitals but were afraid to ask (2011-2012 edition).

Who won the cup?

Boston Bruins. Tim Thomas was a monster. So was their bar tab.

Where’s Semyon Varlamov?

On July 30th, we thought that Varly was headed to the KHL. But the rumor was dubiously sourced, two teams (SKA and Lokomotiv Yaroslavl) disputed Varlamov’s negotiation rights, and the Caps weren’t talking. On July 1st, the first day of free agency, the Capitals dealt Varly to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for some very nice draft picks. As a condition of that deal, if the Avs don’t to make the playoffs those picks get even better.

Who else is gone?

Most of the team’s free agents:

• Matt Bradley was signed by the Florida Panthers.
• Boyd Gordon was signed by the Phoenix Coyotes.
• Jason Arnott is a member of the St. Louis Blues.
• Marco Sturm is in Vancouver on a gig for the Canucks.
• Scott Hannan will play for the Calgary Flames this year.
• And F16 Eric Fehr is a member of the brand-spanking new Winnipeg Jets. Yeah, more on that in a moment.

And Brooks Laich is back?

Is he ever! Brooks Laich signed a monster 6-year, $27M contract on June 28th. You’ll be getting lost in those eyes through 2018.

Who is this new goalie?

“New” is a relative term. Tomas Vokoun is a 35-year-old Czech goalie most recently out of Florida. Because he wants to play on a team with a chance at victory, Vokoun agreed to take a serious pay cut to play for the Caps. This is very good news, as Vokoun is an elite goaltender with a very real chance at the Vezina Trophy for best goalie this year. As sad as I’m sure you are about losing Semyon Varlamov, be heartened that the team has added someone this talented.

Who’s new on defense?

On July 1st George McPhee signed Roman Hamrlik, a grizzled vet who has spent the last four years with the Montreal Canadiens, to a 2-year, $7M contract. Hamrlik represents the added depth and experience that GMGM was looking for in the defensive zone. You can expect him to pair up with Dennis Wideman.

Who’s new up front?

That would be Joel Ward, who got a 4-year, $12M contract with the team on free agency day. Ward distinguished himself with a superb playoff performance with Nashville, scoring seven goals in 12 games, and he has a reputation as a defensively minded forward and hardy penalty killer. With the Caps’ apparent evaporation of secondary scoring, Ward will be expected to produce this year.

And don’t forget Troy Brouwer, who was picked up on draft day. Brouwer is what GMGM calls a “power forward”, a tough guy who will likely see time on the top two lines. McPhee thinks he might put up 20 goals this season.

And what’s this I hear about Olie Kolzig?

Vezina and King Clancy winner and the winning-est goalie in Capitals history, Olaf “Olie” Kolzig has rejoined the team as associate goaltending coach! Olie intends to be here for a while and has sold his insane mansion in the pacific northwest. If you’ll forgive a momentary brag, we talked to Kolzig back in February and told us then he was enthusiastic about future relations with his old team. Maybe we’ll see number 37 retired soon?

Any other new old faces? Maybe one that’ll actually play?

Hell yeah! Caps veteran Jeff Halpern is back with a one-year contract. Halpy was a Cap from 1999 until 2004 and says he “jumped at the opportunity to come back” to the team that launched his NHL career. Between this and the return of Olie, you can expect to see noticeably more blue/black/bronze jerseys around Chinatown this year.

How about those injuries last year?

Dennis Wideman missed the playoffs after a nasty hit to the leg from Carolina’s Tuomo Ruutu (checked: still not a Star Wars character) at the end of the regular season. We heard it was “just a bruise”, but it turned out to be something gross called “compartment syndrome.” Wideman is looking good in the preseason and should be playing on opening night.

Tom Poti missed most of last year with a nagging groin injury. We usually make jokes about groin injuries here, but Poti’s ailment is seriously endangering his hockey career. Tom failed his physical and will likely be on injured reserve status this year.

Any cool drama I need to know about?

Alright, get this: Matt Bradley gives an interview to a Florida radio station and says that Alex Semin doesn’t care. Then David Steckel kinda-sorta says the same thing. And then everyone else jumps to Semin’s defense. And then the dude himself gives two English-language video interviews, which kinda makes you think someone in the organization was really worried about this meme. Speaking of memes, we made some bar graphs about the whole kerfuffle.

In other news, Alex Ovechkin slouched in an interview with Mike Vogel, leading everyone to think he got fat. A subsequent onslaught of notables (including Ted Leonsis himself) defended Alex’s fitness. This in no way justified and perpetuated a ludicrous story that should have been ignored by all sensible people except us and Dan Steinberg.

Just recently the Caps tried out white netting instead of black netting behind the ice, creating a kind of snowblindness for fans who sit at funny angles. People complained, and the white netting lasted exactly one game. Don’t laugh; we actually have to read and write about this stuff.

And any blatant gimmickry I should be aware of?

For 16 road games this year, the Caps will be wearing their third jersey, which is basically the Winter Classic uni. Most of those games will be in February and March, when the Caps will be on the road a lot.

What utterly trivial things did RMNB write about this year?

Nothing except the earthshaking drama of Alex Ovechkin playing soccer, Alex Ovechkin dressing like a wookiee, Alex Ovechkin wearing sweatpants over his jeans, and Alex Ovechkin being on a candy bar.

Hook me up with some #fancystats.

My favorite piece by Neil this summer was The Sasha Index, which tracks how Alex Semin’s janusian nature affects the team’s performance by inventing a brand new statistical metric. You might also be interested in Jeff Halpern’s projected output, the lofty expectations placed on Alex Ovechkin, and who Nick Backstrom should play with.

What’s up with the Caps on the radio?

Longtime Caps play-by-play man Steve Kolbe did not have his contract with the team renewed over the summer. In his place, John Walton, former PR boss and play-by-play guy for the Hershey Bears, will be doing radio and other stuff. Scott Stuccio takes over for the Bears.

How was your summer, Russian Machine Never Breaks?

Oh not bad; thanks for asking. Neil has been contributing to ESPN Insider in addition to WaPo’s Capitals Insider. Ian has two ferrets. I’ve got a new bulldog named Georgia who sits on my coffee table when I’m not home. Chris got his pubes. Fedor and Igor are still Russian, and Rachel is working on her artist chops.

We’ve got bigger news, but let’s save that for later in the week.

What’s going on in the rest of the NHL?

The Atlanta Thrashers are history. The franchise has become the Winnipeg Jets, restoring the team that left for Phoenix in ’96. Manitoba native and newly minted Jet Eric Fehr is particularly happy about this news. The sucky part is that the ‘Peg is still technically in the NHL’s Southeast division, so there’s gonna be a lot of travelling for SE teams this year. The NHL will realign next season.

Sidney Crosby is still recovering from the concussion he suffered at the beginning of 2011. There is no timetable for his return.

Perhaps Washington’s most reviled ex-player, Jaromir Jagr, has returned to the NHL. He will play for the Philadelphia Flyers.

Speaking of Philly, the Winter Classic of 2012 will pit them against the Rangers.

Sean Avery is still a douchebag, but now with a heart of gold. Matt Cooke is still a thug, but wants to reform. The Sedins are still creepy, and that’ll never change. Martin St. Louis is still lilliputian, and he probably wears lifts in his shoes.

What are the expectations for the Caps this year?

Oh man. Well they struggled a bit in the preseason, but let’s pretend that doesn’t matter.

As of right now, The gambling site Bodog has the Caps tied with the Canucks to win the cup at 7:1. Puck Daddy’s profile on the team predicts they’ll advance to the conference finals at least. As long as no one paints any oil paintings, this thing should be a lock.

Crash the net.

Illustrations and layout by Ian Oland; Capitals photos by Chris Gordon.

It looks like six more years of high-fives and tire changes are on tap. (Photo credit: Chris Gordon)

As all of you Brooks Laich fans kept hitting refresh instead of working Tuesday morning, the Capitals announced that the soon to be unrestricted free agent had re-signed with the team to the tune of six years and $27 million.

“There was never a serious consideration to go anywhere else,” Laich said. “The main core of this team is very young and if you can keep that together, you’re looking at a chance to win a championship for potently the next 10 years, rather than just a window of two to three years. That was a great motivator to get me re-signed.”

With an approximate cap hit of $4.5 million, Brooksie is in for a considerable raise from his previous $2.066 million per campaign salary. In fact, the 28 year-old is due to make more in the first season of his new deal than he did over his entire previous contact. Or, in other words, more than Nicklas Backstrom and just $200,000 less than Pavel Freakin’ Datsyuk will make next year. For a forward who tallied just 16 goals in 2010-11, it sure seems like a significant overpayment.

Laich brings more than just goals though. The versatile, two-way forward is a heart and soul player with skill to boot, on a team the often sorely lacks skaters willing to grind it out, explaining why the Capitals most likely overpaid for fear of losing that. What this means, however, is that Washington now has just under nine million in cap space remaining for 2011-12, according to CapGeek.com, with many players left unsigned (RFAs Troy Brouwer, Karl Alzner and Semyon Varlamov; UFAs Jason Arnott, Marco Sturm, Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon and Scott Hannan).

Maybe Uncle Ted wasn’t kidding after all when he said “don’t be surprised if you see some trades” on his blog. Unlike his owner, however, Capitals General Manager George McPhee wasn’t about to tip his hand and delivered terse remarks when it came to the cap. “We’re happy with where we are,” he said.

But no matter who in the dressing room come October, Laich is as focused as ever on his ultimate goal: hoisting the Stanley Cup.

“The regular season success has been great but now it’s time to take it to the next level which is the postseason and you have to learn that,” said the Wawota, Saskatchewan native. “It takes time for young players, young teams to learn how to win at that time and that’s obviously the next level for us. You just don’t make rash decisions based on one bad week of hockey.”

“I think this year, there’s got to be a lot more accountability amongst our players and to the coaches,” Laich continued. “You come back with one goal and that’s to win the Stanley Cup, and that’s what you work for all year long.”

A happier time. (Photo credit: Greg Fiume)

Less than a day after the Caps dropped their second game of the series to Tampa Bay, Bruce Boudreau was asked to assess the state of his club:

“We’re not panicking here. We’re not moving everybody all over the place. We switched lines around because Mike [Knuble] was back in the lineup and we’ll go with that lineup again tomorrow.”

I’m with Bruce on the no panicking part. After all, all three times a team has taken a 2-0 lead on the road against the Washington Capitals, that team has gone on to lose the series. Where he loses me is doing the same thing but expecting different results — especially when there are better options out there.

Earlier this season I looked at all the different line combinations that Boudreau has used to spark the offense, and that got me to thinking how one might optimize their roster. For instance, does Chimera’s speed justify putting him on the top line? Or is Laich the key to having a good secondary scoring line? Perhaps the answer to the latter is yes, but when you are down two games to nothing in the playoffs you have to go with the line combos that have performed the best. Some of you have asked for who my ideal line combos would be, so here they are.

First, I need to address the issue of sample size. With all of Boudreau’s line combinations, there are some that have spent more time together than others, thus we can be more certain of their true impact. I will look only at those combinations that have spent more than 20 minutes on the ice together at even strength, which encompasses around 25 shifts. Boudreau has pulled combos within three shifts on the ice together, so using more than a game’s worth is not something I consider too far fetched. However, just as Holtby sympathizers will argue to ride the “hot hand,” I too will argue that with home-ice advantage squandered it’s time to go all in– and that includes those lines that have seen the best success even if they have had limited time together.

To make my recommendations I looked at a few metrics, the first being scoring chance percentage (SC%), which is simply a ratio of how many even strength scoring chances go in Washington’s favor when this trio is on the ice. Conversion rate is how many goals are scored off of those scoring chances, while Rel Corsi QoC is a metric that helps gauge the quality of competition faced. With all of these numbers, higher is better. I will also include average shot and goal distance to get a sense of if they prefer to work from the perimeter or crash the net. All data will be during even strength, unless otherwise noted.

The top line has seen many iterations, but it has always had one consistent element: Alexander Ovechkin. Despite Backstrom’s troubles he remains the best fit for riding shotgun, which leaves room for one more. Mike Knuble has been given the most time as the third wheel, but due to either his age or deteriorated skill he looks to be a liability for this line. The Chimera Experiment was (thankfully) short lived and while injury perhaps cost him an extended audition for the top spot, I think Eric Fehr has shown more than an ability to not only create chances, but to finish them as well.

The second line is easy, and it starts with Alex Semin. Semin is a rare talent that can put points on the board, and despite frustrating fans and coached alike with stick penalties in the offensive zone, when it comes to goal scoring, there are few peers. When Jason Arnott came over in a trade for David Steckel, he quickly assumed the mantle of The Sasha Whisperer, almost exorcising #BadShasha once and for all. Add Brooks Laich to the mix and you have a second line that has the potential of keeping up with most other team’s first lines in scoring.

Rookie Marcus Johannson has, by all accounts, had a solid inaugural season. He filled in admirably for Backstrom when the Super Swede went down with injury, and has held his own in the faceoff circle. During Game 5 of the Ranger series, we saw MJ90 had a second gear as he scooted down the ice, keeping pace with Chimera on a two on one breakaway that Chimera’s hands of Venus de Milo just couldn’t finish. Still, these two form the cornerstone of the third line, but the third forward is a toss up between Mike Knuble and Marco Sturm.

The fourth line serves a purpose beyond scoring: don’t give up goals against and generate energy. This line takes the majority of defensive zone draws that Backstrom doesn’t and will fight for your honor if the situation warrants. It comes down to grit, and there has been no better combination than Matt Hendricks, Boyd Gordon and Matt Bradley.

Sometimes you believe in the stats. Sometimes you believe in the players. Sometimes you should just throw caution to the wind and roll the dice with the best options you have.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon and Ian Oland.

Ovechpunch! Ovechpunch! (Photo credit: Jim McIsaac)

On Wednesday, the Washington Capitals will take on the New York Rangers in Game One of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The Caps haven’t faired well against New York this season, losing three out of four regular season games including 6-0 and 7-0 shutouts. In fact, the 7-0 shutout was so bad, Alex Ovechkin found it necessary to fight. However, that was then. This is now. Let’s take a look at the numbers to preview what should be an interesting matchup.

One of the benefits of sharing scoring chance data is that someone else will write the analysis for you, so if you haven’t checked out Blueshirt Banter’s Statistical Preview of the Caps/Rangers series I highly recommend it.

Based on the first practice before the playoffs, the line combos for the series should look like this:

All have performed well during even strength, putting at worst almost six out of every ten chances (SC%) in Washington’s favor and converting a fairly decent amount of them into goals (Convert%). The gaudy numbers of the Laich-Johansson-Chimera line comes at the expense of a small sample size: only about ten even strength minutes played together.

The “Sasha Whisperer” Jason Arnott should be kept along Semin, but Sturm on the second line is a surprise — at least to me. Those second and third lines are going to be crucial in this seven game series.

As for Washington’s defense, the Caps’ shutdown pair is better than New York’s shutdown pair.

At even strength when the score is tied, John Carlson and Karl Alzner come out way ahead of Marc Staal and Dan Girardi:

More than half of scoring chances (SC%) go in the Caps favor when Carlzner is on the ice, while the Rangers’ “best d-pair” doesn’t even break even.

It’s also not even close on the penalty kill:

So as strong as the Ranger’s defense is, it looks like Alzner and Carlson are better.

New York’s goaltending gives me some cause for concern and it is not because Lundqvist had eleven shutouts. It’s because he seems to have effectively neutralized what has been the Caps strength when it comes to scoring.

Take a quick look at why crashing the net is so important to beating Lundqvist. What I have done here is turned the NYR goals against on the road into a heat map, then superimposed where the Caps have scored their goals when at home.

There are A LOT of Washington goals scored in locations that King Henry has been adept at keeping out of the net. Pay particular attention to the red circles, which are goals by Ovechkin. After seeing that, you can understand why Washington’s secondary scorers will have to step up big time.

I put the chances of Washington winning at 57%, with the most likely scenario being a five or six game triumph.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon.

Neuvy celebrates with his teammates after coming up victorious in the shootout. (Photo credit: Graig Abel)

What can’t Knuble do? (Photo credit: Graig Abel)

In their first game of the final back-to-back of the season, the Capitals found themselves in Air Canada Centre to face the surging Toronto Maple Leafs. Since the All-Star break, the Leafs have gone a ridiculous and improbable 18-7-5, riding mid-season call-up James Reimer’s (Oops, sorry!) Optimus Reim‘s incredible goaltending back into playoff contention.

Unfortunately for the Leafs, their chances of still making the playoffs were about as likely as Jason Chimera having a 50 goal season: less than one percent. To stave off mathematical elimination for one more night, they had to have either a regulation or overtime win against DC and a loss from Buffalo.

“They have to have every point,” winger Brooks Laich explained to the media after the Capitals pre-game skate. “They have to have every point in regulation the next three games and then hope for the best. This is an elimination game for the Leafs and they’re going to show us their absolute best.

Toronto certainly came out hard, as Nikolai Kulemin tallied the game’s first goal — his 30th of the year — 5:37 into the first period on the power play. After the Leafs brought the puck up the ice with speed, Kulemin cut to the middle of the circles, used Karl Alzner and John Erskine as a screen and flicked a wrist-shot past a helpless Michal Neuvirth. Alex Ovechkin responded 6:49 later with his 300th career goal, blasting a power-play one-timer from inside the left circle past an overpowered Reimer.

Joffrey Lupul regained the Leafs lead in the second period, slipping past Jeff Schultz on a two on two rush and knocking home a brilliant pass from everyone’s favorite last pick in the All-Star Fantasy Draft, Phil Kessel. John Erskine — yes, John Erskine — then answered Lupul’s tally midway through the period, misfiring on a thigh-high shot from the point by nearly five feet. Lucky for Big John, it ricocheted off of Luke Schenn’s rump and into the back of the net. 2-2.

That score held up until the end of regulation. But by then, the Leafs playoff hopes had been dashed as Buffalo defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2. The Sabres victory also ironically clinched the Capitals fourth straight Southeast Division crown.

Neither team managed to score in overtime or the first three rounds of the shootout. So Bruce Boudreau turned to 38-year old Mike Knuble in the bottom of the fourth.

“I was going down the list oldest to youngest and I had Arnott up and then I looked down, I said, ‘Knuble’s older,’ so I went with him,” Boudreau explained. “There’s no science or anything involved in that tonight.”

Kanoobs went on to beat Reimer high and glove side, prompting a raucous celebration at their end of the ice with Neuvy. Caps beat Leafs, 3-2 (SO)!!

• With tonight’s win and Philadelphia’s loss, the Capitals moved into sole possession of first place in the Eastern Conference. If the playoffs started today, the Capitals would be matched up against the New York Rangers in the first round.
• In their last nine games that have gone to overtime, the Capitals have a record of 8-0-1.
• For those who missed it earlier today, Alex Semin did not travel with the team and stayed at home in Washington to rest an unspecified (wrist, wrist, wrist) injury. Via Katie Carrera: “He could play if we wanted him to play today,” Boudreau said. “I hope he’s back tomorrow but if he’s not…. hopefully it will be Saturday. If it’s not, then hopefully it will be the first game of the playoffs.” Coincidentally, the Capitals were not whistled for any stick infractions during the game.
• Rogers Sportsnet revealed during their telecast that Toronto was willing to pull their goalie in the final minutes of overtime because Buffalo held a tie-breaker over them, making a shootout victory worthless. Had there been an empty net goal in OT, it would have been only the fourth time in the modern era (1968 – 2011) that it’s happened. #fancystats
• While the Capitals held a 41-21 advantage in shots, the teams were almost even in regards to scoring chances, with Washington out-chancing Toronto, 22-17.
• The Capitals accrued five chances on the power play tonight, the most they’ve racheted up in a game since they blew out Edmonton 5-0 on March 10th (eight chances, two power play goals).
• Alex Ovechkin‘s 300th career goal was nice. But I was more impressed by the tenaciousness he exhibited throughout the entire game and how hard he competed. Ovi went through three sticks in the first period alone, broke Tyler Bozak’s ankles (figuratively speaking) with a move in the offensive zone and attempted a mind-bending 17 shots over the course of the entire game. Ovechkin also had his customary four hits. The only troubling number I saw in the final box score was Ovechkin’s TOI stat. The Russian Machine played the most minutes of all Capitals fowards (23:36).
• Ovechkin now has 23 goals in 23 career games against the Leafs.
• Despite being the most ineffective defenseman on the ice and looking like like he was skating in mud, Jeff Schultz logged heavy minutes, receiving 26 plus minutes from Bruce Boudreau. Sarge was cleanly beaten to the net by Toronto players on three different occassions, one of which led directly to Joffrey Lupul’s second period goal. If we examine his scoring chances numbers, Mr. Nasty’s awful night is even more evident. Schultz was on the ice for nine chances against — or almost half of Toronto’s chances on the night.
• Nicklas Backstrom was nine of 22 in the faceoff dot (41%) and finished a minus-one on the night. Backstrom has also gone 19 straight scoring chances without a goal. So basically, he’s due.
• Brooks Laich, Jason Chimera and Jason Arnott were each on the ice for only one even strength scoring chance apiece. However, Laich was on the ice for all five power play chances the Capitals generated and also drew a powerplay by himself after going hard to the net in the second period.
• Eric Fehr, Marcus Johansson and Marco Sturm were each on the ice for nine scoring chances for.
• The Leafs’ James Reimer was the hard luck loser tonight. He had several ten belle stops, most notably his diving two-armed save on Marcus Johansson from point-blank range.

• Okay, now I’m starting to see what Leafs fans are getting so excited about. Reimer, who is in the top five of all NHL goalies with 20 wins since the All-Star Break, also has some pretty sweet nicknames such as The Reiminister of Defense. My favorite? The statue. I’ll let Wikipedia explain: “[This nickname] resulted from head coach Wilson’s attempts to suppress the hype around the rookie goalie only a short time into his NHL career, saying “There’s all this [attention] around here, a guy wins a game and we’re ready to build a statue for him.” Awesome.
• Finally, one worrisome stat heading into the playoffs? The Capitals have given up a powerplay goal to their opponents in three of their last four games.

Joe B Suit of the Night

Tonight, the Capitals played an opponent who was in playoffs mode for 59:10 of the game. Tomorrow, they will face a team who was eliminated from the the big dance several weeks ago and has nothing to play for except for pride. If the Capitals can somehow win out Wednesday and Saturday against the Panthers, they will be the Eastern Conference’s number one seed, something that six weeks ago seemed very unlikely. Oh, the wonders of net crashing and a dedication to defense!

See you back here tomorrow night!

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg.

The puck Ovi blasted home for his milestone marker. (Photo credit: Sergey Kocharov)

Photo credit: Graig Abel

If there was one word to define Alex Ovechkin’s game since he landed in Washington way back in 2005, it would be overpowering. Three days after assisting on Jason Arnott’s 400th career tally, the 25-year old Russian became the sixth-youngest player in NHL history to reach 300 career goals with — what else — an unstoppable blast from the point that eluded Maple Leafs goaltender James Reimer on a 5-on-3 power play. It was his 31st of the season. At 25 years and 200 days, Ovechkin reached 300 goals slower than only NHL Hall of Famers Wayne Gretzky (22 years, 321 days), Mario Lemieux (23, 179), Dale Hawerchuk (24, 308), Mike Bossy (25, 60) and Steve Yzerman (25, 176). Ovechkin, who already stands third on the franchise’s goal and point scoring lists in only his sixth professional season, also notched the milestone marker in his 476th NHL game, the seventh-fewest ever. Forwards Brooks Laich and Marco Sturm were credited with the assists. Video of the goal is below the jump.

(Photo credit: Luis M. Alvarez)

Risking dropping their second straight game to a sub-par team, the Washington Capitals were rescued by none other than Jason Chimera, a healthy scratch just a game ago.

For Chimera it was sweet redemption and “especially nice” that it came against his former team, the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Despite the win, victory wasn’t easy for Washington with sloppy play plaguing the Caps throughout the night.

“We did not do a very good job tonight,” veteran center Jason Arnott said. “There were a lot of bouncing pucks, a lot of nonchalant plays that we don’t normally make … We have to clean up our own zone, it starts tomorrow with the video, and try to correct it and come up with a better effort to back our goaltender up.”

Head Coach Bruce Boudreau seemed to agree Arnott’s view that the Capitals must play better in front of young netminder Michal Neuvirth.

“The goals that went in he wasn’t going to stop,” Boudreau said. “When the game is on the line he is there. Doesn’t matter if you have five by him or one by him. He’s really good when the game is on the line, and he had to make some real good saves at the end to preserve it. To me, that is the sign of a real winner.”

The Capitals opened the scoring just 1:39 into the match when John Carlson tipped home the rebound off Chimera’s knuckling shot, which deflected off the catching glove of Jackets goalie Steve Mason. The puck ricocheted off numerous players, including Brooks Laich before Carlson got the lucky bounce. With three minutes remaining in the frame, John Erskine and Jared Boll dropped the gloves. Neither combatant landed many punches, but Boll appeared to get the better of the Lumberjack before the two went down. The Caps dominated in the first period, outshooting the Columbus, 16-4.

Midway through the second stanza, the crazy started happenin’. After a scramble in front of the net, Antoine Vermette popped one past Neuvirth. Just over a minute and a half later, however, Mike Knuble put Washington back on top when he Knuble’d the biscuit into the back of the net after a Nicklas Backstrom shot got past Mason. However, (are you noticing a pattern here) just 42 seconds later Columbus would knot it up once again when Fedor Tyutin fooled Neuvirth with a wrister. Not to be outdone for the second time in as many minutes, Arnott made the score three-two Washington after a great feed for Marco Sturm. Four goals. Two minutes and 17 seconds. Got all that? Didn’t think so.

The Capitals would hold that lead for 14 minutes and 23 seconds into the third, until Scottie Upshall held off both Karl Alzner and Sturm as they tried to remove him from the puck before rifling a wrist shot past Neuvirth. Tie game.

In overtime, well, you know the drill. Chimera chips it in and there’s your ballgame. Caps down Jackets, 4-3 (OT)

• With tonight’s two point performance, the Capitals went over the century mark for the third straight year. With four games left to play, the Capitals have 101 standings points, sitting only one point behind conference-leading Philadelphia. A month ago, if you told us that the Capitals would be challenging for first place with their top defensemen, franchise center, two-time league MVP and both of their star goaltenders struggling with injuries we would have called you crazy. But Washington has weathered the storm. In fact, the Caps have actually found their groove during that time, going 12-2-1 in the month of March, notching an impressive 25 out of a possible 30 standings points. That’s called, you guessed it, staying angry.
• The Capitals dodged a huge bullet before the game when it was announced that Rick Nash would sit due to an undisclosed injury. In eight career games against the Capitals, the Columbus captain has notched seven goals and four assists.
• TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported during the second intermission of the game that Dennis Wideman is in a Washington hospital with a significant leg hematoma as a result of a hit Tuesday by Carolina’s Tuomo Ruutu. After the game, Knuble confirmed the news, saying Wideman has sent pictures, with his leg looking like it’s out of a movie. ”It’s pretty grotesque how Dennis is opened up right now,” Knuble said. “I think he’s pretty much high all the time to deal with the pain.”
• News that Mike Green may participate in his first full Caps practice since suffering a second concussion February 25 blunts the news somewhat. That is, as long a you don’t do a Google image search about Wideman. Really, don’t do it. Don’t.
• How long will Wideman be out? Who knows? But CSN’s Jill Sorenson spoke with Matt Hendricks following the game, with Hendricks saying he suffered a hematoma during the NHL lockout and missed a total of two months.
• The entire Capitals defense was forced to shoulder an even heavier load than normal tonight with only five healthy defensemen available for the final two periods of the game after John Erskine suffered an injury. There were three particularly noteworthy performances. First, John Carlson. In Captain America’s 100th career game, he scored the game’s first goal, notched an assist and had four shots in 25:48 of ice time. Scott Hannan was also exceptional, logging a game-high 28:19, blocking six shots and dishing out three hits. Finally, Jeff Schultz stepped his game up, blocking three shots and being a plus-two in 26:35 of ice time.
• Despite playing just under six minutes, Erskine still managed to register a team-high four hits with his physical play, though one has to think that could be a possible cause for his ailment. Or maybe he suffered it during this completely unnecessary fight with Jared Boll. Most likely, we’ll never know.

• On the opposite end of the spectrum, Tyler Sloan was a minus-one in only 12:55 of time on ice. So essentially there were only four NHL quality defensemen out there.
• Per 106.7 The Fan’s Sky Kerstein, the Capitals have now won six of their last seven shootout or overtime games after losing eight in a row in that fashion earlier in the season.
• The net: crashed
  

  Per NHL.com’s play-by-play, the four goals were from 14, 12, 11 and 14 feet (from the end boards). In other words, net crashed.less than a minute ago via webJapersRink
  JapersRink

Joe B. Suit of the Night

Despite the win, the Jackets rallied three times while down by a goal against the Caps. To succeed in the playoffs you need a killer instinct, something Washington lacked against Columbus.

Four games. That’s all that remains until the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We’ll see you back here Saturday night, though it is Nicklas Backstrom bobblehead day, so we won’t blame you for heading to the game.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland and Neil Greenberg.