The Pre-Game: Oh Lordy, we hate being wrong. Especially if it involves Canada. What happened Saturday was nothing short of a national pantsing of the Caps on the equivalent of Canada’s national holiday (that admittedly comes once a week, and with lots of beer). We suspected it would be a high-scoring affair, but completely misread in which direction. Blah blah they were disconnected blither blather they weren’t moving their feet twiddle twaddle they weren’t chasing the pucks and so forth. Not my job to pick over Saturday night’s turkey carcass; others have done that far better. Let others pile on our Mustardy Coach. We’re looking forward to what’s being cooked up tonight.

The Puck Drop

There once was an old couple, well into their nineties. And they always disliked each other; never could stand the sight of each other, really. Finally one day, they got divorced. And people asked: “Why did you wait so long?” And the couple said: “Well, we wanted to wait until the children died.”

Arizona and hockey combine like tin foil in a filling; just caustically bad. I’ll never be convinced Phoenix ever really wanted the Coyotes, or the NHL thought it was a bright idea to move to the land of retirees and peyote. But here they are, locked in a loveless marriage, waiting until the children die to admit their mistake. And now we have to deal with them as they come over for dinner. Happy Holidays.

The Coyotes (“Cai-yotes?”) are one of those teams no-one expects much from, thus rarely disappoint. They do, however, at moments perform like…well, not so much a polished puck-dominating machine (think Red Wings, glory days) as more like decent fellows who nonetheless know how to take advantage of a weakened partner. The Coyotes are the guys in Mexico your mother always warned you about that would slip a roofie into your drink if you were stupid enough to take it.

What Makes Them Hot

Taylor Pyatt

1:Sparks. In any universe, Paul Bissonnette (1-0-1) would be a star. So would Taylor Pyatt (2-4-6). But in this particular universe, they’re really not, ceding the ground to Radim Vrbata (8-7-15), Lauri Korpikoski (3-4-7) and Martin Hanzal (3-8-11), names that would probably be more at home in a Grimm tale*. Still, these three guys are at home on the ice, supporting and boosting the Yotes principal drives (along with defender David Schlemko, more on him in a minute) and pushing them up to a respectable 10-5-3. Controlling them is key. That said, there is nobody who has dreamier eyes than Taylor Pyatt, and you can quote me on that. He should be outlawed.

2: Synergy. Netminder Mike Smith (2.16 GAA), at 6’4″ yet another in the growing trend (har har) of monsters in the twine, is lately sporting a .936%, which puts him in the NHL’s top ten. (OK, top third, if you want to be jerks about it.) Yet it’s not just Smitty’s work in the net, but his fellow defenders as well who can take credit. Rusty Klesla and David Schlemko don’t just have two of the best names in hockey, but they’re some of the best D-men today, meshing with Smith in batting away opponents trying to move pucks to goal. We could take a lesson.

3: Heart: These sections have taken on a strange, 80′s band theme, which we’re stopping now. Still, you have to admit: we didn’t look like we had much heart on the ice in Toronto. Slumps are; laziness happens. Like we said, Arizona is a team just waiting to capitalize on a stronger team that’s acting inconsistently. They’re getting second efforts. They’re playing like guys who aren’t just going to work.

What Makes Them Not

Paul Bissonnette, @biznasty2point0

1: Rage At The Machine: This, and the above item, are admittedly not based on digits and numbers and tables and spreadsheets and everything else people use to try and convince themselves they can understand our unpredictable world. I respect the number crunchers, but have spent enough time around horse tracks to know that everyone’s got a scheme, a formula, a magic something that will predict the outcome of any contest. And, most of the time, they’re wrong. Sometimes a horse just has heart to run hard – or that competitive drive to want to kick dirt in their opponents’ face (yes, horses really do this.) What I’m sensing is an anger, a hard drive, starting to emerge among the Caps unofficial leaders, to spray a little more ice in their opponents faces. Nurture that rage.

2: Crowded House: Smarties will know this better, but watching a few Yotes reviews, their talent (see above) looks like it can tend to chase and crowd the puck, not allowing for good play and transitions between forwards. Given the Caps’ weakness of late in our zone, this may be something we can exploit – to keep away from the net, swipe from their control, and move aggressively on their goal. Then again, what do I know? (Enough to not wear stripes and plaid – SNAP!)

Lauri Korpikoski

3: The Fixx: OK, now we’re just making it up. Except for this: Coach Boudreau – for whom we have great affection and enormous respect – is up against it. He’s tried nice coach; he’s tried hard coach. Now he needs to be Fix-It Coach. Sasha needs to stop his bad behavior and start performing up to his potential – period (Sorry Sasha!) Green’s recovery can’t be rushed, but as soon as he’s able he needs to be back on the ice. Brooks, Ward, Wideman, Halpy are all performing well; Brouwer and Knoobs need more time at the net. Ovie needs to start waking the hell up. None of these things happens without a coach to make it happen. Coach B: Make It So.

Prediction: Ha ha! This is where you all get to laugh at me, yet again. Whatever, chumps; at least I’m taking a line. My line: Caps 3, Coyotes 1.

The Shoot Out

Our benevolent overlords at RMNB have graciously allowed us to pimp the latest PuckBuddys joint: Caps Night Out! This December 3 – Caps v. Sens – the PuckBuddys are sponsoring (Instigating? Occupying?) the first official/unofficial Capitals Night Out, when the organization specifically welcomes GLBT fans to the Phone Booth. We, and TeamDC, are already sold out of tickets, but we’re encouraging everyone so inclined to buy up tix, come to the game, and be out loud and proud that night. Well, every night, but that one in particular. We can’t promise Taylor Pyatt, but there might be a surprise or two that night. Whatever; just come and party with us.

*We so had another joke here, but in interests of international harmony and not being jerks, we went with the lamer “Grimm” gag.

Photo credit: Richard Wolowicz

Head coach Bruce Boudreau is not shying away from having Marcus Johansson center Alex Ovechkin on the top line, so it’s time to put the sophomore Swede under the microscope. Specifically, what can fans expect him to produce in his second season?

Last year, without any NHL history to guide us, centers who played more than 20 games at the age of 20 as a rookie told us it’s reasonable to expect Johansson to play 58 games and register 31 points in his first season. Johansson ended up scoring 13 goals and 14 assists for 27 points in 69 games.

This time, we will use Johansson’s actual NHL stats to match him with players who had comparable production at the same age and then use the development of those peers to generate a projection for 2011-12. Stats are normalized to the 2010-11 season so they can be compared on a level playing field despite being in different eras.

Although he is frequently compared to Washington’s other Swedish center, Nicklas Backstrom, Johansson’s statistical peer group includes Henrik Sedin, Martin Hanzal, and Nikolai Antropov, among others. As you can see, the group is a pretty close match for Johansson’s rookie season:

Almost identical down the line, including Puck Prospectus’ goals versus threshold, which is the value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement player would have contributed.

Even after a solid rookie season, the peer group shows Johansson will get better in year two. Similar players increased their scoring by 12.5 percent and a third of those doubled their GVT the following year.

The big difference, of course, could be in Johansson’s linemates. Centering Ovechkin and Alexander Semin can put the young Swede into the upper bracket of his peer group’s production, leading to a more optimistic projection. But even that would be only a slight improvement to his boxcar stats.

That projection may look low based on Johansson’s performance in the second half of the season, but even if we take a 40-game moving average of his scoring (playoffs included), he still only maxed out to a 43-point pace over an 82-game season.

After a sluggish start, Johansson began to improve game-by-game and by the All-Star break was showing the poise and talent that justified Washington selecting him in the first round of the 2009 entry draft. However, a breakthrough season seems to be at least another year away.

Photo credit: Norm Hall

We’re reaching a key point in the season, as Capitals veteran winger Mike Knuble said after the loss to the Kings, “This road-trip could be great or it could be an absolute embarrassment.”

It seems like all year we’ve been waiting for Washington to just snap out of it and return to last season’s form. But at the start of their matchup with Phoenix, the Caps were fewer points away from being out of playoff position then they were of taking the number one spot in the east.

“If they’re waiting for some switch to magically appear, it’s not going to happen,” head coach Bruce Boudreau said after Saturday’s flop.

It’s time to wake up. And the Capitals certainly didn’t do that Monday night.

The first period was rather uneventful. Aside from an early power play, the Caps had limited scoring opportunities, registering just one even strength shot in the frame. But then in the second, the Caps decided to #CRASHTHENET, as Marcus Johansson used the patented bank it off Martin Hanzal’s foot move, putting Washington on top. However, Hanzal quickly redeemed himself, scoring just 49 seconds later, going five-hole on Capitals goaltender Michal Neuvirth. With less than two and a half minutes left in the period, Ray Whitney gave the ‘Yotes a 2-1 lead when his wrist-shot hit the back of the net. In the third period, Vernon Fiddler would push the Coyotes advantage to two when converted on a 2-on-1. Matt Bradley, however, would answer right back, cutting the lead to one under a minute later, getting a shot past Phoenix ‘keeper Ilya Bryzgalov. But that would be it for Washington. Coyotes beat Caps, 3-2.

• Though the Capitals showed a somewhat renewed sense of urgency, Phoenix kept Washington to the perimeter, blocking 20 of their shots while completely shutting them down in the final minutes of the game. Despite the fact that the Caps out-chanced the ‘Yotes 20-10, they had zero chances in final seven minutes of play. Not something you want when you’re down by just one goal. Would the Capitals of 2009-10 have come back tonight? I don’t know. But this team – at this moment – seems incapable of that.
• If Alex Semin‘s turnovers were paintings, Jobing.com Arena would have been full of Rembrandts tonight. The newly de-mulleted Brian Engblom said of Sasha Minor during the third period, “I don’t think he’s going to need a lot of ice bags tonight.” When you’re one of two guys who skipped the morning skate after a horrible effort at home against the Kings, that’s not exactly what Caps fans want to hear.
• Dmitry Chesnokov of Puck Daddy suggested tonight that Alex Ovechkin should stop shaving. While aesthetically we couldn’t agree more with him, do the statistics concur? Before Ovechkin signed his endorsement deal with Gillette on December 8, the Russian Machine averaged over a point per game, tallying 12 goals and 23 assists in 29 games. Since then, he has nine goals, 12 assists in 28 games. The Capitals were 18-8-3 with a bearded Ovechkin but are significantly worse with the clean-shaven one at 11-10-7. Someone hide his razors!
• After scoring on the power play late in the second period, Ray Whitney was selected for Versus’ intermission interview. He had some interesting things to say about the Capitals new style of play: “After playing against them the last five years in Carolina, eight, six times a year. It’s a totally different team. They still have the same skill level but you can tell they’ve made a conscious effort to play smarter defensively. Not really what I was expecting out of them but they’re certainly doing a good job of it. This is kind of our style of play. We’re kind of comfortable with it. To see them doing that is surprising, but I think they’re on to something. I think that’s what’s going to, as a group, maybe take them up to that next level.”
• Is it time to give up on the Ovechkin-Nicklas Backstrom-Knuble line? The trio didn’t register their first even strength scoring chance until the third period. Eric Fehr, who practiced today without a non-contact jersey for the first time since injuring his shoulder, cannot return soon enough for Washington.
• Even though Mathieu Perreault did not register a point, the feisty Drummondville, Quebec native was on the ice for six chances-for, and only one against. He brought energy all night and was rewarded with three minutes of power play time.

This can’t be stressed enough, this 5-game road-trip is huge for the Capitals. After their loss to the Coyotes, the Caps find themselves in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, making them look at lot more like pretenders than a team with serious Stanley Cup aspirations. We all know the Caps have the skill. It’s time for them for them to look in the mirror decide if they are going to do something with it. The coaching staff isn’t immune either. The general can’t just blame the troops for their poor effort. He must take some responsibility for their actions. If the Capitals keep up the status-quo, they’ll be on the outside looking in.

Additional reporting by Ian Oland and Neil Greenberg.