It’s a red letter day.

The three days since the Capitals 7-0 loss to the Rangers have been the most tumultuous the franchise has seen since the playoffs. In the interim we’ve talked about getting a new goalie, not getting a new goalie, dumping Bruce Boudreau, not dumping Bruce Boudreau, the curse of HBO, statistics so grim they seem actuarial, the colloquial and literal meanings of “going dark”, and the faintest glimmer of hope.

Tonight is the most important night of the Capitals’ season so far. Facing off against the Ducks at 7 PM, the Caps finally have a chance to end their six-game losing streak. At 10 PM, HBO will air the first episode of 24/7, reportedly including the team’s nadir in the form of Bruce Boudreau’s profanity-laden timeout speech at MSG. By this time tomorrow, we should have answers to all our questions:

1. Is the team healthy?
2. Have they recovered their offensive mojo?
3. Have they grouted the cracks in the defense?
4. Are they traumatized by their recent misfortune or resilient?
5. Have they gotten Joe Beninati to burn that cursed green suit?

And most important of all: will they play the sport like they love it?

* * *

Fans, I urge you: despair not. This really is the team you thought it was after all. Led by the most dynamic and exciting player in the sport, the Washington Capitals have within themselves an bottomless font of great hockey. To tap into it, they need only summon up what Brooks Laich called passion and hard work, but what you and I know is just loving and enjoying the game while you’re in it.

The Panic Protocol was a gag, but you already knew that. The world really is not doom and gloom, and these are not the end days of the Boudreau administration, merely its greatest challenge. For you and me, this is just the story we’ll retell in nostalgic tones between generous swigs from the Mug of Victory. Sometime in June.

That was when the team had its back against the wall, an army of cameras peering at it, and a raincloud constantly overhead. But they turned it around. By playing the kind of hockey we always knew they could.

You and me: we’re the stalwarts. We might waver and we might clap sarcastically from time to time, but we do not falter. Not ever.

Some define faith as an irrational belief, but there is nothing irrational about our belief in the team. They’re the best, and now they’re going to prove it.

Semyon “the Savior” Varlamov starts in net. Mike “Game Over” Green is back in action. The “heart and soul” of this team, Matt Bradley, will serve on the third line. Hershey hero Andrew Gordon is in town. And Captain Alex Ovechkin leads them into battle.

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

Photo credit: Mitchell Layton

Quite the depressing week. We don’t score. We got blown out. People are revolting. He-who-can’t-be-named is now front and center on our site. Despite it all, I still maintain we shouldn’t panic.

This week I am going to take a break from individual scoring chances and look at the team as a whole. I wrote over at WaPo that this is just a string of bad luck and wanted to go a little more in depth. As you probably know by now, I use a specific definition of what I consider a scoring chance based on shot quality data and log everyone who is on the ice at the time using the script from Vic Ferrari. You can find the spreadsheet online that summarizes each week, and I promise I will get it up to date in the next few days.

First, I want everyone to see how the Caps have been converting their scoring chances to goals. Or rather how they haven’t. Convert percentage is simply goals-for divided by scoring chances-for. I’ll use a 10-game moving average to help smooth out the highs and lows. Period one on the chart is the average conversion percentage of games 1 through 10, while period two is the average of games 2 through 11, and so on. Stats from the Nov 27 game vs CAR are not included due to NHL.com errors.

As you can see, the Caps had a decent goal conversion rate which skyrocketed (35.7% vs TBL) and then poof! Offense gone. Hello 6-game losing streak.

Here it is in 5-game increments, except for the last six games which I grouped together. Remember, not all goals are scored from “dangerous” scoring areas, so they aren’t logged as chances.

See? They are converting at almost a third of what they consistently did in the games earlier. Plus, they are getting three to five more scoring chances per game. Remember, scoring chances are high quality shots, so it is not as if those extra chances are 60 foot bombs from the point – they are from the “dangerous” areas on the ice.

Now I ask you: if a team is getting more chances per game and is converting on a third less than usual (including a game which saw three shots hit the post in two minutes), does it really mean the coach should be fired?

Didn’t think so.

I’ll meet you at the bottom if there really is one / They always told me, “when you hit it, you’ll know it” / But I’ve been falling so long, it’s like gravity is gone, and I’m just floating
- Drive-by Truckers

RECAP: Six losses in a row. The season’s fourth shutout. Bad defense, worse offense. Seven goals against. Ovechkin fought. Caps and Rangers tied at 19 scoring chances. Hannan minus-7 SC differential. Hendricks minus-5.[END RECAP.]

Here’s a list of worthless excuses:

• The flu has ravaged the roster.
• Jeff Schultz broke his thumb.
• HBO’s cameras are scrutinizing.
• Last year’s playoffs loss has the team biding time until the postseason.

Photo credit: Scott Levy

The Capitals are no longer a super-talented team with Stanley Cup aspirations. They’re not that offensively loaded crew who mysteriously loses games to lesser teams in freak occurrences. The so-called “bad bounces” cannot sustain for two weeks, but bad habits sure as heck can. Yes, the losing streak is awful, but the team hasn’t played their right brand of hockey since March. Back then, there were no un-winnable games. Now the opposite seems true.

So we’re downgrading the Caps. They are now a losing hockey team with mediocre talent. It will remain this way until they can prove otherwise. Neil and the numbers say that a loss like this should happen 0.02% of the time, so tonight is the freakiest of freak occurrences. right? But doesn’t it feel like this slump could go on forever?

Photo credit: Jim McIsaac

Mike Vogel has been the voice of reason: “Don’t panic,” he says like the late, great Douglas Adams. But that’s no longer possible for us. Here we go.

Initiate Panic Protocol

ARTICLE I:  No more Caps jerseys, t-shirts, hats, underpants, or toast until they win. No rocking the red unless you’re at the game.  If your hair is red, dye it black. Send the bill to Ian; he’ll reimburse you.
ARTICLE II: Just to be  safe, you should probably un-friend all redheads on Facebook.
ARTICLE III:  Firing the cursed, winless Scott Hannan is not enough. He must be flogged and exiled from D.C. Salt the earth.
ARTICLE IV: Joe Beninati will publicly burn his ghastly, unlucky suit.
ARTICLE V: Set aside 10-15 minutes every day for silent, uncontrollable sobbing.
ARTICLE VI: Morrissey’s Your Arsenal is the only music you can listen to. Two and a Half Men is the only TV show you can watch. Mozzarella sticks and soda shall be your only nourishment.
ARTICLE VII: No more uppercase (formerly known as “capital”) letters. All lowercase. This post is exempted from Article VII.
ARTICLE VIII: As of Monday night, RMNB is going dark.

Joe B must burn this suit of the night

That’s right, people. We’re turning the lights off at RMNB until the Capitals end their winless streak. It’s a drastic measure, but it’s necessary.

We’re panicking because something’s gotta change. And that change doesn’t mean personnel or coaching or systems. No one is Graham Gano here. We just need good habits and superior effort from our heroes. We need them to be the team we love, not the disaffected clowns who are apparently just killing time until the playoffs. If the Capitals can crash the net, fight in the corners, clear the puck out of the zone, and fight off the forecheck, everything will be alright.

Here’s King Cnut the Great, fighting off the tide all by himself.

Everything will be alright.

Additional reporting by Neil Greenberg.