Back in October, when Alex Ovechkin used to score goals, I ran a simulation estimating his chances at getting 50 in 50. Yea, he really did score goals back then enough to inspire me to write that. The simulation had him scoring on average 42 goals (plus or minus 8 ) in an 82-game season, and while it seemed far-fetched at the time, here we are staring at a 30-goal season out of the Great 8. So why not see how absurd possible it would be for him to get the Ovechtrick.
For those of you that missed it, an Ovechtrick is a 9-goal game scored by Ovechkin. Those muckity mucks at Verizon are clever, eh?
To estimate his chances I will again use a Monte Carlo simulation to run 10,000 “games.” It starts with me using the shots on goal and shooting percentage during the regular season for Ovechkin during this season and the last two. Then I figure out how frequently these events occurred and let lady luck work her fickle magic.
Editor’s note: Reader Jerry Moxley is just your average, amateur hockey player, but he has got one of the greatest “meet your hero” stories we’ve ever read.
If you can make a living doing something you love, consider yourself lucky. I was able to take my interest in television and make a career out of it, but I put on my hockey skates too late to become more than a beer-league weekend warrior. With the birth of my second daughter, I decided to take more work on the side to pay the bills. One day, through Russian Machine Never Breaks and Carlyn Davis Casting, I learned that there was a commercial being filmed at my home rink in Laurel, MD that needed ice rink extras. I emailed the casting agency with the expectation that of a little extra money and maybe a spot in a blurry background somewhere. It turned out to be something bigger.
Russian Machine Never Breaks is not associated with the Washington Capitals; Monumental Sports, the NHL, or its properties. Not even a little bit.
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