The Capitals announced Saturday morning that they have re-signed goalie Michal Neuvirth to a two-year contract worth about $2.5 a year. Neuvirth has stopped 91% of all shots against this season, but has largely been shelved (just 13 games played) due to injury, illness, and Braden Holtby’s 91.9% save percentage.

Neuvirth will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the contract.

Press release from the Caps:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – April 27, 2013

Capitals Re-sign Michal Neuvirth

ARLINGTON, Va. – The Washington Capitals have re-signed goaltender Michal Neuvirth to a two-year contract extension, vice president and general manager George McPhee announced today. Neuvirth will earn $2.4 million in 2013-14 and $2.6 million in 2014-15.

Neuvirth (NOY-vihrt), 25, currently ranks third in career wins (55) in Capitals history among goalies originally drafted by the team and owns the sixth-most career wins among active goaltenders aged 25 or younger. The native of Usi Labem, Czech Republic, has posted a 4-5-2 record with a 2.74 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage in 13 games with Washington this season

In 2010-11 Neuvirth set career highs in games played (48), wins (27), goals-against average (2.45) and save percentage (.914; tied) while finishing third amongst rookie goaltenders in wins and goals-against average. He owns the Capitals rookie goaltending record for wins and shutouts (tied) and helped the Capitals eliminate the New York Rangers in the 2011 playoffs.

The 6’1”, 204-pound goaltender, has compiled a 55-35-11 record with a 2.66 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage in 121 career NHL games, all with Washington. He ranks fourth all-time (minimum 3,000 minutes played) in Caps history in goal-against average and third in save percentage. In nine career postseason games, Neuvirth has collected a 4-5 record with a 2.34 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage.

Neuvirth, who wears No. 30 for Washington, won back-to-back Calder Cup championships with Hershey from 2008-10, including winning the Jack A. Butterfield Trophy as the AHL’s playoff MVP in 2009 with a 16-6 record and a 1.92 goals-against average during the playoffs. He won the OHL championship with Plymouth in 2007.

Neuvirth was drafted by the Washington Capitals in the second round (34th overall) of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft.

Check out the Hendyface! (Photo credit: Patrick McDermott)

I was expecting some kind of letdown after the Washington Capitals ensured themselves a playoff spot on Tuesday, but dude. Thursday’s game against the Ottawa Senators wasn’t bad by any stretch, but it didn’t carry the same gravitas now that the Caps are locked in third place. Erik Karlsson’s unlikely return to service was heartening for pure hockey fans, but it’s way too late in the season for us to muster up that kind of neighborliness. Besides, it’s totally possible this is the team the Caps will have to face in the playoffs, so we should probably get the enmity brewing now.

Karlsson got one, then Ovi got one. Then overtime, where ex-Cap Sergei Gonchar won it all because Mike Ribeiro is a liability.

Sens beat Caps 2-1. Ottawa makes the playoffs.

• Matt Cooke injured (and how many sentences have started that way?) Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson in February with a skate slice to his achilles tendon. Most thought he’d be out for the year, but Karlsson made his big comeback in DC on Thursday. The game’s first goal was his, although tipped in by he of the unnecessary consonants, Jakob Silfverberg. Karlsson whipped the puck in from near the blue line, which Silfverberg tipped past Michal Neuvirth. Michal and I both felt that Silfverberg interfered with Neuvy in the same manner that the Caps have been penalized so many times the past, but the refs disagreed.
• If the Caps and the Sens play in the quarterfinals, there’s maybe half a day’s worth of stories about both countries’ capital cities playing. After that it’ll be all tedium and players whose name end in “son.”
• Maybe that’s not entirely true. Ottawa has plenty of peppy players who don’t hesitate to mix it up after a whistle– plus they all race to defend Captain Daniel Alfredsson. That’s exactly what happened when John Erskine mixed things up with 40-year-old Alfie in the third period. The two went off for matching minors (the old guy a bit more reluctantly than big John).
• Ian Oland spreads wisdom on tonight’s opponent:
  (9:12:35 PM) Ian Oland: ottawa are cheaters
  (9:12:39 PM) Ian Oland: they should go on the show cheaters
• On the Caps’ first shot of the third period, Alex Ovechkin got behind the Ottawa defense and backhanded in his 32nd goal of the season. An even-strength, finesse goal in which he carried the puck and beat the defense– just to remind us all that he’s no one-trick pony. What even is a one-trick pony? Who even teaches ponies tricks, and why the hell can’t they all learn more than one? And did anyone see that Paul Simon movie? Sucked. Unlike Ovechkin, who is awesome. #analysis
• Not sure how it happened, but the Capitals surrendered the possession game somewhere near the end of the second period and ended up getting smoked. This may sound trite, but a team that tilts the ice usually goes further than a meeker team. Shoot moar pucks and don’t loaf in the third period.
• Mike Ribeiro failed to sabotage the game with a late-game, offensive-zone penalty for Ribeiroing. Then Steve Oleksy somehow got away with cold-cocking Jakob Silfverberg in the face during play, and yes, I am very happy I got to use the word “cold-cocking” this season. Oleksy didn’t get called for that punch– inconceivably. Then Ribeiro then got caught another goddamn penalty with one-minute left, because I guess if he can’t score then might as well play galactically stupid hockey. Sergei Gonchar scored the OTPPGWG.

Joe B suit of the night

Here’s a scary thought: that might have been Michal Neuvirth‘s last game as a Washington Capital. Neuvy, with all of 13 games played, will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. I doubt the Caps will let him go, but Oates’ preference for Holtby at least makes it a question. Neuvy was a total stud with 39 saves tonight. He’s had an off year, but his rough starts came when the Caps defense was atrocious. I’d really like to see him re-up soon.

And then there’s Mike Ribeiro, for whom I have the opposite feeling. I don’t understand what came over him, but when people talk about selfish penalties, they’re talking about stuff like this. When a player chooses to mix things up with the opponent before considering how it may hurt his team, that’s selfishness. Most of the time that won’t cost you the game, but tonight it did– and it gave the Caps’ most likely playoff opponent a ticket to the dance.

I really don’t wanna see the Senators next week. I’d love a series against the Leafs, but that is now impossible. What match-up do you guys wanna see?

One more game left– Boston on Saturday night. Then the Capitals and RMNB kick things into high gear. Let’s do it.

Photo credit: Francois Lacasse

The Washington Capitals have had it too good for too long. After filling their greedy maws at the trough of the Southeast for so long, they traipsed up to French Canadia to lay a beating upon the beast of the Northeast, the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs, sporting one of the best power plays and possession numbers in the league, were a worthy foe, but the Caps had Ovi. And that’s all you really need these days. Just a big plate of Ovi and wash it down with some Backstrom. Put some greasy Fehr in there if you want, but Ovi is the main dish.

Caps beat Habs 3-2.

• Despite a dominant opening five minutes by the Caps, the Canadiens grabbed an early lead. From behind the net, Prust sent a sneaky pass to late-man Lars Eller, who– and stop me if you’ve heard this one before– was eminently open in the Caps’ slot. Neuvirth didn’t have a chance– unless you expected him to abandon the net and mark a man.
• Alex Ovechkin was shotless nearly halfway through the game, but he scored on his first shot– a weird knucklepuck that Jim Palmer might describe as a “spoonball” between extended stories about himself. Ovi’s move before the shot was the lateral version of every between-the-legs move you’ve ever seen him do. It was gorgeous. Alex Ovechkin is your NHL goal-scoring leader. Alex Ovechkin is the captain of your hockey team. Alex Ovechkin is f#@(&ing awesome. UPDATE: Stamkos scored. We’re back in a tie.
• If Ovechkin gets a trophy– any trophy– be it Hart or Richard or Lindsay, shouldn’t Adam Oates get the Jack Adams? It was Oates who put him at right wing, paired him with Nicky Backstrom (after a too-long failed experiment with Ribeiro), and implemented a 1-3-1 system for the power play. These are Ovi’s goals, but Oates has his smudgy fingerprints on ‘em too.
• Two much quieter plays by Ovechkin I want to highlight: his diving block in the third period (btw Caps were block-crazy tonight– it was like 2010 playoffs in reverse) and his eagerness to deal away the puck in the offensive zone. Ovi did it twice– once in the second period to Johansson and once in the third to Backstrom. Ovechkin seems to have internalized the lesson that he need not touch the puck all the time; he need only touch it last.
• Jack Hillen sent a puck into Carey Price’s blocker pads. The shot went skyward and when it fell, the Caps had the lead. Eric Fehr got credit for the goal, which I didn’t necessarily see, but Fehr certainly deserves it, seeing as he was tilting the ice in the Caps’ favor while the rest of the team was getting mired in their own zone.
• Jack Hillen lost credit for that Fehr goal, but he finally recorded his first Capitals goal in the third period– an outside slapper screened by Alex Ovechkin, who is also awesome. Hillen has 4 points in the last 2 games. He’s been shutting down the opposition (he was basically white on Tavares’ rice last week) and driving play since his return. Some RMNBers were giving me grief about my praise of Hillen earlier, but I think I’ll just pre-emptively take their groveling apologies to le banque.
• Here’s my impersonation of Habs fans: le boooo, le boooo, le pepe le pew was really messed up if you think about it, le boo. If Verizon Center can do that: a) it’d be really annoying, and b) maybe the Caps could get some more friendly whistles. Whattaya guys say? Should we all become cranky canucks?
• Michal Neuvirth put forth the performance that he needed– and we all knew he had in him. Neuvy was pressured heavily in the back half of the first period and most of the second, but he was stout in net. He made a couple insane-o saves, and certainly justified Oates’ decision to play him in back-to-backs. I’m so glad to see the struggling netminder come into his own. Well done, Neuvy.
• Some Canadian guy scored a deflected goal past Neuvy with 3 minutes to go. Whatever.

Joe B suit of the night

Bailamos? Bailamos.

The Caps continue winning– somewhat improbably– dicey road games. Once again, they do it on the strength of Alex Ovechkin. But this time they do it against a truly elite team, a playoff team, a poutine-eating, wine-swilling, French-kissing team. This time they did it with decent possession (although they had to block a truckload of shots in the effort) and secondary scoring.

I’ve been one of the Caps’ biggest doubters, but I… think… the Washington Capitals might be legit. I’m not plotting any parade routes or anything, but I am genuinely excited to see what they do next. That’s a great feeling for a fan, and it’s one I’m so grateful to feel again.

Crash the net.

Photo credit: Greg Fiume

The Washington Capitals’ most valuable player is probably Braden Holtby. After a rough start, Holtby has improved to a solid 91.5% save percentage and recorded four shutouts. That success has been a big part of the Caps’ turnaround in the standings, but it has also given short shrift to Michal Neuvirth, whose future with the Capitals has become murky.

Neuvirth has started just 9 games this season. Coach Adam Oates has consistently turned to Holtby’s hot hand (despite how nebulous that myth is) whenever he had the option. Neuvirth has missed his recent opportunities to start due to illness and then general wooziness following a shot to his mask at practice last week. With Neuvirth playing his worst in a contract year at the same time Holtby is locking down the #1 goalie slot, no wonder there’s chatter about Neuvirth getting courted by the KHL.

Neuvirth has saved about 90% of the shots he’s faced this season, a bit below his career average of 90.8%. Of course, that’s coming from a meager sample of games (just 9 starts and 10 games played), most of them from when the Caps were atrocious (half of Neuvirth’s games were played in January). Defensive breakdowns and odd-man rushes demolished both goalies’ stats in those early games and locked the team in the basement of the Eastern Conference, though we shouldn’t absolve Neuvirth of his performance.

Since around Valentine’s, it’s been all Holtby all the time, and while the Caps have seen their possession game erode over that span, the team’s goaltending has definitely improved. Goal support and some sharpshooting has certainly helped Holtby as well. It looks like Holtby has gotten all the breaks. This next table compares the goalies’ performance and team support in games they’ve started*.

Neuvirth and Holtby have seen a similar volume of shots in their starts, but Holtby has certainly done a better job with it. And while the Caps put around the same number of shots on the other team’s net, the puck goes in a lot more when Holtby starts. That drastic change in goal support is one of the main reasons why “wins” is an awful way to measure a goalie’s performance. That said, it’s apparent that Holtby has been the superior goalie even measuring purely off save rate.

Everything seems to be going wrong for the young Czech goalie: declined performance, no goal support, failures in team defense, badly timed illnesses and injuries, and a coach who loves to play the hot hand (even though, again, that’s a silly proposition). Neuvirth has remained publicly optimistic despite the setbacks, telling the Post’s Katie Carrera, “I wish I play more but it is what it is. I gotta handle it, but I’m looking forward to next game.”

With only twelve games remaining before the end of the season (and Neuvirth’s contract), time is running out. Cue rumors of contract offers from the KHL!

We first heard the rumor on a Czech site that you’ll have to translate for yourself. Neuvirth’s European agent then confirmed it as quoted in a report by Sports.ru and translated by RMNB’s Igor Kleyner:

“Neuvirth has drawn interest in the KHL. Re-signing with Washington will depend on how further negotiations will go,” said agent Vladimir Vujtek, according to hokej.cz.

Then, via email, Neuvirth’s NHL agent Patrik Stefan confirmed interest from the KHL, but emphasized that Neuvirth is focused on helping his team make the playoffs.

Neuvirth will be a restricted free agent at the end of this season. His current contract is worth $1.15 million a year. Given his troubled performance this year, the team’s reliance on Holtby as its number one goalie, and offers from teams outside the league, Neuvirth’s contract negotiations should be pretty interesting. Neuvirth will be seeking an opportunity to play and a contract to take him into unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely the Capitals would be willing to part with his rights, but it’s difficult to predict at this point what a new contract may look like.

* Caveat: Started game stats includes figures for the replacement goalie (twice for Holtby, once for Neuvy). That’s not ideal, although it doesn’t seem to color the data dramatically.

Photo credit: DaveArt.com

Though recently we’ve seen him in a baseball cap more often than not, Michal Neuvirth‘s got a new mask. As with all Neuvy’s lids, the latest one was done by masterful Swedish airbrush artist Dave Gunnarsson, who posted pictures on his Facebook page. This is sad news for us at RMNB as Neuvy’s current Olie Kolzig Memorial Mask is a favorite of ours. The old mask lionizes former Capitals great Olie Kolzig on one side along and Czech netminder Jiří Holeček on the other. Neuvy has yet to wear his new mask, so the old one is still around for now.

The new mask features a large image of Washington’s Weagle logo on the front, but with the head chopped off and replaced with a more realistic rendering. The right side, as always, sports an image of Strekov Castle from Neuvirth’s hometown in the Czech Republic.

“Just as usual the design is pumped with details and hidden messages,” Gunnarsson, who designs masks for many NHL goaltenders, including Braden Holtby, wrote on Facebook. “It is so exciting to create a design in old school style mixed with top modern fx.”

Ovi’s smiles are getting progressively weirder as the night goes on. (Photo credit: @ovi8)

With Alex Ovechkin scoring his 700th point and the Capitals escaping Raleigh with a win over division-leading Carolina, the players were in a festive mood. That might explain why half the team started tweeting after the game, shooting congratulations to Ovi (#respect), describing the victory with a three-letter word, and posting… well… other weird things.

Take a look for yourself.

Big win for us tonight!And was excited to wear the new Bauer skate APX2. #caps#bauer twitter.com/backstrom19/st…

— Nicklas Backstrom (@backstrom19) March 15, 2013

@mayhockeycsn @laughlin18 haha.. I think me and @laughlin18 will have good chemistry:)

— Nicklas Backstrom (@backstrom19) March 15, 2013

Lol “@backstrom19: Big win for us tonight!And was excited to wear the new Bauer skate APX2. #caps#bauer twitter.com/backstrom19/st…”

— John Carlson (@JohnCarlson74) March 15, 2013

Big win boy!big 2pts we back on track!!!!

— Alex Ovechkin (@ovi8) March 15, 2013

Great win for the @washcaps. Check out this picture yesterday, Matty P got some new furniture. twitter.com/JohnCarlson74/…

— John Carlson (@JohnCarlson74) March 15, 2013

Huge W for us tonight #caps

— Michal Neuvirth (@mneuvirth30) March 15, 2013

Great character win 4the @washcaps !!! & a follow from @johncarlson74. Does this mean we are putting our 2 touch battle to rest? #Frenemies

— Steven Oleksy (@StevenOleksy) March 15, 2013

Congrats to my mom and my brother team Dynamo wommen basketballl club to win a big tournoment!!! twitter.com/ovi8/status/31…

— Alex Ovechkin (@ovi8) March 15, 2013

Big win for the caps!!!!

— mike ribeiro (@ribz9) March 15, 2013

@greenlife52 @mjohansson90@backstrom19 boys goes to boston and mike almost breaks his neck bc he wants to be in pic twitter.com/ovi8/status/31…

— Alex Ovechkin (@ovi8) March 15, 2013

Also a huge congrats 2 @ovi8 hitting the 700 point mark but making it 701 a few minutes just 2make sure the milestone was reached. #Respect

— Steven Oleksy (@StevenOleksy) March 15, 2013

Ovechkin with his 700th career point tonight. Amongst all the criticism, no doubt still one of the best players in the league #respect

— Tom Wilson (@tom_wilso) March 15, 2013

We need to get @jrandalward42 horizontal. He is fading on the bus…fast. twitter.com/tbrouwer20/sta…

— Troy Brouwer (@tbrouwer20) March 15, 2013

Photo credit: Gregg Forwerck

The Washington Capitals got rocked by Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday. Thursday looked like more of the same until Alex Ovechkin threw the team over his husky Russian shoulders and carried them kicking and screaming into the W.

This one could have gone very different. It’s good to know your Capitals can still surprise you.

Caps beat Canes 3-2.

• Alex Semin scored 74 seconds into the game– an easy one from the paint as Marcus Johansson lost his assignment while searching for his stick. It was kind of a classic Semin game: he whiffed on two great opportunities after that.
• Jeff Skinner ran into Tomas Kundratek‘s knee in the first period, sending the Hershey call-up to the locker room for the rest of the game. In his absence, Steve Oleksy ate up a lot of ice time and finished with a minus-11 Corsi. So… ouch.
• That second goal was a weird-ass, slow-rolling, knuckle-y deflection. I can’t in good conscience put Michal Neuvirth on the hook for that one or the point-blank bullet from Semin. Great work from Neuvy in net.
• Eric Fehr nearly had a repeat of that goal-of-the-year nominee. He didn’t get the goal, but he did draw a penalty in the effort. Why doesn’t he have a new contract yet?
• Settle a bet for me: does Raleigh’s horn guy sound like a drunk Louis Armstrong or Sam Wolk with sinusitis?
• Alex Ovechkin hit the 700-point mark with his 3rd period power play goal. As Neil Greenberg points out, Ovi’s 700 is just about 50/50 goals and assists. Kid’s got a bright future ahead of him– either as a goal-scorer or playmaker. Ovi led both teams in shots on goal with 6.
• Joey Crabb caught a penalty for a phantom boarding hit. In reality, Bobby Sanguinetti (spelled it right on my first try!) just fell and hit the corner nastily. No malice in it, which I guess the refs realized, as they gave the Caps a make-up cool soon after.
• Eric Fehr and Alex Semin got matching minors for roughing in the third. It felt weird to type that. We didn’t even get to see it happen. Dammit.
• Alex Ovechkin got behind the Carolina D and suckered Ellis out of net to secure the game-winner. I’m not sure if he knocked it in or if Ribeiro or Fehr was the agent. I don’t truly care. Alex Ovechkin won this game.

Joe B suit of the night

This game was as bad as it gets through 20 minutes. The second period showed some improvement, but it’s not in my nature to get interpret a Joey Crabb goal as a turning of the tide. No, it was Alex Ovechkin who gave this game some spirit in the third period with that power play goal. It was Alex Ovechkin who won this game by putting the puck behind Dan Ellis with just over two minutes left.

Leadership from your captain. In a week of harsh scrutiny, could you ask for anything more?

I don’t think the Caps have life in the postseason, but they played with heart and sometimes that’s enough. That’s enough tonight.

WHAT THE WHAT WHATY THE OWQUUOUQWF GOALLLL OVIIII OR FEHHHRRR WHO CARES GOAL

— RMNB (@russianmachine) March 15, 2013

Photo credit: Patrick McDermott

After a misstep on Long Island, the Washington Capitals hoped to regain their footing while hosting the New York Rangers on Sunday. After a quick start, the Caps lost control of the game. A snazzy goal by Steve Oleksy in the first period gave the Caps the lead, but the Rangers retaliated with four goals– two of them scored after penalties by Alex Ovechkin. Holtby was chased from the net, and the Caps never really mounted a palpable comeback.

Rangers beat Caps 4-1.

• Possession predicts victory. The Rangers outshot the Capitals at even strength 29 to 19. The Caps can still win games like that, but they can’t do it often. This team has to own the puck, or else they’ll remain a bottom-10 team.
• Steve Oleksy continues his fairy tale. His first period goal exhibited his best virtue: the dude shoots. From anywhere and anywhen, Oleksy doesn’t have the meekness that kept Dmitry Orlov from getting noticed last season. Hip checks are great and all, but if you can put rubber on net, you have a better chance at a future in the big league.
• New York’s first goal was a Derek Stepan softy that banked off Holtby’s skate. Braden Holtby should have locked down that post. That’s what happened, but here’s what you heard on NBC:
• Alex Ovechkin‘s missed hit on Stepan at neutral ice was the cause of both that goal and the momentum shift in the first period. No, NBC, that’s bullpucky. Stepan stepped outside of Ovechkin’s path, so for Ovi to make the hit he’d have to stick a knee out and risk both injury and suspension. Ovechkin already got whistled for interference on a late hit earlier this week; he was smart not to push his luck today. That said, any Caps fan would prefer that Ovi hauled ass afterwards, but to say that this non-event precipitated the goal is absurd. It just exposes Jones and Olczyk as dilettantes who can’t speak intelligently about tactics, so they have to compensate with ad hominem nonsense.
• Alright, this is basically an all-Ovi recap. Ovechkin committed two penalties before the Rangers’ second goal: a hold and a trip (the trip is not on the game summary). The Rangers converted on the delayed penalty and then again on the power play. I’m really baffled as to how Ovechkin committed the hold, but either way: not a sterling shift by the Caps captain. At least he attempted a block on the Boyle goal.
• Let’s suppose for a second that the Capitals truly are hated by the refs– and maybe that’s true– I dunno. How do the Capitals rehab that image? How do they get the calls they want? This is not a rhetorical question; I really want to know.
• Marcus Johansson returned to active duty since his concussion/interminable benching. 1 shot, 1 assist, 15 minutes on ice, and some strong play along the boards. I think he was pretty awful on the Rangers’ fourth goal, but overall it’s good to see him back and building trade value. Sorry, that was snide.
• Still, I wonder why Wolski and Perreault were in the press box today while fellas like Joey Crabb and Aaron Volpatti get sweaters.
• Braden Holtby was relieved before the game’s halfway mark, but not before he surrendered three goals on 19 shots. It was not Holtby’s best day. Michal Neuvirth took over in net, appearing for the first time since February 7th, which I’m told is NOT actually Valentine’s Day. After too many setbacks, it’s great to see Neuvy healthy and given the opportunity to stop some pucks again.
• Alex Ovechkin is still stuck at 699.
• Is anyone else strangely fine with the new Fall Out Boy song getting played at Caps games? That song was basically designed to be played in arenas, and pretty much anything is better than Gary Glitter. Feel free to call me names in the comments.

Dammit, world. Stop making me defend Alex Ovechkin. I am NOT happy with his play either. Still, there are good ways and bad ways to have this conversation.

For example, if your argument includes the phrases “like a man” or “European-style”, you may benefit from some inward reflection before you turn your gaze out. If your point alternates between demanding that Ovechkin become a pure goal scorer and becoming a two-way forward, there may possibly be some coherence problems. And if your point is just an excuse to advance your own Q-rating or get some ad impressions, you are probably not intellectually honest.

But if you are prepared to acknowledge the inevitable decline that comes with age while leveling criticism at Alex’s backchecking speed, have at it. If you are cognizant of the lower level of talent skating with Alex since 2010 while you question the merit in him handling the puck so much at neutral ice, now we’re on to something. That’s how we’ll have a good discussion– by understanding and internalizing the opposition’s points while refining our own.

Alright, I’m off the soapbox. I am burning the soapbox along with the game tape. This game — this whole weekend– was a stinker, but it’s over now.

This coming week will be the most important of the Capitals season. A home-and-home series with the Carolina Hurricanes could launch them closer to the division leader, or it could put the division title safely out of reach.

No pressure.

Photo credit: Patrick McDermott

A few weeks ago I published a piece explaining why I wasn’t freaking out the Capitals. My point was that bad luck had been quashing good possession numbers, a trend that I predicted would soon reverse. That did not happen.

The Caps have just two wins through eleven games, making them the worst team in the league. During media time on Friday, General Manager George McPhee primarily blamed that record on bad goaltending and undisciplined, “selfish” penalties. CSN’s Alan May agrees.

I admitted on Thursday night that I was baffled by why the Caps were losing, so I thought we could use this time to figure out what exactly isn’t working. Because I’m pretty sure it’s not the penalties.

I guess I should start by checking in on my previous assertion: that the Caps are a good possession team with bad luck.

That is not really true anymore. While PDO remains low, the Caps’ possession advantage has fallen. Going by Behind the Net’s Close Fenwick stat (percentage of pucks going at the other guy’s net while the score is close), the Caps are now 21st out of 30 teams with just 47.51 percent. That number has really got to be above 50.

The Caps lost four of the five games in which they outshot their opponents, usually a signifier of success, and that’s why I thought luck would turn around. It hasn’t happened yet.

That is part of why I’ve begun to worry about the resolution of the PDO stat in describing the Caps. PDO adds up the team’s shooting percentage and save percentage to try to quantify how bad bounces affect output. Through eleven games, the Caps have had above-average PDO just three times, including both of their wins. Earlier this week, Cam Charron of NHLNumbers ranked the Caps as the league’s 4th most unlucky team with an aggregate PDO of just 967 (the average is 1000).

To try and get more information out of it, I’ve broken down PDO into its component parts, shooting and saving.

Shooting

The Caps rank 15th in the league at 5-on-5 shots on goal, meaning they’re right in the middle of the pack when it comes to putting rubber on net. But in actual scoring, the Caps are a dismal 28th out of 30– so about half the league is scoring more despite shooting less than the Caps.

You could chalk that disparity up to a number of factors: the scoring talent of the team or a system that might not privilege high-percentage shots, but I think the most likely culprit is luck. I still maintain the Caps scoring will naturally improve over time. That’s not to say they shouldn’t be shooting more and crashing the net more– they definitely should, but even the Washington Capitals of the last few weeks will eventually break the 3-goal plateau just by getting lucky.

Oh hey, Elliot. (Photo credit: Patrick McDermott)

Goaltending

The other half of PDO is goaltending, which I think is the Caps’ biggest problem right now. Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby combine for an .875 save percentage, miles below average and among the three worst in the league despite seeing fewer shots against than 11 other teams in the league. Last time, I said that the goalies were just suffering horrific luck, but now I’m not so sure.

Over the last few years, Michal Neuvirth‘s save percentage has been 91 percent, which is a little below average. Through 180 shots this season he has stopped just 89 percent. We know that Neuvy has been observed to have  a .91 Sv% over 2800 shots, which would make his true talent level somewhere between .899 and .920. But let’s go with the  middle, .910. Based on that, the chances of his decline this season being an artifact of luck is just 19.2 percent (see the bottom of this post for notes on nerdery). It’s plausible, but I suspect there is something else going on as well– namely a poor team defense allowing too many high-risk shots. Put another way: Neuvy is getting screwed.

I ran the same function on Braden Holtby to dramatically different results. Holtby has seen far fewer shots over his NHL career than Neuvy, so the data we have to pull from is less mature. That’s why I’m more than a bit dubious that his true talent level is .93 Sv%. If he were truly that good, there’d be less than a 1 percent chance he’d be performing so badly this year.

So while I think we need to forgive Neuvirth for some of his play so far, I think we should also admit that Holtby is neither as good as he was during last year’s playoffs, nor as bad as he’s been this year.

Penalties

In his press conference, George McPhee blamed penalties for the team’s poor performance. I’m not so sure about that. The Caps are just 13th in the league in penalty minutes per game and minor penalties per game– not so bad, really. What’s bad is what happens when the Capitals actually are a man-down (or two). The team ranks 27th in the league in penalty killing with a terrible 70.6 kill rate.

So it’s not how many times they’re going on the PK, it’s how bad they are once they do.

Given the problems we saw above regarding goaltending and team defense, I suspect when those improve so too will the PK unit. We may be dealing with just one problem with two manifestations.

And we can safely dismiss the power play as a problem.  The Washington power play is converting 21.4 percent of their opportunities, good for 12th in the league, partially due to the efforts of offseason pick-up Mike Ribeiro. Captain Alex Ovechkin has become a power play machine as well, consistently firing shots from the left circle that either hit the net or create a rebound opportunity in the crease. If Ovechkin keeps that up, and with more traffic up front, we may see even better PP numbers from the Caps.

I’m not doubling down on my earlier assertion. While the Caps will see some improvement just due to progression to the mean, the goaltending numbers we’ve seen (from Neuvirth at least) may be too dramatic to simply be explained away by luck. But if we accept that the Capitals’ main problems are goaltending and the penalty kill, we may see both improve simultaneously as the Caps better adjust to the Oates system.

With the exception of a few bad apples, I still think George McPhee has built a good roster that — with augmentation– could again become a competitor. I’m not advocating blowing it up (despite the atomic bomb imagery I’m using in recaps). The Caps just need a little scoring help, a renewed commitment to team defense, and the patience of a monk.

Of course, none of that should excuse the Caps from their basic obligations: crash the net and scoar moar goals.

Notes

With help from boy genius Steven Kern, I used R’s binomial test function to calculate the chances of Holtby’s and Neuvy’s seasons being pure luck. I used regular season data from the last two seasons to get Neuvirth’s save percentage, but I had to use the postseason to get (much less reliable) numbers for Holtby.

Neuvirth: binom.test(160,180,0.91, alternative="less")
Holtby: binom.test(126,147,0.93, alternative="less")

UPDATE: I clarified the difference between Neuvirth’s  true talent and observed talent. Thanks!

Photo credit: Patrick McDermott

I wrote on our mission statement that hockey should be as fun to read about as it is to watch. So what happens when hockey– Caps hockey at least– becomes a chore? Tuesday’s game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals was another messy loss, and gnome amount of puns will cheer us up right now.

The Leafs scored first, JVR seizing upon a communication breakdown between Neuvirth and Poti behind the Caps net. JVR struck again after Washington’s defense temporarily lost motor function. Marcus Johansson got his first of the year late in the first after Tomas Kundratek gave him a nice feed at the back door. Korbinan Holzer got his first NHL goal with a tricky long bomb. Mike Ribeiro executed a nice zone entry and passing sequence by sinking a powerplay goal, but the Leafs emerged victorious.

Leafs beat Caps 3-2.

• Of course Marcus Johansson scores 24 hours after we publish a treatise on how bad he’s been. Glad to see it Marcus get on the board… [evil mustache-twirl] …as it increases his trade value! Tomas Kundratek‘s pass to Mojo was a work of art as well, a well earned first NHL point for the young D-man.
• I’m ecstatic that Mojo scored, but he still has the worst underlying numbers on the team. He should be kept away from Alex Ovechkin at all costs, not paired with him to start the third period.
• Tom Poti had an eventful first period. First, he took a dangerous hit into the boards from Leo Komarov and stood up for himself. Ten he was the trailing D on a nice two-man rush with a decent chance at scoring, but later on that shift it all fell apart. Neuvirth retrieved the puck behind the net, flinched as if he was gonna clear, and then took his time returning the net. Poti seemed unsure if he was supposed to take the puck over, which gave Toronto’s JVR the opportunity to steal the puck and wrap it around.
• Korbinian Holzer is not a hockey player name. Korbinian Holzer is the name of a war criminal from Belarus. Korbinian Holzer is a minor character in a Vonnegut novel. Korbinian Holzer is the spice smuggler who sabotaged your primary buffer panel when you were trying to make the Kessell run in 11.8 parsecs.
• Did Joe B say that Beagle is a bloodhound along the boards? If so, niiiiiiice.
• Close calls: the more desperate your team is, the more they sting. When the Verizon Center spotlight comes on or Ovi puts his arms up in a “eff you I’m an anteater” pose it is even worse.
• Mike Ribeiro is the Caps best player right now, perhaps because he’s the least Capitals-y player (which is to say he’s new). That makes 3 goals for Ribs– all on the power play, and he leads the team in points. Ian says he deserves a 10-year, $200-million contract, and I think he’s exaggerating only a little.
• Agent Steckel: You are discovered. Your cover is blown. Get out now. p.s. thanks for blowing that empty-netter. <3 RMNB
• Michal Neuvirth, yikes. You’d think by now one of the Caps goalies would accidentally get a SV% above .900, right?
• Who is this JVR person?

Joe B suit of the night

Three years ago the Caps were the best team in the league. Right now they’re the worst. 30th out of 30 in points per game. Has any team fallen from grace this fast?

I worry something is being overlooked. A season like this is toxic to enthusiasm. That sucking sound you hear is what a contracting fan base sounds like. You as a fan deserve so much more than what you’re getting out of these Capitals right now.

I don’t have anything funny to say right now.

Caps at Pens on Thursday. That’ll be fun. Like going to a dinner party at your ex-girlfriend’s new mansion and her boyfriend is a state senator and you’re wearing zubaz and crocs.