Stop showing off, Nabokov. (Photo credit: Nick Wass)

Ed. Note: In our continuing quest to bring you the least crappy product possible, we’d like to welcome Ana Hansen of the blog Hockey Yelling to the RMNB team. Ana, a 22-year-old English major at William & Mary, is witty, creative, and mentally unstable. So uhh you better give her a warm welcome in the comments below or else. You can follow her on Twitter here.

Hello Caps world! In the place of your regularly scheduled coverage you’ve got me tonight. My condolences, but not too many of them, because a hockey game happened, and that’s more important than anything else.

We lost this game, which I hope does not mean that I’m bad luck. I will be carefully monitoring this issue from here on out.

To the game, somewhat reluctantly I guess. We were supposed to win this one. The Islanders are not a particularly lethal team, but when they’re given this much space, even they can stumble into a few goals.

Tavares opened the scoring with a redirection on the PP, and the first person to mention his scoring streak gets a punch in the kisser. Parenteau made it 2-0 on a joint effort from Carlzner, Alzner with the giveaway and Carlson screening his own goalie. You’re welcome, Pareteau. Parenteau converted on the PP for his second of the night but luckily by that point, you were probably too numb to feel it. Caps lose, 3-0. Gross.

Dmitry Orlov in 'The Predator Returns.' (Via carrotbazooka.tumblr.com)

• There was no offense to be found in all of the land. Caps somehow managed to make it to the middle of the game with only 7 SOG. The team went for Starbucks and left the Islanders to do basically whatever they wanted for most of the game. Vokoun wishes he could say he wasn’t used to this.
• Speaking of Tomas Vokoun, he was still pretty sharp in his tenth straight start, goals against regardless. The only problem  for the Vokeswagon anymore, in fact, is the nickname “The Vokeswagon.” This is not intimidating at all. Suggestions are welcome.
• John Carlson and Karl Alzner have been replaced by evil body doubles. I am thinking conspiracy. People in high places are involved.
• Former Cap Milan Jurcina misses his old team terribly and wanted to pitch in somehow. Thanks for the two penalties, Juice! Not like we did anything with them but we appreciate the thought nonetheless.
• The all-net-crash Knuble-Laich-Brouwer line should not be good. This defies every law of reason. Somehow, though, they managed to have some of the only dangerous shifts of the night.
• Evgeni Nabokov was good or whatever, I don’t want to talk about it, it’s not like he had a lot to do. I hope he gets traded to Tampa Bay forever.
• Even during an abysmal first period, Brooks Laich was still man enough to go down and block two shots on the PK. He deserves some loving for that. Ladies, get in line.

This game was such bad news. It was such terrible bad news. Trade Ovechkin. Send Vokoun to the AHL. Burn the Verizon Center.

Joe B suit of the night.

Nope.

You don’t have to be happy about what’s going on right now, I don’t blame you if you’re not. You have to put some kind of emotional investment into being a fan, which means you get a little crushed when your team puts up total nonsense like this. It’s okay to still love them, though. They lost this game, bad–this is a bad place, but they’re not going to be here forever. You’ll be here to see it when it turns around.

Have faith. Montreal tomorrow. Let’s go Caps.

Photo credit: Mike Stobe

After ripping up Carolina like (forgive us) a hurricane, the Caps hopped on plane and flew on up to the Island to take on Tavares & co. The Isles were looking to break a six game losing streak and it didn’t start well for them — it ended differently.

This picture isn't photoshopped. This really happened. (Photo credit: Mike Stobe)

Joel Ward opened the scoring 5:24 into the game when he batted the rebound from John Carlson’s point blast out of the air, did a fancy-dancy 180º spin and fired the puck top shelf on Rick DiPeitro. Later in the period, skating four-on-four, Alex Ovechkin took a twirl behind the net, dished it off to Nicky Backstrom, before one-time’ing number 19′s feed into the back of the net at light-speed.

Just under two minutes into the second, however, the Isles got one back when Frans Nielsen scooped up a big rebound and potted it five-hole on Tomas Vokoun. I’m not saying it was a weak goal, just that it was as soft as my ferrets (they’re really soft, just to make sure we’re totally clear here). Then, in the waning minutes of the frame, Brian Rolston got in on the action with — stop us if you’ve heard this before — a five-hole cheapy on Tomas. The man must be upset Neuvy got a bobblehead today and not him.

The third period… well, it wasn’t pretty for Washington. Six minutes in, the Islanders took their first lead of the night when Matt Martin flipped in the rebound on the backhand while falling over. Graceful. Brooks Laich, however, doesn’t like (it took all our strength not to spell that differently) losing and three minutes later he rifled a wrister top-shelf on the power-play. All tied up. And, for a while, it looked like we might be getting some O.T., but with 106 ticks left on the clock, P.A. Parenteau tapped in — wait for it — the rebound off Milan Jurcina’s shot that squeezed through — wait for it again — Vokoun’s five-hole. Forty-five seconds later John Tavares sealed the deal with the empty-netter. Sigh. Isles down Caps, 5-3.

• So I had it all planned out. My first bullet was going to say I’m not sure which is worse: the Islanders or their non-existent fans. But then Brian Rolston scored in the second period and CSN panned to these adorable little boogers. Ugh. Not helping, guys! Then after Martin scored in the third period, Locker said “it sounds like an Isles playoff game during the eighties in here.” Eff! Okay, forget it.

• Tonight marks the first time the Islanders have beat the Capitals in regulation since Oct. 18, 2007. Ugh.
• Tomas Vokoun was spectacular in the opening period, turning away 11 Islanders shots and giving a tired Caps team a legitimate shot at winning. Then the second and third periods happened and the wheels came completely off the Vokeswagen. On Nielsen’s goal, the defense sagged meekly, but it was Vokoun who gave up a huge rebound and then failed to get his stick down on the backhander that went in. On Rolston’s goal, Tomas once again failed to get his goalie stick in proper position to make an easy save. Finally, on Parenteau’s game-winner, he couldn’t hold onto Milan Jurcina’s shot from the point. Like my faucet in college, Tomas was real leaky. With tonight’s loss, he still holds the bizarre distinction of never winning at Nassau Coliseum.
• Brooks Laich might have scored the game-tying goal, but it was Alex Ovechkin‘s rump which made it happen. As Ovi crossed in front of the net, DePietro lost sight of the puck which allowed Laich to hit the top corner of the net with a perfectly placed wrist shot. Wait, did I really just type that? Shouldn’t there have been 45 fancy passes and then a slap-shot that misses the net and karooms all the way back into their defensive zone? I guess things HAVE changed from last year. And hey, the rest of Alex Ovechkin also played well tonight. His nifty moves in the offensive zone drew the interference minor on Steve Staios which led to Laich’s salvo. His one-time goal during the first period was also made possible because of some awesome cycling between him and Nick Backstrom. I love how Ovechkin’s finding different ways to score and contribute.
• Speaking of Nick Backstrom, with his two assists tonight, he now has 18 points on the year which is good for third place in the NHL. Talk about a bounce back year.
• Dennis Wideman was a -4. Mathieu Perreault was a -3.
• At one point during the first period, Islanders fans were chanting Al Montoya’s name. There’s no punch line. Islanders fans were chanting Al Montoya’s name. How awful must it be to a fan of this team? If the Capitals could have gotten another goal early in the second period, they could have blown this game wide-open. Instead, we’re stuck here wondering what might have been.

Joe B Suit of the Night

If you were wondering why this recap was more awful than usual, Peter was living it up tonight at our expense. (Really? You’re going to diss us for a 10 year high school reunion? I know your friends, Peter. I went to Frederick High too. There’s no way they’re cooler than a Saturday night Islanders game. Oh wait, reading Jane Eyre sober is cooler than writing about a Saturday night Islanders game.) No worries though, he’ll be back Tuesday when the Stars come to town.

The Capitals really need to reflect after this one. Yes, it’s only their third loss of the year, but this is a bad one. The team simply stopped playing in the second period and never was able to regain momentum after that. How much should we blame Boudreau for screwing with the lines and scratching Cody Eakin, a day after scoring his first NHL goal? You tell us in the comments below.

Additional words by Chris Gordon (everything from the bullets up; you know, the parts that don’t require you to know anything).

Weird bounces, Long goal reviews & Floating Pucks. What a fun night. (Photos by Nick Wass)

Funny isn’t it that the Capitals and Bruins will meet twice in the last week of the regular season before playing one another in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If tonight’s game sets a precedence for next week, we’re due for some entertaining hockey.

Tonight’s victory over Boston saw goals from fan favorites Nicky Backstrom, Mike Knuble and Books Laich, who secured the overtime gamewinner. Despite the everpresent physicality of Zdeno Chara’s bleeding nose and the dynamism of Patrice Bergeron, the Caps emerged victorious. Three games or bust.

• Tonight’s line up merits comment. Mike Green deserved his well-earned rest, while Scott Walker returned to active play. Brendan Morrison remains MIA, but we’re in no rush to have him return.
• Actually, nevermind. His replacement at 2nd-line center, Tomas Fleischmann, won a dismal 33% on the faceoff dot. I love the guy, but Flash needs to get his groove back, and it will not be found at center. Or will it?
• Nick Backstrom got three points tonight– a goal and two assists. I mention this not because I’m surprised, but because I am now certain that Nicky is deserving of fame far exceeding that which he is currently granted.
• Is there a player on the Caps roster who plays with more consistent oomph than Brooks “You Can Just Get Lost In His Eyes” Laich? His overtime in-your-face-goal is just another exhibit in the mountain of evidence that Brooks wants to win more than any other player out there. Maybe the Caps were coasting without Brooks, but when he’s around, they go to the net.
• More on that Laich character. We can’t get over the full cage he’s wearing to protect that beautiful chiseled face of man. So when we prompted the ladies if Brooks Laich in a full cage was cute or simply the cutest ever, we got some hilarious responses. Some of our favorites were “more like cant wait for him to get it off to see his face again“, “ADORABLE. he looks like a babyyy“, “Cute, but without it is cutest ever“, “I would say that Laich has trumped Michelangelo’s David…even with the busted face“, “it makes me think of the cone a dog wears so it doesn’t chew its stitches” & “ew“. Awesome.
• John Erskine and Tyler Sloan are mighty fine gentlemen, and I think that I would enjoy a frosty draught with either one, but give me Milan Jurcina or John Carlson any day.
• Ian has repeatedly said that players like David Steckel are crucial to a prosperous postseason.  Judging by Davey’s PK effort tonight, we agree.  On the other hand, Stecks was just as bad as Flash on the faceoff (33%).
• Wouldn’t tomorrow night be wonderfully exciting if “Crazy Legs” Braden Holtby started in net?
• RMNB mathman Neil Greenberg was at the game tonight, but who wasn’t?  How about President Barack Obama, whose first pitch at the Nats game sailed so far wide left that I can already imagine the next batch of Tea Party protest signs.  NO POLITICS, PEOPLE! THIS IS HOCKEY!

Well, we are now down to felt as they say. Three games separate the Washington Capitals from what should be a historic post-season. And don’t say “an historic”– that’s stupid.   While I’m a proponent of the “win everything” philosophy, I’m willing to concede that Bruce Boudreau’s hockey savvy exceeds my own.  Let’s just establish a bit of the big Mo’ before next week. A 10-0 shutout of the Penguins in Braden Holtby’s NHL debut would suffice.

The Washington Capitals added depth on NHL Deadline Day, acquiring forwards Scott Walker and Eric Belanger, and blueliners Joe Corvo and Milan Jurcina, who returns to Washington after being traded, along with then team captain Chris Clark, to the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Despite these moves paying off immediate dividends, questions remain about the Caps goaltending: specifically, is it enough to keep pucks out of the net in the playoffs?

“No matter how fearsome their attack, they’re just OK at keeping pucks out of their net. They’ll enter the playoffs, likely as the top seed in the East, entrusting the most critical position on the ice to the likes of Jose Theodore, Semyon Varlamov and/or Michal Neuvirth.” – NBCSports.com

So what type of goaltending does it take to win the Cup, and do the Caps have it?

If we look at the Stanley Cup winners over the last decade, some patterns emerge:

1. As of 3/5/10, The Caps have a Goals Against per game (GA/Gm) of 2.84, which would be only the third worst of Cup Winning teams since 2000. 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins were at 2.91 and the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes were at 3.17.
2. The 2010 Washington Capitals are scoring machines. Their 4.0 Goals For per game (GF/Gm) would lead all Cup winners since 2000. So while it is true they let goals in the net, they make up for it by burying the biscuit themselves.
3. The expected winning percentage of the 2010 Caps would also be the second best of the Cup teams since 2000. Based on the Pythagorean winning percentage, The Caps are expected to have a win % .652 – despite giving up 2.84 goals per game. Only the 2008 Detroit Red Wings (.651) and the 2001 Colorado Avalanche (.653) come close.

RMNB believes it's found the secret to Jose Theodore's recent success...

Jose Theodore, who I believe has found a real life Hot Tub Time Machine, has shown he is capable of being close to the Jose of 2001-2 when he won the Hart & Vezina Trophies. Exhibit A is his goaltending during the Caps 14 game win streak.

Varlamov is coming back from injury, and his playoff experience from last year will only bolster his confidence going forward.

Caps’ fans should have a deeper concern: the PK:

Since 2000, no Cup winner has had a PK% less than 81.8% (2006 Carolina Hurricanes). 2010 Capitals are currently 78.91%.

But that’s an article for another day.

The trade deadline came and went, and while the Caps made some changes, a lot stayed the same. Most importantly: Hershey was virtually untouched. And it is probably because of this that the Caps didn’t make the “big move” most of the fans thought they would.

Trade Deadline Recap

• 2010 7th rounder for Scott Walker.
• 2010 2nd Rounder for Eric Belanger.
• 2010 6th rounder for Milan Jurcina.
• Brian Pothier, prospect Oskar Osala and 2011 2nd rounder for Joe Corvo.

A theme runs through all the players acquired today: They all have prior experience with Boudreau and/or GMGM.

• Boudreau had Belanger in Lowell.
• Scott Walker once represented himself in contract talks with Vancouver, where George McPhee was the assistant GM.
• I heard Milan Jurcina played for Boudreau AND McPhee (at the same time!), but am still Googling to find out where.
• Joe “Oh No” Corvo the Turnover Machine was coached by Boudreau in AHL.

RW Scott Walker gives the Caps some leadership, some “grit” and 29 games of playoff experience (18 of those coming in 2008-9 with Carolina) for the Cup run. Walker has a respectable 2.33 GAON/60 at even strength on a team that averages 3.14 GA per game.

Eric Belanger (this Belanger, not this Belanger. Sorry ladies.) is a decent two-way 2nd/3rd line Center option on

Eric Belanger is sadly not a model.

pace for career-best numbers in goals and assists. Plus, he brings 30 games of playoff experience. Looks like he and Chimera have some history, where Chimera felt Belanger’s check was dirty and merited a suspension. I don’t expect this to be an issue, but it just shows the comfort level of BB and GMGM to bring a player in with this type of “bad blood.”

Milan Jurcina. Based on Twitter reports, Jurcina was Plan B in case trades for other D-Men fell through. In the end, it’s the devil you know, and the Caps bring back someone that knows the system for the playoff push. Not the “Top-4 D Man” fans were looking for, but a familiar face nonetheless.

And then we have the deal that came in almost at the buzzer, and one that is sure to be debated: Joe Corvo. It is probably a bad omen when one of the first tweets seeks to clarify if Corvo’s nickname was “Oh No” or “Uh Oh”, but I like this trade.  It has nothing to do with him receiving a three-year suspended sentence after pleading guilty in Boston to assaulting a woman in a restaurant when he was with the Manchester Monarchs of the AHL. I like gaining Corvo because he represents an improvement to the defense. Specifically, Corvo plays tougher minutes at even strength than all of the Caps defensemen with the exception of Tom Poti. And Corvo’s GAON/60 of 2.75 is better than Carolina’s 3.14 GA per game – the hallmark of a good defenseman. Some may argue that Pothier, for whom he was traded, has a better GAON/60, but those come against both significantly worse competition and in fewer minutes per game.

RW Scott Walker. Practically a freebie.

All in all, the Caps did not give up much:

Brian Pothier was a defensive non-factor for the club at best, and the Caps certainly upgraded with Corvo. Prospect Oskar Osala had a limited future with the Caps, and now he gets a chance with another club.

A 6th rounder averages 73 games in the NHL with 13 Goals and 20 Assists, for their career. A 7th rounder averages 47GP/7G/13A, and that drops significantly if you pull Henrik Zetterberg‘s numbers out.

The second rounders (in 2010 and 2011) have future value, and an argument has been made that it is advantageous to trade a bona fide NHLer for an unlikely draft pick, but I think it is a smart move for the Caps. They have already bucked the odds with the talent they have in Hershey and South Carolina and can afford to sit out the second round the next two years for a serious run at the Cup.

Right now is like the part of the lap dance right after the song stops:  the anticipation and empty promises are gone, and we’re left with reality.  We’re married to the roster as of 3 PM, and they’ll either take us to the cup or damn near it.

The Russian Machine doesn’t have much to say about the Capitals 2-1 loss the Los Angeles Kings today. It was crap. In fact, we felt this photo of Mike Green pretty much summed it up.

The Caps once again, came out in the first period with absolutely no push. To that effect, they’ve been out scored 6-0 in their past three first periods and out-shot 35-11. (Thanks Capitals Insider)

We want to take the easy road and say “Man, with Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina gone, this team is in absolute disarray. They’ve lost three straight games.” But you’ve got to look deeper than that. If you go by that logic, then the Hershey Bears are 10-1 in their last 11 because they brought Chris Bourque back . The problem is the secondary scoring for this team has been absolutely nonexistent lately and the team has not been playing a full 60 minutes at their level. The lack of intensity from anyone other than the Young Guns is troubling. And honestly, Jason Chimera seems to still be trying to find himself in Bruce Boudreau’s system.

The Capitals look like they’re a step slow. They’re losing battles. And with this being one of the NHL’s most skilled teams, we figure this is a tall-tale sign of either a team losing its focus or is in general tired. Someone needs to start banging into some bodies and create some space for others.

We hope with two home games on the slate this week, the Caps will bear down and play better in front of their own fans. And The Russian Machine Will Even Offer A Bold Prediction: We will be excited to see who will be named Captain in the coming days (Alex Ovechkin For Kapitan!!!) and receive the instant gratification of refocusing the team after soundly defeating the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday Night. Okay guys, make it happen!

Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina in a Blue Jackets Uniform. Weird.

The Washington Capitals made a trade this week, picking up Jason Chimera from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina. Given that I spent all weekend putting together a spreadsheet trying to approximate the Goals Versus Threshold that Puck Prospectus uses to give an idea of a player’s contributions, I thought it would be a good time to put it to use. I wasn’t able to match their GVT exactly, but I got close enough to make the thing potentially viable.

First, on what GVT is:

“To explain in terms already familiar to sports statisticians, GVT is very similar to VORP in baseball: it is the value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement player would have contributed. The fact that GVT is measured in goals is crucial: statistics that divide up “Win Shares”, so that the ratings of a team’s players sum to that team’s number of wins, are very erratic and non-linear, since wins don’t increase or decrease linearly with team caliber. While hockey is ultimately about winning or losing, players’ contributions always come down to scoring goals and preventing them. A player cannot “win” a game, even though he may be put in a situation where scoring a goal or making a key save would create or conserve a win. Each player’s role, no matter his position, is to try and increase the goal differential in favor of his team. An offensive player who scores a hat trick only to see his teammates allow 4 goals against has nevertheless done his job; a goaltender who stops 39 of 40 shots only to lose 1-0 has likewise performed well. Using this standard, all players can be compared by the same yardstick: how much did they help (or harm) their team’s goal differential?…

• GVT is measured in goals. This makes it a convenient unit that hockey fans are already comfortable with.
• GVT compares hockey players of all positions and over any period of time.
• GVT only uses statistics that lead directly to goals. You cannot incorporate goaltender wins into GVT, because they are not a measurement of goals prevented. However, if you can rationally explain what are the odds of a faceoff win (or loss) leading to a goal or goal against, it would be possible to incorporate faceoff wins and losses into GVT, though I have not done so.
• GVT has built-in accounting. The sum of player GVTs on a team equals that team’s GVT plus the replacement level. This is essential, as player statistics often come with caveats. “Kovalchuk scored 43 goals, but he doesn’t play defense and his team isn’t good”. This makes it much easier to measure “how good would this team be replacing player A with player B?” It is also essential in that player success is correlated with team success, which after all is the entire point of the sport.
• GVT automatically normalizes for the strength of the league…

GVT does not measure a player’s talent. The statistic measures a player’s contribution to his team’s goal differential. A goaltender that faces zero shots will have a value of zero, regardless of whether he is Patrick Roy or Andrew Raycroft. Likewise, a player that is injured or gets little ice time will see his GVT reduced accordingly. It also does not take into account environment: a player will score more with better linemates, and I make no attempt to adjust for that…

GVT does not measure intangibles. Things like leadership do exist in hockey, and they do help to make your teammates better. However, there is no way to measure this through statistics, and any attempt to quantify it is futile. In effect, we are not trying to see what information is “hidden” in the statistics; we are simply trying to better characterize the information that is at hand”

Alright, on to the trade!

Jason Chimera
Pos: F
Goals: 8
Assists: 9
Games: 39
Offensive Goals Versus Threshold: 1.0

Not a top scorer by any means, but he’ll add a little bit and was projected by VUKOTA (Puck Prospectus’ projection system) to be at +1.4 OGVT for the season (in 60 games). Depending on who’s playing around him on the Capitals, his scoring may even go up.

Plus/Minus: -7
Defensive Goals Versus Threshold: -0.1

Had a +/- of +8 last year, and -5 the year before that. VUKOTA had him contributing more on defense than on offense with a +2 DGVT. Maybe dial that down a touch rate-wise, but as long as he’s playing more that might be accurate as a raw number.

Overall, Chimera looks like around a 3-4 GVT player. With 6 goals being a win, and one win being worth about $3 M on the open market, that would make Chimera worth about $1.5 to $2 M. He’s going to be paid $1.875 M both this season and next, so his contract looks just about on the button. One could theoretically take into account the amount by which acquiring Chimera increased the Capitals’ chances of making the playoffs (where is certainly worth something), but I think the effect would be negligible.

Clark wasn’t expected to add much on offense – VUKOTA projected him at just 0.1 OGVT – but it seems he’s done even less than that.

Plus/Minus: -4
Defensive Goals Versus Threshold: -0.8

He was projected to have a +0.6 DGVT this season.

Overall, the 33 year-old isn’t a major contributor to the team. He makes $2.63 M this season and $2.63 M more next season before his contract is up, so in some respects it’s a plus just to get that off the books.

The guy isn’t exactly a scoring defenseman. He had just 3 goals and 11 assits last season, and is likely around zero with the OGVT in the near future.

Plus/Minus: 0
Defensive Goals Versus Threshold: -1.0

VUKOTA had projected Jurcina to be a +2.9 DGVT player this season, and with numbers this small the precision becomes an issue. Maybe say he’s a +2 DGVT (for a full season) guy going forward.

Overall, Jurcina hasn’t played all that well and despite his size isn’t an impact defenseman. He’s making $1.375 M this season, and will be an unrestricted free agent. At -2 Goals Versus Threshold, Jurcina wouldn’t actually be worth anything. As a 2 GVT player (all on defense), he would be worth about $1 M. Therefore he was just worth his salary at best, and isn’t a loss to the team.