I guess it’s appropriate to start by saying that we’re all unimaginably happy about the return of hockey. That said, we’ve learned a lot over the four-month lockout, and this seems like the appropriate time to take stock.

Lesson 1: Mario Lemieux was right

The NHL is a garage league. I’m not talking about riff-raff players spoiling up the staid finesse hockey of a bygone era; I’m talking about business competence. Since my adolescence, the NHL has lost part or all of three seasons. Fans who have been following hockey for a decade have seen 20% of that time obscured or obliterated by lockouts.

Imagine running a business where you do work 80% of the time. The rest of the time you’re struggling to master a skill most functionally social humans learn in kindergarten: sharing. Your business plan is flawed.

The last lockout saw the NHL exiled to cable wilderness, almost literally. In an effort to limit salary expenses, the NHL ended up limiting their TV exposure for years, which had to have an appreciable effect on revenue. Revenue-sharing was at the heart of this lockout, so in some ways this lockout was just an extension of that one.

Or perhaps it’s an extension of expansion. We know many teams– particularly expansion teams– are drowning in red ink. Columbus and Phoenix have solubility problems. Nashville would be in dire trouble too if they weren’t such a good hockey team with a surging fan base. These teams exist because the NHL saw fit to spread itself into non-traditional (read: not northeast US and Canada) markets, but those teams have always struggled. Phoenix for a time was underwritten by the league itself.

I propose that the friction between established teams and small-market teams had as much to do with this lockout as friction between owners and players. In fact, the PA’s negotiating strategy initially tried to wedge the two apart. It seems hard to defend expansion as a business strategy when you consider a) the league has had to bail these teams out, b) the gap between small teams and big teams underpinned many of the NHL’s concerns in the lockout, and c) it’s ice hockey in the freaking desert– how is that a good idea?

I guess what I’m trying to say is: Gary Bettman is not good at his job. Feel free to agree or disagree.

Lesson 2: DC is not a hockeytown

Or at least, it isn’t right now. Flashback to April 2012: the Caps had captured the city’s imagination with a gritty style of hockey. The city’s football team was atrocious and without a good draft position. The city’s baseball team was plagued by injury and youth. The city’s soccer team had missed the playoffs a few years in a row. The city’s basketball team was a disgrace.

Since then, Dan Snyder made some deals to draft Robert Griffin III second overall, and RG3 then vaulted the team to an NFC East Championship. The Nationals were fantastic and made the playoffs (so did Baltimore, nyah nyah). Under coach Ben Olsen, DC United had its best year since they won  the MLS Championship in 2007. The city’s basketball team is still a disgrace.

The stack ranking of DC sports has flipped. It seems for now that the Washington Capitals’ moment has passed. It can certainly be recaptured, but right now we’re taking stock and that stock has definitely dropped.

Part of that is Ted Leonsis’ fault. The Capitals owner was listed among the league’s so-called hardliners spurring the stubbornness that led to breakdowns during negotiations. Unfortunately, Ted probably can’t comment on the CBA or his characterization as a holdout. When he talked about the NBA salary cap in September of 2010, Leonsis was fined $100,000. He’s not really in a position to defend himself, which is fine, because we’re not really in a position to give him a hard time about it. After all, he did keep the Capitals staff on payroll for the duration of the lockout.

Leonsis has the benefit of the doubt. Up until now (and excluding the Jagr era), he’s been a good owner for the fans. This is now his opportunity to reconcile with a community that has cooled towards him.

Lesson 3: Evgeny Kuznetsov and Dale Hunter were right to leave

Throughout 2012, Evgeny Kuznetsov vacillated over playing in the NHL or staying in the KHL. His new marriage and the upcoming Sochi olympics probably factored in to his eventual decision to stay in Russia for two more years, but the loss of half this NHL season makes that choice even more prescient. We’re no longer inclined to criticize a player for making a business decision that has worked out great for him so far.

Same goes with Dale Hunter, a coach for whom I had no shortage of criticism last season. Hunter chose to leave the Caps after just one partial season as head coach. He’s back in Ontario, coaching a team he also owns, which plays in a league that doesn’t implode every 7-10 years. However we disagreed with his coaching tactics, Hunter’s choice was the smart one for him, his family, and his farm. Even Bourne agrees.

Lesson 4: There was a cost

As The Washington Post’s Katie Carrera wrote last month, the lockout has been devastating to businesses near Verizon Center. The end of the lockout will come as great news to the Penn Quarter/Chinatown neighborhood, who rely on the collective thirst and hunger of Caps fans to pay their bills. Here’s hoping all our favorite joints can staff up in the coming weeks.

Same for the workers at Verizon Center, who lost hours due to the lockout.

Then there’s the marginal players who couldn’t make a pro roster once the ranks got crowded with eligible NHL players.

And don’t forget the esteemed hockey writers who had to lower themselves to menial and demeaning tasks like writing about football just to fill up the hours.

There’s lots of people with jobs related directly or tangentially to the Caps, and most of them had a leaner Christmas than usual because of the lockout.

It’ll take time for the coffers to fill and the wounds to heal, but it will require a spirit of reconciliation for that to happen. That’s why I’m not supporting any kind of boycott. Just the opposite actually: I want to go to Iron Horse and Clyde’s and Rocket Bar and scarf down a ton of food and a few too many adult beverages. I want to tip the good workers at Verizon Center and tell them how glad I am to see them again.

And I harbor no hard feelings towards Evgeny Kuznetsov or Dale Hunter for making the right choices for their careers and their families.

And I hold no grudge against Ted Leonsis for whatever role he played in the lockout. He’s got a sterling record of fan outreach, and I bet that will continue.

Gary Bettman, on the other hand? Well, let’s just say that when the Stanley Cup Finals arrive, I’ll be joining in on this tradition:

Alright, that’s my piece. What did you learn from the lockout? What did I get wrong?

Photo credit: Chris Gordon

A 24-year-old Mike Knuble, then a promising forward prospect, played nine games for the Detroit Red Wings during the 1996-97 season.

Players who were still playing during Knuble’s first season in the NHL include Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek, Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Mark Messier, Dino Ciccarelli, Brian Leetch, Grant Fuhr, and Ron Hextall.

Just days after Knuble’s first game, Phil Collins announced that he was leaving Genesis to focus on his solo career, M.C. Hammer wasn’t yet bankrupt, and it would be months before The Daily Show debuts on Comedy Central.

I guess what I am trying to say is Knuble is old getting up there in years, but don’t tell him that.

“I’m out there playing for another deal,” he said. “I’m not riding off into the sunset. I want to make that point clear to everybody. This is no farewell song.”

I agree with him, but it is one of the last tracks on a darn good Greatest Hits album.

Players like Knuble who are productive over the age of 35 tend to keep their production rates in the league relatively stable as they age. Knuble was also a late bloomer: He had averaged eight goals per season his first three years and has almost tripled that production in his last three.

Using wingers who played at 39 years old post-lockout, we can make an educated guess on Knuble’s production for 2011-12. I will caution you that the entire player pool from which to draw from is limited, containing only Bill Guerin, Brendan Shanahan, Mark Recchi, and Teemu Selanne.

Using these players as a guide, we can speculate that Knuble will play 75 games, score 34 points (21 G and 13A) while taking 188 shots on goal.

Here are some probabilities for goals and point scored:

“It’s going to be a challenging year, definitely, with more competition,” cautioned Knuble. “Nothing is guaranteed.”

We couldn’t agree more.

Above, are highlights from the Caps Pens Alumni Game where the two-period exhibition ended in a 5-5 tie. One of my favorite All-Time Capitals, Peter Bondra, tied the game in the final few minutes with a wicked slap shot from the middle of the circles. In Bonzai’s post-game scrum with the media, he revealed that the scrimmage actually got quite intense.

“Early in the game I know what to expect. When the game went on – the old guys actually brought [the intensity level] up. They started hooking, [playing] old-time hockey. There was chopping at the skates. One guy broke a stick on my leg.”

We’re still awaiting word for if that guy was Mario Lemieux. Paul Mulvey (2), Alan May, and Mark Lofthouse also scored for the Capitals, while Ron Francis, Jay Caufield, Rob Brown, Rod Buskas, and Craig Simpson tallied for the Pens.

For more coverage of the first real event on the Winter Classic ice (sorry, media guys), make sure to check out On Frozen Blog and Capitals Insider who’ll be there all weekend.

Photos

Alan May looks to score as Rick Tocchet smiles in the background.

Peter Bondra shows Paul Coffey that he still has some moves.

Lemieux looks to start the break-out.

Craig Simpson scores glove-side on Don Beaupre. Nothing new there!

Yvon Labre shares a laugh with the Pens bench.

Brooks Laich, err I mean Dennis Maruk, looks for a pass in the Neutral Zone.

Sylvain Cote defends Ron Francis. GET YER STICK UP, COTES!

Peter Bondra celebrates his GTG.

The players salute the 10,000 people in attendance at Heinz Field.

Of course. Mario has to be front and center.

Could Ovi join Maurice Richard as one of five players to score 50 in 50?

Alex Ovechkin kept his pace for an 82-goal season intact against the Islanders which got me thinking: is 50 in 50 even close to a reality?

50 goals in the first 50 games is a rare feat indeed. It has only been done by five players: Maurice Richard in 1945. Mike Bossy in 1982. Lemieux in 1989. Brett Hull did it twice, and in back-to-back seasons no less (1990-1 and 1991-2). The Great One accomplished the feat three times: 1982, 1984 and again in 1985. So why not Ovechkin?

To estimate his chances I will use something called a Monte Carlo simulation. It starts with me using the shots on goal and shooting percentage for Ovechkin since he made his debut in the league 5 years ago to the last game of the regular season in 2009-10. Only regular season games were counted. For instance, he has only been held to zero shots on goal 3 out of 396 games, or .76% of the time. He has shot 20% in 32 of his regular season games, or 8.08% of the time.

Using this data, and Excel’s random number generator, I simulated goal-scoring totals for 50 games. Then, I ran this 50-game season 10,000 times and calculated the results.

Before I reveal the chances, take a guess at what you think they are. I’ll wait….

Ok, now that you have your guess, let’s look at the numbers.

Based on 10,000 50-game seasons in my cold, heartless math universe, Ovechkin will average 26 plus or minus 6 goals. He only hit the magical 50+ mark two times out of 10,000 – once with 58 goals and another with 53. He just missed the mark once with 49 goals in 50 games and 48 goals 4 other times.

For kicks I also ran this for an 82-game season when I saw NHL Hot Stove predicted Ovechkin would only score 37 goals. For an 82-game season, I have Ovechkin scoring on average 42 goals, plus or minus 8.

So ~68% of the time he should be between 34 and 50 goals. A 37-goal season looks light. I would take the over.